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Dylan Difford

@dylandifford.bsky.social

15K followers 290 following 2.1K posts

YouGov data journalist • Elections, polls, voting systems • "I like people, places and things" • [email protected]

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Dylan Difford @dylandifford.bsky.social · Aug 9

A bit behind schedule, but how voters moved in the year since the 2024 election.

Labour facing same splintering of the last govt: a significant bloc crossing floor to primary electoral opposition, with a numerically larger chunk moving to opponents on same side of spectrum, plus many 'don't knows'.

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Dylan Difford @dylandifford.bsky.social · 4h

I think LDs also benefit a little in this case due to the Oz-style 'forced ranking' format of the question. The number of Cons ranking them 1st or 2nd is higher than the number with a positive view of the party, so suspect they're getting ranked second by those Cons who don't like any other parties.

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Dylan Difford @dylandifford.bsky.social · 4h

There's also a little bit of it with the Lib Dems too, though the gap is smaller.

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Dylan Difford @dylandifford.bsky.social · 4h

It's a pretty consistent pattern in 'do you like' versus 'would you consider voting for' questions with the Greens, with the latter often about 7-10pts lower. I read it as a sort of psychological block that amounts to 'I think they're good guys, but not credible'.

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Dylan Difford @dylandifford.bsky.social · 1d

Quite the age break.

YouGov @yougov.co.uk · 1d

If you were offered food that you did not like, for reasons unrelated to allergies or dietary restrictions, would you eat it?

Eat it all: 5%
Eat some of it: 22%
Refuse it with an excuse: 11%
Refuse it and say why: 57%

yougov.co.uk/topics/consu...

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Dylan Difford @dylandifford.bsky.social · 1d

Considering that political and media elites in countries with PR still seem to have a hard time understanding voter flows, I'm going to say it's impossible to get most journalists to understand the ecological fallacy.

Dylan Difford @dylandifford.bsky.social · 1d

Sort of depends on how the new councils' elections fall. At present, May 2029 would just be the councils elected this year, but most of them are scheduled for restructuring at some point. Plus, there aren't a huge number of major LD gains left in those areas.

Reposted by Dylan Difford

YouGov @yougov.co.uk · 2d

Labour voters are significantly more likely to trust the Greens than Labour on the environment, poverty, keeping promises and protecting minority groups

yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

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Reposted by Dylan Difford

YouGov @yougov.co.uk · 2d

Conservative voters are more likely to trust Reform UK on immigration than the Conservatives, with both parties having similar levels of trust among Tory voters on keeping promises, poverty, crime, representing people like you and the NHS

yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

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Reposted by Dylan Difford

YouGov @yougov.co.uk · 2d

Reform UK are the party Britons most associate with being patriotic, but also being weird and extreme

Extreme: 58% (+50 lead)
Offer change: 37% (+26)
Setting agenda: 36% (+27)
Patriotic: 35% (+27)
Likely win next election: 35% (+20)
Weird: 35% (+15)
Understands problems: 25% (+15)
Normal: 17% (+4)

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Reposted by Dylan Difford

YouGov @yougov.co.uk · 2d

Britons are most likely to see the Tories as best representing older people

Conservatives: 29% (21% of over 65s)
Reform UK: 15% (16%)
Labour: 5% (4%)
Lib Dems: 4% (4%)
Greens: 1% (1%)

None: 23% (36%)

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Dylan Difford @dylandifford.bsky.social · 3d

Populism is cross-cutting, in that it can be applied to any 'core' ideology. Fundamentally, the people and elites in both Corbyn's socialist populism and Farage's reactionary populism play the same roles within the ideology, even if articulated for different reasons and for different policies.

Dylan Difford @dylandifford.bsky.social · 3d

"No other party anywhere in the world", except for several other parties in the UK, and every other democracy that has some form of party conference.

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Dylan Difford @dylandifford.bsky.social · 3d

You can question the sincerity of it as held by populist politicians, but rhetorically all forms of populism are at their core about the pure people vs the corrupt elites.

