Tim Bale
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timbale.bsky.social
Tim Bale
@timbale.bsky.social
28K followers 1K following 3.3K posts
Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University of London & author of The Conservative Party after Brexit: Turmoil and Transformation (now out in paperback). The bits and pieces I do for websites and newspapers turn up eventually at https://proftimbale.com
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timbale.bsky.social
Proofing 'The British General Election of 2024'. Here's Nigel Farage on election night 😆:

"If we had got 25 [seats] we wouldn’t have been entirely sure who or what we got. But we have five very solid sensible people who will be able to really push on … There will be no embarrassments...."
November 24, 2025 at 12:34 PM
timbale.bsky.social
(Cough) May even be available for Christmas for all I know!
Front cover of Ford, Bale, Jennings and Surridge, 'The British General Election of 2024'.
November 24, 2025 at 8:04 AM
timbale.bsky.social
One of those things that remind you that you are - reassuringly - small and meaningless in the bigger scheme of things. (h/t @theobserveruk.bsky.social)
Roughly 4.5 billion years ago, the ancient planet Theia smashed into the Earth and some of the debris entered its orbit. This is the most widely accepted theory of how the moon came to be, although scientists have long wondered about the origin of Theia. A new study concludes it was probably formed in the inner solar system, between the Earth and the Sun. Studying fragments of Theia found on Earth, the researchers discovered that the two planets were built from the same materials. This explains why the moon’s chemical composition closely resembles the mantle of the Earth. Cosmic collisions happened a lot five billion years ago, when the solar system was busy and chaotic. They became less frequent after the planets settled into steady orbits, although simulations indicate that the Earth has a 1 per cent chance of crashing into Venus or Mars in three to four billion years.
November 24, 2025 at 7:15 AM
timbale.bsky.social
Headline still there this morning. Some newspapers will be chuffed. Won't stop them waging war on the Beeb, of course.
November 21, 2025 at 7:25 AM
timbale.bsky.social
“The wrong people are cheering”. Dora Gaitskell, 1962.
November 20, 2025 at 5:59 PM
timbale.bsky.social
Important question: interesting answer. "What a decade of research reveals about why people don’t trust media in the digital age" (theconversation.com/what-a-decad...)
Focus group participants told me and my colleagues over many hours of discussions that they see mainstream journalism as being bound up with a political system that is failing. For example, journalists may positively report percentage points of economic growth and demand sensible spending plans, but many people simply don’t believe things will get better. In our most recent study, which analysed media content and audience reception in relation to the cost of living crisis (and will be published as a book in 2026), we found that journalists, in line with politicians, reported the crisis as a short-term shock, temporarily raising food and energy prices. But our participants understood the crisis as one of long-term decline in their communities and standard of living. In other words, there is a disconnect between the priorities and beliefs of journalists and their audiences. This disconnect was evident across all demographic groups studied – yet not all are affected to the same degree. Our findings point to a correlation between those most disaffected with the political system – particularly those really struggling – and the likelihood of investing trust in alternative “news” sources.
November 17, 2025 at 6:40 AM
timbale.bsky.social
Crowlink.
November 15, 2025 at 10:19 AM
timbale.bsky.social
Wet grass never tasted or sounded so good!
November 15, 2025 at 9:20 AM
timbale.bsky.social
@martinrowson.bsky.social nails it - and them. (www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...)
Starmer, Reeves, and McSweeney painting themselves (via St George's flags) into a corner in a locked room.
November 15, 2025 at 7:40 AM
timbale.bsky.social
Leaf etched on a pavement by nothing but the autumn rain.
November 14, 2025 at 5:39 PM
timbale.bsky.social
🤦
November 14, 2025 at 3:37 PM
timbale.bsky.social
Read 'em and weep. (www.nber.org/system/files...)
This paper examines the impact of the UK's decision to leave the European Union (Brexit) in 2016. Using almost a decade of data since the referendum, we combine simulations based on macro data with estimates derived from micro data collected through our Decision Maker Panel survey. These estimates suggest that by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time. We estimate that investment was reduced by between 12% and 18%, employment by 3% to 4% and productivity by 3% to 4%. These large negative impacts reflect a combination of elevated uncertainty, reduced demand, diverted management time, and increased misallocation of resources from a protracted Brexit process. Comparing these with contemporary forecasts – providing a rare macro example to complement the burgeoning microliterature of social science predictions – shows that these forecasts were accurate over a 5-year horizon, but they underestimated the impact over a decade.
