Menzie Chinn
@mchinn.bsky.social
5.5K followers 720 following 1K posts

Professor of Public Affairs and Economics, University of Wisconsin, and Blogger at Econbrowser. All views are my own.

Menzie David Chinn is a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, co-editor of the Journal of International Money and Finance, and a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research International Finance and Macroeconomics Program. .. more

Economics 93%
Business 4%
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mchinn.bsky.social
The soybean farmers of the Midwest thank Trump! #Econsky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
We'll miss PPI, import/export prices, state employment, ECI, etc; we'll also miss GDP 3qtr advance release and income and spending, with a 31 day shutdown... #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
On a non-economic note, thanks to DOGE for increasing morale among FAA workers (by letting go of probationary workers) see flightware.com/miserymap/ as of 4:15 pm CT today

mchinn.bsky.social
The beginning of the P/E adjustment process? #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
UMich Sentiment (prel) is back down to post-"Liberation Day" levels, below global financial crisis levels ... so tired of winning #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Differential growth large v small firms #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Alberto Cavallo on consumer prices deviation from trend, post-Trump trade war start #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
US ag exports - prospects in the Trump 2.0 era #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Trump slams the ag sector, so govt financial support is needed (again!) #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Are we in a recession? The heavy truck sales indicator suggests so (but Sahm rule doesn not) #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
What data releases will we miss? What data are not being collected if the shutdown goes 22 days (current Kalshi estimate)? #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Betting is on gov't shutdown to 21 Oct or so - so maybe no CPI release for you (for a while)! Nowcasts suggest accelerated CPI (instantaneous) inflation, steady core #EconSky @janeeckhout.bsky.social
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
ADP-Stanford Digital Economy Lab private NFP series for firms 1-499 suggests downturn #Econsky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Agree, egregious. Is it worse than Trump 1.0 Hassett CEA chair using polynomial to predict Covid fatalities? Hard to say...
justinwolfers.bsky.social
Trump's CEA is circulating its estimate of the economic cost of the government shutdown.

But, BREAKING: It's wrong. It makes a simple arithmetic error. And it's dishonest.

Surprising, I know. 🧵

Reposted by Menzie Chinn

reichlinmelnick.bsky.social
What DHS pulled in Chicago on Tuesday is wildly unconstitutional. They smashed down almost every door in the building, dragged entire families into the street, and detained people for hours ("Kavanaugh stops").

Ms. Fisher was held for five hours and another senior citizen was held for three hours.
Rodrick Johnson, 67, is one of many residents who were detained by federal agents during the South Shore raid. A U.S. citizen, he said agents broke through his door and dragged him out in zip ties.

Johnson said he was left tied up outside the building for nearly three hours before agents finally let him go.

“I asked [agents] why they were holding me if I was an American citizen, and they said I had to wait until they looked me up,” Jones said. “I asked if they had a warrant, and I asked for a lawyer. They never brought one.”

mchinn.bsky.social
FT-Booth f'cast implies no catch-up to 2023-24 trajectory #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Point estimate suggests drop in BLS private NFP, but broad prediction interval #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
I feel so much better looking at ADP data alone... (EJ Antoni memorial comment) #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
World Bank on the importance of boosting investment in EMDEs #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Jamel Saadaoui on identifying geopolitical turning points #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Random thought: EJ Antoni might get his wish for quarterly employment releases if the shutdown lasts long enough... (although if there are no working employees to do follow up requests for firms to answer their surveys, not sure how much more accurate numbers will be after a month delay...) #EconSky

mchinn.bsky.social
Confirmed: Confidence/Sentiment down #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...
mtkonczal.bsky.social
New post, I finally wrote my thoughts on the Stephen Miran Federal Reserve speech.

I think it shows yet another reason for central bank independence. Without it, you can't tell what's a genuine outsider take and what's just carrying water for the Executive.
mikekonczal.substack.com/p/mirans-cas...
Miran’s Case for Cuts: A Reminder of Why Independence is Essential
Stephen Miran's recent speech highlights not just a debate over r*, but the deeper risks of allowing White House talking points to shape monetary policy.
mikekonczal.substack.com