Menzie Chinn
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mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn
@mchinn.bsky.social
5.6K followers 730 following 1.2K posts

Professor of Public Affairs and Economics, University of Wisconsin, and Blogger at Econbrowser. All views are my own.

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Menzie David Chinn is a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, co-editor of the Journal of International Money and Finance, and a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research International Finance and Macroeconomics Program. .. more

Economics 93%
Business 4%
Posts Replies Media Videos

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 13h
Trade balance improvement less marked when stripping out gold #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 14h
Do announced layoffs Granger cause actual layoffs (at quarterly basis)? Ans: Yes! #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 16h
Jeff Frankel on an American Caligula #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Guest Contribution: “Caligula Reincarnated” | Econbrowser
econbrowser.com

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 1d
How fast is Chinese GDP growing in Q3? 5% vs. 4% (@bofit.suomenpankki.fi ) or less ( @rhg.com ) or near trend ( SF Fed CCAT for Q2)? (and what is trend anyways?) @johnfernald.bsky.social Mark Spiegel #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Christian Odendahl, Menzie Chinn, Steven S. Smith , and 2 more

justinwolfers.bsky.social
Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 1d
This chart seems to suggest a striking pattern: Kevin Warsh's speeches are consistently hawkish, except when Trump is President and about to appoint a new Fed Chair.
www.economist.com/finance-and-...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 2d
I guess this is a "risk-off" period... #EconSky

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 2d
0.93% y/y CPI inflation as of today. Truflation says so... @heritagefdn.bsky.social chief economist #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 2d
On @scholars.org ' "No Jargon" podcast, talking tariffs and policy uncertainty:
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 2d
ADP private NFP at a crawl, 2025 growth rev'd down, manufacturing declining faster than est'd before, but small firm empl picks up #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Menzie Chinn, Michael Kevane

scholars.org
Scholars Strategy Network @scholars.org · 3d
📦💸 What does it look like when tariffs hit home?

In this No Jargon episode, economist @mchinn.bsky.social (@uwmadison.bsky.social) breaks down how rising tariffs are shaping prices, businesses, and household budgets a year into President Trump’s second term.

🎧 Listen: scholars.org/podcast/when...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 4d
Employment indicators flattish, output and consumption strongly up; Bloomberg consensus for January ADP private NFP +48K #EconSky @philadelphiafed.bsky.social @nber.org BCDC ADP
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 4d
Warsh on Fed -- ambiguous implications for long rates #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 5d
Proxy measure for aggregate demand, "Core GDP" either growing at 2.5% or 3.4% #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Menzie Chinn

iikkakorhonen.bsky.social
Iikka Korhonen @iikkakorhonen.bsky.social · 5d
I can think of several reasons why this won’t happen, and capital controls is just one of them.

🇨🇳

giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... Xi Jinping calls for China’s renminbi to attain global reserve currency status
Xi Jinping calls for China’s renminbi to attain global reserve currency status
Latest commentary details ambitions for ‘powerful currency’ to play a greater role in trade and forex
giftarticle.ft.com

Reposted by Christian E. Weller

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 5d
Exchange rate pass through (as the dollar falls), and tariff pass through (as they reach record highs) #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 6d
Trends in imports (?): expenditure reduction (via policy uncertainty), expenditure switching (via tariffs), or both #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 6d
Dodging hackification #EconSky @usbls.bsky.social
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 7d
PPI upside surprise - instantaneous inflation #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 7d
You say DSGE, I say Model-Consistent Expectations... Let's call the whole thing off! (apologies to Gershwin) Kevin Warsh on the drawbacks of FRB/US #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 7d
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Jonathan Hopkin

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 9d
Steven Kamin & Mark Sobel on threats to dollar dominance, incl. assault on "rule of law" #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Menzie Chinn

1954swilliamson.bsky.social
Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · 9d
Bessent has revealed repeatedly that he's willing to lie for Trump. He's also revealed that he's not too bright, and knows little about monetary policy. He has wondered aloud about what all the people with economics PhDs are doing at the Fed.

Reposted by Antonio Fatás

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 10d
Consumer confidence collapses #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Menzie Chinn, Peter Thorne, Stacy D. VanDeveer , and 1 more

cato.org
Cato Institute @cato.org · 10d
Immigrants in the US consumed about 24% fewer welfare and entitlement benefits per capita than native-born Americans in 2023, new Cato Institute research finds.

Learn more from Alex Nowrasteh and Jerome Famularo: https://ow.ly/2w4Z50Y4Bsj

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 10d
Donald Trump is unworried about the value of the dollar; I think we should be worried abt *why* the dollar is weakening (credibility v. inflation) #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Menzie Chinn

mcopelov.bsky.social
Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 10d
Crypto, you see, is a stable hedge against the increasing uncertainty & debasement of the US dol- 🤔🧐

So currencies. Much medium of exchange. Very store of value.

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 11d
De jure financial openness in the world, 2023 #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 11d
Economic Policy Uncertainty in these times #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Cas Mudde, Menzie Chinn, David Dunning , and 7 more

nbcnews.com
NBC News @nbcnews.com · 12d
DHS has shot 12 people during immigration enforcement operations since September:

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 13d
Uncertainty regarding where we were, where we are, and where we're going (output-wise) #EconSky @philadelphiafed.bsky.social @atlantafed.org @newyorkfed.bsky.social @wsj.com
econbrowser.com/archives/202...