Giles Wilkes
@gilesyb.bsky.social
Former politico, comment writer, spread betting dealer, editor, now think tanker, consultant, former baker of overly dense loaves.
Pinned
Giles Wilkes
@gilesyb.bsky.social
· Jul 15
There really is no getting out of this fiscal corner
It is something of a cliche to argue that Britain is running out of money, living beyond its means, wandering through a fiscal fool’s paradise – but no less true for that. The trend of …
freethinkecon.wordpress.com
In an effort that will no doubt torch my follower base, I have laid out some basic numbers around our fiscal situation. Obvious, but still a little sobering for me.
freethinkecon.wordpress.com/2025/07/15/t...
freethinkecon.wordpress.com/2025/07/15/t...
Like I was saying
Business investment to fall for first time since Covid, UK fiscal watchdog says - on.ft.com/4rulWV6
Fixing this is an urgent priority for the government. Has to be.
Business investment to fall for first time since Covid, UK fiscal watchdog says - on.ft.com/4rulWV6
Fixing this is an urgent priority for the government. Has to be.
November 28, 2025 at 7:17 AM
Like I was saying
Business investment to fall for first time since Covid, UK fiscal watchdog says - on.ft.com/4rulWV6
Fixing this is an urgent priority for the government. Has to be.
Business investment to fall for first time since Covid, UK fiscal watchdog says - on.ft.com/4rulWV6
Fixing this is an urgent priority for the government. Has to be.
Something disturbing about the OBR's projections for UK Growth under Labour: there is not the boom in future business investment they need. This is surely the top priority to address, when those Austerian Coalition types actually did better.
Obviously, this is partly about Brexit!
Obviously, this is partly about Brexit!
November 27, 2025 at 5:03 PM
Something disturbing about the OBR's projections for UK Growth under Labour: there is not the boom in future business investment they need. This is surely the top priority to address, when those Austerian Coalition types actually did better.
Obviously, this is partly about Brexit!
Obviously, this is partly about Brexit!
"Business wanted stability. Reeves has the same plan as she had before. They should not complain."
My very short take on the Budget and Growth has been published. It is obviously the only correct one, so I recommend you read it all the way through
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...
My very short take on the Budget and Growth has been published. It is obviously the only correct one, so I recommend you read it all the way through
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...
LIVE BLOG | Autumn budget 2025: Rachel Reeves announces tax and spend measures | Institute for Government
IfG experts analyse Reeves' budget and explore what the chancellor's plans for the economy, tax and spending mean.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 27, 2025 at 3:37 PM
"Business wanted stability. Reeves has the same plan as she had before. They should not complain."
My very short take on the Budget and Growth has been published. It is obviously the only correct one, so I recommend you read it all the way through
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...
My very short take on the Budget and Growth has been published. It is obviously the only correct one, so I recommend you read it all the way through
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...
Reposted by Giles Wilkes
Even Brexiters are beginning to acknowledge the damage Brexit has done to the economy, and Westminster needs to catch up. Facing reality is the first step towards repairing the harm and rebuilding a serious relationship with Europe.
We Brexiteers must acknowledge the costs of leaving Europe
Breaking free from the EU has undoubtedly deepened the UK’s malaise, and it’s no use denying it
www.thetimes.com
November 27, 2025 at 12:43 PM
Even Brexiters are beginning to acknowledge the damage Brexit has done to the economy, and Westminster needs to catch up. Facing reality is the first step towards repairing the harm and rebuilding a serious relationship with Europe.
Reposted by Giles Wilkes
YOU WANTED NET IMMIGRATION TO COME DOWN! THIS IS WHAT THAT LOOKS LIKE!
November 27, 2025 at 1:13 PM
YOU WANTED NET IMMIGRATION TO COME DOWN! THIS IS WHAT THAT LOOKS LIKE!
Fun piece, but I think Duncan must mean "of Thatcher, Major, Blair, Brown, Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss, Sunak, Starmer, the last is the most left wing", which is certainly right but meh. NOT "50 years", or shall we have a quick look at the 1975 Industry Act, or the Cabinet debates around 1976? 1/
Starmer and Reeves run probably the most economically left-wing government of past five decades and yet bleeding support to its left thanks to dumb strategy www.economist.com/britain/2025...
