Antonio Fatas
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antoniofatas.bsky.social
Antonio Fatas
@antoniofatas.bsky.social
2.7K followers 760 following 2.7K posts

Professor of Economics at INSEAD. Interested in global macroeconomic issues.

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Economics 92%
Political science 5%
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antoniofatas.bsky.social
Antonio Fatas @antoniofatas.bsky.social · 1d
Jason also said that "Scott Bessent is a credible, mainstream pick for Treasury Secretary". I do not deny the credentials of some of these names but when someone accepts a position in this administration you know how credible and mainstream they are NOT

antoniofatas.bsky.social
Antonio Fatas @antoniofatas.bsky.social · 1d
What does this remind me of...October 1999 Kevin Hassett's Dow 36,000 that argued that stock market was a bargain and it should more than triple in value
tobyn.bsky.social Toby Nangle @tobyn.bsky.social · 1d
Despite all the talk of market bubbles, Miran's old shop has put out a call for the S&P500 to triple. Because MAGA. on.ft.com/4rpFNVp
Maybe the S&P 500 will triple?
Stephen Miran’s old shop reckons that stocks are ‘not even close’ to a bubble
on.ft.com

Reposted by Antonio Fatás

tobyn.bsky.social
Toby Nangle @tobyn.bsky.social · 1d
Despite all the talk of market bubbles, Miran's old shop has put out a call for the S&P500 to triple. Because MAGA. on.ft.com/4rpFNVp
Maybe the S&P 500 will triple?
Stephen Miran’s old shop reckons that stocks are ‘not even close’ to a bubble
on.ft.com

Reposted by Edgar Morgenroth, Antonio Fatás

sandertordoir.bsky.social
Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 1d
The United States is no longer providing any financial support for Ukraine according to Kiel's tracker - and has not been for a few months now (although I do wonder how one counts the intelligence support).

Europe is footing the bill alone.

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Iikka Korhonen, Antonio Fatás

helene-rey.bsky.social
Hélène Rey @helene-rey.bsky.social · 1d
European defence governance and financing. Because Europe cannot be blackmailed any longer. If not now then when? @voxeu.org @cepr.org @kiel.institute cepr.org/voxeu/column...
European defence governance and financing
In a context of shifting US commitments, external threats, and global competition over trade, technology, critical minerals, talent, and intellectual property, Europe’s lack of defence capabilities leaves it vulnerable to economic and foreign policy pressure. This column outlines key principles for establishing a European Future of Defence Architecture and a framework for its financing.
cepr.org

antoniofatas.bsky.social
Antonio Fatas @antoniofatas.bsky.social · 2d
You know you are in a bubble when financial advisors “hedge” their opinion by saying do not sell but hedge against the risk of a crash.

Reposted by Antonio Fatás

philipstephens.bsky.social
Philip Stephens @philipstephens.bsky.social · 3d
Simple point to be made to Trump by Europeans. His proposed deal with Putin is as threatening to the rest of Europe as it is humiliating for Ukraine. Rejecting it is not "siding" with Kyiv, but unavoidable to safeguard security of every European democracy......

antoniofatas.bsky.social
Antonio Fatas @antoniofatas.bsky.social · 3d
www.theguardian.com/world/live/2...

antoniofatas.bsky.social
Antonio Fatas @antoniofatas.bsky.social · 4d
Exactly, demand for what and at what price. AI is real and likely to have positive benefits on growth, earnings... but what matters for the bubble debate is whether current valuations are justified.

antoniofatas.bsky.social
Antonio Fatas @antoniofatas.bsky.social · 4d
The fact that Bitcoin's price has gone down despite very favorable regulatory views from the US administration proves the obvious point: valuations of assets without fundamentals can be very subjective

antoniofatas.bsky.social
Antonio Fatas @antoniofatas.bsky.social · 4d
Very reassuring... (from the US peace plan). Source: www.ft.com/content/79ee...

Reposted by Gerald Friedman, Umut Özkırımlı, Francesco Nicoli , and 2 more

carlquintanilla.bsky.social
Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 4d
TEN MONTHS IN:

The national debt is higher.

The trade deficit is wider.

The inflation rate has worsened.

The unemployment rate is up.

antoniofatas.bsky.social
Antonio Fatas @antoniofatas.bsky.social · 4d
Only leverage works with Trump.

on.ft.com/4oSjE0g
Trump flattery will get you nowhere
Fawning after the US president is not only humiliating — it doesn’t work
on.ft.com

Reposted by Antonio Fatás

kevincareywb.bsky.social
Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 5d
Brilliant chart from paper being presented at IMF 13th Statistical Forum by Robert Zymek (IMF Research Department), "Bilateral Trade in Services: Insights from a New Database," showing how the trade networks differ between goods and services according to the new data. www.imf.org/en/news/semi...

antoniofatas.bsky.social
Antonio Fatas @antoniofatas.bsky.social · 5d
Wrong headline. Since Trump's victory and therefore anticipation that tariffs were coming, average trade balance -90 billion USD. In the previous two years -72 billion USD. Looking at one month makes no sense.

