Peterson Institute for International Economics
@piie.com
9.3K followers 54 following 610 posts
The Peterson Institute for International Economics is a nonpartisan, independent research institution devoted to studying international economic policy. Explore our research: piie.com
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piie.com
🍂 It's fall meetings szn 🍂
We hope you can join us this week & next! Find all event pages, info, & registration here: www.piie.com/event-series...
PIIE Fall Meetings
Coming up in October 2025 | Watching at piie.com/events
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October 8 | 1:00 PM EDT
China’s economic outlook: Challenges and opportunities
Martin Chorzempa (PIIE), Tianlei Huang (PIIE), Mary E. Lovely (PIIE), Yeling Tan (PIIE)
--
October 9 | 1:00 PM EDT
Global Economic Prospects: Fall 2025
Karen Dynan (PIIE), Arvind Subramanian (PIIE), Adam S. Posen (PIIE)
--
October 14 | 3:00 PM EDT
PIIE Insider LIVE: Maurice Obstfeld on trade and the international financial system
Anjali V. Bhatt (PIIE), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE)
--
October 15 | 9:00 AM EDT
Trade Winds: How is the world adjusting to a new trading landscape?
Cecilia Malmström (PIIE), Mari Elka Pangestu (National Economic Council; PIIE), Hector Torres (Centre for International Governance Innovation)
--
October 16 
9:00 AM EDT 
The changing dollar regime: An update
Joseph E. Gagnon (PIIE), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE), Moritz Schularick (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), Adam S. Posen (PIIE)
1:30 PM EDT
Canada’s economic outlook and global trade: A conversation with Governor Tiff Macklem 
Tiff Macklem (Bank of Canada), Adam S. Posen (PIIE)
--
October 17 | 1:00 PM EDT
Europe in a changing international monetary system 
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré (Banque de France), Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE), Klaas Knot (De Nederlandsche Bank; Financial Stability Board), Signe Krogstrup (Danmarks Nationalbank), Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland), Ángel Ubide (Citadel LLC)
piie.com
We're kicking off our fall meetings TOMORROW Oct 8 as an expert panel of Martin Chorzempa, Tianlei Huang, Mary Lovely, & Yeling Tan dive deep into China's economic landscape, including the housing market & the country's economic security model.
Info & register:
China's economic outlook: Challenges and opportunities
The Peterson Institute holds an in-depth discussion examining China’s economic landscape, including the current housing slump and its broader implications, as well as the country’s economic security g...
www.piie.com
piie.com
A $20bn loan from US Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund to Argentina's central bank will not rescue Argentine debt or the peso for long, but will allocate US taxpayer money to reducing the losses of global investors who may wish to exit Argentine debt.
By Maurice Obstfeld:
America's Argentina rescue won’t save the peso for long
The Argentine peso is in trouble again, but this time the US government is riding to the rescue. In late September, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced several supportive measures, including po...
www.piie.com
piie.com
Even concrete US interventions are unlikely to save Argentina's peso for long unless they go further than so far promised—though it might give Milei a rickety bridge through the October election without an embarrassing devaluation.

By Maurice Obstfeld: www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
Promised US assistance appears aimed at helping keep Argentine peso's value within a specified range
piie.com
🍂 It's fall meetings szn 🍂
We hope you can join us this week & next! Find all event pages, info, & registration here: www.piie.com/event-series...
PIIE Fall Meetings
Coming up in October 2025 | Watching at piie.com/events
--
October 8 | 1:00 PM EDT
China’s economic outlook: Challenges and opportunities
Martin Chorzempa (PIIE), Tianlei Huang (PIIE), Mary E. Lovely (PIIE), Yeling Tan (PIIE)
--
October 9 | 1:00 PM EDT
Global Economic Prospects: Fall 2025
Karen Dynan (PIIE), Arvind Subramanian (PIIE), Adam S. Posen (PIIE)
--
October 14 | 3:00 PM EDT
PIIE Insider LIVE: Maurice Obstfeld on trade and the international financial system
Anjali V. Bhatt (PIIE), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE)
--
October 15 | 9:00 AM EDT
Trade Winds: How is the world adjusting to a new trading landscape?
