Menzie Chinn
mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn
@mchinn.bsky.social

Professor of Public Affairs and Economics, University of Wisconsin, and Blogger at Econbrowser. All views are my own.

Menzie David Chinn is a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, co-editor of the Journal of International Money and Finance, and a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research International Finance and Macroeconomics Program. .. more

Economics 93%
Business 4%

I guess this is a "risk-off" period... #EconSky

0.93% y/y CPI inflation as of today. Truflation says so... @heritagefdn.bsky.social chief economist #EconSky

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On @scholars.org ' "No Jargon" podcast, talking tariffs and policy uncertainty:
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ADP private NFP at a crawl, 2025 growth rev'd down, manufacturing declining faster than est'd before, but small firm empl picks up #EconSky
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📦💸 What does it look like when tariffs hit home?

In this No Jargon episode, economist @mchinn.bsky.social (@uwmadison.bsky.social) breaks down how rising tariffs are shaping prices, businesses, and household budgets a year into President Trump’s second term.

🎧 Listen: scholars.org/podcast/when...

Employment indicators flattish, output and consumption strongly up; Bloomberg consensus for January ADP private NFP +48K #EconSky @philadelphiafed.bsky.social @nber.org BCDC ADP
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Warsh on Fed -- ambiguous implications for long rates #EconSky
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Proxy measure for aggregate demand, "Core GDP" either growing at 2.5% or 3.4% #EconSky

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Reposted by Menzie Chinn

I can think of several reasons why this won’t happen, and capital controls is just one of them.

🇨🇳

giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... Xi Jinping calls for China’s renminbi to attain global reserve currency status
Xi Jinping calls for China’s renminbi to attain global reserve currency status
Latest commentary details ambitions for ‘powerful currency’ to play a greater role in trade and forex
giftarticle.ft.com
Exchange rate pass through (as the dollar falls), and tariff pass through (as they reach record highs) #EconSky

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Trends in imports (?): expenditure reduction (via policy uncertainty), expenditure switching (via tariffs), or both #EconSky
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PPI upside surprise - instantaneous inflation #EconSky

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You say DSGE, I say Model-Consistent Expectations... Let's call the whole thing off! (apologies to Gershwin) Kevin Warsh on the drawbacks of FRB/US #EconSky
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Reposted by Jonathan Hopkin

Steven Kamin & Mark Sobel on threats to dollar dominance, incl. assault on "rule of law" #EconSky
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Reposted by Menzie Chinn

Bessent has revealed repeatedly that he's willing to lie for Trump. He's also revealed that he's not too bright, and knows little about monetary policy. He has wondered aloud about what all the people with economics PhDs are doing at the Fed.

Reposted by Antonio Fatás

Consumer confidence collapses #EconSky
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Immigrants in the US consumed about 24% fewer welfare and entitlement benefits per capita than native-born Americans in 2023, new Cato Institute research finds.

Learn more from Alex Nowrasteh and Jerome Famularo: https://ow.ly/2w4Z50Y4Bsj

Donald Trump is unworried about the value of the dollar; I think we should be worried abt *why* the dollar is weakening (credibility v. inflation) #EconSky
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Reposted by Menzie Chinn

Crypto, you see, is a stable hedge against the increasing uncertainty & debasement of the US dol- 🤔🧐

So currencies. Much medium of exchange. Very store of value.

De jure financial openness in the world, 2023 #EconSky

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Economic Policy Uncertainty in these times #EconSky
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DHS has shot 12 people during immigration enforcement operations since September:

Uncertainty regarding where we were, where we are, and where we're going (output-wise) #EconSky @philadelphiafed.bsky.social @atlantafed.org @newyorkfed.bsky.social @wsj.com
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“There are no sidelines any more, friends.” - @philtajitsunash.bsky.social

1942. Mochida Family awaiting deportation in Centerville, CA. Photo by Dorothea Lange.

2026. Five year old Liam Ramos taken away by ICE returning home from pre-school, Photo via Columbus Heights Elementary, Minneapolis.

Jeffry Frieden on "The New Political Economy of US Trade" #EconSky
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Bond yield still elevated relative to pre-Saturday #EconSky

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EJ Antoni should be calling a manufacturing recession #EconSky
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Reposted by Jonathan Hopkin

Another entry in "destroying the American economy at full-speed" 10yr Trsy, VIX, CDS, SP500 & DXY #EconSky
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