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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 19h

Alberto Cavallo on consumer prices deviation from trend, post-Trump trade war start #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 20h

US ag exports - prospects in the Trump 2.0 era #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 23h

Trump slams the ag sector, so govt financial support is needed (again!) #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 1d

Are we in a recession? The heavy truck sales indicator suggests so (but Sahm rule doesn not) #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 1d

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 2d

What data releases will we miss? What data are not being collected if the shutdown goes 22 days (current Kalshi estimate)? #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 3d

Betting is on gov't shutdown to 21 Oct or so - so maybe no CPI release for you (for a while)! Nowcasts suggest accelerated CPI (instantaneous) inflation, steady core #EconSky @janeeckhout.bsky.social
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 4d

ADP-Stanford Digital Economy Lab private NFP series for firms 1-499 suggests downturn #Econsky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Reposted by Menzie Chinn

Aaron Reichlin-Melnick @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social · 6d

What DHS pulled in Chicago on Tuesday is wildly unconstitutional. They smashed down almost every door in the building, dragged entire families into the street, and detained people for hours ("Kavanaugh stops").

Ms. Fisher was held for five hours and another senior citizen was held for three hours.

Rodrick Johnson, 67, is one of many residents who were detained by federal agents during the South Shore raid. A U.S. citizen, he said agents broke through his door and dragged him out in zip ties.

Johnson said he was left tied up outside the building for nearly three hours before agents finally let him go.

“I asked [agents] why they were holding me if I was an American citizen, and they said I had to wait until they looked me up,” Jones said. “I asked if they had a warrant, and I asked for a lawyer. They never brought one.”

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Reposted by Menzie Chinn

Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 5d

Trump's CEA is circulating its estimate of the economic cost of the government shutdown.

But, BREAKING: It's wrong. It makes a simple arithmetic error. And it's dishonest.

Surprising, I know. 🧵

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 5d

Agree, egregious. Is it worse than Trump 1.0 Hassett CEA chair using polynomial to predict Covid fatalities? Hard to say...

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Reposted by Menzie Chinn

Michael Hicks @profhicks.bsky.social · 5d

Proud to talk to the NYT about freedom of expression.

www.nytimes.com/2025/09/29/u...

She Was Fired for a Comment on Her Private Facebook Account

www.nytimes.com

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 6d

FT-Booth f'cast implies no catch-up to 2023-24 trajectory #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 6d

Point estimate suggests drop in BLS private NFP, but broad prediction interval #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 6d

I feel so much better looking at ADP data alone... (EJ Antoni memorial comment) #EconSky
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 7d

#EconSky @uwmadison.bsky.social
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 7d

Rejoice! #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 7d

World Bank on the importance of boosting investment in EMDEs #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 7d

Jamel Saadaoui on identifying geopolitical turning points #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 7d

Random thought: EJ Antoni might get his wish for quarterly employment releases if the shutdown lasts long enough... (although if there are no working employees to do follow up requests for firms to answer their surveys, not sure how much more accurate numbers will be after a month delay...) #EconSky

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 7d

#EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

CBO on Economic Costs of a Shutdown | Econbrowser

econbrowser.com

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 7d

Confirmed: Confidence/Sentiment down #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Reposted by Menzie Chinn

Mike Konczal @mtkonczal.bsky.social · 8d

New post, I finally wrote my thoughts on the Stephen Miran Federal Reserve speech.

I think it shows yet another reason for central bank independence. Without it, you can't tell what's a genuine outsider take and what's just carrying water for the Executive.
mikekonczal.substack.com/p/mirans-cas...

Miran’s Case for Cuts: A Reminder of Why Independence is Essential

Stephen Miran's recent speech highlights not just a debate over r*, but the deeper risks of allowing White House talking points to shape monetary policy.

mikekonczal.substack.com

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 8d

#EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 8d

The Trump Shock and the deviations of GDP and "Core GDP" from trend are different... #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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