Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Reposted by Toby Nangle

George Pearkes @peark.es · 4h

Absolute banger of a blog post from Dallas Fed economist Anton Cheremukhin who estimates breakeven payrolls have fallen to *30k* thanks to rapid declines in population growth.
www.dallasfed.org/research/eco...

Chart showing estimates of US population growth at monthly frequencies from 2017-2025 from BLS, BEA/Census, CBO, and author's calculations

Estimated monthly contributions to monthly breakeven payroll growth across population, changes in institutionalization/civilian status, and labor force participation 2017 - 2025

Estimated monthly breakeven payrolls rate from 2022-2025

5 27 130

Reposted by Toby Nangle

Ben Fenton @benfenton.bsky.social · 11h

If a news organisation is making -200% margin after five years, it is not a commercial operation and should be assumed to have a different purpose.

Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 13h

The channel lost £33 million to communicate its content to a large audience
www.business-live.co.uk/enterprise/g...

GB News suffers huge loss despite doubling revenue and growing audience

The TV channel, whose well-known presenters include Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, fell to a pre-tax loss of £33.4m in the year to 31 May, 2024

www.business-live.co.uk

31 350 970

Toby Nangle @tobyn.bsky.social · 6h

🚨 One for the pensions geeks, and those who look to Canada as a model for the UK pension system. on.ft.com/4h0cXG6

FTAV Q&A: Michelle Ostermann

The UK Pension Protection Fund’s chief talks Canada envy, risk, reform, and public sector consolidation

on.ft.com

1 5 4

Toby Nangle @tobyn.bsky.social · 7h

Don't think I've ever shared a YouTube video on BlueSky before. But worth a watch. www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1dW...

SORA: the all Ai TikTok Clone. will slop end creativity?

YouTube video by CaseyNeistat

www.youtube.com

10

Toby Nangle @tobyn.bsky.social · 14h

Japan at the vanguard of so many (genuine) first world problems. Always worth following how it deals with them. on.ft.com/4oeQJ5O

Japan has an ‘enshortification’ problem

An ageing workforce is affecting all sorts of professions

on.ft.com

2 11 54

Toby Nangle @tobyn.bsky.social · 1d

Top 1% are members of the top 10%, so the lines shouldn’t be summed.

1 2

Toby Nangle @tobyn.bsky.social · 1d

Huuge gap between Mouth and Trousers, with the gap between mouth and trousers varying by trading partner.

2 6

Toby Nangle @tobyn.bsky.social · 1d

🚨 Why are realised US tariff rates so much lower than effective tariff rates?
on.ft.com/4hbgi5l

US tariffs are still *checks notes* around 10 per cent

Lots of mouth, varying amounts of trousers

on.ft.com

1 5 12

Toby Nangle @tobyn.bsky.social · 1d

ie, back to Jane Austen world where wealth is '£x a year'.

1 3

Toby Nangle @tobyn.bsky.social · 1d

My recollection is that much of WAS wealth is PV of DB pensions, including unfunded public sector. Which makes bond yields matter a lot. (Happy to be corrected.)

1

Toby Nangle @tobyn.bsky.social · 1d

Given that the data comes from the WAS to 2022, and that much of wealth is bound up in estimates of pension wealth (where bond yields are important), will be fascinating to see the 2024 numbers post-bond market crash. Cld collapse elder-wealth?

RF estimate what these will do to the aggregate:

1 1

Toby Nangle @tobyn.bsky.social · 1d

More complex (but better) charts showing the role of active vs passive wealth changes. Sort of argues that the young earn & save to build wealth, but can't keep pace with wealth gains accruing passively to the old.

2 2 2

Toby Nangle @tobyn.bsky.social · 1d

Real wealth per adult around the same as it was 15yrs ago — unless you're a 55yo or older.

Chart suggests the bulk of passive wealth gains have accrued to the old.

The closer you get to being aged 60, the greater your wealth, on average.

1 2 5

Toby Nangle @tobyn.bsky.social · 1d

What is the *right* level of wealth inequality?

Am guessing this chart will serve as a Rorschach test.

Average per adult wealth in the UK, by wealth decile

2 1

Toby Nangle @tobyn.bsky.social · 1d

After 80yrs of declining wealth inequality, top 1% and top 10% wealth share in the UK has flatlined for the past 40yrs.

via @resfoundation.bsky.social www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

Blue line shows share of household wealth held by top 1%; red by top 10%.

The chart shows declining wealth inequality from 1900-1980 and a flatlining since then.

5 13 27

Toby Nangle @tobyn.bsky.social · 1d

More people have AI girlfriends (or boyfriends) than use BlueSky, via @alphaville.ft.com open.substack.com/pub/chinatal...

Why America Builds AI Girlfriends and China Makes AI Boyfriends

and what it all means

open.substack.com

4 16

Toby Nangle @tobyn.bsky.social · 2d

Genuine Blockchain use-case! bsky.app/profile/quan...

Quantian @quantian.bsky.social · 2d

lol this actually is a use case, every time your camera takes a photo it uploads a statement to a public blockchain that phone ID X took a picture with a hash of Y at timestamp Z, then if you want to use it as evidence you would show that your phone had ID X and the image matched the hash perfectly.

3 6

Reposted by Toby Nangle

Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 2d

Food prices have risen a lot more than other stuff since Covid...

My newsletter asks whether they are now a leading indicator of inflation

www.ft.com/content/de31...

14 49 150

Toby Nangle @tobyn.bsky.social · 2d

Thanks! Was my first ever blog. 😊

1

Toby Nangle @tobyn.bsky.social · 2d

Thing I don't know is whether drag on investment that might come from higher long-yields (as large firms' cost of issuance rises/ firms generally look to bond market to set hurdle rates etc) is greater than cashflow effect. Reckon textbooks say it (clearly) is. But is it?

1

Toby Nangle @tobyn.bsky.social · 2d

For years UK firms told everyone that would listen that employer special contributions was sapping their lifeblood and preventing investment/ pay rises/ unicorns. Higher bond yields should eradicate their need.