Toby Nangle
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tobyn.bsky.social
Toby Nangle
@tobyn.bsky.social
FT Alphaville reporter. Ex-“veteran” fund manager. Resolution Foundation Assoc. Baring Foundation Trustee.
MoF make it *possible* but not *easy* to get data, and I guess that’s the niche I quite like.
January 28, 2026 at 7:25 PM
Caveats galore, but easy to see how Japan’s MoF is sitting on $330bn unrealised P&L on their FX interventions
January 28, 2026 at 6:19 PM
I used the series that Shin highlighted back in 2024 and just took the data through to last reading
January 26, 2026 at 6:48 PM
This is what I saw informing AQR's 2026 capital market assumptions:
January 23, 2026 at 5:11 PM
I did not. Was it this doc you meant? Quick skim = discussion of tweaks, but no suggested change? www.aqr.com/Insights/Res...
Equity Market Focus: Objective Expected Returns
Part 6: This paper reviews the strengths and weaknesses of using valuation-based metrics like CAPE and CAEY to estimate long-run equity market returns. While these models remain the most robust object...
www.aqr.com
January 23, 2026 at 5:08 PM
This, on his leadership following Charlie Kirk shooting is quite something
January 23, 2026 at 11:11 AM
'I specifically remember him [Kash Patel] saying at one point, “I don’t read.” He explained he didn’t read briefing materials.'

And then this on being annoyed he had to go to a Five Eyes conference with the head of every intelligence agency:
January 23, 2026 at 10:57 AM
I've not placed a bet on Polymarket, but am surprised Rick Rieder is so high (would he want it at this point?!) and surprised that Stephen Miran is <1% given his solid track record of delivering to the President.
January 22, 2026 at 7:24 PM
Tyrrells pouring resources into capturing the denizens of Co-Op where same bag costs only £1.75.
January 22, 2026 at 7:01 PM
January 22, 2026 at 8:33 AM
And chapeau DB’s George Saravelos. Because:
January 22, 2026 at 7:44 AM
Assets backing pensions in Europe are big, but not ‘American’ big
January 22, 2026 at 7:41 AM
Wish there was a way to double-heart this skeet.
January 21, 2026 at 11:06 PM