Duncan Weldon
@duncanweldon.bsky.social
Economics writer. Author.
Expect history, economics, finance and other stuff.
Wrote Two Hundred Years of Muddling Through.
Blood and Treasure, on the economics of war, out now.
Expect history, economics, finance and other stuff.
Wrote Two Hundred Years of Muddling Through.
Blood and Treasure, on the economics of war, out now.
Pinned
Duncan Weldon
@duncanweldon.bsky.social
· Aug 25
Time for a new pinned post. Out now in the UK, coming January 6th in the US.
Reposted by Duncan Weldon
Tax rises are coming in the Budget.
But many people are asking “Shouldn’t welfare be cut instead?”
Let’s examine the feasibility of doing this….🧵
But many people are asking “Shouldn’t welfare be cut instead?”
Let’s examine the feasibility of doing this….🧵
November 25, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Tax rises are coming in the Budget.
But many people are asking “Shouldn’t welfare be cut instead?”
Let’s examine the feasibility of doing this….🧵
But many people are asking “Shouldn’t welfare be cut instead?”
Let’s examine the feasibility of doing this….🧵
Defence conferences. One of the few places where there is a huge queue for the men’s toilets and none for the women.
November 25, 2025 at 12:35 PM
Defence conferences. One of the few places where there is a huge queue for the men’s toilets and none for the women.
A ‘mansion tax’ on homes worth over £2m to raise about £400/450m a year is everything wrong with a ‘smorgasbord’ approach.
Lots of potential political pain for a public finances rounding error. Coupled with a new weird cliffedges.
Either reform property tax to raise proper money or don’t.
Lots of potential political pain for a public finances rounding error. Coupled with a new weird cliffedges.
Either reform property tax to raise proper money or don’t.
Homes worth more than £2mn set to be hit by Budget raid on.ft.com/4rocFhe
Homes worth more than £2mn set to be hit by Budget raid
‘Mansion tax’ set to affect more than 100,000 properties, mostly in London and the south-east
on.ft.com
November 24, 2025 at 6:03 PM
A ‘mansion tax’ on homes worth over £2m to raise about £400/450m a year is everything wrong with a ‘smorgasbord’ approach.
Lots of potential political pain for a public finances rounding error. Coupled with a new weird cliffedges.
Either reform property tax to raise proper money or don’t.
Lots of potential political pain for a public finances rounding error. Coupled with a new weird cliffedges.
Either reform property tax to raise proper money or don’t.
Question on the ‘loads of X ragebait accounts’ are actually people in developing countries thing:
I get the economics of the supply side here. You can generate a decent income - by local standards - producing this stuff.
The more interesting question, I think, is why is there so much demand for it?
I get the economics of the supply side here. You can generate a decent income - by local standards - producing this stuff.
The more interesting question, I think, is why is there so much demand for it?
November 24, 2025 at 5:25 PM
Question on the ‘loads of X ragebait accounts’ are actually people in developing countries thing:
I get the economics of the supply side here. You can generate a decent income - by local standards - producing this stuff.
The more interesting question, I think, is why is there so much demand for it?
I get the economics of the supply side here. You can generate a decent income - by local standards - producing this stuff.
The more interesting question, I think, is why is there so much demand for it?
An hour on the Adrian Chiles show on Friday? Reviewing the week and the budget?
Is this my ideal media gig? It just might be.
Is this my ideal media gig? It just might be.
November 24, 2025 at 5:05 PM
An hour on the Adrian Chiles show on Friday? Reviewing the week and the budget?
Is this my ideal media gig? It just might be.
Is this my ideal media gig? It just might be.
Reposted by Duncan Weldon
This 👇
Railways are large capital intensive infrastructure with very significant market failures - few things manage to be both natural monopolies and public goods with extensive externalities.
Ownership doesn't really change the fundamentals. Private monopolies and public monopolies same same..
Railways are large capital intensive infrastructure with very significant market failures - few things manage to be both natural monopolies and public goods with extensive externalities.
