Peterson Institute for International Economics
@piie.com
The Peterson Institute for International Economics is a nonpartisan, independent research institution devoted to studying international economic policy.
Explore our research: piie.com
Explore our research: piie.com
From a savings-investment perspective, the housing crisis is a major driver of China’s growing external imbalance, Tianlei Huang says.
He explains China's housing downturn & what comes next:
He explains China's housing downturn & what comes next:
Understanding China's Housing Downturn and the Path Ahead - The US-China Business Council
USCBC interviews Tianlei Huang, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, on China's prolonged property downturn, government efforts to stabilize the market, and remaining c...
www.uschina.org
January 9, 2026 at 5:35 PM
From a savings-investment perspective, the housing crisis is a major driver of China’s growing external imbalance, Tianlei Huang says.
He explains China's housing downturn & what comes next:
He explains China's housing downturn & what comes next:
monitoring the situation
(refreshing the feed for jobs day analysis and possible SCOTUS IEEPA decision)
(refreshing the feed for jobs day analysis and possible SCOTUS IEEPA decision)
January 9, 2026 at 2:54 PM
monitoring the situation
(refreshing the feed for jobs day analysis and possible SCOTUS IEEPA decision)
(refreshing the feed for jobs day analysis and possible SCOTUS IEEPA decision)
Europe’s recent modification of its restrictions on genetically engineered crops is a step towards freeing poorer countries to make their own science-based choices & accelerate crop innovation where it is most needed. @cullenhendrix.bsky.social explains:
Europe's new biotech rules could buttress global food security
The European Union recently agreed to ease restrictions on new genomic techniques (NGTs) for food, in the most significant change to Europe’s stringent regulatory approach to crop biotechnology in two...
www.piie.com
January 8, 2026 at 2:26 PM
Europe’s recent modification of its restrictions on genetically engineered crops is a step towards freeing poorer countries to make their own science-based choices & accelerate crop innovation where it is most needed. @cullenhendrix.bsky.social explains:
Not "too big to fail"— @adamposen.bsky.social sees a different but equally troubling problem with stablecoin issuers: “too connected to fail.” The companies are politically connected with private money linked to the White House & stablecoins are tied to US govt debt.
Economic heavyweights sound alarm over new currency – top economist fears panic
His analysis is deeply unsettling. The United States is in the middle of a financial experiment. If it goes wrong, it could end in a financial crisis 2.0.
www.piie.com
January 7, 2026 at 5:21 PM
Not "too big to fail"— @adamposen.bsky.social sees a different but equally troubling problem with stablecoin issuers: “too connected to fail.” The companies are politically connected with private money linked to the White House & stablecoins are tied to US govt debt.
Ukraine will require at least $40 billion/year from foreign & domestic investment during the first decade after the war ends. Policymakers should prioritize reforms to raise investment, attract reliable external finance, & reduce uncertainty for investors.
You only live twice: Financial inflows and growth in a westward-facing Ukraine
The monumental task of rebuilding postwar Ukraine requires early planning and identification of growth strategies. The earlier accession of Eastern European countries to the European Union and NATO of...
www.piie.com
January 7, 2026 at 2:20 PM
Ukraine will require at least $40 billion/year from foreign & domestic investment during the first decade after the war ends. Policymakers should prioritize reforms to raise investment, attract reliable external finance, & reduce uncertainty for investors.
The EU easing restrictions on new genomic techniques for food is an important break from the precautionary reflex that has long shaped EU policy & may also have large, positive effects for low- & mid-income countries dealing with rising food insecurity. By @cullenhendrix.bsky.social:
Europe's new biotech rules could buttress global food security
The European Union recently agreed to ease restrictions on new genomic techniques (NGTs) for food, in the most significant change to Europe’s stringent regulatory approach to crop biotechnology in two...
www.piie.com
January 6, 2026 at 6:17 PM
The EU easing restrictions on new genomic techniques for food is an important break from the precautionary reflex that has long shaped EU policy & may also have large, positive effects for low- & mid-income countries dealing with rising food insecurity. By @cullenhendrix.bsky.social:
NEW: Early, sustained, & well-governed foreign capital inflows offer Ukraine its most realistic pathway to rapid postwar reconstruction & income growth. The experience of Eastern European countries that joined the EU & NATO points to the possibilities, Maurice Obstfeld & Yuriy Gorodnichenko write:
You only live twice: Financial inflows and growth in a westward-facing Ukraine
The monumental task of rebuilding postwar Ukraine requires early planning and identification of growth strategies. The earlier accession of Eastern European countries to the European Union and NATO of...
