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jongreen.bsky.social
Jon Green
@jongreen.bsky.social
5K followers 560 following 2.9K posts

Assistant professor, Department of Political Science, Duke University
jgreen4919.github.io

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Political science 25%
Psychology 15%
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jongreen.bsky.social
Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 12h
this should also mean no penalty if the quarterback is in the pocket and accidentally throws it to ~no one because the receiver made a different read
jongreen.bsky.social Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · Oct 24
I think intentional grounding should just be a judgment call. If it’s obvious the throw had no purpose other than to avoid a sack, it’s a sack.

jongreen.bsky.social
Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 14h
old twitter helped users make these decisions by differentiating bigger accounts with external signals of credibility via a blue che…ah dangit

jongreen.bsky.social
Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 14h
the Twitter location thing shows that, even for opinions, you should care *at least a little* that the accounts you’re spending attention on have some external signal of credibility. given a choice of the exact same takes from @Based_Rando1776 or a Federalist contributor, take the latter

Reposted by Jon Green

Reposted by Jon Green, Rebecca Tushnet, Alan Richardson , and 1 more

atrupar.com
Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 18h
Rep. Salazar: "We're gonna be doing a favor to us, to our children, to our economy, to our oil companies to be able to liberate. And to Venezuelans who wants to be free."

jongreen.bsky.social
Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 19h
rise of skywalker in last place is correct because bringing palpatine back is so egregious that it makes the story arc across the rest of the movies worse
danlehner.bsky.social paul khruangbin (Dan Lehner) @danlehner.bsky.social · 22h
haven’t seen ROS or Solo but this seems like a pretty ball-knowing list from Pritzker, particularly if he volunteered the name “Star Wars” rather than “A New Hope”
So, we asked Pritzker to weigh in on the go-to debate for every "Star Wars" nerd: Which movies are the best? Here's his ranking of the 11 major films in the series: 1. "The Empire Strikes Back" (1980) 2. "Star Wars" (1977) 3. "Return of the Jedi" (1983) 4. "Rogue One" (2016) 5. "The Last Jedi" (2017) 6. "Revenge of the Sith" (2005) 7. "The Force Awakens" (2015) 8. "Solo" (2018) 9. "The Phantom Menace" (1999) 10. "Attack of the Clones" (2002) 11. "The Rise of Skywalker" (2019)

Reposted by John Horgan, David H. Kaye, Jon Green , and 2 more

danlehner.bsky.social
paul khruangbin (Dan Lehner) @danlehner.bsky.social · 22h
haven’t seen ROS or Solo but this seems like a pretty ball-knowing list from Pritzker, particularly if he volunteered the name “Star Wars” rather than “A New Hope”
So, we asked Pritzker to weigh in on the go-to debate for every "Star Wars" nerd: Which movies are the best? Here's his ranking of the 11 major films in the series: 1. "The Empire Strikes Back" (1980) 2. "Star Wars" (1977) 3. "Return of the Jedi" (1983) 4. "Rogue One" (2016) 5. "The Last Jedi" (2017) 6. "Revenge of the Sith" (2005) 7. "The Force Awakens" (2015) 8. "Solo" (2018) 9. "The Phantom Menace" (1999) 10. "Attack of the Clones" (2002) 11. "The Rise of Skywalker" (2019)

jongreen.bsky.social
Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 1d
for example, the polls consistently over-index on win/loss rather than point differential relative to expectations. lower-ranked teams are penalized for narrow losses that still exceed expectations; higher-ranked teams are rewarded for narrow wins that don't meet expectations. that's interesting!

jongreen.bsky.social
Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 1d
has anyone in psych or econ written the paper that uses comparisons between week-over-week changes in college football/basketball media polls to corresponding changes in the quantitative rankings to test models of individual/group-level reasoning?

jongreen.bsky.social
Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 2d
our book club read the first Dungeon Crawler Carl a couple months ago and now I’m on book six

Reposted by Jon Green, David R. Miller, Scott A. Imberman

brendannyhan.bsky.social
Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 2d
April: Lizza leaves Politico to found Telos, says "Their style of political coverage is not meeting the unprecedented moment of democratic peril we are facing"

April-Nov.: Breaks no news, makes videos with resistance types (Steve Schmidt! Joe Walsh!)

Now: Breaks actual news about...Nuzzi (sigh)

jongreen.bsky.social
Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 3d
pretty incredible that we’re weeks into a multilayered political sex scandal and the only person who’s come out generally unscathed so far is…Mark freakin Sanford???

Reposted by Will Jennings, Jon Green, Benjamin Braun , and 6 more

sadvil.bsky.social
sadvil 😎 @sadvil.bsky.social · 3d
TRUMP [after spending 5 minutes with Zohran]: surplus value, it’s a very wonderful thing, very wonderful, and they’re stealing it. Can you believe that?