Ownership doesn't really change the fundamentals. Private monopolies and public monopolies same same..
Essentially the best way to run a railway is for it to be owned by a development corporation, and then frankly whether that corporation is state owned or privately owned is sort of a much of a muchness:
The missing piece in Labour’s rail renationalisation scheme
Whether trains are public or private is not the deal-breaker for a well-functioning service — it is about a better delivery model
www.ft.com
November 24, 2025 at 3:30 PM
This 👇
Railways are large capital intensive infrastructure with very significant market failures - few things manage to be both natural monopolies and public goods with extensive externalities.
Ownership doesn't really change the fundamentals. Private monopolies and public monopolies same same..
Railways are large capital intensive infrastructure with very significant market failures - few things manage to be both natural monopolies and public goods with extensive externalities.
Ownership doesn't really change the fundamentals. Private monopolies and public monopolies same same..
Reposted by Duncan Weldon
Martin Wolf on our essay. "So, what do I hope for from Wednesday’s Budget? Some sight of a workable and coherent long-term economic strategy. I do not expect it. It may already be too late. But, without that, it is hard to be optimistic about the UK’s future."
www.ft.com/content/17e1...
www.ft.com/content/17e1...
How to get the UK out of its economic hole
Reeves’ challenge is to remedy the disaster that Brexit has been for the country
www.ft.com
November 24, 2025 at 7:10 AM
Martin Wolf on our essay. "So, what do I hope for from Wednesday’s Budget? Some sight of a workable and coherent long-term economic strategy. I do not expect it. It may already be too late. But, without that, it is hard to be optimistic about the UK’s future."
www.ft.com/content/17e1...
www.ft.com/content/17e1...
I think broadcast, especially in areas like economics, always has to operate with the Stan Lee Marvel comics rule and remember every issue might be somebody’s first.
That doesn’t mean you dumb down, it means you explain and don’t assume knowledge.
That doesn’t mean you dumb down, it means you explain and don’t assume knowledge.
To add to this - it's not like the public is being well served by broadcast news moving at the pace of 24 hour scrolling and the politically obsessed - it just means every election large numbers of people end up googling 'what is austerity?' 'What is brownfield?' etc. etc.
This is bizarre. Like the editor of the guardian or mail or any other paper complaining repeatedly about the front page lead they decided to run with.
Very good example of what's wrong with broadcast news - they've given up deciding for themselves what is or isn't news and what the priorities are
Very good example of what's wrong with broadcast news - they've given up deciding for themselves what is or isn't news and what the priorities are
November 23, 2025 at 4:06 PM
I think broadcast, especially in areas like economics, always has to operate with the Stan Lee Marvel comics rule and remember every issue might be somebody’s first.
That doesn’t mean you dumb down, it means you explain and don’t assume knowledge.
That doesn’t mean you dumb down, it means you explain and don’t assume knowledge.
Random memory, provoked by something else.
Stag party Segway tour of Bruges circa 2015.
Before starting we had to watch a ‘safety video’. Said video was just a lot of clips of people having awful Segway accidents. Meanwhile the instructor randomly shouted “these are not toys”.
Tremendous stuff.
Stag party Segway tour of Bruges circa 2015.
Before starting we had to watch a ‘safety video’. Said video was just a lot of clips of people having awful Segway accidents. Meanwhile the instructor randomly shouted “these are not toys”.
Tremendous stuff.
November 22, 2025 at 7:03 PM
Random memory, provoked by something else.
Stag party Segway tour of Bruges circa 2015.
Before starting we had to watch a ‘safety video’. Said video was just a lot of clips of people having awful Segway accidents. Meanwhile the instructor randomly shouted “these are not toys”.
Tremendous stuff.
Stag party Segway tour of Bruges circa 2015.
Before starting we had to watch a ‘safety video’. Said video was just a lot of clips of people having awful Segway accidents. Meanwhile the instructor randomly shouted “these are not toys”.
