Holger Nehring

@holgernehring.bsky.social

1.3K followers 1.2K following 1.4K posts

Contemporary historian #ColdWar #diplomacy

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Political science 53%

History 22%

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Reposted by Holger Nehring

Chaminda Jayanetti @cjayanetti.bsky.social · 22h

And I think this is where the problem is. You don't have to give intellectual speeches - few people would listen or engage. But you have to be able to think your way through to your positions and policies. Which Blair did.

Holger Nehring @holgernehring.bsky.social · 23h

Doesn't the UK taxpayer do similar things already?...E.g. datacentres as alleged drivers of regional growth; regional airports as alleged drivers for regional growth when they have already been shown not to be profitable (Doncaster)...and the public money does not necessarily stay in the UK.

Holger Nehring @holgernehring.bsky.social · 23h

I did.

Reposted by Holger Nehring

timoconnorbl.bsky.social @timoconnorbl.bsky.social · 1d

Pretty much anything wild boar is amazing.

Holger Nehring @holgernehring.bsky.social · 1d

I think we know what the wrong answer was. The country the UK needs to pay much more attention to is Switzerland - obvs a very different economy in some ways & different issues, but similar challenges on all levels. UK can see there what works and what doesn't.

Holger Nehring @holgernehring.bsky.social · 1d

The UK position seems to have been to offer to pay 50p when the ask is 1000 pounds or more. Whoever is responsible for that UK negotiation strategy should be fired, especially, as you rightly say, agreement should be possible.

Holger Nehring @holgernehring.bsky.social · 1d

Got told by a GP today 'Trust me, you must have neck pain based on what you say'.

The problem is I really don't.

So, what am I to conclude with regard to my trust in the ability of said GP? [Rhetorical question].

Reposted by Tim Bale, Charles West, Martin Tomko , and 9 more Tim Bale, Charles West, Martin Tomko, Peter Campbell, Anders Nilsson, Lilian Edwards, Holger Nehring, Fiona Moore, Urška Demšar, Greg Linden, Prokla Redaktion, Pádua Fernandes

Hetan Shah @hetanshah.bsky.social · 1d

Your universe is a photocopy of a photocopy of a…
on.ft.com/4ahkNKa

Al-generated content has surpassed human-written articles
Graph

Holger Nehring @holgernehring.bsky.social · 1d

Ein sehr großer Verlust für die ARD...aber sehr schön, dass Sie in London bleiben.

Reposted by Holger Nehring

Katrina Navickas @katrinanavickas.bsky.social · 2d

I was teaching the history of racial discrimination in housing in Britain 1958-1981 to my wonderful cohort of 3rd year undergraduates.
I showed them an example of the "no Irish, no Blacks, no Dogs" sign, and got the genuine question of why anti- Irish sentiment existed in 20thC Britain.

Dan Kaszeta FRHistS @dankaszeta.bsky.social · 2d

Lots of British racists don’t really consider Eastern Europeans to be white. If you go back a ways in UK history you get people considering Irish as not quite white

Reposted by Ben H. Ansell, Holger Nehring, Molly Scott Cato

Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 2d

Another very large decline in net migration in today's ONS figures, with immigration falling and emigration rising. I'm sure this will get just as much media and political coverage as the earlier sharp rises, right? www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

Long-term international migration, provisional - Office for National Statistics

Estimates of UK long-term international migration, year ending June 2012 to year ending December 2024.

www.ons.gov.uk

Reposted by Holger Nehring

John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 2d

So it's really just a 'best guess', and explains why the OBR thinks the government has about a 60% chance of meeting its fiscal rules. It's all very knife-edge, and it would have been more prudent to be make more reforms, however politically difficult.

obr.uk/briefing-pap...

Briefing paper No.9: Forecasting productivity - Office for Budget Responsibility

obr.uk

Holger Nehring @holgernehring.bsky.social · 2d

Sorry...should have read the rest of your thread...you say as much there.

Holger Nehring @holgernehring.bsky.social · 2d

But it wasn't only about modified vehicles. It's basically about using the mobility allowance to lease a car. I am still puzzled by this new policy, though: removing Audis etc does not change the fact that people who need it still get the mobility allowance. So what's the point of the new policy?

Reposted by Holger Nehring, Nicolai von Ondarza

John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 2d

The most interesting OBR paper yesterday was the one that didn't leak - the justification for their productivity downgrade. There's a very important assumption in it that could make or break the government.

Holger Nehring @holgernehring.bsky.social · 2d

'The ship is heading towards an iceberg: let’s not do anything drastic like change course. That wasn’t Rachel Reeves’ explicit message in the Budget but it might as well have been.'