We’re going to be looking very strongly at the bourgeoisie, what they’re up to

jongreen.bsky.social
Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 3d
if "orthodoxy" means "the received wisdom of the institution" that's good if you trust the institution and bad if you don't

jongreen.bsky.social
Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 3d
if they haven't already, someone in sociology should do a study that tracks the embedding location of the word "orthodox" or "orthodoxy" over time. would bet it tracks measures of institutional trust.

jongreen.bsky.social
Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 3d
that's why you should do it!

jongreen.bsky.social
Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 4d
increasingly coming around to this view. it’s not like you get evaluated on a rubric in the kinds of white collar jobs we’re supposedly training these students for

jongreen.bsky.social
Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 4d
one of the things you learn pretty quickly when you try to prompt-engineer a complex task with one of these models is that continuously adding corrections for the last problem will typically introduce new problems
shoe.bsky.social Shoe+ @shoe.bsky.social · 4d
Musk's ego was mortally wounded by Joyce Carol Oates and he's been on a narcissistic supply bender since

Reposted by Jon Green

anamariecox.bsky.social
Ana Marie Cox @anamariecox.bsky.social · 4d
Ok, however much you've thought about this Nuzzi business, I promise I've thought about it more.

newsletter.anamariecox.com/archive/note...
Notes on Your American Canto Draft
I read it. Everyone deserves a good editor, even people who don’t get one. Olivia, Thank you so much for this. I’m impressed with the scope of your ambition...
newsletter.anamariecox.com

Reposted by Will Jennings, Jon Green, Pepper D. Culpepper

shoe.bsky.social
Shoe+ @shoe.bsky.social · 4d
Musk's ego was mortally wounded by Joyce Carol Oates and he's been on a narcissistic supply bender since

jongreen.bsky.social
Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 5d
we used LLMs to help augment/interpret dimensions we inferred using an in-sample method www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

also some stuff out there using pairwise comparisons papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

but this is still very new/cool
Categorizing Topics Versus Inferring Attitudes: A Theory and Method for Analyzing Open-ended Survey Responses | Political Analysis | Cambridge Core
Categorizing Topics Versus Inferring Attitudes: A Theory and Method for Analyzing Open-ended Survey Responses - Volume 33 Issue 3
www.cambridge.org

jongreen.bsky.social
Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 5d
ah, valence

(good stuff, you should read)

Reposted by Joshua S. Weitz, Jon Green, Alan Richardson , and 3 more

gelliottmorris.com
G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 5d
Good morning. I've got a banger new post out today that develops a new method for placing voters on the left-right ideological spectrum, and adds a new, "non-ideological"/affordability axis to usual way we chart & think about US voters (esp swing voters). www.gelliottmorris.com/p/not-just-l...
Not just left vs right: Most voters think about affordability and material wellbeing, not in ideological terms
Most voters want a party that emphasizes cost of living issues and makes the world a better place. Few Americans think in solidly ideologically terms. "Moderates" are mostly non-ideological.
www.gelliottmorris.com

Reposted by Jon Green

jhkirkland1.bsky.social
Justin Kirkland @jhkirkland1.bsky.social · 5d
A lovely trip down to Durham. Thanks @jongreen.bsky.social for the invite!

jongreen.bsky.social
Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 6d
how to solve grade inflation
a traffic sign on campus reading “Max Grade - 10%”

Reposted by Scott L. Greer, Steve Peers, David H. Kaye , and 4 more

mmasnick.bsky.social
Mike Masnick @mmasnick.bsky.social · 6d
This is, of course, a fascinating thread from Kate asking why Google is effectively cannibalizing its own market for both digital ads on third party properties and search ads, by effectively taking away the incentive to click through to third party sites. I have a theory as to why they're doing it.
klonick.bsky.social Kate Klonick @klonick.bsky.social · 6d
So this ad revenue metric is indicative of such a fascinating and weird set of business decisions by Google to inexplicably kill of SEO-- and I honestly don't get how they think this is going to pay off for them in the long run.

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caseynewton.bsky.social Casey Newton @caseynewton.bsky.social · 7d
Stereogum says Google's switch to AI Overviews reduced its ad revenue by *70 percent* www.theverge.com/entertainmen...

Reposted by Jon Green, Rebecca Tushnet, Greg Linden , and 3 more

klonick.bsky.social
Kate Klonick @klonick.bsky.social · 6d
So this ad revenue metric is indicative of such a fascinating and weird set of business decisions by Google to inexplicably kill of SEO-- and I honestly don't get how they think this is going to pay off for them in the long run.

🧵

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Reposted by Marc Lynch, Simon Hix, Ben H. Ansell , and 45 more

joshmccrain.bsky.social
Josh McCrain @joshmccrain.bsky.social · 6d
new paper by Sean Westwood:

With current technology, it is impossible to tell whether survey respondents are real or bots. Among other things, makes it easy for bad actors to manipulate outcomes. No good news here for the future of online-based survey research

jongreen.bsky.social
Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 6d
Schumer putting up Mitch McConnell numbers -- modern party leaders may just be structurally positioned to have bad national favorability ratings?
gelliottmorris.com G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 6d
Zohran Mamdani has a higher favorability rating than Donald Trump, JD Vance or Chuck Schumer. The most popular political figures in America are Barack Obama and Bernie Sanders www.gelliottmorris.com/p/new-poll-d...