Tremendous stuff.
There’s a real chance that Ukraine developments this coming week mean ‘Wednesday’s OBR numbers describe an alternative reality’.
November 22, 2025 at 11:23 AM
There’s a real chance that Ukraine developments this coming week mean ‘Wednesday’s OBR numbers describe an alternative reality’.
Just let out some terrible swearing in front of the children as England decided it was time for Joe Root to bowl.
November 22, 2025 at 9:38 AM
Just let out some terrible swearing in front of the children as England decided it was time for Joe Root to bowl.
Unbelievable stuff from Head.
November 22, 2025 at 9:33 AM
Unbelievable stuff from Head.
If, like me, you’ve got yourself a TNT subscription for the Ashes and are wondering what you’re going to watch when this match finishes very early - TNT also have the India-South Africa Test.
Just looking for good value for money.
Just looking for good value for money.
November 22, 2025 at 8:37 AM
If, like me, you’ve got yourself a TNT subscription for the Ashes and are wondering what you’re going to watch when this match finishes very early - TNT also have the India-South Africa Test.
Just looking for good value for money.
Just looking for good value for money.
Helluva opening partnership that.
November 22, 2025 at 8:12 AM
Helluva opening partnership that.
Starc’s moustache gives him the look of a pre-talkies film star. Head is far more 1970s detective show.
November 22, 2025 at 7:18 AM
Starc’s moustache gives him the look of a pre-talkies film star. Head is far more 1970s detective show.
Reposted by Duncan Weldon
Imagining the ticket sales department trying to find the ground staff in Perth to “just have a quick chat”
November 22, 2025 at 6:54 AM
Imagining the ticket sales department trying to find the ground staff in Perth to “just have a quick chat”
I’m going to say it - another 30 or 40 runs and I think England can do this.
November 22, 2025 at 6:26 AM
I’m going to say it - another 30 or 40 runs and I think England can do this.
Wonder if they’d made this graphic in advance?
November 22, 2025 at 5:49 AM
Wonder if they’d made this graphic in advance?
I genuinely love The Hundred. Adore T20 cricket.
But this is real drama.
But this is real drama.
November 22, 2025 at 5:46 AM
I genuinely love The Hundred. Adore T20 cricket.
But this is real drama.
But this is real drama.
Good morning Joe Root.
November 22, 2025 at 5:09 AM
Good morning Joe Root.
Hear me out… is there a way Ukraine can make Mamdani their ambassador to the United States?
November 21, 2025 at 9:14 PM
Hear me out… is there a way Ukraine can make Mamdani their ambassador to the United States?
Quite surprised at how quickly the latest Ukraine peace plan stuff has moved.
November 21, 2025 at 5:46 PM
Quite surprised at how quickly the latest Ukraine peace plan stuff has moved.
Reposted by Duncan Weldon
The Witkoff-Dmitriev plan is even more amateurish than I imagined. It favours Russia although does contain elements that Russia will not like. Premature leaking means that it is no more than work in progress. Here is an annotated version (This is free). open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...?
The Witkoff-Dmitriev peace plan annotated
We now know a bit more about the process which led to the new peace plan and we now have a copy of its contents, to which I will turn soon.
open.substack.com
November 21, 2025 at 11:36 AM
The Witkoff-Dmitriev plan is even more amateurish than I imagined. It favours Russia although does contain elements that Russia will not like. Premature leaking means that it is no more than work in progress. Here is an annotated version (This is free). open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...?
Been in an excellent mood all day.
Fear that linking my general mood and demeanour to the success of the England cricket team is probably an awful idea though.
Fear that linking my general mood and demeanour to the success of the England cricket team is probably an awful idea though.
November 21, 2025 at 3:59 PM
Been in an excellent mood all day.
Fear that linking my general mood and demeanour to the success of the England cricket team is probably an awful idea though.
Fear that linking my general mood and demeanour to the success of the England cricket team is probably an awful idea though.