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Measuring investor sentiment using millions of social media posts with GIFs. GIF sentiment negatively predicts aggregate stock market returns up to 4 weeks ahead, from Ming Gu, David Hirshleifer, Siew Hong Teoh, and Shijia Wu www.nber.org/papers/w34636
January 9, 2026 at 4:03 PM
Measuring investor sentiment using millions of social media posts with GIFs. GIF sentiment negatively predicts aggregate stock market returns up to 4 weeks ahead, from Ming Gu, David Hirshleifer, Siew Hong Teoh, and Shijia Wu www.nber.org/papers/w34636
Using data from Denmark to examine the impact of having a parent with dementia on adult children’s labor market, physical health, and mental health outcomes, from Onur Altındağ, Jane Greve, and Yulya Truskinovsky www.nber.org/papers/w34635
January 9, 2026 at 2:03 PM
Using data from Denmark to examine the impact of having a parent with dementia on adult children’s labor market, physical health, and mental health outcomes, from Onur Altındağ, Jane Greve, and Yulya Truskinovsky www.nber.org/papers/w34635
Featured in the latest Digest: The Economic Costs of Noise Pollution from Aircraft and Traffic
www.nber.org/digest/20260...
www.nber.org/digest/20260...
January 9, 2026 at 1:01 PM
Featured in the latest Digest: The Economic Costs of Noise Pollution from Aircraft and Traffic
www.nber.org/digest/20260...
www.nber.org/digest/20260...
In many-instrument IV designs, shrinking noisy first-stage propensities improves JIVE precision without new assumptions, while preserving the same LATE, from Brigham R. Frandsen, Lars J. Lefgren, Emily C. Leslie, and Samuel P. McIntyre www.nber.org/papers/w34634
January 9, 2026 at 12:00 AM
In many-instrument IV designs, shrinking noisy first-stage propensities improves JIVE precision without new assumptions, while preserving the same LATE, from Brigham R. Frandsen, Lars J. Lefgren, Emily C. Leslie, and Samuel P. McIntyre www.nber.org/papers/w34634
Among Italian jobseekers, resistance to reskilling is found to stem from identity fit rather than wages; training interest and take-up are increased by better information, from Alexia Delfino, @agarnero.bsky.social, Sergio Inferrera, Marco Leonardi, and Raffaella Sadun www.nber.org/papers/w34633
January 8, 2026 at 10:01 PM
Among Italian jobseekers, resistance to reskilling is found to stem from identity fit rather than wages; training interest and take-up are increased by better information, from Alexia Delfino, @agarnero.bsky.social, Sergio Inferrera, Marco Leonardi, and Raffaella Sadun www.nber.org/papers/w34633
Constructing a new dataset of FOMC meeting transcripts from 1966 to 1990 to analyze the sources of heterogeneity in individual monetary policy preferences and how this heterogeneity shapes policy, from Howes, Dordal i Carreras, Coibion, and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w34632
January 8, 2026 at 8:02 PM
Constructing a new dataset of FOMC meeting transcripts from 1966 to 1990 to analyze the sources of heterogeneity in individual monetary policy preferences and how this heterogeneity shapes policy, from Howes, Dordal i Carreras, Coibion, and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w34632
Motivated by evidence on payment linkages in supply chains, introducing an endogenous payment-chain network in a business-cycle model where delays slow production and reduce TFP, from Saki Bigio, Esteban Méndez, and Diana Van Patten www.nber.org/papers/w34631
January 8, 2026 at 6:03 PM
Motivated by evidence on payment linkages in supply chains, introducing an endogenous payment-chain network in a business-cycle model where delays slow production and reduce TFP, from Saki Bigio, Esteban Méndez, and Diana Van Patten www.nber.org/papers/w34631
When temporary foreign workers in Canada obtain permanent residency it leads to increased job mobility, earnings, and sorting into high-wage firms, from Kory Kroft, Isaac Norwich, Matthew J. Notowidigdo, and Stephen Tino www.nber.org/papers/w34630
January 8, 2026 at 4:01 PM