Cecilia Malmström (PIIE), Mari Elka Pangestu (National Economic Council; PIIE), Hector Torres (Centre for International Governance Innovation)
--
October 16 
9:00 AM EDT 
The changing dollar regime: An update
Joseph E. Gagnon (PIIE), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE), Moritz Schularick (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), Adam S. Posen (PIIE)
1:30 PM EDT
Canada’s economic outlook and global trade: A conversation with Governor Tiff Macklem 
Tiff Macklem (Bank of Canada), Adam S. Posen (PIIE)
--
October 17 | 1:00 PM EDT
Europe in a changing international monetary system 
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré (Banque de France), Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE), Klaas Knot (De Nederlandsche Bank; Financial Stability Board), Signe Krogstrup (Danmarks Nationalbank), Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland), Ángel Ubide (Citadel LLC)
piie.com
We updated previous models with September tariffs—over a decade, total employment will return to baseline eventually, but with a permanent structural shift from trade-exposed manufacturing, mining, & agriculture to the service sector & lower real wages for all.
The global trade war: An update
Since February 2025, the United States has undertaken a rolling process of resetting tariffs, driving them up to the highest levels since the 1930s. In this blog, we project the impacts of the US tari...
www.piie.com
piie.com
Update:
Average US tariffs on China: 57.6%
Average Chinese tariffs on US: 32.6%

Average US tariffs on the rest of the world: 19.5%
Average Chinese tariffs on the rest of the world: 6.5%
US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart
Last updated September 25, 2025
piie.com
🍂 It's fall, y'all!🍂
We hope you can join us for our fall meetings! Find all event pages, info, & registration here: www.piie.com/event-series...
PIIE Fall Meetings
Coming up in October 2025 | Watching at piie.com/events
--
October 8 | 1:00 PM EDT
China’s economic outlook: Challenges and opportunities
Martin Chorzempa (PIIE), Tianlei Huang (PIIE), Mary E. Lovely (PIIE), Yeling Tan (PIIE)
--
October 9 | 1:00 PM EDT
Global Economic Prospects: Fall 2025
Karen Dynan (PIIE), Arvind Subramanian (PIIE), Adam S. Posen (PIIE)
--
October 14 | 3:00 PM EDT
PIIE Insider LIVE: Maurice Obstfeld on trade and the international financial system
Anjali V. Bhatt (PIIE), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE)
--
October 15 | 9:00 AM EDT
Trade Winds: How is the world adjusting to a new trading landscape?
Cecilia Malmström (PIIE), Mari Elka Pangestu (National Economic Council; PIIE), Hector Torres (Centre for International Governance Innovation)
--
October 16 
9:00 AM EDT 
The changing dollar regime: An update
Joseph E. Gagnon (PIIE), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE), Moritz Schularick (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), Adam S. Posen (PIIE)
1:30 PM EDT
Canada’s economic outlook and global trade: A conversation with Governor Tiff Macklem 
Tiff Macklem (Bank of Canada), Adam S. Posen (PIIE)
--
October 17 | 1:00 PM EDT
Europe in a changing international monetary system 
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE), Klaas Knot (De Nederlandsche Bank; Financial Stability Board), Signe Krogstrup (Danmarks Nationalbank), Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland), Ángel Ubide (Citadel LLC)
piie.com
We updated previous models with September tariffs—over a decade, total employment will return to baseline eventually, but with a permanent structural shift from trade-exposed manufacturing, mining, & agriculture to the service sector & lower real wages for all.
