Menzie Chinn
@mchinn.bsky.social
Professor of Public Affairs and Economics, University of Wisconsin, and Blogger at Econbrowser. All views are my own.
On @scholars.org ' "No Jargon" podcast, talking tariffs and policy uncertainty:
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
February 4, 2026 at 5:00 PM
On @scholars.org ' "No Jargon" podcast, talking tariffs and policy uncertainty:
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
ADP private NFP at a crawl, 2025 growth rev'd down, manufacturing declining faster than est'd before, but small firm empl picks up #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
February 4, 2026 at 4:10 PM
ADP private NFP at a crawl, 2025 growth rev'd down, manufacturing declining faster than est'd before, but small firm empl picks up #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Reposted by Menzie Chinn
📦💸 What does it look like when tariffs hit home?
In this No Jargon episode, economist @mchinn.bsky.social (@uwmadison.bsky.social) breaks down how rising tariffs are shaping prices, businesses, and household budgets a year into President Trump’s second term.
🎧 Listen: scholars.org/podcast/when...
In this No Jargon episode, economist @mchinn.bsky.social (@uwmadison.bsky.social) breaks down how rising tariffs are shaping prices, businesses, and household budgets a year into President Trump’s second term.
🎧 Listen: scholars.org/podcast/when...
February 3, 2026 at 4:08 PM
📦💸 What does it look like when tariffs hit home?
In this No Jargon episode, economist @mchinn.bsky.social (@uwmadison.bsky.social) breaks down how rising tariffs are shaping prices, businesses, and household budgets a year into President Trump’s second term.
🎧 Listen: scholars.org/podcast/when...
In this No Jargon episode, economist @mchinn.bsky.social (@uwmadison.bsky.social) breaks down how rising tariffs are shaping prices, businesses, and household budgets a year into President Trump’s second term.
🎧 Listen: scholars.org/podcast/when...
Employment indicators flattish, output and consumption strongly up; Bloomberg consensus for January ADP private NFP +48K #EconSky @philadelphiafed.bsky.social @nber.org BCDC ADP
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
February 2, 2026 at 10:34 PM
Employment indicators flattish, output and consumption strongly up; Bloomberg consensus for January ADP private NFP +48K #EconSky @philadelphiafed.bsky.social @nber.org BCDC ADP
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
February 2, 2026 at 4:50 PM
Proxy measure for aggregate demand, "Core GDP" either growing at 2.5% or 3.4% #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
February 2, 2026 at 7:19 AM
Proxy measure for aggregate demand, "Core GDP" either growing at 2.5% or 3.4% #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Reposted by Menzie Chinn
I can think of several reasons why this won’t happen, and capital controls is just one of them.
🇨🇳
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... Xi Jinping calls for China’s renminbi to attain global reserve currency status
🇨🇳
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... Xi Jinping calls for China’s renminbi to attain global reserve currency status
Xi Jinping calls for China’s renminbi to attain global reserve currency status
Latest commentary details ambitions for ‘powerful currency’ to play a greater role in trade and forex
giftarticle.ft.com
February 2, 2026 at 4:11 AM
I can think of several reasons why this won’t happen, and capital controls is just one of them.
🇨🇳
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... Xi Jinping calls for China’s renminbi to attain global reserve currency status
🇨🇳
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... Xi Jinping calls for China’s renminbi to attain global reserve currency status
Exchange rate pass through (as the dollar falls), and tariff pass through (as they reach record highs) #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
February 1, 2026 at 9:55 PM
Exchange rate pass through (as the dollar falls), and tariff pass through (as they reach record highs) #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Trends in imports (?): expenditure reduction (via policy uncertainty), expenditure switching (via tariffs), or both #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
January 31, 2026 at 9:50 PM
Trends in imports (?): expenditure reduction (via policy uncertainty), expenditure switching (via tariffs), or both #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
January 31, 2026 at 7:53 PM
January 30, 2026 at 9:20 PM
You say DSGE, I say Model-Consistent Expectations... Let's call the whole thing off! (apologies to Gershwin) Kevin Warsh on the drawbacks of FRB/US #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
January 30, 2026 at 7:56 PM
You say DSGE, I say Model-Consistent Expectations... Let's call the whole thing off! (apologies to Gershwin) Kevin Warsh on the drawbacks of FRB/US #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
January 30, 2026 at 5:09 PM
Steven Kamin & Mark Sobel on threats to dollar dominance, incl. assault on "rule of law" #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
January 29, 2026 at 1:04 AM
Steven Kamin & Mark Sobel on threats to dollar dominance, incl. assault on "rule of law" #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Reposted by Menzie Chinn
Immigrants in the US consumed about 24% fewer welfare and entitlement benefits per capita than native-born Americans in 2023, new Cato Institute research finds.
