Menzie Chinn

@mchinn.bsky.social

5.5K followers 720 following 1.1K posts

Professor of Public Affairs and Economics, University of Wisconsin, and Blogger at Econbrowser. All views are my own.

Menzie David Chinn is a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, co-editor of the Journal of International Money and Finance, and a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research International Finance and Macroeconomics Program. .. more

Economics 93%

Business 4%

Posts Replies Media Videos

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 3h

Cliff Winston (Brookings) on "Market Corrections Not
Government Interventions: A Path to Improve the US
Economy" (Palgrave MacMillan) #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 8h

@sdonnan.bsky.social on Trump's $21 trn foreign investment claim (& what we had to give up in order to get what we did get which was a lot < $21 trn) #EconSky

www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

Is Trump Right About the US Getting $21 Trillion in Investment?

The White House lists nearly $9.6 trillion in new investment pledges, less than what’s boasted by Trump.

www.bloomberg.com

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 9h

American Institute for Economic Policy's Everday Price Index EPI (TM) (no relation to @epi.org) implies flat hourly earnings since January 2025, down since December 2024 ... #Econsky

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 9h

Absolutely, AIER's Everday Price Index has zero to do w/EPI @epi.org Thanks for clarification

Monique Morrissey @moniquemorrissey.bsky.social · 9h

For the record, I don't think this has anything to do with @epi.org!

Reposted by Menzie Chinn

Monique Morrissey @moniquemorrissey.bsky.social · 9h

For the record, I don't think this has anything to do with @epi.org!

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 9h

EJ Antoni strikes again, from beyond... reality #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Menzie Chinn

Antonio Fatas @antoniofatas.bsky.social · 10h

Hard to assess the risk when Tether does not share much information on its balance sheet. But they have been open about adding riskier assets, some of which are not doing great. Fixed exchange rates can last for long periods of time and then crash in a matter of seconds.

www.ft.com/content/9749...

S&P downgrades Tether’s assets to lowest level

Rating agency cites rising exposure to high-risk assets and lack of disclosures

www.ft.com

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 1d

Prospects for information technology related capital investment - what happened in 2000-01? #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 1d

Output, unemployment gaps for 2025Q3 according to CBO measures, and latest available data #CBO #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 1d

Pawel Skrzypczynski compiles a list of announced economic release dates so you don't have to search; here're some alternative business cycle indicators in the meantime (the freight recession is here!) #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 1d

Conference Board confidence drops 1 std deviation, to 88.7 v 93.5 consensus; expectations of future conditions fall #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 3d

No recession in 2026 #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 4d

@cfr.org Brad Setser @omfif.bsky.social Mark Sobel on yuan undervaluation #EconSky #BigMac
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 4d

Forward P/E ratios for Mag 7 (not incl Friday rebound) #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 5d

EJ Antoni on reserves held by Fed, in $ #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Aaron Sojourner

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 5d

Manufacturing employment, hours in September - where's the manufacturing renaissance I was promised? #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Menzie Chinn

Iikka Korhonen @iikkakorhonen.bsky.social · 5d

Value is the product of volume and unit price. We obtain data on the unit prices of exports to Russia for many countries, including China and Türkiye. China accounts for ~50% of Russia’s imports. When we look at HS data at 6-digit level, unit prices of sanctioned goods to Russia are up 75%!

3/

Reposted by Menzie Chinn, Robert Wolfe

Iikka Korhonen @iikkakorhonen.bsky.social · 5d

Heli Simola and I wrote about the effect of sanctions on unit prices of Russia’s imports. I.e., how much does Russia have to pay more for goods EU & co have sanctioned, when it imports them from China, Türkiye and other countries?
@bofit.suomenpankki.fi DP 8/2025
🇷🇺🇨🇳🇹🇷
1/

www.bofit.fi/en/

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 5d

No October CPI for you (ever), but nice hole in the ground where the East Wing used to be -- thinking about "essential" during a shutdown. Hope you don't have any TIPS #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 5d

Michigan consumer sentiment near all-time low (which was in June 2025). Using EJ Antoni definition, we're in a recession #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 5d

See orange line here:

Reposted by Menzie Chinn

Duffel Blog @duffelblog.com · 5d

NEW: Saudi crown prince gifts Trump solid gold bone saw www.duffelblog.com/saudi-crown-...

Saudi crown prince gifts Trump solid gold bone saw

Kingdom's sharp diplomatic gesture cuts through red tape and flesh

www.duffelblog.com

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 6d

First number is from survey of establishments; second is from survey of *households*.

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 6d

EJ Antoni identifies a vast conspiracy at BLS - "edged up" are fightin' words #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 6d

UPDATE: Mild upside surprise on NFP, private NFP (given August numbers downwardly revised) #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 7d

Nowcasted GDP (4.2% q/q AR) and predicted employment growth diverge; nowcasted GDP and "core GDP" aren't back to pre-Trump trends #EconSky @AtlantaFed.org @philadelphiafed.bsky.social
econbrowser.com/archives/202...