Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Kimberly Clausing

@kclausing.bsky.social

11K followers 230 following 250 posts

Economist; Professor @law.ucla.edu; senior fellow @piie.com; former tax DAS at Treasury; Author, Open: The Progressive Case for Free Trade, Immigration, and Global Capital

Videos

Kimberly Clausing is an American economist. She is the Eric M. Zolt Chair in Tax Law and Policy at the UCLA School of Law and a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. From 2021 to 2022, she was the deputy assistant secretary for tax analysis at the United States Department of the Treasury. Clausing is known for her work on international trade and tax policy, particularly the taxation of multinational corporations. .. more

Economics 51%

Business 36%

Posts Media Videos Starter Packs

Reposted by Kimberly A. Clausing

NBER @nber.org · 3d

Assessing how the greater reliance of fiscal policy on tariffs will affect the US tax system, from @kclausing.bsky.social and Maurice Obstfeld https://www.nber.org/papers/w34192

1 4 11

Reposted by Kimberly A. Clausing

Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 3d

"While maintaining tariff rates at summer 2025 levels would generate large government revenues, such broad tariffs have significant downsides: Efficiency losses would approach one-third of revenues raised..."
@kclausing.bsky.social #EconSky
www.nber.org/papers/w34192

. Tariffs as Fiscal Policy
Kimberly A. Clausing, Maurice Obstfeld #34192

Abstract:
The year 2025 brought a remarkable shift in the role of tariffs in the US economy, as the Trump administration simultaneously escalated the use of broad tariffs and ensured that Congress enacted large income tax cuts. This fiscal switch has important implications for the US tax system. While maintaining tariff rates at summer 2025 levels would generate large government revenues, such broad tariffs have significant downsides: Efficiency losses would approach one-third of revenues raised, the tax system would be less progressive, and there would be serious tax administration concerns. The fiscal shift also has significant macroeconomic implications, although probably not the intended ones. Broad tariffs generate a large negative supply shock, simultaneously raising prices and reducing macroeconomic activity.

1 13 26

Reposted by Stephen M. Walt, Kim L. Scheppele, Lisa W. Fazio , and 24 more Stephen M. Walt, Kim L. Scheppele, Lisa W. Fazio, Norbert Schwarz, Nancy Kanwisher, Brendan Nyhan, Joshua S. Weitz, Tom Clark, Scott L. Greer, Steven S. Smith, Martin Paul Eve, Charles West, Elaine Treharne, Bonnie Honig, James Grimmelmann, Robert C. Richards, David R. Miller, Jacob T. Levy, Margot C. Finn, Michael Jones‐Correa, Kate Starbird, Josh Pasek, Georg Weizsäcker, Robert L. Tsai, Charles T. Mathewes, Adam Sacarny, Kimberly A. Clausing

Joey Fishkin @fishkin.bsky.social · 5d

I thought I'd put the administration's proposed "compact" with universities in context, so I wrote the blog post below.

It's especially for journalists covering this story!

Many details about how the compact itself works and why the administration has retreated to this strategy.

Balkinization: The Art of Replacing the Law with the Deal

A group blog on constitutional law, theory, and politics

balkin.blogspot.com

12 260 540

Reposted by Kimberly A. Clausing

John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 8d

Great paper measuring the current costs of climate inaction in the U.S. @kclausing.bsky.social, @knittelmit.bsky.social, and @cwolfram.bsky.social find that wildfire smoke and higher insurance drive household costs more than direct temperature-related effects, both for costs and mortality risks.

1 5 9

Reposted by Kimberly A. Clausing

Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 9d

Happy fiscal new year! Off to a rough start 🥲

7 53

Kimberly Clausing @kclausing.bsky.social · 14d

(7/7) For more on a comparison of relevant climate policy actions for the United States, see this recent work:

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

ceepr.mit.edu/wp-content/u...

Kimberly Clausing @kclausing.bsky.social · 14d

(6/7) While costs are relatively modest so far, the costs of climate inaction are likely to rise steeply in the years ahead, illustrating the importance of climate action. Even focusing *solely* on US benefits, many climate policy interventions will have benefits that exceed their costs.

1 4

Kimberly Clausing @kclausing.bsky.social · 14d

(5/7) Further, climate policy *inaction* is regressive, harming poorer counties and households disproportionately. Poorer counties are more exposed to risks such as wildfire particulates, and the higher costs of home insurance and cooling are a larger share of income for poorer households.

1 5

Kimberly Clausing @kclausing.bsky.social · 14d

(4/7) In the United States, natural disasters are far more consequential than heat, for both costs and mortality risks. Increased particulate matter from smoke causes more deaths than heat (as cold deaths fall); home insurance price increases are more important than higher cooling costs.

1 4

Kimberly Clausing @kclausing.bsky.social · 14d

(3/7) When it comes to climate change, “blue” counties and “red” counties suffer similarly, with slightly higher costs for Trump-voting counties in comparison to Harris-voting counties.

