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Claudia Sahm

@claudia-sahm.bsky.social

16K followers 400 following 410 posts

macro, fiscal, Fed. creator of the Sahm rule recession indicator. Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) Substack.

Claudia Rae Sahm is an American economist, currently serving as Chief Economist for New Century Advisors. She is also the founder of Sahm Consulting. Claudia was formerly director of macroeconomic policy at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, and a Section Chief at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, where she worked in various capacities from 2007 to 2019. Sahm specializes in macroeconomics and household finance. She is best known for the development of the Sahm rule, a Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) indicator for identifying recessions in real-time. .. more

Economics 57%

Business 32%

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Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 8h

It’s a good reason not to hold up the cola. Nice to hear.

Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 8h

Any word on the collection for October CPI? Delay in publishing estimates is a problem; missing the data to do an estimate is an even bigger one.

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Reposted by Claudia Sahm

Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 8h

SCOOP: The Bureau of Labor Statistics is preparing to release the September C.P.I. report despite the shutdown. (Exact date still unclear -- almost certainly not the original Oct. 15 date.) #EconSky #NumbersDay

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Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 2d

"“At a moment like this, as complicated as monetary policy is, if everybody were in agreement, I would actually be worried that they're missing something,” Sahm said." .... Looking forward to the FOMC minutes tomorrow. www.marketplace.org/story/2025/1...

The Fed minutes may hint at what's next for interest rates

The minutes are dry, but they contain clues about what the central bank might do next.

www.marketplace.org

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Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 6d

The President could have designated a handful of BLS employees essential and given us the September employment report today. Instead, we got this ...

Ron Filipkowski @ronfilipkowski.bsky.social · 6d

Posted by the President of the United States.

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Reposted by Claudia Sahm

Tomas Sancio @tsancio.bsky.social · 6d

The @profgalloway.com Markets podcast interviews @claudia-sahm.bsky.social for a take on Fed independence and market reactions overcast.fm/+ABIYtSt8U4I

What Happens if the Fed is Compromised — ft. Claudia Sahm — Prof G Markets

Ed and Scott are joined by Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors and former Fed Section Chief, for a conversation on the Fed’s independence. Claudia weighs in on the health of the U.S....

overcast.fm

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Reposted by Claudia Sahm, Richard S.J. Tol, Mark D. White , and 8 more Claudia Sahm, Richard S.J. Tol, Mark D. White, David Rothschild, Edgar Morgenroth, Alan Richardson, James Goodwin, Aoife O’Donoghue, Dana R. Fisher, Jack Stilgoe, Karen O’Leary

Ron Filipkowski @ronfilipkowski.bsky.social · 6d

Posted by the President of the United States.

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Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 7d

They get the ADP micro data and estimate their own series.

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Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 7d

"Economists stress that the Fed is not flying blind. Sahm said a better description was that the central bank is driving with a dirty windshield.

“They will find ways to bring information in. They have navigated shutdowns before. They will make the best of what they have,” she said."

MarketWatch @marketwatch.com · 7d

The Federal Reserve is already staring down the difficult task of determining interest-rate policy in the midst of a sluggish labor market and high inflation. Now the government shutdown could make the central bank’s job even harder.

Government shutdown means Fed lacks crucial data as it considers rate cuts

It’s a bad time for the data to disappear.

trib.al

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Reposted by Claudia Sahm

MarketWatch @marketwatch.com · 7d

Government shutdown means Fed lacks crucial data as it considers rate cuts

It’s a bad time for the data to disappear.

trib.al

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Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 7d

"The White House’s ‘move fast and break things’ attack on the Fed hit a roadblock yesterday: the Supreme Court."
stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/slow-down-...

Slow down and protect things: Fed independence and the Supreme Court

The White House’s ‘move fast and break things’ attack on the Fed hit a roadblock yesterday: the Supreme Court.

stayathomemacro.substack.com

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Substack

Slow down and protect things: Fed independence and the Supreme Court

The White House’s ‘move fast and break things’ attack on the Fed hit a roadblock yesterday: the Supreme Court.