www.piie.com
January 6, 2026 at 5:02 PM
NEW: Early, sustained, & well-governed foreign capital inflows offer Ukraine its most realistic pathway to rapid postwar reconstruction & income growth. The experience of Eastern European countries that joined the EU & NATO points to the possibilities, Maurice Obstfeld & Yuriy Gorodnichenko write:
Reposted by Peterson Institute for International Economics
#Hunger is rising while advanced economies — especially the US — pull back on humanitarian and agricultural aid. A new #EU policy on gene-edited crops could help strengthen global food security, especially in developing countries.
My latest for @piie.com.
My latest for @piie.com.
Europe's new biotech rules could buttress global food security
The European Union recently agreed to ease restrictions on new genomic techniques (NGTs) for food, in the most significant change to Europe’s stringent regulatory approach to crop biotechnology in two...
www.piie.com
January 6, 2026 at 3:22 PM
Reposted by Peterson Institute for International Economics
This major US financial stability risk has not been getting sufficient attention.
So, I am using this feature I did with the Danish "Borsen" - in English - to try to raise this concern.
If you find the argument clear and therefore worrying, please circulate, thanks.
www.piie.com/commentary/o...
So, I am using this feature I did with the Danish "Borsen" - in English - to try to raise this concern.
If you find the argument clear and therefore worrying, please circulate, thanks.
www.piie.com/commentary/o...
Economic heavyweights sound alarm over new currency – top economist fears panic
His analysis is deeply unsettling. The United States is in the middle of a financial experiment. If it goes wrong, it could end in a financial crisis 2.0.
www.piie.com
January 5, 2026 at 6:24 PM
This major US financial stability risk has not been getting sufficient attention.
So, I am using this feature I did with the Danish "Borsen" - in English - to try to raise this concern.
If you find the argument clear and therefore worrying, please circulate, thanks.
www.piie.com/commentary/o...
So, I am using this feature I did with the Danish "Borsen" - in English - to try to raise this concern.
If you find the argument clear and therefore worrying, please circulate, thanks.
www.piie.com/commentary/o...
“You can have volcanoes in the economy that you haven’t seen yet,” @adamposen.bsky.social says, referencing Emily Dickinson. Stablecoins are one: a latent threat that could erupt & trigger a financial meltdown. The lava could cause destruction reminiscent of what happened in 2008.
Economic heavyweights sound alarm over new currency – top economist fears panic
His analysis is deeply unsettling. The United States is in the middle of a financial experiment. If it goes wrong, it could end in a financial crisis 2.0.
www.piie.com
January 5, 2026 at 6:07 PM
“You can have volcanoes in the economy that you haven’t seen yet,” @adamposen.bsky.social says, referencing Emily Dickinson. Stablecoins are one: a latent threat that could erupt & trigger a financial meltdown. The lava could cause destruction reminiscent of what happened in 2008.
Reposted by Peterson Institute for International Economics
New interview in Le Monde (en francais)
The US can bully, but Europe has more agency than it thinks. Yet Europe cannot succeed trying to play the same game as China or US. It has to employ attraction to counter and compete with threats.
www.lemonde.fr/economie/art...
The US can bully, but Europe has more agency than it thinks. Yet Europe cannot succeed trying to play the same game as China or US. It has to employ attraction to counter and compete with threats.
www.lemonde.fr/economie/art...
Adam Posen, économiste : « La hausse des droits de douane, c’est cher et ça n’a aucun sens »
Le président du Peterson Institute, think tank indépendant, analyse avec sévérité la politique de l’administration Trump axée sur les taxes douanières. Une stratégie incohérente et irréaliste, selon l...
www.lemonde.fr
January 3, 2026 at 3:14 PM
New interview in Le Monde (en francais)
The US can bully, but Europe has more agency than it thinks. Yet Europe cannot succeed trying to play the same game as China or US. It has to employ attraction to counter and compete with threats.
www.lemonde.fr/economie/art...
The US can bully, but Europe has more agency than it thinks. Yet Europe cannot succeed trying to play the same game as China or US. It has to employ attraction to counter and compete with threats.
www.lemonde.fr/economie/art...