November 27, 2025 at 1:56 PM
Fun piece, but I think Duncan must mean "of Thatcher, Major, Blair, Brown, Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss, Sunak, Starmer, the last is the most left wing", which is certainly right but meh. NOT "50 years", or shall we have a quick look at the 1975 Industry Act, or the Cabinet debates around 1976? 1/
Reposted by Giles Wilkes
‘I am their leader, I must follow them’ (Hacker).
November 27, 2025 at 1:43 PM
‘I am their leader, I must follow them’ (Hacker).
Reposted by Giles Wilkes
Yes. If net migration was nil but immigration say 500k. The 'cultural replacement' racist objectors would still have a big issue with it. The net migration argument only works on the "strain on services" objectors group. Who I guess are not the majority.
November 27, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Yes. If net migration was nil but immigration say 500k. The 'cultural replacement' racist objectors would still have a big issue with it. The net migration argument only works on the "strain on services" objectors group. Who I guess are not the majority.
As the smart people of the New Statesman point out (@georgeeaton.bsky.social et al) the Mansion tax announced yesterday *is* a wealth tax. £5k on a £3m house lowers its value by £100k or so... That's 3%.
November 27, 2025 at 1:12 PM
As the smart people of the New Statesman point out (@georgeeaton.bsky.social et al) the Mansion tax announced yesterday *is* a wealth tax. £5k on a £3m house lowers its value by £100k or so... That's 3%.
One of my most enduring gripes. Politicians are told not to patronise voters. The most patronising approach is to nod along when they believe stuff that's not true, or encourage them
this is one of the reasons not to do policy by poll or focus group
New net migration figures at 930am.
Net migration fell half a million to 344,000 in 2024 from 848k in 2023
56% of people think it went up last year
17% think stayed the same
14% think it went down
2025 figure to be lower again
16% expect that
38% think it will be up
31% about the same
Net migration fell half a million to 344,000 in 2024 from 848k in 2023
56% of people think it went up last year
17% think stayed the same
14% think it went down
2025 figure to be lower again
16% expect that
38% think it will be up
31% about the same
November 27, 2025 at 12:24 PM
One of my most enduring gripes. Politicians are told not to patronise voters. The most patronising approach is to nod along when they believe stuff that's not true, or encourage them
if this cyber expert shares a confidential report with the OBR about this, they have the opportunity to do literally the funniest thing
OBR calls in cyber expert over botched release of Budget analysis
OBR calls in cyber expert over botched release of Budget analysis
Rachel Reeves's statement was thrown into chaos after journalists were able to access the document early.
www.bbc.com
November 27, 2025 at 11:38 AM
if this cyber expert shares a confidential report with the OBR about this, they have the opportunity to do literally the funniest thing
Reposted by Giles Wilkes
I love how the obvious response to this - tone down rhetoric and anti-immigration policy - is both essentially economically costless and also absolutely anathema to Number 10 strategists.
The fundamental political-economy for the government is that is objectively implementing a soft left economic policy on speed whilst being hated by lots of left leaning people because of its other policies and rhetoric.
November 27, 2025 at 10:17 AM
I love how the obvious response to this - tone down rhetoric and anti-immigration policy - is both essentially economically costless and also absolutely anathema to Number 10 strategists.
Reposted by Giles Wilkes
Feels like the most important Budget chart from a market point of view. Same game being played again.
November 27, 2025 at 10:02 AM
Feels like the most important Budget chart from a market point of view. Same game being played again.
this is one of the reasons not to do policy by poll or focus group
New net migration figures at 930am.
Net migration fell half a million to 344,000 in 2024 from 848k in 2023
56% of people think it went up last year
17% think stayed the same
14% think it went down
2025 figure to be lower again
16% expect that
38% think it will be up
31% about the same
Net migration fell half a million to 344,000 in 2024 from 848k in 2023
56% of people think it went up last year
17% think stayed the same
14% think it went down
2025 figure to be lower again
16% expect that
38% think it will be up
31% about the same
November 27, 2025 at 10:56 AM
this is one of the reasons not to do policy by poll or focus group
Little noticed but good - the Office for Value for Money is doing good work in government. Here are my colleagues' comments
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...
LIVE BLOG | Autumn budget 2025: Rachel Reeves announces tax and spend measures | Institute for Government
IfG experts analyse Reeves' budget and explore what the chancellor's plans for the economy, tax and spending mean.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 27, 2025 at 10:47 AM
Little noticed but good - the Office for Value for Money is doing good work in government. Here are my colleagues' comments
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...
I don't think this is fair, and think that of the two 'accusations' -
"You're all the same!"
"They've only gone and done a Labour Budget!!"
- the latter is far more accurate. Taxes are higher, investment is higher, the two child limit has gone, they're spending more than Sunak said he would...
"You're all the same!"
"They've only gone and done a Labour Budget!!"
- the latter is far more accurate. Taxes are higher, investment is higher, the two child limit has gone, they're spending more than Sunak said he would...
Interesting that Labour came in with a mandate for change and a huge majority, along with a bunch of explicit promises (and I would wager a sincere self-conception) to stop being short-termist fire-fighters and actually introduce some stability to UK government... but have largely reverted to form.
November 27, 2025 at 8:28 AM
I don't think this is fair, and think that of the two 'accusations' -
"You're all the same!"
"They've only gone and done a Labour Budget!!"
- the latter is far more accurate. Taxes are higher, investment is higher, the two child limit has gone, they're spending more than Sunak said he would...
"You're all the same!"
"They've only gone and done a Labour Budget!!"
- the latter is far more accurate. Taxes are higher, investment is higher, the two child limit has gone, they're spending more than Sunak said he would...
Reposted by Giles Wilkes
Every version of this story is some version of ‘well you couldn’t expect me to be able to afford to buy the house I currently own’ and yes that is the point welcome to the housing crisis.
‘I don’t live in a mansion. It’s a 1930s house’: Richmond residents react to council tax rise
‘I don’t live in a mansion. It’s a 1930s house’: Richmond residents react to council tax rise
Rachel Reeves’s new council tax surcharge on homes worth £2m or more earns mixed reception in well-heeled London borough
www.theguardian.com
November 27, 2025 at 8:09 AM
Every version of this story is some version of ‘well you couldn’t expect me to be able to afford to buy the house I currently own’ and yes that is the point welcome to the housing crisis.
Reposted by Giles Wilkes
The war will end when Russia stops fighting. Therefore, pressure has to be put on Russia, so that they stop believing that they will win. Why is that so hard to understand?
November 27, 2025 at 1:49 AM
The war will end when Russia stops fighting. Therefore, pressure has to be put on Russia, so that they stop believing that they will win. Why is that so hard to understand?
Reposted by Giles Wilkes
Sorry, everyone. I think we've gone and done a thoughtful, balanced episode on #Budget2026, that is more about the economics and the politics, rather than the gossippy nonsense that gets hacks excited. #NotSorry
🆕 SPOILER ALERT - Unpicking the Budget 📈
The good stuff
The less good stuff
The economic rationale
The political consequences
Balance, humour, @pimlicat.bsky.social , @sturdyalex.bsky.social & top economist Vicky Pryce.
🍊 open.spotify.com/episode/05mP...
🍏 podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/q...
The good stuff
The less good stuff
The economic rationale
The political consequences
Balance, humour, @pimlicat.bsky.social , @sturdyalex.bsky.social & top economist Vicky Pryce.
🍊 open.spotify.com/episode/05mP...
🍏 podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/q...
Unpicking the most-leaked Budget in history, with Vicky Pryce
Podcast Episode · Quiet Riot · 26/11/2025 · 1h 18m
podcasts.apple.com
November 26, 2025 at 10:38 PM
Sorry, everyone. I think we've gone and done a thoughtful, balanced episode on #Budget2026, that is more about the economics and the politics, rather than the gossippy nonsense that gets hacks excited. #NotSorry
Reposted by Giles Wilkes
Have you thought about becoming an immigration hating petrol car driving pensioner because you’d be doing okay if you were that
November 27, 2025 at 7:21 AM
Have you thought about becoming an immigration hating petrol car driving pensioner because you’d be doing okay if you were that
"The government will spend £16bn a year more by the end of the decade on welfare than was expected only six months ago"
on.ft.com/4rnu9Kz
First, I do think that needs to be tackled, where it represents a failing system with poor incentives.
