Menzie Chinn
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mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn
@mchinn.bsky.social
5.5K followers 720 following 1.1K posts

Professor of Public Affairs and Economics, University of Wisconsin, and Blogger at Econbrowser. All views are my own.

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Menzie David Chinn is a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, co-editor of the Journal of International Money and Finance, and a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research International Finance and Macroeconomics Program. .. more

Economics 93%
Business 4%
Posts Replies Media Videos

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 8h
Prospects for information technology related capital investment - what happened in 2000-01? #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 11h
Output, unemployment gaps for 2025Q3 according to CBO measures, and latest available data #CBO #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 12h
Pawel Skrzypczynski compiles a list of announced economic release dates so you don't have to search; here're some alternative business cycle indicators in the meantime (the freight recession is here!) #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 13h
Conference Board confidence drops 1 std deviation, to 88.7 v 93.5 consensus; expectations of future conditions fall #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 2d
No recession in 2026 #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 3d
@cfr.org Brad Setser @omfif.bsky.social Mark Sobel on yuan undervaluation #EconSky #BigMac
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 3d
Forward P/E ratios for Mag 7 (not incl Friday rebound) #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 4d
EJ Antoni on reserves held by Fed, in $ #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Aaron Sojourner

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 4d
Manufacturing employment, hours in September - where's the manufacturing renaissance I was promised? #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Menzie Chinn

iikkakorhonen.bsky.social
Iikka Korhonen @iikkakorhonen.bsky.social · 4d
Value is the product of volume and unit price. We obtain data on the unit prices of exports to Russia for many countries, including China and Türkiye. China accounts for ~50% of Russia’s imports. When we look at HS data at 6-digit level, unit prices of sanctioned goods to Russia are up 75%!

3/

Reposted by Menzie Chinn, Robert Wolfe

iikkakorhonen.bsky.social
Iikka Korhonen @iikkakorhonen.bsky.social · 4d
Heli Simola and I wrote about the effect of sanctions on unit prices of Russia’s imports. I.e., how much does Russia have to pay more for goods EU & co have sanctioned, when it imports them from China, Türkiye and other countries?
@bofit.suomenpankki.fi DP 8/2025
🇷🇺🇨🇳🇹🇷
1/

www.bofit.fi/en/

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 4d
No October CPI for you (ever), but nice hole in the ground where the East Wing used to be -- thinking about "essential" during a shutdown. Hope you don't have any TIPS #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 4d
Michigan consumer sentiment near all-time low (which was in June 2025). Using EJ Antoni definition, we're in a recession #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 4d
See orange line here:

Reposted by Menzie Chinn

duffelblog.com
Duffel Blog @duffelblog.com · 4d
NEW: Saudi crown prince gifts Trump solid gold bone saw www.duffelblog.com/saudi-crown-...
Saudi crown prince gifts Trump solid gold bone saw
Kingdom's sharp diplomatic gesture cuts through red tape and flesh
www.duffelblog.com

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 5d
First number is from survey of establishments; second is from survey of *households*.

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 5d
EJ Antoni identifies a vast conspiracy at BLS - "edged up" are fightin' words #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 5d
UPDATE: Mild upside surprise on NFP, private NFP (given August numbers downwardly revised) #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 6d
Nowcasted GDP (4.2% q/q AR) and predicted employment growth diverge; nowcasted GDP and "core GDP" aren't back to pre-Trump trends #EconSky @AtlantaFed.org @philadelphiafed.bsky.social
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Menzie Chinn

erikamcentarfer.bsky.social
Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 6d
BLS confirms that October jobs report will not be released, but that October payroll numbers will be published with the November report

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 7d
S&P500, BTC and VIX; are we past peak? #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 7d
Were per square foot housing prices constant in real terms 1978-2020? #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 8d
Some time series on "house affordability" for the skeptical #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Aaron Sojourner, Antonio Fatás

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 9d
How far apart is Miran from Taylor? #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 9d
AIER Everyday Price Index trajectory vs. 2024 stochastic trend #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 10d
On coffee, little respite and mostly talk re: grocery-related tariff relief #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Michael Kevane

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 10d
How to detect "wag the dog" behavior: Epstein/Venezuela edition #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 11d
What about deportations/removals as well as tariffs in housing costs? #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 11d
EJ Antoni (who thought a parameter was small -- when it's actually big -- because he put a percentage variable in decimal form on the LHS, and percentage point variable on the RHS) proposes improvements to the BLS - yeesh #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Richard S.J. Tol, Menzie Chinn, Brendan Nyhan , and 10 more

benzipperer.org
Ben Zipperer @benzipperer.org · 12d
Deportations actually _increase_ housing prices because they shrink the construction industry.

The reduction in new houses being built swamps effects from lower demand
Figure 9 from a paper by Troup Howard, Mengqi Wang, and Dayin Zhang showing the house price response to the Secure Communities immigration enforcement policy