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Dylan Difford @dylandifford.bsky.social · 3d

I mean, yes. Populism is most fundamentally the belief 'the people' (as defined by the speaker) know better than 'the elites' (also defined by the speaker), while elitism is the opposite.

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Reposted by Dylan Difford

Dylan Difford @dylandifford.bsky.social · 6d

It's a remarkably persistent idea that loads of remaining Tories are just waiting to make the switch, but it's just not true. Just 1 in 8 still loyal Tories have an outright positive view of the Lib Dems or would consider voting for them. They're ideologically miles away from the Lib Dems.

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Dylan Difford @dylandifford.bsky.social · 3d

Also, crucially, the voters he's most trying to target (24Con -> Ref defectors) don't particularly dislike Badenoch (being a rare she has a positive favourability rating among), they just much prefer Nigel Farage, and it's hard to see how he changes that balance.

Dylan Difford @dylandifford.bsky.social · 4d

Also, "on what basis" is a perfectly reasonable response to the question. You can admire something in one respect and not do so in many others.

Dylan Difford @dylandifford.bsky.social · 4d

Having been in double-digits, the three-week average for Green -> Other defections (which was clearly a 'ghost' for Your Party) has fallen to just 3%. Safe to say the enthusiasm for Your Party has dropped off.

YouGov @yougov.co.uk · 4d

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (5-6 October 2025)

Reform UK: 27% (-2 from 28-29 Sept)
Labour: 20% (-2)
Conservatives: 17% (+1)
Lib Dems: 17% (+2)
Greens: 12% (+1)
SNP: 4% (+1)

yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...

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Dylan Difford @dylandifford.bsky.social · 4d

Ultimately, if you pay someone to fix a hole in your roof, you don't go "thanks for fixing the hole" if they haven't really started yet, and you'd be a little irritated if they then went "but I have painted your garage door".

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Dylan Difford @dylandifford.bsky.social · 4d

Many of the 'achievement' policies are also at the legislative or early implementation stages. You can't expect reward for that, when it hasn't actually made a difference yet.

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Dylan Difford @dylandifford.bsky.social · 4d

Rail nationalisation, for instance, is only an achievement if you thinking government ownership is an end in itself. That's the view of very few voters, even those who say they're supportive. They see it as a means to deliver lower fares and better service; without that, it's a *failure*.

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Dylan Difford @dylandifford.bsky.social · 4d

Once again, though, this is the problem with lists of the government's achievements. They're by-and-large secondary concerns, often that haven't been implemented yet, that don't deliver on substantive improvements on cost of living or public services, i.e. what Labour voters felt they were promised.

Adam Payne @adampayne26.bsky.social · 4d

From Peter Kellner's latest substack:

Of 560 Labour voters present and recent past (switched since '24), *not one* said any of the following when asked about gov's best achievements

Some obv will be conscious of these things, but Labour still has a big problem, he writes: "voters aren’t hearing"

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Dylan Difford @dylandifford.bsky.social · 5d

It's the old thinking "doing popular things is electorally good" rather than "doing good things might make you electorally popular".

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Reposted by Dylan Difford

YouGov @yougov.co.uk · 5d

Political favourability ratings, among Conservative members

Robert Jenrick: 73% favourable
Kemi Badenoch: 70%
James Cleverly: 70%
Rishi Sunak: 66%
Mel Stride: 65%
Jeremy Hunt: 65%
Boris Johnson: 61%
Priti Patel: 60%
Nigel Farage: 53%
Donald Trump: 42%
Liz Truss: 34%

yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

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Reposted by Dylan Difford

YouGov @yougov.co.uk · 5d

A quarter of Conservative members think the party's best realistic outcome for the next election is third place, or worse

Winning a majority: 14%
Winning most seats: 21%
Avoid falling to third place: 34%
Avoid falling to fourth place: 20%
Not being wiped out: 6%

yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

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