Menzie Chinn

@mchinn.bsky.social

5.6K followers 730 following 1.2K posts

Professor of Public Affairs and Economics, University of Wisconsin, and Blogger at Econbrowser. All views are my own.

Menzie David Chinn is a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, co-editor of the Journal of International Money and Finance, and a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research International Finance and Macroeconomics Program. .. more

Economics 93%

Business 4%

Posts Replies Media Videos

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 1h

#EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

We Are Well and Truly F****ed: Fed Edition | Econbrowser

econbrowser.com

Reposted by Menzie Chinn, Trevon D. Logan

Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 1h

Powell‘s words are clear and chilling.

The Fed can’t defend itself from the White House. The Senate and the courts will have to step up. Will they?

Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 2h

"This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions—or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation."

Federal Reserve @federalreserve.gov · 4h

Video message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KckG...
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...

Reposted by Jan W. Mueller, Menzie Chinn, Élisabeth Vallet , and 1 more Jan W. Mueller, Menzie Chinn, Élisabeth Vallet, David Darmofal

Tim O’Brien @timobrien.bsky.social · 1h

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the US central bank had been served grand jury subpoenas from the Justice Department threatening a criminal indictment, a dramatic escalation of the Trump administration’s attacks on the Fed.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Fed Served With DOJ Subpoenas, Powell Vows to Stand Firm

www.bloomberg.com

Reposted by Menzie Chinn

Michael Derby @michaelsderby.bsky.social · 1h

Peter Conti-Brown: Powell investigation “is a low point in Trump's presidency and a low point in the history of central banking in America…Because the Fed has rebuffed President Trump's efforts to take the Fed down he is launching the full weight of American criminal law against its Chair.”

Fed's Powell says Trump administration has threatened him with a criminal indictment

Jerome Powell called the action a "pretext" aimed at putting further pressure on the central bank to lower interest rates.

www.reuters.com

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 8h

Lots of NFP series look past peak (even w/o Powell conjecture) @philadelphiafed.bsky.social @usbls.bsky.social #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 1d

In 3 qtrs, Trump has increased Fed debt held by public to (potential) GDP by more than Biden did in 4 years #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 1d

Wisconsin thanks Drumpf! Real goods exports, mfg employment down since end-2024 #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 2d

Accelerating downward mfg employment fm ADP, BLS CES & QCEW #EconSky @usbls.bsky.social
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 2d

Avg effective tariff rate thru Oct #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 2d

Most business cycle indicators flat relative to 9 mos ago, incl employment #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 2d

@usbls.bsky.social Dec report - *private* NFP change < consensus; 121K downward revisions in Nov, Oct. #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 3d

West Coast Wkshp Int'l Finance CfP, Apr 10th (deadline Jan 16)
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

“11th Annual West Coast Workshop in International Finance” | Econbrowser

econbrowser.com

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 3d

Employment past peak? #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Menzie Chinn, Trevon D. Logan

Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 3d

Sending another 2,000 armed, masked, armored, federal agents to our community makes us less safe.

Makes us unable to live free.

Makes death.

Makes orphans.
www.mpschools.org

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 4d

ADP private NFP < consensus, large firm empl flat, mfg empl down #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 5d

Subprime auto ABS deterioration #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 5d

Nowcasted "Core GDP" slows @atlantafed.org #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 6d

Is true Russian GDP above or below 2021 levels? #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Antonio Fatás

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 7d

Nonfarm payroll employment estimates @philadelphiafed.bsky.social #Econsky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Menzie Chinn

Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 9d

As we await President Trump's nomination of a new Federal Reserve chair this year, interesting chart from Goldman Sachs, plotting inflation and central bank independence:

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 11d

The year in review, 2025: Prices are *not* lower, but we have a hole in the ground where the East Wing used to be, and we're (eventually) going to get a ballroom... #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 11d

Jeff Frankel: "Why didn't Trump's tariffs crash the economy in 2025?" #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 13d

PLA military exercises around Taiwan, and geoeconomic risks #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Menzie Chinn

Jeff Frankel @jefffrankel.bsky.social · 13d

Tariffs did little damage to US GDP & inflation in 2025. Explanatn? 1. Govt shutdown derailed late-year stats 2. Trump backed off the most extreme tariffs 3. Importers stockpiled ahead 4. Firms absorbed higher prices, rather than passing on fully to consumers. Probably in 2026.
prosyn.org/2Rk6QVY