Duncan Weldon
banner
duncanweldon.bsky.social
Duncan Weldon
@duncanweldon.bsky.social
Economics writer. Author.
Expect history, economics, finance and other stuff.
Wrote Two Hundred Years of Muddling Through.
Blood and Treasure, on the economics of war, out now.
Very good piece asking if US tariff revenues have peaked.

Has America hit “peak tariff”? 
economist.com/finance-and-...
from The Economist
February 2, 2026 at 4:13 PM
Also correct!
February 2, 2026 at 3:30 PM
Historical sidebar here. Interesting to see emails *to the PM* complaining from ministers about King and the PM’s PPS suggesting taking the concerns to other senior BOE figures.
February 2, 2026 at 2:54 PM
Enjoyed this. And will read the Bates paper.
But we need to be clear: are we talking about boats or a tram?

www.ft.com/content/a870... The dilemmas for the UK created by a rupturing world
February 2, 2026 at 8:21 AM
I’m going in.
February 1, 2026 at 7:49 PM
And here’s the largest rises and falls in the mule stock over that period in % terms.
February 1, 2026 at 10:42 AM
A really great weekend essay.

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
January 31, 2026 at 9:29 AM
January 31, 2026 at 7:41 AM
And now I have to buy myself a pint?

observer.co.uk/news/interna...
January 31, 2026 at 7:24 AM
The ‘new’ live album is great.
January 30, 2026 at 8:01 PM
Oh, the Baltic states.
January 30, 2026 at 10:31 AM
January 30, 2026 at 9:53 AM
And it’s worth noting, that developer funded archeology has had a major impact on our understanding of the past.
(Quote is from a great book, even if I’m really not sure I buy the central argument!)
January 30, 2026 at 9:35 AM
Yeah. Our understanding of Roman Britain has been transformed over the past three decades.
Was really struck when reading this how much of the thesis would have been impossible without the developer funded stuff.
January 30, 2026 at 9:31 AM
Good read here on the history of developer led archeology. historicengland.org.uk/whats-new/de...
January 30, 2026 at 9:24 AM
I really like how major developments come with an assessment by archeologists in the UK.
Good read on finds along the HS2 route.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
January 30, 2026 at 9:22 AM
Was just saying to @benansell.bsky.social - I think looking at predictions about the internet from 1995/6 is a useful exercise.
Here’s a randomly picked Economist leader from 1995
January 29, 2026 at 7:57 PM
Feeling good about that mute.
January 29, 2026 at 3:44 PM
Yesterday’s @londoncentric.media on robo-taxis was excellent.

open.substack.com/pub/londonce...
January 29, 2026 at 1:09 PM
January 29, 2026 at 12:02 PM
You people have a problem.
January 29, 2026 at 11:48 AM
I don’t usually follow the ONS redundancy data that closely, but that’s a fairly notable pickup over the last 18 months.

www.ons.gov.uk/employmentan...
January 29, 2026 at 11:11 AM
Horribly formatted chart (and MigrationWatch but using the Home Office data) but there’s a very strong seasonal pattern.
January 29, 2026 at 11:04 AM
Reposting is also an option.
January 29, 2026 at 9:39 AM
Odd thing: Ed Miliband tried to make the ‘cost of living crisis’ a big thing in 2010-15 and it never really took off. It is a much bigger thing now.
Which is a little tricky to square with the data.
January 29, 2026 at 8:14 AM