Some great analysis here.

Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 2d

The second year of magical thinking: this evening's newsletter on the Budget:

Rachel Reeves doubles down on wishful thinking

A government that can’t make tough choices now is unlikely to do so on the eve of an election

www.ft.com

Holger Nehring @holgernehring.bsky.social · 2d

This is important.

Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 2d

Threshold for repaying student loans to converge with minimum wage on.ft.com/3M2AYkD

Threshold for repaying student loans to converge with minimum wage

Surprise move from chancellor means some university graduates in England may have to pay back debts sooner

on.ft.com

Reposted by Holger Nehring

Elle @centristmum.bsky.social · 2d

I hadn't thought of this aspect of why the salary sacrifice change is insane... Imagine thinking it's a good idea to have bigger disincentives for ordinary people saving for retirement than for high income people saving for retirement. It's obviously a terrible idea!

Reposted by Diane Coyle, Richard S.J. Tol, Holger Nehring , and 1 more Diane Coyle, Richard S.J. Tol, Holger Nehring, Calvin Jones

Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 2d

Threshold for repaying student loans to converge with minimum wage on.ft.com/3M2AYkD

Threshold for repaying student loans to converge with minimum wage

Surprise move from chancellor means some university graduates in England may have to pay back debts sooner

on.ft.com

Reposted by Holger Nehring

Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 2d

The second year of magical thinking: this evening's newsletter on the Budget:

Rachel Reeves doubles down on wishful thinking

A government that can’t make tough choices now is unlikely to do so on the eve of an election

www.ft.com

Reposted by Holger Nehring

Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 2d

Tax take raised to 38% of GDP (normal European levels), mansion tax, one of the highest wage floors in the world, rail nationalised, two child benefit cap reversed, industrial policy, etc etc.

Reposted by Ben H. Ansell, Will Jennings, Jonathan Hopkin , and 1 more Ben H. Ansell, Will Jennings, Jonathan Hopkin, Holger Nehring

Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 2d

The fundamental political-economy for the government is that is objectively implementing a soft left economic policy on speed whilst being hated by lots of left leaning people because of its other policies and rhetoric.

Reposted by Holger Nehring

Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 3d

The government’s spending plans are “25-27: spending increases, 27-29: paaaain” which, uh…the election is 2028-9!

Reposted by Tim Bale, Holger Nehring, Jill Rutter

Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 3d

Minor point. But this is the OBR saying that the briefing about income tax being dropped because of improved forecasts is bollocks.

Reposted by Holger Nehring

Jessica Elgot @jessicaelgot.bsky.social · 3d

If I didn't know better I'd call this a conspiracy to abolish the OBR

Holger Nehring @holgernehring.bsky.social · 3d

Campus this morning.

Holger Nehring @holgernehring.bsky.social · 5d

👇

Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 5d

Essentially the best way to run a railway is for it to be owned by a development corporation, and then frankly whether that corporation is state owned or privately owned is sort of a much of a muchness:

The missing piece in Labour’s rail renationalisation scheme

Whether trains are public or private is not the deal-breaker for a well-functioning service — it is about a better delivery model

www.ft.com

Reposted by Holger Nehring, Paul Nightingale

Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 5d

The missing piece in Labour’s rail renationalisation scheme

Whether trains are public or private is not the deal-breaker for a well-functioning service — it is about a better delivery model

www.ft.com

Reposted by Steve Peers, Holger Nehring

Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 5d

Yes, there are spending multipliers etc - and yes, Kuenssberg spouted vacuous talking points.

BUT.

There is a bond market (or more generally a macro) constraint to borrowing, as there was in the 2010s - we just weren't near it then. Dodging the issue/pretending it doesn't exist isn't a policy.

Saul Staniforth @saulstaniforth.bsky.social · 6d

@zackpolanski.bsky.social on the importance of spending multipliers & borrowing to invest

Zack is, without doubt, a great communicator. And on him talking about democracy & the bond markets I'm reminded of Eddie Dempsey at the Durham Miners Gala when he asked "who elected the bond market?"

Reposted by Holger Nehring, Jonathan Birch, Catriona Seth

Margot Finn @eicathomefinn.bsky.social · 5d

'Ahead of the autumn budget on 26 November, Universities UK (UUK) has calculated that funding per student for teaching in 2025-26 is at 64 per cent of the level it was in 2015-16.' 1/3

University teaching income ‘£6.4 billon less’ than 10 years ago

UUK says shortfall in teaching money is ‘baked in’ to higher education funding system as institutions brace for new tax in upcoming budget

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