www.nytimes.com/2025/11/19/u...
Trump’s Global Tariffs Curtailed Trade, Data Shows
www.nytimes.com

Reposted by Aaron Sojourner, Antonio Fatás

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 8d
How far apart is Miran from Taylor? #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Jonathan A. Eisen, Mark A. Lemley, Steve Peers , and 25 more

paulgp.com
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 12d
For folks (and journalists) who want to search the Oversight Committee email texts, I made a database for searching the 20k text files:

splendorous-chaja-f79791.netlify.app
Epstein Document Search
splendorous-chaja-f79791.netlify.app

antoniofatas.bsky.social
Antonio Fatas @antoniofatas.bsky.social · 13d
Long expansions can create inefficiencies and complacency but the evidence on hysteresis suggests that recessions do not increase aggregate growth, quite the contrary.
economist.com The Economist @economist.com · 13d
When the world lives through a “recession recession”, costs begin to mount. Some suggest that an economy needs the occasional downturn to stay healthy
Recessions have become ultra-rare. That is storing up trouble
Continuous growth can make economies fat and slow
econ.st

Reposted by Antonio Fatás

economist.com
The Economist @economist.com · 13d
When the world lives through a “recession recession”, costs begin to mount. Some suggest that an economy needs the occasional downturn to stay healthy
Recessions have become ultra-rare. That is storing up trouble
Continuous growth can make economies fat and slow
econ.st

antoniofatas.bsky.social
Antonio Fatas @antoniofatas.bsky.social · 13d
New @cepr.org book on digital finance. A must read for current debates on CBDC, stablecoins, regulation, etc... And it is free to download.

cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Frontiers of digital finance, part 1: A global perspective
The digitisation of payment, trading, and settlement systems is reshaping the financial architecture. This column, the first in a two-part series, offers an overview of major trends across the world. It highlights the successful implementation of payment systems in India and Brazil. Other parts of the world, such as sub-Saharan Africa, have also made significant progress but require stronger governance and institutional capacity. Finally, the US and euro area offer two models for digital payments in advanced economies, with important questions centring around who issues new forms of digital money and how to balance privacy and stability concerns.
cepr.org

Reposted by Antonio Fatás

voxeu.org
VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 15d
Patrick Imam and Tigran Poghosyan show that despite earlier and sharper tightening, inflation targeting central banks did not achieve systematically better outcomes than their non-targeting peers during the 2022 global inflation surge.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
The figure illustrates how inflation expectations shifted after the 2022 inflation surge, together with their 90-95% confidence intervals. In both inflation targeting and non-inflation-targeting countries, expectations for the year ahead increased by roughly one percentage point, while longer-term expectations remained stable, indicating that credibility held up across regimes. See Imam and Poghosyan (2025) for details of the empirical analysis. The 2022 global inflation surge tested inflation-targeting frameworks under severe supply shocks. This column shows that, despite earlier and sharper tightening, inflation targeting central banks did not achieve systematically better outcomes than their non-targeting peers. Instead, credibility and timely action mattered more than institutional labels. As supply shocks driven by geopolitics, climate change, and the energy transition become more frequent, inflation targeting frameworks will need to adapt and evolve to remain effective in this new environment.

Reposted by Antonio Fatás

voxeu.org
VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 15d
A Kato & H Nishiyama find regional trade agreements have positive effects on exports to other countries from overseas Japanese manufacturing multinationals, suggesting that they have optimised their cross-border supply chain networks through free trade agreements.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Chart showing activities of overseas Japanese affiliates by region. Data source: METI, the Basic Survey on Oversea Business Activities Studies examining the effects of free trade agreements on the activities of multinational enterprises have tended to focus on trade between home countries and their FTA partner countries. This column examines the effects of free trade agreements on local sales and exports to third countries by overseas affiliates of Japanese manufacturing multinationals. While the effects on local sales are ambiguous, regional trade agreements have positive effects on exports to other countries, suggesting that that Japanese multinationals have optimised their cross-border supply chain networks by utilising various forms of free trade agreements.

Reposted by Antonio Fatás

voxeu.org
VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 15d
8-hour workday led to + employment in Denmark, especially among unskilled & female workers. Earnings fell in provincial towns but less in Copenhagen, where union membership was higher & wages rose to offset shorter hours.
M Fredagsvik Gunnesmo, C Worm Hansen
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Average hours worked in Denmark from 1872 to 1925. The dashed line represents the collective bargaining reform. We observe country-level average working hours between 1872 and 1911, but with gaps. We calculate the 1914–1925 values from occupation-level data. Hours are interpolated where data is missing: several intervals between 1872 and 1911, and between 1914 and 1919. In recent years, calls for shorter working weeks have re-emerged in Europe and elsewhere. This column examines how Denmark’s 1919 shift to the eight-hour workday affected labour market outcomes such as hourly wages, weekly earnings, and employment. Weekly earnings fell in provincial towns but less so in Copenhagen, where union membership was higher and hourly wages rose partly to offset shorter hours. Employment increased everywhere, especially among unskilled and female workers. Decentralised wage bargaining appears to have allowed for partial wage compensation and employment expansion.