Learn more from Alex Nowrasteh and Jerome Famularo: https://ow.ly/2w4Z50Y4Bsj
Learn more from Alex Nowrasteh and Jerome Famularo: https://ow.ly/2w4Z50Y4Bsj
January 27, 2026 at 10:29 PM
Immigrants in the US consumed about 24% fewer welfare and entitlement benefits per capita than native-born Americans in 2023, new Cato Institute research finds.
Learn more from Alex Nowrasteh and Jerome Famularo: https://ow.ly/2w4Z50Y4Bsj
Learn more from Alex Nowrasteh and Jerome Famularo: https://ow.ly/2w4Z50Y4Bsj
Reposted by Menzie Chinn
Bessent has revealed repeatedly that he's willing to lie for Trump. He's also revealed that he's not too bright, and knows little about monetary policy. He has wondered aloud about what all the people with economics PhDs are doing at the Fed.
January 28, 2026 at 4:15 PM
Bessent has revealed repeatedly that he's willing to lie for Trump. He's also revealed that he's not too bright, and knows little about monetary policy. He has wondered aloud about what all the people with economics PhDs are doing at the Fed.
January 28, 2026 at 6:25 AM
Donald Trump is unworried about the value of the dollar; I think we should be worried abt *why* the dollar is weakening (credibility v. inflation) #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
January 27, 2026 at 9:29 PM
Donald Trump is unworried about the value of the dollar; I think we should be worried abt *why* the dollar is weakening (credibility v. inflation) #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Reposted by Menzie Chinn
Crypto, you see, is a stable hedge against the increasing uncertainty & debasement of the US dol- 🤔🧐
So currencies. Much medium of exchange. Very store of value.
So currencies. Much medium of exchange. Very store of value.
January 27, 2026 at 4:39 PM
Crypto, you see, is a stable hedge against the increasing uncertainty & debasement of the US dol- 🤔🧐
So currencies. Much medium of exchange. Very store of value.
So currencies. Much medium of exchange. Very store of value.
January 26, 2026 at 8:54 PM
January 26, 2026 at 5:44 PM
Reposted by Menzie Chinn
DHS has shot 12 people during immigration enforcement operations since September:
January 25, 2026 at 4:27 PM
DHS has shot 12 people during immigration enforcement operations since September:
Uncertainty regarding where we were, where we are, and where we're going (output-wise) #EconSky @philadelphiafed.bsky.social @atlantafed.org @newyorkfed.bsky.social @wsj.com
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
January 24, 2026 at 7:23 PM
Uncertainty regarding where we were, where we are, and where we're going (output-wise) #EconSky @philadelphiafed.bsky.social @atlantafed.org @newyorkfed.bsky.social @wsj.com
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Reposted by Menzie Chinn
“There are no sidelines any more, friends.” - @philtajitsunash.bsky.social
1942. Mochida Family awaiting deportation in Centerville, CA. Photo by Dorothea Lange.
2026. Five year old Liam Ramos taken away by ICE returning home from pre-school, Photo via Columbus Heights Elementary, Minneapolis.
1942. Mochida Family awaiting deportation in Centerville, CA. Photo by Dorothea Lange.
2026. Five year old Liam Ramos taken away by ICE returning home from pre-school, Photo via Columbus Heights Elementary, Minneapolis.
January 23, 2026 at 1:30 AM
“There are no sidelines any more, friends.” - @philtajitsunash.bsky.social
1942. Mochida Family awaiting deportation in Centerville, CA. Photo by Dorothea Lange.
2026. Five year old Liam Ramos taken away by ICE returning home from pre-school, Photo via Columbus Heights Elementary, Minneapolis.
1942. Mochida Family awaiting deportation in Centerville, CA. Photo by Dorothea Lange.
2026. Five year old Liam Ramos taken away by ICE returning home from pre-school, Photo via Columbus Heights Elementary, Minneapolis.
January 22, 2026 at 3:57 PM