November 14, 2025 at 3:18 PM
timbale.bsky.social
The pipes, the (pan) pipes they're calling. Oh Danny Boy....
November 13, 2025 at 6:27 PM
timbale.bsky.social
Never change, ConHome, never change.
November 13, 2025 at 4:14 PM
timbale.bsky.social
Don't agree with @stephenkb.bsky.social about "Die, My Love", which I thought was a brilliant if harrowing portrait of (post-natal) depression. But his newsletter take (www.ft.com/content/e27c...) on how much trouble the PM is in is a work of (domestic-appliance) genius.
Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour. https://www.ft.com/content/e27cc354-90ef-491a-baa6-6844859bf2f9 The best way to understand the mood of the average Labour MP is to imagine that Keir Starmer is an old battered kitchen appliance. An oven that has seen better days: it makes odd noises, it is not as reliable as it ideally should be, and sooner or later it is obviously going to give up the ghost. Most Labour MPs are doing the political equivalent of browsing John Lewis and wondering whether they should go for a Bosch or a Miele, but they don’t have a committed preference for any of the options.
November 13, 2025 at 11:56 AM
timbale.bsky.social
Presumably his card now says Basildon & Billericay 😆
November 12, 2025 at 3:36 PM
timbale.bsky.social
Hard not to think of Labour, Your Party and the Greens when reading Robert Michels (1911) "Political Parties: A Sociological Study of the Oligarchical Tendencies of Modern Democracy"
when democracies have gained a certain stage of development, they undergo a gradual transformation adopting the aristocratic spirit, and in many cases also the aristocratic forms, against which at the outset they struggled so fiercely. Now new accusers arise to denounce the traitors; after an era of glorious combats and of inglorious power, they end by fusing with the old dominant class; whereupon once more they are in their turn attacked by fresh opponents who appeal to the name of democracy. It is probably that this cruel game will continue without end. (p. 371)
November 12, 2025 at 11:59 AM
timbale.bsky.social
Biased sample maybe, but top ten from its website doesn't suggest the BBC Trump thing is getting a massive amount of traction this lunchtime.
November 11, 2025 at 12:37 PM
timbale.bsky.social
@bjennings90.bsky.social absolutely nails it. (www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...)
David Attenborough describes how, after smelling blood, the predators (the right wing media) circle their prey (the BBC), with Trump as the savannah sun.
November 11, 2025 at 6:58 AM
timbale.bsky.social
I'm so old I remember PEx starting out as a Cameroon, liberal Tory, modernising think tank. It's a funny old world, as Lady Thatcher once said.
November 10, 2025 at 12:40 PM
timbale.bsky.social
As per, @andrewrawnsley.bsky.social nails it observer.co.uk/news/columni...
The conclusion to be drawn from all this is not – sorry, Zack, and regrets, Zarah – that tomorrow belongs to the Polanski or Sultana versions of the radical left. The message from America is a reminder that charismatic leadership counts. So does knowing your electorate and understanding how to connect with it. Talking to voters about what they care about in language they understand is essential. And the price of putting a roof over your head and food on the table has tremendous electoral potency when people are struggling to do both. Zohran Mamdani may be a shiny new thing, but the moral of these elections is as old as the Appalachian mountains.
November 9, 2025 at 8:59 AM
timbale.bsky.social
A propos of nothing, the young woman remembering Benjamin Disraeli in this 1885 painting by Frank Bramley is the spitting image of the ("Strike") actor, Holliday Grainger.
November 8, 2025 at 8:35 AM
timbale.bsky.social
Inch by inch, things are getting worse not better? www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
November 6, 2025 at 3:22 PM
timbale.bsky.social
Bohemian Catsody

(Birthday card c/o emotional-rescue.com)
November 4, 2025 at 9:12 AM
timbale.bsky.social
Is there's anybody in the broadcast media who hasn't been taking it seriously (if not assuming it's virtually nailed-on) for literally months?
Article by Nick Robinson, saying it's time the country took the prospect of Farage as PM seriously.
November 3, 2025 at 6:21 PM