Peterson Institute for International Economics
@piie.com
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The Peterson Institute for International Economics is a nonpartisan, independent research institution devoted to studying international economic policy. Explore our research: piie.com
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piie.com
🍂 It's fall meetings szn 🍂
We hope you can join us this week & next! Find all event pages, info, & registration here: www.piie.com/event-series...
PIIE Fall Meetings
Coming up in October 2025 | Watching at piie.com/events
--
October 8 | 1:00 PM EDT
China’s economic outlook: Challenges and opportunities
Martin Chorzempa (PIIE), Tianlei Huang (PIIE), Mary E. Lovely (PIIE), Yeling Tan (PIIE)
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October 9 | 1:00 PM EDT
Global Economic Prospects: Fall 2025
Karen Dynan (PIIE), Arvind Subramanian (PIIE), Adam S. Posen (PIIE)
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October 14 | 3:00 PM EDT
PIIE Insider LIVE: Maurice Obstfeld on trade and the international financial system
Anjali V. Bhatt (PIIE), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE)
--
October 15 | 9:00 AM EDT
Trade Winds: How is the world adjusting to a new trading landscape?
Cecilia Malmström (PIIE), Mari Elka Pangestu (National Economic Council; PIIE), Hector Torres (Centre for International Governance Innovation)
--
October 16 
9:00 AM EDT 
The changing dollar regime: An update
Joseph E. Gagnon (PIIE), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE), Moritz Schularick (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), Adam S. Posen (PIIE)
1:30 PM EDT
Canada’s economic outlook and global trade: A conversation with Governor Tiff Macklem 
Tiff Macklem (Bank of Canada), Adam S. Posen (PIIE)
--
October 17 | 1:00 PM EDT
Europe in a changing international monetary system 
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré (Banque de France), Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE), Klaas Knot (De Nederlandsche Bank; Financial Stability Board), Signe Krogstrup (Danmarks Nationalbank), Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland), Ángel Ubide (Citadel LLC)
piie.com
Inflation is going to be higher in the US in the news few years than most are forecasting, @adamposen.bsky.social says.

Find slides & watch the Global Economic Prospects event here: www.piie.com/events/2025/...
Why the inflation impact of deportation has been lagged

If 1 million+ migrants have left, how has production stayed up?
No increase in native or legal employment in the sectors which are known to be heavy users of migrant labor

What is going on?
McKibbin, Noland, and Hogan (2024) says impact should be big and stagflationary
Substitution of K or L not there in the data
Mismeasurement of net migrant outflows?
Over-counting/claims of total deported?
Or workers and families take time to make up their minds on a wrenching decision
Not sure that ICE really will come for them
Head underground but keep working
Employers do not have to pay more or invest – in fact can end up paying less
Difficult to decide when to leave


Actual financial conditions are more relevant than FFR Inflation expectations are less well anchored

Recent past experience of higher inflation has a lasting impact (Gagnon and Kamin 2025)

Staggered salient price hikes are coming
Think like eggs under Biden
Beef, certain fruit and veg, musical instruments, toys…
De minimis imported goods
Some pharmaceuticals potentially
Energy depending upon the impact of AI demand
Durable goods (autos, furniture, construction inputs), though, are less salient for inflation perceptions
piie.com
Rather than worrying about the China Shock 2.0 in developed economies, we should be much more worried about the China Shock 1.0 in low- & middle-income countries, Arvind Subramanian says.

Find slides & watch the Global Economic Prospects event here: www.piie.com/events/2025/...
The New China Shock is on Low and Middle Income Countries (LMICs)
High and rising imports of low-skilled products from China 
Magnitude and pace of China shock much greater than for rich countries China Shock 2.0 Exaggerated
Implication: now impact for rich countries is mostly from Chinese high skilled esports
Magnitude and pace of China Shock 2.0 significantly smaller than China Shock 1.0
China SHock 2.0 no longer macro-economic but sectoral/technological/security
piie.com
Robust investment in the US in AI-related categories has more than compensated for softer investment elsewhere.