1 3

Kimberly Clausing @kclausing.bsky.social · 14d

(2/7) Guided by the literature, we examine several key vectors through which climate inaction affects households. Overall, household damages total nearly $600 by one estimate, and damages reach about $900 for ten percent of households.

1 2 3

Reposted by Robert Wolfe, John Bistline, Antonio Fatás

Kimberly Clausing @kclausing.bsky.social · 14d

🧵 (1/7) With @knittelmit.bsky.social and @cwolfram.bsky.social, happy to announce our new paper on “Who Bears the Burden of Climate Inaction?”, just posted for BPEA @brookings.edu.

We find large climate cost impacts that vary by both geography and income.

www.brookings.edu/articles/who...

5 30 76

Kimberly Clausing @kclausing.bsky.social · 15d

(8/8) Such broad tariffs are also quite challenging for the macroeconomy, as they entail a large negative supply shock. Further, tariffs are likely to harm both the US investment climate and US manufacturing.

For more, read the paper!
www.piie.com/publications...

Tariffs as Fiscal Policy

The year 2025 brought a remarkable shift in the role of tariffs in the US economy, as the Trump administration simultaneously escalated the use of broad tariffs and ensured that Congress enacted large...

www.piie.com

Reposted by Aaron Sojourner

Kimberly Clausing @kclausing.bsky.social · 15d

(7/8) Together with the OBBBA, this fiscal switch of lower income tax revenues, higher tariff revenues, and spending cuts targeting poorer Americans will leave most Americans with lower after-tax incomes.

1 5 18

Reposted by Daniel W. Drezner, Robert Wolfe, Simon Lester

Kimberly Clausing @kclausing.bsky.social · 15d

(6/8) In terms of progressivity, tariffs are far less progressive than the income tax; they harm poor and middle-class Americans more than rich Americans for the simple reason that they fall on consumption, not savings, and savings rates increase with income.

2 13 28

Kimberly Clausing @kclausing.bsky.social · 15d

(5/8) In terms of efficiency, tariffs perform poorly relative to other tax instruments, for reasons discussed at length in the paper. At current levels, efficiency losses approach one third of revenue raised.

1 1 7

Kimberly Clausing @kclausing.bsky.social · 15d

(4/8) Once accounting for mechanical offsets, our revenue findings are compatible with recent 10-year estimates of tariff revenues, but readers should note these studies are not strictly comparable, and exemptions and evasion might reduce revenues further.

1 4

Kimberly Clausing @kclausing.bsky.social · 15d

(3/8) In terms of revenue, we calculate tariff “Laffer curves” under multiple modeling assumptions, finding that tariff revenues peak at a level far short of what it would take to replace (or even dramatically reduce) income tax revenues.

1 5

Kimberly Clausing @kclausing.bsky.social · 15d

(2/8) While tariffs have long been employed for various narrow aims, their use in today’s US economy is far more significant. Tariffs are a tax. In our paper, we evaluate the use of tariffs by broad tax policy criteria: revenue, efficiency, progressivity, and tax administration.

1 5

Reposted by Robert Wolfe, Simon Lester

Kimberly Clausing @kclausing.bsky.social · 15d

🧵 (1/8) My new working paper with Maurice Obstfeld, “Tariffs as Fiscal Policy”, was just posted today @piie.com. Within, we evaluate the new role that tariffs are playing in the US economy.

www.piie.com/publications...

2 18 41

Kimberly Clausing @kclausing.bsky.social · 20d

Lovely piece on the importance of conversation across political divides.

wapo.st/4gAmDHg

Column | A dying man said he found the key to happiness. Science backs him up.

Ted Pellegatta was a MAGA supporter beloved by liberals in Sperryville, Virginia, whose friends transcended political allegiances.

wapo.st

1 3

Reposted by Aaron Sojourner, Kimberly A. Clausing

Brendan Duke @brendanvduke.bsky.social · 21d

The Trump Administration’s continued efforts to break the 2025 funding deal reached in March are seriously undermining efforts to reach a funding agreement for 2026 because lawmakers need to know if they reach a deal, it will be kept. 🧵

3 22 53

Kimberly Clausing @kclausing.bsky.social · 22d

With international efforts more difficult than ever, it is essential that willing jurisdictions buttress climate cooperation.

A big shout out re. this new & important report, from a team led by @cwolfram.bsky.social. I was honored to be part of the working group.

Read her thread, then the report!