Reposted by Antonio Fatás

helengibbons.bsky.social
Helen Gibbons @helengibbons.bsky.social · 20d
From CER: What the Dutch elections mean for the Netherlands and for Europe. www.cer.eu/insights/wha...
What the Dutch elections mean for the Netherlands and for Europe
Armida van Rij and Sander Tordoir decipher what the election results mean for The Netherlands and Europe more broadly.
www.cer.eu

Reposted by Antonio Fatás

voxeu.org
VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 22d
Efraim Benmelech & Joao Monteiro use data for 115 conflicts over the past 75 years and document large and persistent declines in output, investment, and trade following the onset of war, with no evidence of recovery even a decade later.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Graph showing the effect of conflict on GDP Wars leave deep and lasting scars on economies. Using data for 115 conflicts across 145 countries over the past 75 years, this column documents large and persistent declines in output, investment, and trade following the onset of war, with no evidence of recovery even a decade later. Government revenues collapse while spending remains stable, forcing reliance on inflationary finance and short-term debt. The findings show that the true cost of war extends far beyond the battlefield, reshaping fiscal and monetary stability for years to come.

Reposted by Antonio Fatás

voxeu.org
VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 22d
Francesco Bianchi, Era Dabla-Norris, & Salma Khalid show that most people dramatically misjudge debt levels and lose trust in their governments with every budget cut. They also believe that debt stabilisation efforts will disproportionately penalise them.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
This figure shows the median and interquartile range for the response of people in each country to the question "What do you think the current level of government debt is in percent of your country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP)?" Voters fear debt, but they do not understand it. Using data across 13 countries, this column shows that most people dramatically misjudge debt levels and lose trust in their governments with every budget cut. A smaller group of wealthier and more experienced voters demonstrates a stronger grasp of fiscal realities. Yet all groups share a common concern: that debt stabilisation efforts will disproportionately penalise them. These findings reveal how misinformation and memory shape the politics of debt – and why fixing fiscal policy may first require fixing public perception.

Reposted by Antonio Fatás

theguardian.com
The Guardian @theguardian.com · 22d
FBI fires top official amid Kash Patel’s outrage over reports of agency jet use
FBI fires top official amid Kash Patel’s outrage over reports of agency jet use
Patel reportedly became furious after stories revealed he flew to visit girlfriend and fired official who oversees fleet A top FBI official with 27 years standing has reportedly been fired by the bureau after its director, Kash Patel, became enraged by press stories revealing he had used a government jet to travel to see his girlfriend sing the national anthem at a wrestling match. Steven Palmer, who had worked at the bureau since 1998, was fired as head of the FBI’s critical incident response group which is responsible for handling major security threats as well as overseeing the agency’s fleet of jets. He was the third head of the unit to be dismissed since Patel became the second Trump administration’s FBI director in February. Continue reading...
www.theguardian.com

Reposted by Diane Coyle, Richard S.J. Tol, Alistair Munro , and 12 more

paulgp.com
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 23d
Dropping a beta version of this page while everyone is up and processing baseball!

This tool lets you search the full text of papers from the American Economic Review, American Economic Journal series, and over 30,000 NBER working papers.

paulgp.com/econlit-pipe...
Economics Literature Search
Full-text search across 15,000+ papers from top economics journals and NBER working papers. Track how empirical methods have evolved over time.
paulgp.com

Reposted by Antonio Fatás

voxeu.org
VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 25d
A Bonfiglioli, R Crinò, M Filomena, & G Gancia find that local #AI growth raises emissions by boosting economic activity and energy use. It also leads to power generation becoming more carbon-intensive as plants shifts from renewable to non-renewable sources.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Panel (a) displays the employment share of data-intensive occupations in each commuting zone in 2022. Panel (b) shows the total CO2 emissions in each commuting zone for the same year. Darker colours represent higher levels of adoption of data-intensive occupations or emissions over the sample period. Red triangles indicate the presence of a data centre site. AI and other data-intensive technologies may help optimise energy use, but the technologies themselves are power hungry. This column explores how the diffusion of AI affected emissions in the US between 2002 and 2022 and finds that local AI growth raises emissions by boosting economic activity and energy use. It also leads to power generation becoming more carbon-intensive as plants shift from renewable to non-renewable sources. The ‘green’ promise of AI will remain elusive as long as the electricity sector itself does not rapidly decarbonise.

Reposted by Samuel Bentolila, Antonio Fatás

voxeu.org
VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 27d
David Martinez-Miera & Carlos Sunyer examine how an increase in political polarisation impacts a region's capacity to attract human capital. They leverage Spain's centralised system of medical resident placements and the 2017 Catalonia referendum as a case study.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Graph showing average medical residents’ score in Catalonia vs rest of Spain. The points represent yearly mean residuals from an individual-level regression of score on province and specialty-year fixed effects, disaggregated by region. Lines represent the linear fit to the scatterplots, separately estimated before and after the shock. Given the growing prevalence of political and social polarisation, understanding its effects on society is of paramount importance. This column discusses the effects of an increase in political polarisation on a region’s capacity to attract human capital. The evidence shows how an increase in polarisation results in lower attraction of human capital, especially for individuals with higher human capital scores.