Average US tariffs on China: 47.5%
Average Chinese tariffs on US: 31.9%
Average US tariffs on the rest of the world: 18.4%
Average Chinese tariffs on the rest of the world: 6.5%
#PIIECharts
Average Chinese tariffs on US: 31.9%
Average US tariffs on the rest of the world: 18.4%
Average Chinese tariffs on the rest of the world: 6.5%
#PIIECharts
December 24, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Average US tariffs on China: 47.5%
Average Chinese tariffs on US: 31.9%
Average US tariffs on the rest of the world: 18.4%
Average Chinese tariffs on the rest of the world: 6.5%
#PIIECharts
Average Chinese tariffs on US: 31.9%
Average US tariffs on the rest of the world: 18.4%
Average Chinese tariffs on the rest of the world: 6.5%
#PIIECharts
We have once again updated our trade war timeline:
Trump's trade war timeline 2.0: An up-to-date guide
President Donald Trump started his second term in office with momentous plans to change US trade policy to achieve various economic and nontrade related aims. This timeline tracks the development of t...
www.piie.com
December 24, 2025 at 3:25 PM
We have once again updated our trade war timeline:
Reposted by Peterson Institute for International Economics
New piece in @nytopinion.nytimes.com trying to explain the GDP boom combined with job bust. I don't have a definitive answer--in fact I'm skeptical of grand unified theories given how the data is often revised and noisy. As always, only update a little on this news. www.nytimes.com/2025/12/23/o...
Opinion | Economic Growth Is Up. Unemployment Is, Too. What’s Going On?
www.nytimes.com
December 23, 2025 at 3:30 PM
New piece in @nytopinion.nytimes.com trying to explain the GDP boom combined with job bust. I don't have a definitive answer--in fact I'm skeptical of grand unified theories given how the data is often revised and noisy. As always, only update a little on this news. www.nytimes.com/2025/12/23/o...
Make sure you're subscribed to our flagship newsletter PIIE Insider to receive our latest work, exclusive analysis, & more straight to your inbox: https://www.piie.com/subscribe
December 23, 2025 at 2:24 PM
Make sure you're subscribed to our flagship newsletter PIIE Insider to receive our latest work, exclusive analysis, & more straight to your inbox: https://www.piie.com/subscribe
Reposted by Peterson Institute for International Economics
Chasing balanced agricultural trade in a high-income, high-consumption economy is chasing a white rabbit. My latest (ungated) for @barrons.com.
Now enjoy your hot cocoa (grown in Côte d'Ivoire) and ginger snaps (India, China, Nigeria).
Now enjoy your hot cocoa (grown in Côte d'Ivoire) and ginger snaps (India, China, Nigeria).
Fixing the U.S. Agricultural Trade Deficit is a Fool’s Errand
A forecast $50 billion deficit would be the largest in modern history, Cullen S. Hendrix writes in a guest commentary.
www.barrons.com
December 22, 2025 at 9:34 PM
Chasing balanced agricultural trade in a high-income, high-consumption economy is chasing a white rabbit. My latest (ungated) for @barrons.com.
Now enjoy your hot cocoa (grown in Côte d'Ivoire) and ginger snaps (India, China, Nigeria).
Now enjoy your hot cocoa (grown in Côte d'Ivoire) and ginger snaps (India, China, Nigeria).
Reposted by Peterson Institute for International Economics
My pet peeve about using GDP as a measure of national economic power. I suggest an adjustment that may get closer to reality. www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
China vs. the US: Which GDP is bigger?
Has China yet surpassed the United States in aggregate economic power? Perhaps not. Although China’s GDP, at market prices and exchange rates, is still much lower than that of the United States, the o...
www.piie.com
December 19, 2025 at 6:21 PM
My pet peeve about using GDP as a measure of national economic power. I suggest an adjustment that may get closer to reality. www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
Check out our most read pieces of 2025 👇
PIIE's most read pieces of 2025
Every year, I write this roundup, and every year, I start it with some variation of "what a year it's been!" Reader, what a year 2025 has been. Here are our most read pieces published this year. We ar...
www.piie.com
December 22, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Check out our most read pieces of 2025 👇
Although China's GDP at purchasing power parity is ahead of the United States, its economic power may still be lower. Patrick Honohan explains:
China vs. the US: Which GDP is bigger?
