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Kevin Collins

@kwcollins.bsky.social

12K followers 840 following 29K posts

Co-founder, Survey 160. Loves survey and voter participation. Researcher. Democrat. YIMBY. Husband and Dad. Opinion haver and measurer. Outdoors and cooking enthusiast. He/Him

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · Mar 24

“Forget the myths the media has created about the White House. The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand.”

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 26m

I'll be there, but I'm not going to bring to my kids to this one.

Chris Hayes @chrislhayes.bsky.social · 33m

It’s very much Not Great to have GOP leadership describe a planned non violent march as being in service a the “terrorist wing”

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 43m

Emmer: "This is about one thing and one thing alone -- to score political points with the terrorist wing of their party, which is set to hold a hate America rally in DC next week."

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 31m

This kind of memo from the top leadership is a signal that you do not trust your middle managers to do their jobs. In other words, it's lousy management *and* leadership

Oliver Darcy @oliverdarcy.bsky.social · 55m

News: Bari Weiss just sent a memo to staffers at CBS News asking them to produce a memo explaining "how you spend your working hours—and ideally, what you've made (or are making) that you're most proud of."

One CBS News staffer puts it like this to me: "We just got Elon Musked."

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 34m

I get that we have an airbase in Qatar, but *why* do the Qataris want an airbase in Idaho?

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 46m

Hegseth: "I'm also proud that today we're signing a letter of acceptance to build a Qatari Emeri air force facility at the Mountain Home Airbase in Idaho."

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 1h

I dunno, seems like some pretty consistent differences to me

Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 1h

Disappointing if unsurprising

Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 1h

Lol

Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 1h

Yeah, not saying it's easy

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 1h

I'm guessing that most people get the easy ones, lots miss the hard ones

Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 1h

It would be genuinely interesting to describe different hypothetical immigrants and ask respondents if this person is in the United States legally or illegally, including naturalized citizens, green card holders, asylees, People waiting an asylum hearing, TPS holders, visa overstayers, etc.

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 2h

If not, that could either be a sample problem or an American public problem

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 2h

They also look at YouGov, though I think the American panel

Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 2h

I’m aware of the acquisition, but their representatives have positioned it to me as a rebrand. So I’m not sure if this is what you are getting when you buy lucid today, but I think there’s not a clear distinction at the very least.

Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 3h

I don’t know, and I would also point out that the data here were collected six years ago. But I do like this paper comparing (on other measures) a bunch of panels osf.io/preprints/ps...

OSF

osf.io

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 4h

Pairs well with this paper: osf.io/preprints/ps...

OSF

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osf.io

Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 4h

Cint and other marketplaces like it are also the underlying infrastructure for the political message testing industry, which should give some people a lot of pause.

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 4h

Furthermore, you may be getting the same respondents repeatedly from Lucid. In those estimates, from web-browsing data, 71% of respondents tried to take at least one survey repeatedly , and on average Lucid respondents tried to take 8 separate other surveys repeatedly

Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 4h

And that's the conservative estimate. By other measures, over 70% of Lucid respondents in the study were professional survey takers. For comparison, by that same alternative measure only 16% of YouGov respondents were

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 4h

More than a third of Lucid (now Cint) respondents in 2019 were "professional" respondents according to a new article in @polanalysis.bsky.social , and that's the conservative estimate

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 4h

Corruption Watch

ProPublica @propublica.org · 13h

Kristi Noem, while governor of South Dakota, supplemented her roughly $130,000 salary by secretly accepting $80,000 donated to a political nonprofit she was affiliated with, records show.

She never disclosed this income on federal ethics forms.

(Published June)

Kristi Noem Secretly Took a Cut of Political Donations

A dark money group paid $80,000 to Noem’s personal company when she was governor of South Dakota. She did not include this income on her federal disclosure forms, a likely violation of ethics requirem...

www.propublica.org

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 4h

New in EJPR: "Representation and resentment: Explaining radical-right electoral success"

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Turns out Europe and the US have a lot to learn from one another ...

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 4h

Stand up to tyrants.

Timothy McBride @mcbridetd.bsky.social · 6h

BREAKING NEWS
The Norwegian Nobel Committee has decided to award the 2025 #NobelPeacePrize to Maria Corina Machado for her tireless work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela and for her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy.

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 4h

This was two months ago:

bsky.app/profile/kwco...

Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · Aug 11

The Source on screen is "Enten's Aggregate", so let's assume it's an average (which, sure, that's fine) but *CNN's* model average is currently 42% approval (see the second screenshot above). Is Harry Enten just doing his own poll averaging *separate* from CNN? What is included in his bespoke avg?

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 4h

"What the heck even is 'Enten's Aggregate'?" would be a good subject for a newsletter, @gelliottmorris.com . He's been using it to make some very dubious claims for some time now.

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 4h

Hey @lawfaremedia.org now that this domestic propaganda has stepped into the national security space and your area of coverage, can we get an article or a pod about how the Hatch Act (maybe even the Smith-Mundt Modernization Act?) applies here?

Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 5h

If Dems are in control, why are they airing this on the airport TVs?
www.cnn.com/2025/10/09/u...

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 5h

Notably, not the story you get from CNN's own approval average, which I acknowledge is not the same measure as favorability but still www.cnn.com/polling/appr...

CNN Poll of Polls: Trump approval rating | CNN Politics

Averages of President Donald Trump’s latest approval ratings.

www.cnn.com

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