Catherine Wolfram @cwolfram.bsky.social · 23d

I'm delighted to announce the release of the Flagship Report of the Global Climate Policy Project at Harvard and MIT Working Group on Climate Coalitions on "Building a Climate Coalition: Aligning Carbon Pricing, Trade, and Development."

ceepr.link/3VmgC7g

A 🧵 on what we do/find:

ceepr.link

Reposted by Kimberly A. Clausing

Catherine Wolfram @cwolfram.bsky.social · 23d

ceepr.link

1 8 31

Reposted by Peter Holmes, Kimberly A. Clausing

Scott Lincicome @scottlincicome.bsky.social · 26d

"Lesotho Sends Trade Delegation to US to Plead for Lower Tariffs" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
The country ranks 167th in gdp per capita (PPP); has 40% of its population living in poverty; and has 24-28% unemployment.

Shameful stuff.

1 29 98

Reposted by Kimberly A. Clausing

Kyle Meng @kylemeng.com · 29d

Today marks a major development in U.S. climate policy.

Gov. Newsom, the CA Assembly & Senate just released the final cap-and-trade—now called cap-and-invest—reauthorization bill: AB 1207. 1/

#climatesky #energysky

leginfo.legislature.ca.gov

3 26 71

Reposted by Kimberly A. Clausing

Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 29d

100 years from now when transportation is fully autonomous, people aren’t gonna believe we used to drive ourselves around

“So people just had to get really good at driving so no one died in crashes?”

“Oh, people died all the time. There were actually more car deaths than murders every year.”

News: Sen. Josh Hawley is serious about banning self-driving cars, tells me he's planning legislation on this soon.
"I think we ought to ban autonomous vehicles," he told me, calling them "not safe" and saying it would be "terrible for working people" if they become the norm.
1:53 PM • 9/9/25 • 18K Views

13 15 110

Reposted by Dani Rodrik, Richard S.J. Tol

Kimberly Clausing @kclausing.bsky.social · Sep 9

Because we need more abusive tax shelters in the world...

Trump Administration Halts I.R.S. Crackdown on Major Tax Shelters www.nytimes.com/2025/09/09/b...

Trump Administration Halts I.R.S. Crackdown on Major Tax Shelters

www.nytimes.com

11 19

Reposted by Mark D. White, David Rothschild, Michael Kevane , and 6 more Mark D. White, David Rothschild, Michael Kevane, Robert B. Reich, Ann Bartow, Hisham Zerriffi, Frederik Dhondt, Kimberly A. Clausing, David Darmofal

Aaron Reichlin-Melnick @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social · Sep 8

🚨The Supreme Court today gives Trump a license to engage in racial profiling, with Justice Kavanaugh writing in concurrence to expressly endorse ICE and Border Patrol targeting any Latinos they observe in Los Angeles speaking Spanish and then demanding their papers.

Here,
those circumstances include:
that there is an
extremely high number and percentage of illegal immigrants in the Los Angeles area; that those individuals tend to gather in certain locations to seek daily work; that those individuals often work in certain kinds of jobs, such as day labor, landscaping, agriculture, and construction, that do not require paperwork and are therefore especially attractive to illegal immigrants; and that many of those illegally in the Los Angeles area come from Mexico or Central America and do not speak much English. Cf.
Brignoni-Ponce, 422 U.S., at 884-885 (listing "[a]ny number of factors" that contribute to reasonable suspicion of illegal presence). To be clear, apparent ethnicity alone cannot furnish reasonable suspicion; under this Court's case law regarding immigration stops, however, it can be a

KAVANAUGH, J., concurring
"relevant factor" when considered along with other salient factors. Id., at 887.
Under this Court's precedents, not to mention common sense, those circumstances taken together can constitute at least reasonable suspicion of illegal presence in the United States. Importantly, reasonable suspicion means only that immigration officers may briefly stop the individual and inquire about immigration status. If the person is a U.S. citizen or otherwise lawfully in the United States, that individual will be free to go after the brief encounter. Only if the person is illegally in the United States may the stop lead to further immigration proceedings.

190 920 1.9K

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Joanna Bryson, Anna O. Law , and 23 more Jonathan Portes, Joanna Bryson, Anna O. Law, Michael Pettis, Tomasz Mickiewicz, Rosemary A. Joyce, Philip N. Cohen, Laia Balcells, Melissa R. Michelson, Philip Nel, Cathy N. Davidson, David R. Miller, Robert Wolfe, Julia Lynch, Jacob T. Levy, Scott A. Imberman, Kevin Miller, Jason Dittmer, Samantha Brennan, David Rosnick, Kate Starbird, Annette Yoshiko Reed, Olúfẹ́mi Táíwò, Nathan P. Kalmoe, Colin Woodard, Kimberly A. Clausing

Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · Sep 7

Highest level of support since Gallup started asking this question a quarter century ago

Americans' Views on Immigration's Effect on the U.S.
On the whole, do you think immigration is a good thing or a bad thing for this country today?
— % Good thing - - % Bad thing
100%
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
79
17
2001
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
The percentages who volunteer that the effects are "mixed" or who do not have an opinion are not shown.
GALLUP®

120 1.8K 6.5K