Has China yet surpassed the United States in aggregate economic power? Perhaps not. Although China’s GDP, at market prices and exchange rates, is still much lower than that of the United States, the o...
www.piie.com
December 19, 2025 at 3:41 PM
Although China's GDP at purchasing power parity is ahead of the United States, its economic power may still be lower. Patrick Honohan explains:
Reposted by Peterson Institute for International Economics
Adam Posen (@piie.com & CEPR) joins @talknormal.co.uk to discuss how the multilateral order is changing, how countries are adjusting to the new global trade environment, and whether globalisation as we once knew it can return
Recorded at the CEPR Symposium in Paris
cepr.org/multimedia/f...
#EconSky
Recorded at the CEPR Symposium in Paris
cepr.org/multimedia/f...
#EconSky
December 19, 2025 at 3:25 PM
Adam Posen (@piie.com & CEPR) joins @talknormal.co.uk to discuss how the multilateral order is changing, how countries are adjusting to the new global trade environment, and whether globalisation as we once knew it can return
Recorded at the CEPR Symposium in Paris
cepr.org/multimedia/f...
#EconSky
Recorded at the CEPR Symposium in Paris
cepr.org/multimedia/f...
#EconSky
ICYMI: @mdebolle.com joined PIIE Insider LIVE to discuss economic nationalism in the US & Latin America, China's presence in South America, Argentina's economy, & more.
Watch here or listen wherever you get podcasts:
Watch here or listen wherever you get podcasts:
Monica de Bolle on Latin America's changing role in the global economy
YouTube video by Peterson Institute for International Economics
www.youtube.com
December 18, 2025 at 6:34 PM
ICYMI: @mdebolle.com joined PIIE Insider LIVE to discuss economic nationalism in the US & Latin America, China's presence in South America, Argentina's economy, & more.
Watch here or listen wherever you get podcasts:
Watch here or listen wherever you get podcasts:
The Fed acting more like a committee is a healthy way to turn the page on the era when the chair was treated as some sort of maestro, oracle or wizard with an omniscient understanding of the economy & omnipotent powers to steer it, @jasonfurman.bsky.social writes.
Opinion | Donald Trump May Be About to Pick the Least Important Fed Chair in Decades
www.nytimes.com
December 18, 2025 at 3:56 PM
The Fed acting more like a committee is a healthy way to turn the page on the era when the chair was treated as some sort of maestro, oracle or wizard with an omniscient understanding of the economy & omnipotent powers to steer it, @jasonfurman.bsky.social writes.
Kenneth Rogoff & Takeshi Tashiro revisit Japan’s "exorbitant privilege" case, particularly the persistent excess return on its external balance sheet. Retaining this privilege is conditional on Japan managing debt dynamics & keeping inflation under control.
Perspectives on Japan’s continuing exorbitant privilege
With renewed doubt about the scale, scope, and even the sign of the dollar’s “exorbitant privilege,” Rogoff and Tashiro revisit Japan’s case, in particular, the persistent excess return on its externa...
www.piie.com
December 17, 2025 at 3:51 PM
Kenneth Rogoff & Takeshi Tashiro revisit Japan’s "exorbitant privilege" case, particularly the persistent excess return on its external balance sheet. Retaining this privilege is conditional on Japan managing debt dynamics & keeping inflation under control.
NEW: World Bank's Cornelius Fleischhaker joins @mdebolle.com on Policy for the Planet to discuss potential paths for Brazil to tackle its fiscal problems while encouraging more climate-friendly policies.
Listen here or wherever you get podcasts: www.piie.com/experts/podc...
Listen here or wherever you get podcasts: www.piie.com/experts/podc...
Can Brazil's fiscal policy address environmental concerns? (Episode 23)
Brazil has made many attempts to reform its fiscal problems, while never adequately addressing its increasingly burdensome government debt. At the same time, the country is home to the Amazon rainfore...
www.piie.com
December 16, 2025 at 2:34 PM
NEW: World Bank's Cornelius Fleischhaker joins @mdebolle.com on Policy for the Planet to discuss potential paths for Brazil to tackle its fiscal problems while encouraging more climate-friendly policies.
Listen here or wherever you get podcasts: www.piie.com/experts/podc...
Listen here or wherever you get podcasts: www.piie.com/experts/podc...
The PIIE Briefing of essays from our October conference on central bank independence in practice is now available here:
Central bank independence in practice
The Peterson Institute for International Economics held a high-level conference in October 2025 in Washington, DC, to analyze the serious issues concerning central bank independence in practice. The g...
www.piie.com
December 15, 2025 at 8:51 PM
The PIIE Briefing of essays from our October conference on central bank independence in practice is now available here: