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Giles Wilkes

@gilesyb.bsky.social

19K followers 1.2K following 4.2K posts

Former politico, comment writer, spread betting dealer, editor, now think tanker, consultant, former baker of overly dense loaves.

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · Jul 15

In an effort that will no doubt torch my follower base, I have laid out some basic numbers around our fiscal situation. Obvious, but still a little sobering for me.

freethinkecon.wordpress.com/2025/07/15/t...

There really is no getting out of this fiscal corner

It is something of a cliche to argue that Britain is running out of money, living beyond its means, wandering through a fiscal fool’s paradise – but no less true for that. The trend of …

freethinkecon.wordpress.com

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 4h

Born with Teeth is excellent, see it if you can

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 15h

"From a peak share of 51 per cent of the UK’s new car market in 2012, diesel vehicles now account for only 3 per cent last year"

Astonishing progress

on.ft.com/47l1rlm

How many lives is this saving?

UK dieselgate motorists prepare to go to court against carmakers

Hundreds of thousands of claimants aim to prove that VW was not the only manufacturer cheating in emissions tests

on.ft.com

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 17h

Living in the grey zone - on.ft.com/4h88pgX

"Perhaps it is truer to say that being comfortable with contradiction is the mark of high character, because it entails loneliness. There is never a team to join."

Living in the grey zone

Navigating the 21st century requires a talent for paradox

on.ft.com

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 1d

Alongside cheese and music they are arguably the clearest proof of a benign entity behind all creation, or at least so the best philosophers say

Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 1d

It's unfair to suggest Skyla is spoiled, and perfectly normal to spend a few minutes stuffing beef trachea with dog food for freezing, and later use as a dog popsicle

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 1d

"One study attributes 30-50% of American productivity gains between 1990 and 2010 to skilled migrants. When it shuts the door to mobile talent, America is giving up one of the main ingredients of its success."
www.economist.com/leaders/2025...
From The Economist

Donald Trump’s fortress economy is starting to hurt America

The pain from trade and immigration restrictions cannot be postponed forever

www.economist.com

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 1d

This podcast shares the consensus that Badenoch delivered a pretty good speech this week

pca.st/episode/95ca...

Is it too late for Kemi Badenoch?

pca.st

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Reposted by Giles Wilkes

Omar Khan @omaromalleykhan.bsky.social · 4d

I know statistics are poorly understood and are misused. But facts matter

Between the 1991, 2001, 2011 and 2021 Census *every* ethnic group in the UK has become *less* geographically segregated and *all* groups, majority and minorities, are more likely to interact with people not like them

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 1d

Let's face it, mobile capital goes to places with trade deficits

Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 1d

What bugs me about that article is the implicit premise in the title. FDI and growth are not equivalents, there isn't a zero sum game necessarily, but omg is that the impression that mobile capital likes to give

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 1d

Bad news: there’s more of it about - on.ft.com/4n2TVBq

There really isn't another paper in the same league as the Financial Times. Evidence in this free article

Bad news: there’s more of it about

More than 40 years of FT coverage, charted

on.ft.com

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 1d

Brilliant and depressing piece on how hard it is to transact property

on.ft.com/4nHDf2m

I know some people think housing policy is simple - just build more! And to do that just have less planning! - but most appreciate the more complex tangles in life.

Moving home is maddening — here’s how the system needs to change

A new government consultation promises to speed up the conveyancing process in England and Wales. But will it work?

on.ft.com

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 1d

"if anything employment outcomes are worsening more rapidly for those with fewer skills looking for blue-collar jobs than the highly skilled seeking knowledge work"

on.ft.com/43eYeRZ

@jburnmurdoch.ft.com as ever doing the essential work.

It's not just AI. And education still matters

What the graduate unemployment story gets wrong

People with a degree are faring better, not worse than their non-graduate counterparts

on.ft.com

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Reposted by Giles Wilkes

John Rogers @johnrogers.bsky.social · 2d

ME: Now Mom, just remember, there's a lot of disinformation and AI in your social feed and your friends' Facebook.
MOM: I know! My friend sent me this crazy post where someone used AI to make an image of a giant frog fighting Army troops!
ME: ... okay, no, that one's ... goddamit, Portland.

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 2d

Look I know it couldn't work because I'm typing, I know

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 2d

The boring chatbot ruins my attempt to drive it mad

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Reposted by Giles Wilkes

simian60.bsky.social @simian60.bsky.social · 2d

You just need to zoom in a bit:

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 2d

Russia, which was once a superpower, is claiming to have seized control of a village www.theguardian.com/world/2025/o...

Ukraine war briefing: Analysts flag Kremlin scare campaign against use of Tomahawks

Russian lawmaker says of US missiles: ‘We will hurt those who cause us trouble’; Ukrainian counteroffensive causing heavy losses for Russia. What we know on day 1,324

www.theguardian.com

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 2d

precisely. It is the unfalsifiability of "this was predicted" that means they just can't assert that they are useful. Tyler Cowen seems to think that it would be great if markets were constantly predicting if the share price would benefit from the CEO going - imagine the shenanigans!

Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 2d

am I the only one who finds enthusiasts for prediction markets hopelessly naive about their informational content?

marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevo...

markets can be easily manipulated, prone to fads, etc etc.

Hanson and Buterin for Nobel Prize in Economics - Marginal REVOLUTION

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE.N), the company that owns the NYSE exchange, just announced a $2 billion dollar investment in Polymarket, the Ethereum-blockchain based prediction markets platform. This...

marginalrevolution.com

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 2d

from Bloomberg.

I would like to see the arrow representing the final consumers of the AI product sending money into this tangle

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Reposted by Giles Wilkes

Dan Davies @dsquareddigest.bsky.social · 2d

But they are very useful! For example they demonstrate that is no longer true to say that Reform's support is FPTP-inefficient or that Conservative decline is benefiting Labour. They show that losing support to the left is hurting Labour in urban seats. These are very useful things to know!

UK in a Changing Europe @ukandeu.bsky.social · 2d

"Are they [MRPs] any use to anyone at this stage of the Parliament? No! Do something more useful. Stop producing these polls. They're not magic."

Expert pollster @psurridge.bsky.social reflects on polls and electoral reform

Catch up on the discussion in full here 👇 www.youtube.com/live/ivRLHUb...

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 2d

You don't honestly think the Met Office just forecasts the weather do you

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 2d

Dammed right

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Reposted by Giles Wilkes

Jonny Morris @jonnymorris.bsky.social · 2d

Is this real or am I in a coma?

Young Conservative with a Doctor Who question mark pullover.

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