When temporary foreign workers in Canada obtain permanent residency it leads to increased job mobility, earnings, and sorting into high-wage firms, from Kory Kroft, Isaac Norwich, Matthew J. Notowidigdo, and Stephen Tino www.nber.org/papers/w34630
While the debt-to-GDP ratio has reached historically high levels in most countries, interest-to-GDP, and debt-to-equity show either no clear trend or a declining pattern, from Jonathan B. Berk and Jules H. van Binsbergen www.nber.org/papers/w34629
January 8, 2026 at 2:01 PM
While the debt-to-GDP ratio has reached historically high levels in most countries, interest-to-GDP, and debt-to-equity show either no clear trend or a declining pattern, from Jonathan B. Berk and Jules H. van Binsbergen www.nber.org/papers/w34629
Developing a unified theory of delegated capital management by extending from mutual funds to alternative assets. Explaining the important observed regularities such as performance fees, persistent alpha, and limits on capital, from Jonathan B. Berk and Peter M. DeMarzo www.nber.org/papers/w34628
January 8, 2026 at 12:01 AM
Developing a unified theory of delegated capital management by extending from mutual funds to alternative assets. Explaining the important observed regularities such as performance fees, persistent alpha, and limits on capital, from Jonathan B. Berk and Peter M. DeMarzo www.nber.org/papers/w34628
Using firm-level data and a quantitative general-equilibrium model to show how multinational enterprises propagate local corporate tax reforms to the global economy, from Sebastian Dyrda, Guangbin Hong, Muhammad Ali Sajid, and Joseph B. Steinberg www.nber.org/papers/w34627
January 7, 2026 at 10:01 PM
Using firm-level data and a quantitative general-equilibrium model to show how multinational enterprises propagate local corporate tax reforms to the global economy, from Sebastian Dyrda, Guangbin Hong, Muhammad Ali Sajid, and Joseph B. Steinberg www.nber.org/papers/w34627
China’s monetary policy doesn’t stop at its borders. New evidence shows strong spillovers to commodities, trade, global output, and even US prices. Trade, not finance, drives them, from Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, Tsvetelina Nenova, and Hélène Rey www.nber.org/papers/w34626
January 7, 2026 at 8:01 PM
China’s monetary policy doesn’t stop at its borders. New evidence shows strong spillovers to commodities, trade, global output, and even US prices. Trade, not finance, drives them, from Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, Tsvetelina Nenova, and Hélène Rey www.nber.org/papers/w34626
Shedding early light on the effects of the CHIPS and Science Act on short-term employment, from Bilge Erten, Joseph E. Stiglitz, and @ericverhoogen.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w34625
January 7, 2026 at 6:03 PM
Shedding early light on the effects of the CHIPS and Science Act on short-term employment, from Bilge Erten, Joseph E. Stiglitz, and @ericverhoogen.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w34625
Examining the impact of the European Union’s Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation on mutual fund flows and investment sustainability, from Hunt Allcott, Mark L. Egan, Paul Smeets, and Hanbin Yang www.nber.org/papers/w34624
January 7, 2026 at 4:01 PM
Examining the impact of the European Union’s Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation on mutual fund flows and investment sustainability, from Hunt Allcott, Mark L. Egan, Paul Smeets, and Hanbin Yang www.nber.org/papers/w34624
Introducing OASIS, which maximizes alignment between structural and reduced-form shocks without ad-hoc ordering assumptions, from Neville Francis, Peter Reinhard Hansen, and Chen Tong www.nber.org/papers/w34623
January 7, 2026 at 2:01 PM
Introducing OASIS, which maximizes alignment between structural and reduced-form shocks without ad-hoc ordering assumptions, from Neville Francis, Peter Reinhard Hansen, and Chen Tong www.nber.org/papers/w34623
Featured in the latest Digest: Projecting Federal Deficits and Debt
www.nber.org/digest/20260...
www.nber.org/digest/20260...
January 7, 2026 at 1:01 PM
Featured in the latest Digest: Projecting Federal Deficits and Debt
www.nber.org/digest/20260...
www.nber.org/digest/20260...