The global trade war: An update
Since February 2025, the United States has undertaken a rolling process of resetting tariffs, driving them up to the highest levels since the 1930s. In this blog, we project the impacts of the US tari...
www.piie.com
piie.com
New modelling shows that if US tariffs are left in place as they are from September 11 over the coming decade, these tariffs would result in less US economic output, higher US prices, & lower American wages than if they had not been adopted.
The global trade war: An update
Since February 2025, the United States has undertaken a rolling process of resetting tariffs, driving them up to the highest levels since the 1930s. In this blog, we project the impacts of the US tari...
www.piie.com
piie.com
@kclausing.bsky.social & Maurice Obstfeld examine tariffs as a fiscal shift on revenue, distribution, efficiency, & tax administration. Even revenue-maximizing tariffs would be less than 25% of income tax revenue, & efficiency losses nearly as large as revenue raised.
Tariffs as Fiscal Policy
The year 2025 brought a remarkable shift in the role of tariffs in the US economy, as the Trump administration simultaneously escalated the use of broad tariffs and ensured that Congress enacted large...
www.piie.com
Reposted by Peterson Institute for International Economics
mclem.org
I talked with @pbsnews.org about some of the economic harms that Americans can expect from the White House’s sudden turn toward penalizing lawful, high-skill immigrants.
Reposted by Peterson Institute for International Economics
piie.com
Marcus Noland on Korea's supposed $350 billion investment in the US:
What will constitute the $350bn investment is contested. Here is Marcus Noland of the Peterson Institute for International Economics: 

Originally, Korea thought it could count investment guarantees and things like that as part of the $350bn — such as the battery factory down in Georgia, some investment guarantees or some loans from the state bank — and count that. But the US has now come back and said it wants equity; and not only does it want equity, it wants equity that will be controlled by the White House and it will not necessarily be invested in Korean firms; the US just invests it any way they want . . . it’s a bizarre idea
piie.com
Running it back to May of this year: movie tariffs—if implemented—will create a precedent for unlimited tariffs against other services. The harmful outcomes, in terms of reduced competition & clogged commercial channels, will far outweigh any benefit.
Another Trump first: Movie tariffs
Breaking fresh ground with his all-purpose tool, on May 4, 2025, President Donald Trump said he would impose 100 percent tariffs on movies made abroad, complaining that other countries steal Hollywood...
www.piie.com
piie.com
Trump succeeding in pressing the Fed to lower rates further than it would otherwise would slow US growth through most of the 2030s, & boost inflation through 2040. #PIIECharts
More: https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2025/erosion-fed-independence-would-slow-us-economic-growth-and-boost
Erosion of Fed independence would slow US economic growth and boost inflation over time
piie.com
Today’s tariff rates are particularly high, variable, & uncertain—generating serious tax administration problems, high compliance costs, negative investment effects, & large rent-seeking & corruption opportunities.
By @kclausing.bsky.social & Maurice Obstfeld:
Tariffs as Fiscal Policy
The year 2025 brought a remarkable shift in the role of tariffs in the US economy, as the Trump administration simultaneously escalated the use of broad tariffs and ensured that Congress enacted large...
www.piie.com
piie.com
ICYMI: We launched @veron.bsky.social's new event series & podcast What Now, Europe? with a forward-looking discussion on Ukraine & Europe with Oleksandra Azarkhina from the Economic Security Council of Ukraine.
Watch here or subscribe to listen wherever you get podcasts:
Ukraine's future in the European Union
Europe is grappling with a new era of challenges, from building its own defense to pursuing tech independence. It's a good time to ask: What now, Europe? Introducing a new virtual series and podcast w...
www.piie.com
Reposted by Peterson Institute for International Economics
federalreserve.gov
On September 25, 2025, Governor Barr delivered a speech on bank stress testing @piie.com: www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
On September 25, 2025, Governor Barr delivered a speech on bank stress testing. On September 25, 2025, Governor Barr delivered a speech on bank stress testing. On September 25, 2025, Governor Barr delivered a speech on bank stress testing.