Find these charts & so many more, & watch the presentation here: www.piie.com/events/2025/...
US business investment continues to grow, but only because of AI-related categories AI expectations have driven up the stock market
piie.com
NEW: Karen Dynan presents our semiannual Global Economic Prospects.
The global economy is growing more strongly than expected this year, despite rising trade tensions & high uncertainty around US economic policy. But growth is expected to slow across most major economies in 2026.
Most large, advanced economies face slower GDP growth next year, while China and India withstand tariff drag
piie.com
TODAY at 1 PM ET: Our semiannual Global Economic Prospects with Karen Dynan's outlook on the US & other economies, Arvind Subramanian on China's external surpluses, & @adamposen.bsky.social on US inflation risks & Fed policy.
Watch here—slides available after the event: www.piie.com/events/2025/...
Global Economic Prospects: Fall 2025
The Peterson Institute for International Economics presents the fall 2025 PIIE Global Economic Prospects, the Institute’s semiannual outlook for the US and global economies. Karen Dynan, nonresident s...
www.piie.com
Reposted by Peterson Institute for International Economics
kiel.institute
🍂 As part of the @piie.com fall meetings on Oct 16, @schularick.bsky.social will highlight the euro's growing importanance in the global monetary system in a discussion with Maurice Obstfeld & Joseph E. Gagnon, moderated by @adamposen.bsky.social

🔗 Register now 👉 piie.com/events/2025/...
Reposted by Peterson Institute for International Economics
ben-beachy.bsky.social
If you'd like a break from doomerism, @mdebolle.com & I had a good time recording this new @piie.com podcast to explore potential paths forward for clean energy industrial policy.

We touched on IRA lessons learned, abundance, bottom-up policy design, & yes...bagels.

www.piie.com/experts/podc...
Can climate efforts create jobs? (Episode 20)
Is it possible to pursue climate efforts, create jobs, and achieve social justice at the same time? That was the challenge that the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 was designed to meet. Ben Beachy (Gl...
www.piie.com
piie.com
🍂Fall meetings start now!🍂
Our first event is an expert panel of Martin Chorzempa, Tianlei Huang, Mary Lovely, & Yeling Tan diving deep into China's economic landscape, including the housing market & the country's economic security model.
Watch here: www.piie.com/events/2025/...
China's economic outlook: Challenges and opportunities
The Peterson Institute holds an in-depth discussion examining China’s economic landscape, including the current housing slump and its broader implications, as well as the country’s economic security g...
www.piie.com
piie.com
We're kicking off our fall meetings TOMORROW Oct 8 as an expert panel of Martin Chorzempa, Tianlei Huang, Mary Lovely, & Yeling Tan dive deep into China's economic landscape, including the housing market & the country's economic security model.
Info & register:
China's economic outlook: Challenges and opportunities
The Peterson Institute holds an in-depth discussion examining China’s economic landscape, including the current housing slump and its broader implications, as well as the country’s economic security g...
www.piie.com
piie.com
A $20bn loan from US Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund to Argentina's central bank will not rescue Argentine debt or the peso for long, but will allocate US taxpayer money to reducing the losses of global investors who may wish to exit Argentine debt.
By Maurice Obstfeld:
America's Argentina rescue won’t save the peso for long
The Argentine peso is in trouble again, but this time the US government is riding to the rescue. In late September, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced several supportive measures, including po...
www.piie.com
piie.com
Even concrete US interventions are unlikely to save Argentina's peso for long unless they go further than so far promised—though it might give Milei a rickety bridge through the October election without an embarrassing devaluation.