Predicting realistic cash holdings needs more than financing frictions and persistent productivity shocks—short-run productivity shocks are essential, from Nan Chen, Xavier Giroud, Ling Qin, and Neng Wang www.nber.org/papers/w34622
January 7, 2026 at 12:00 AM
Predicting realistic cash holdings needs more than financing frictions and persistent productivity shocks—short-run productivity shocks are essential, from Nan Chen, Xavier Giroud, Ling Qin, and Neng Wang www.nber.org/papers/w34622
Discussing the distinctive concerns of household finance in relation to other fields of financial economics, and outlining directions for the future growth of the field, from John Y. Campbell and Tarun Ramadorai www.nber.org/papers/w34621
January 6, 2026 at 10:00 PM
Discussing the distinctive concerns of household finance in relation to other fields of financial economics, and outlining directions for the future growth of the field, from John Y. Campbell and Tarun Ramadorai www.nber.org/papers/w34621
The tariff impact hasn’t been larger due to delays and exceptions, meaning the actual rate is only half the announced rate, from Gita Gopinath and Brent Neiman www.nber.org/papers/w34620
January 6, 2026 at 8:02 PM
The tariff impact hasn’t been larger due to delays and exceptions, meaning the actual rate is only half the announced rate, from Gita Gopinath and Brent Neiman www.nber.org/papers/w34620
Open call for papers, Economic Analysis of Regulation. Conference to be held in Cambridge, MA on April 24, 2026. Submit papers by 11:59pm EDT on February 10, 2026. More information: www.nber.org/calls-papers...
January 6, 2026 at 7:25 PM
Open call for papers, Economic Analysis of Regulation. Conference to be held in Cambridge, MA on April 24, 2026. Submit papers by 11:59pm EDT on February 10, 2026. More information: www.nber.org/calls-papers...
A review of recent developments, both micro and macro, in formal theory on stratification economics, with a focus on racial disparities, efficiency, and social welfare, from Brendan Brundage, Dan J. McGee, and Daniele Tavani www.nber.org/papers/w34619
January 6, 2026 at 6:01 PM
A review of recent developments, both micro and macro, in formal theory on stratification economics, with a focus on racial disparities, efficiency, and social welfare, from Brendan Brundage, Dan J. McGee, and Daniele Tavani www.nber.org/papers/w34619
Banks have a dual mandate to raise cheap funding and be stable. But with tight monetary policy, they adopt excessive opacity to reduce deposit rates at the cost of more fragility, from Ana Babus, Maryam Farboodi, and Gabriela Stockler www.nber.org/papers/w34618
January 6, 2026 at 4:01 PM
Banks have a dual mandate to raise cheap funding and be stable. But with tight monetary policy, they adopt excessive opacity to reduce deposit rates at the cost of more fragility, from Ana Babus, Maryam Farboodi, and Gabriela Stockler www.nber.org/papers/w34618
Growth in Business Development Companies is intimately connected to growth in private equity, from David T. Robinson and Melanie Wallskog www.nber.org/papers/w34617
January 6, 2026 at 2:01 PM
Growth in Business Development Companies is intimately connected to growth in private equity, from David T. Robinson and Melanie Wallskog www.nber.org/papers/w34617
Welfare economics with multiple generations is fundamentally different. This paper shows why demographics create scope for intervention even when equilibria are Pareto efficient, from Sergi Barcons, Eduardo Dávila, and Andreas Schaab www.nber.org/papers/w34616
January 5, 2026 at 10:01 PM
Welfare economics with multiple generations is fundamentally different. This paper shows why demographics create scope for intervention even when equilibria are Pareto efficient, from Sergi Barcons, Eduardo Dávila, and Andreas Schaab www.nber.org/papers/w34616
Building a daily global dataset of cross-border flow restrictions since the 1950s using LLMs, capturing instruments, timing, intensity, and direction of policy actions, from Katharina Bergant, Andrés Fernández, Ken Teoh, and Martín Uribe www.nber.org/papers/w34615
January 5, 2026 at 9:00 PM
Building a daily global dataset of cross-border flow restrictions since the 1950s using LLMs, capturing instruments, timing, intensity, and direction of policy actions, from Katharina Bergant, Andrés Fernández, Ken Teoh, and Martín Uribe www.nber.org/papers/w34615