Jon Green

@jongreen.bsky.social

5K followers 560 following 2.9K posts

Assistant professor, Department of Political Science, Duke University
jgreen4919.github.io

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Political science 25%

Psychology 15%

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Reposted by Brendan Nyhan, Jon Green

John Herrman @jwherrman.bsky.social · 1h

I'm deeply skeptical of mainstream disinformation discourse, and it's pretty clear that most of the foreign X accounts are just engagment farming. But to the extent they're politically important, it's to X's gathered elites, not the masses nymag.com/intelligence...

X is where the MAGA movement talks to itself in public and where its leading lights cultivate their online personas. They regularly drive themselves insane — or, at least, further to the right. Thinking in terms of a 2016-ish threat model, the risks associated with a huge number of popular political accounts masquerading as Americans on X lay less with the voting public than with the new set of elites that stew in the platform's memes all day, interpreting and internalizing what they see there as evidence of broad support or new political consensus. If we imagine this as proof of a sort of organized scheme or foreign-influence operation, in other words, its target wouldn't be the median American lurker. It would be J.D. Vance, a man who frequently talks, and presumably thinks, in posts.

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 1d

I guess the alternative was a joke about Gobble and Waddle each buying $1 million worth of TrumpCoin

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 1d

Trump: "Instead of pardons, some of my more enthusiastic staffers were already drafting the paperwork to ship Gobble and Waddle straight to the Terrorist Confinement Center in El Salvador."

Reposted by Jon Green, David R. Miller, Caroline T. Schroeder

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 1d

Trump: "Instead of pardons, some of my more enthusiastic staffers were already drafting the paperwork to ship Gobble and Waddle straight to the Terrorist Confinement Center in El Salvador."

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 1d

please don’t get negatively polarized against paper towels

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 1d

this should also mean no penalty if the quarterback is in the pocket and accidentally throws it to ~no one because the receiver made a different read

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · Oct 24

I think intentional grounding should just be a judgment call. If it’s obvious the throw had no purpose other than to avoid a sack, it’s a sack.

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 1d

old twitter helped users make these decisions by differentiating bigger accounts with external signals of credibility via a blue che…ah dangit

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 1d

the Twitter location thing shows that, even for opinions, you should care *at least a little* that the accounts you’re spending attention on have some external signal of credibility. given a choice of the exact same takes from @Based_Rando1776 or a Federalist contributor, take the latter

Reposted by Jon Green

Reposted by Jon Green, Rebecca Tushnet, Alan Richardson , and 1 more Jon Green, Rebecca Tushnet, Alan Richardson, Victor Pickard

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 1d

Rep. Salazar: "We're gonna be doing a favor to us, to our children, to our economy, to our oil companies to be able to liberate. And to Venezuelans who wants to be free."

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 1d

rise of skywalker in last place is correct because bringing palpatine back is so egregious that it makes the story arc across the rest of the movies worse

paul khruangbin (Dan Lehner) @danlehner.bsky.social · 2d

haven’t seen ROS or Solo but this seems like a pretty ball-knowing list from Pritzker, particularly if he volunteered the name “Star Wars” rather than “A New Hope”

So, we asked Pritzker to weigh in on the go-to debate for every "Star Wars" nerd: Which movies are the best? Here's his ranking of the 11 major films in the series:
1. "The Empire Strikes Back" (1980)
2. "Star Wars" (1977)
3. "Return of the Jedi" (1983)
4. "Rogue One" (2016)
5. "The Last Jedi" (2017)
6. "Revenge of the Sith" (2005)
7. "The Force Awakens" (2015)
8. "Solo" (2018)
9. "The Phantom Menace" (1999)
10. "Attack of the Clones" (2002)
11. "The Rise of Skywalker" (2019)

Reposted by John Horgan, David H. Kaye, Jon Green , and 2 more John Horgan, David H. Kaye, Jon Green, Kevin Carey, Scott A. Imberman

paul khruangbin (Dan Lehner) @danlehner.bsky.social · 2d

haven’t seen ROS or Solo but this seems like a pretty ball-knowing list from Pritzker, particularly if he volunteered the name “Star Wars” rather than “A New Hope”

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 2d

for example, the polls consistently over-index on win/loss rather than point differential relative to expectations. lower-ranked teams are penalized for narrow losses that still exceed expectations; higher-ranked teams are rewarded for narrow wins that don't meet expectations. that's interesting!