Second, perspective: it's ~0.4% of GDP
on.ft.com/4rnu9Kz
First, I do think that needs to be tackled, where it represents a failing system with poor incentives.
Second, perspective: it's ~0.4% of GDP
Budget exposes Labour to charges of being ‘high tax, high welfare’ party
For now Rachel Reeves appears to have reassured many fractious backbench MPs
on.ft.com
November 27, 2025 at 6:57 AM
"The government will spend £16bn a year more by the end of the decade on welfare than was expected only six months ago"
on.ft.com/4rnu9Kz
First, I do think that needs to be tackled, where it represents a failing system with poor incentives.
Second, perspective: it's ~0.4% of GDP
on.ft.com/4rnu9Kz
First, I do think that needs to be tackled, where it represents a failing system with poor incentives.
Second, perspective: it's ~0.4% of GDP
"Several chief executives said Reeves had done little to incentivise businesses to grow, other than by not implementing potential measures such as a tax raid on banks."
on.ft.com/4a0JDOz
Sorry, but don't good capitalist companies simply have the usual incentive? NGDP is rising at a good clip
on.ft.com/4a0JDOz
Sorry, but don't good capitalist companies simply have the usual incentive? NGDP is rising at a good clip
Business chides Reeves for not kick-starting growth in the Budget
Bosses accuse chancellor of not delivering on Labour’s pledge to boost output
on.ft.com
November 27, 2025 at 6:51 AM
"Several chief executives said Reeves had done little to incentivise businesses to grow, other than by not implementing potential measures such as a tax raid on banks."
on.ft.com/4a0JDOz
Sorry, but don't good capitalist companies simply have the usual incentive? NGDP is rising at a good clip
on.ft.com/4a0JDOz
Sorry, but don't good capitalist companies simply have the usual incentive? NGDP is rising at a good clip
As a Liverpool fan, someone who desperately wants England to regain the Ashes, and person keen to see fuel duty rising again, I'm having a tough time. Send encouraging thoughts
November 27, 2025 at 6:38 AM
As a Liverpool fan, someone who desperately wants England to regain the Ashes, and person keen to see fuel duty rising again, I'm having a tough time. Send encouraging thoughts
Reposted by Giles Wilkes
Who were the winners and losers of Reeves’s budget?
How will her measures affect growth?
Has the chancellor finally set a coherent tax strategy?
Feat. @jillongovt.bsky.social @gilesyb.bsky.social @danhaile.bsky.social and @drhannahwhite.bsky.social
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/i...
How will her measures affect growth?
Has the chancellor finally set a coherent tax strategy?
Feat. @jillongovt.bsky.social @gilesyb.bsky.social @danhaile.bsky.social and @drhannahwhite.bsky.social
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/i...
Autumn budget 2025: What is Rachel Reeves’ plan for the economy?
Podcast Episode · Inside Briefing with the Institute for Government · 26/11/2025 · 57m
podcasts.apple.com
November 26, 2025 at 8:32 PM
Who were the winners and losers of Reeves’s budget?
How will her measures affect growth?
Has the chancellor finally set a coherent tax strategy?
Feat. @jillongovt.bsky.social @gilesyb.bsky.social @danhaile.bsky.social and @drhannahwhite.bsky.social
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/i...
How will her measures affect growth?
Has the chancellor finally set a coherent tax strategy?
Feat. @jillongovt.bsky.social @gilesyb.bsky.social @danhaile.bsky.social and @drhannahwhite.bsky.social
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/i...
I'm hearing criticisms of the end to the two child limit, because it was done just to mollify Labour backbenchers, at a cost of £billions.
I remember another govt delivering a referendum on EU membership, just to mollify restive backbenchers. That's costing way, way more... A little perspective?
I remember another govt delivering a referendum on EU membership, just to mollify restive backbenchers. That's costing way, way more... A little perspective?
November 26, 2025 at 6:54 PM
I'm hearing criticisms of the end to the two child limit, because it was done just to mollify Labour backbenchers, at a cost of £billions.
I remember another govt delivering a referendum on EU membership, just to mollify restive backbenchers. That's costing way, way more... A little perspective?
I remember another govt delivering a referendum on EU membership, just to mollify restive backbenchers. That's costing way, way more... A little perspective?