Justin Wolfers
@justinwolfers.bsky.social
95K followers 370 following 1.7K posts
Econ professor at Michigan ● Senior fellow, Brookings and PIIE ● Intro econ textbook author ● Think Like An Economist podcast ● An economist willing to admit that the glass really is half full.
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Reposted by Justin Wolfers
justinwolfers.bsky.social
I sat down for a nice long chat on the Nick Standlea Show
about the economics of AI: How it's changing our labor market, who it's going to help and hurt, how policy can help, and what each of us can do to stay relevant.

Posted to my (fledgling) youtube channel here:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=oful...
The AI Revolution Is an Ownership Problem, Not a Tech Problem — Economist Justin Wolfers
YouTube video by The Nick Standlea Show
www.youtube.com
justinwolfers.bsky.social
I sat down for a nice long chat on the Nick Standlea Show
about the economics of AI: How it's changing our labor market, who it's going to help and hurt, how policy can help, and what each of us can do to stay relevant.

Posted to my (fledgling) youtube channel here:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=oful...
The AI Revolution Is an Ownership Problem, Not a Tech Problem — Economist Justin Wolfers
YouTube video by The Nick Standlea Show
www.youtube.com
justinwolfers.bsky.social
Every one of them deserves my care, respect, and the best education I can give them.
justinwolfers.bsky.social
If you tax trucks 🚛, trucking in your inputs gets pricier.

That means flying ✈️ or shipping 🚢 looks better.

Where do planes and boats come from?

Yes, this just made transporting inputs from abroad *more* competitive.

It's like taxing bikes to reduce road congestion.
justinwolfers.bsky.social
It had been hours since the President had announced a tariff change, and all of this stability was killing the economy. He had to act to provide the American people with the uncertainty they deserve.
justinwolfers.bsky.social
Anyway, just wanted to share, in case other faculty are thinking about this. #teachecon

It's particularly resonant for me because so many of my students are freshmen, and they're trying to navigate choices that have gotten more treacherous than they need to be.
justinwolfers.bsky.social
Took a moment in class to remind my undergrads to get their flu and covid jabs. Not my usual role as an econ prof, but right now they have too few trusted voices. And if others are trying to avoid political strife (this ISN'T political!!!), my students may not be hearing it elsewhere.
justinwolfers.bsky.social
For folks looking for some of the studies on high-skill immigration that I referenced, you can't go past this review by @mclem.org: www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
justinwolfers.bsky.social
For all of the (manufactured) passion about the quality of labor statistics, Trump administration has left the BLS leaderless for months, is no closer to a replacement, and has left many of the leadership posts within the organization empty. And no-one is allowed to come to work right now, either.
justinwolfers.bsky.social
I did a bit of reporting (aka talking to my better half, Betsy Stevenson—ex-Labor chief economist & Obama CEA). Her read from the last shutdown: some senior officials saw the jobs number even as the public waited. This time may rhyme.
justinwolfers.bsky.social
Economics isn’t about jumping at every data point. It’s about weighing evidence — especially when some of it’s noisy. The ADP jobs number is one clue, not the whole case.
Reposted by Justin Wolfers
justinwolfers.bsky.social
Hey, folks at the White House and the Council of Economic Advisers! You guys ready to issue a correction yet?

This isn't controversial: It's arithmetic. Indeed, it's your arithmetic, but I fixed your errors.
justinwolfers.bsky.social
Trump's CEA is circulating its estimate of the economic cost of the government shutdown.

But, BREAKING: It's wrong. It makes a simple arithmetic error. And it's dishonest.

Surprising, I know. 🧵
justinwolfers.bsky.social
The expected duration of this shutdown keeps rising.
justinwolfers.bsky.social
Hey, that's my Econ 101 students! Talking econ! In the public square! With the great @svaneksmith.bsky.social!

Love you guys.
justinwolfers.bsky.social
Think of the economy as like baking a cake. H‑1B visas supply missing ingredients -- high skill STEM workers. If Trump cuts off access: fewer projects get baked, worse recipes get used, or we import the cake. None of those make Americans better off. #TheProfessorIsIn #TeachEcon
justinwolfers.bsky.social
The numbers say H-1Bs raise wages, boost patents, and drive productivity.

The story is that H-1Bs aren’t just “workers”—they’re engines of innovation. They're the strivers who crossed the ocean, and brought their fresh new ideas with them.
justinwolfers.bsky.social
Research shows:
More H-1Bs → more patents
Fewer H-1Bs → more offshoring

Your choice, America.
justinwolfers.bsky.social
If H‑1Bs “took jobs,” you’d expect lower wages for U.S. grads. The best available studies show the opposite: 1990–2010 H‑1B inflows raised wages of American college grads by 4.2% and non‑college by ~2%, with native employment unchanged.

Think complements, not substitutes.
justinwolfers.bsky.social
A shutdown is Washington burning your money to send a message. Work won't get done but workers will get paid. Same cost, less benefit.
justinwolfers.bsky.social
Hey, folks at the White House and the Council of Economic Advisers! You guys ready to issue a correction yet?

This isn't controversial: It's arithmetic. Indeed, it's your arithmetic, but I fixed your errors.
justinwolfers.bsky.social
Trump's CEA is circulating its estimate of the economic cost of the government shutdown.

But, BREAKING: It's wrong. It makes a simple arithmetic error. And it's dishonest.

Surprising, I know. 🧵
justinwolfers.bsky.social
Turns out the check wasn’t presidential restraint; it was Senate reality: even they won’t confirm "a partisan hack, a clown, someone who's relentlessly unqualified" to run the BLS.

That’s a relief—and a reminder that institutions still push back when norms are tested.