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 2d

has anyone in psych or econ written the paper that uses comparisons between week-over-week changes in college football/basketball media polls to corresponding changes in the quantitative rankings to test models of individual/group-level reasoning?

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 4d

our book club read the first Dungeon Crawler Carl a couple months ago and now I’m on book six

Reposted by Jon Green, David R. Miller, Scott A. Imberman

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 4d

April: Lizza leaves Politico to found Telos, says "Their style of political coverage is not meeting the unprecedented moment of democratic peril we are facing"

April-Nov.: Breaks no news, makes videos with resistance types (Steve Schmidt! Joe Walsh!)

Now: Breaks actual news about...Nuzzi (sigh)

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 4d

pretty incredible that we’re weeks into a multilayered political sex scandal and the only person who’s come out generally unscathed so far is…Mark freakin Sanford???

Reposted by Will Jennings, Jon Green, Benjamin Braun , and 6 more Will Jennings, Jon Green, Benjamin Braun, McKenzie Wark, Richard Pettigrew, Patrick Stokes, Jon Dean, Olúfẹ́mi Táíwò, Nathan P. Kalmoe

sadvil 😎 @sadvil.bsky.social · 4d

TRUMP [after spending 5 minutes with Zohran]: surplus value, it’s a very wonderful thing, very wonderful, and they’re stealing it. Can you believe that?

We’re going to be looking very strongly at the bourgeoisie, what they’re up to

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 4d

if "orthodoxy" means "the received wisdom of the institution" that's good if you trust the institution and bad if you don't

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 4d

if they haven't already, someone in sociology should do a study that tracks the embedding location of the word "orthodox" or "orthodoxy" over time. would bet it tracks measures of institutional trust.

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 4d

that's why you should do it!

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 5d

increasingly coming around to this view. it’s not like you get evaluated on a rubric in the kinds of white collar jobs we’re supposedly training these students for

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 5d

one of the things you learn pretty quickly when you try to prompt-engineer a complex task with one of these models is that continuously adding corrections for the last problem will typically introduce new problems

Shoe+ @shoe.bsky.social · 5d

Musk's ego was mortally wounded by Joyce Carol Oates and he's been on a narcissistic supply bender since

Reposted by Jon Green

Ana Marie Cox @anamariecox.bsky.social · 5d

Ok, however much you've thought about this Nuzzi business, I promise I've thought about it more.

newsletter.anamariecox.com/archive/note...

Notes on Your American Canto Draft

I read it. Everyone deserves a good editor, even people who don’t get one. Olivia, Thank you so much for this. I’m impressed with the scope of your ambition...

newsletter.anamariecox.com

Reposted by Will Jennings, Jon Green, Pepper D. Culpepper

Shoe+ @shoe.bsky.social · 5d

Musk's ego was mortally wounded by Joyce Carol Oates and he's been on a narcissistic supply bender since

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 6d

we used LLMs to help augment/interpret dimensions we inferred using an in-sample method www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

also some stuff out there using pairwise comparisons papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

but this is still very new/cool

Categorizing Topics Versus Inferring Attitudes: A Theory and Method for Analyzing Open-ended Survey Responses | Political Analysis | Cambridge Core

Categorizing Topics Versus Inferring Attitudes: A Theory and Method for Analyzing Open-ended Survey Responses - Volume 33 Issue 3

www.cambridge.org

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 6d

ah, valence

(good stuff, you should read)

G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 6d

Good morning. I've got a banger new post out today that develops a new method for placing voters on the left-right ideological spectrum, and adds a new, "non-ideological"/affordability axis to usual way we chart & think about US voters (esp swing voters). www.gelliottmorris.com/p/not-just-l...