Reposts 0 7d

Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 8d

Tenure protections are critical to Fed independence. The White House argued that the president can define "cause" for firing without judicial review. If the Supreme Court had found that reasoning ironclad, Cook would've been removed. We might still end up with weak tenure protections, but not today!

Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 8d

Today's decision doesn't end the threats to Fed independence, far from it, but it does slow down the attacks and lowers odds of some worst case scenarios.

For example, Trump won't have a loyalist majority early next year when the Reserve Bank Presidents reviewed. Powell less likely to be fired.

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Reposted by Trevon D. Logan

Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 8d

THIS IS VERY VERY GOOD NEWS.

Anna Bower @annabower.bsky.social · 8d

BREAKING: Supreme Court will allow Lisa Cook to remain on federal reserve board for now, ruling that the government’s application for a stay is deferred pending oral argument in January 2026

CORDER LIST: 606 U.S.)
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 1, 2025
25A312
ORDER IN PENDING CASE
TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF U.S., ET AL. V. COOK, LISA D.
The application for stay presented to The Chief Justice and
by him referred to the Court is deferred pending oral argument in
January 2026. The Clerk is directed to establish a briefing
schedule for amici curiae and any supplemental briefs responding
to amici.

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Reposted by Claudia Sahm, Richard S.J. Tol, David R. Miller

Anna Bower @annabower.bsky.social · 8d

BREAKING: Supreme Court will allow Lisa Cook to remain on federal reserve board for now, ruling that the government’s application for a stay is deferred pending oral argument in January 2026

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Reposted by Claudia Sahm, Olúfẹ́mi Táíwò

George Pearkes @peark.es · 9d

Wow! This is a welcome surprise.

www.cnn.com/2025/09/30/p...

White House withdraws Antoni’s nomination to lead BLS | CNN Politics

The White House has sent paperwork to the Senate to withdraw the nomination of E.J. Antoni as head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, three sources told CNN.

www.cnn.com

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Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 9d

How does the Fed selling assets raise their price (lower the yield)?

Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 9d

Warsh says “interest rates can be made lower.” He draws a distinction between the Fed’s short-term policy rate and long-term rates for mortgages and other financial products. It’s the latter he’s more concerned about. He will lower long rates primarily by ridding the Fed of its financial assets

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Reposted by Claudia Sahm

Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 9d

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Reposted by Claudia Sahm

Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 9d

Warsh: “The data that most economists, including the Fed leadership, rely on, is data that comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Commerce. I don't know a single high quality public company that relies on data that is that dated, that is subject to that much error.”

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Reposted by Claudia Sahm, Menzie Chinn, Rosemary A. Joyce , and 1 more Claudia Sahm, Menzie Chinn, Rosemary A. Joyce, Jon Green

Mike Konczal @mtkonczal.bsky.social · 10d

New post, I finally wrote my thoughts on the Stephen Miran Federal Reserve speech.

I think it shows yet another reason for central bank independence. Without it, you can't tell what's a genuine outsider take and what's just carrying water for the Executive.
mikekonczal.substack.com/p/mirans-cas...

Miran’s Case for Cuts: A Reminder of Why Independence is Essential

Stephen Miran's recent speech highlights not just a debate over r*, but the deeper risks of allowing White House talking points to shape monetary policy.

mikekonczal.substack.com

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Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 10d

I'm not sure how to read it other than making a commitment to lower rates -- data willing or not -- is the playbook.

The Fed is in a time of transition and it's worthwhile listening to people like Bowman and Miran, especially where their views are outside the current norms at the Fed.

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Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 10d

Similar to Miran (and Bessent) in my post, Bowman, in her speech last week, had an anti-data vibe. www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...

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Reposted by Claudia Sahm

Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 10d

JOLTS preview:

1/ Unless we avert a government shutdown, tomorrow morning's JOLTS release (August) will be the last major government update on the labor market for a while.

We saw a teeny bit of hiring softness in June/July, but...

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Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 11d

This season of The Apprentice is getting really old.

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