By Maurice Obstfeld: www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
Promised US assistance appears aimed at helping keep Argentine peso's value within a specified range
piie.com
🍂 It's fall meetings szn 🍂
We hope you can join us this week & next! Find all event pages, info, & registration here: www.piie.com/event-series...
PIIE Fall Meetings
Coming up in October 2025 | Watching at piie.com/events
--
October 8 | 1:00 PM EDT
China’s economic outlook: Challenges and opportunities
Martin Chorzempa (PIIE), Tianlei Huang (PIIE), Mary E. Lovely (PIIE), Yeling Tan (PIIE)
--
October 9 | 1:00 PM EDT
Global Economic Prospects: Fall 2025
Karen Dynan (PIIE), Arvind Subramanian (PIIE), Adam S. Posen (PIIE)
--
October 14 | 3:00 PM EDT
PIIE Insider LIVE: Maurice Obstfeld on trade and the international financial system
Anjali V. Bhatt (PIIE), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE)
--
October 15 | 9:00 AM EDT
Trade Winds: How is the world adjusting to a new trading landscape?
Cecilia Malmström (PIIE), Mari Elka Pangestu (National Economic Council; PIIE), Hector Torres (Centre for International Governance Innovation)
--
October 16 
9:00 AM EDT 
The changing dollar regime: An update
Joseph E. Gagnon (PIIE), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE), Moritz Schularick (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), Adam S. Posen (PIIE)
1:30 PM EDT
Canada’s economic outlook and global trade: A conversation with Governor Tiff Macklem 
Tiff Macklem (Bank of Canada), Adam S. Posen (PIIE)
--
October 17 | 1:00 PM EDT
Europe in a changing international monetary system 
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré (Banque de France), Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE), Klaas Knot (De Nederlandsche Bank; Financial Stability Board), Signe Krogstrup (Danmarks Nationalbank), Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland), Ángel Ubide (Citadel LLC)
piie.com
We updated previous models with September tariffs—over a decade, total employment will return to baseline eventually, but with a permanent structural shift from trade-exposed manufacturing, mining, & agriculture to the service sector & lower real wages for all.
The global trade war: An update
Since February 2025, the United States has undertaken a rolling process of resetting tariffs, driving them up to the highest levels since the 1930s. In this blog, we project the impacts of the US tari...
www.piie.com
piie.com
Update:
Average US tariffs on China: 57.6%
Average Chinese tariffs on US: 32.6%

Average US tariffs on the rest of the world: 19.5%
Average Chinese tariffs on the rest of the world: 6.5%
US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart
Last updated September 25, 2025
piie.com
🍂 It's fall, y'all!🍂
We hope you can join us for our fall meetings! Find all event pages, info, & registration here: www.piie.com/event-series...
PIIE Fall Meetings
Coming up in October 2025 | Watching at piie.com/events
--
October 8 | 1:00 PM EDT
China’s economic outlook: Challenges and opportunities
Martin Chorzempa (PIIE), Tianlei Huang (PIIE), Mary E. Lovely (PIIE), Yeling Tan (PIIE)
--
October 9 | 1:00 PM EDT
Global Economic Prospects: Fall 2025
Karen Dynan (PIIE), Arvind Subramanian (PIIE), Adam S. Posen (PIIE)
--
October 14 | 3:00 PM EDT
PIIE Insider LIVE: Maurice Obstfeld on trade and the international financial system
Anjali V. Bhatt (PIIE), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE)
--
October 15 | 9:00 AM EDT
Trade Winds: How is the world adjusting to a new trading landscape?
Cecilia Malmström (PIIE), Mari Elka Pangestu (National Economic Council; PIIE), Hector Torres (Centre for International Governance Innovation)
--
October 16 
9:00 AM EDT 
The changing dollar regime: An update
Joseph E. Gagnon (PIIE), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE), Moritz Schularick (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), Adam S. Posen (PIIE)
1:30 PM EDT
Canada’s economic outlook and global trade: A conversation with Governor Tiff Macklem 
Tiff Macklem (Bank of Canada), Adam S. Posen (PIIE)
--
October 17 | 1:00 PM EDT
Europe in a changing international monetary system 
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE), Klaas Knot (De Nederlandsche Bank; Financial Stability Board), Signe Krogstrup (Danmarks Nationalbank), Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland), Ángel Ubide (Citadel LLC)
piie.com
We updated previous models with September tariffs—over a decade, total employment will return to baseline eventually, but with a permanent structural shift from trade-exposed manufacturing, mining, & agriculture to the service sector & lower real wages for all.
The global trade war: An update
Since February 2025, the United States has undertaken a rolling process of resetting tariffs, driving them up to the highest levels since the 1930s. In this blog, we project the impacts of the US tari...
www.piie.com
piie.com
New modelling shows that if US tariffs are left in place as they are from September 11 over the coming decade, these tariffs would result in less US economic output, higher US prices, & lower American wages than if they had not been adopted.
The global trade war: An update
Since February 2025, the United States has undertaken a rolling process of resetting tariffs, driving them up to the highest levels since the 1930s. In this blog, we project the impacts of the US tari...
www.piie.com