James Bowes
@jamesbowes01.bsky.social
210 followers 53 following 1.4K posts
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 1h
It depends on what terms we could join the customs union on. Turkey have a customs union with the EU but get none of the benefits of the free trade agreements the EU signs with third countries.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 3h
I’m doing one in data analysis.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 3h
Work purposes*
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 3h
In many respects the push for Brexit was a reaction to David Cameron’s policy of having immigration for work purposely only from the EU and not from non-EU countries. Of course EU immigration was going to rise massively to fill the gap.

bsky.app/profile/jame...
James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 3d
You might be thinking, surely immigration restrictions won't work as they've always failed in the past. However, David Cameron was very actually successful at cutting non-EU immigration dramatically. The only thing is EU immigration increased to fill the gap, which couldn't happen this time. (6/x)
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 6h
There are a lot of Roma in Italy though so there could genuinely be a lot of Italian Roma. In the UK census they clustered heavily in London.
James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 20h
Most games work well for me normally, but there are a few that I just can't get working. Bully always crashes for example. (I still can't believe they actually made that as a game haha).
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 1d
I assume they’ll prioritise UK graduates now. Most of the applications are from overseas. The acceptance rate is already much higher amongst U.K. graduates than international applicants but it’s not 100%.
James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 1d
Sometimes I wonder if he’s trying to get himself kicked out of the Conservatives to make himself a martyr but it’s just not working as Kemi lets anything go.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 1d
Yes, banking type jobs have held up best (but have still fallen). Accounting has fallen a lot, and consulting has fallen somewhat. Nursing is the most extreme (because of budgetary issues in the NHS) but also IT is pretty steep. Doctors will fall if they prioritise UK graduates for training posts.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 1d
I think it does risk the pipeline from international students as whilst they may well get a job paying the new entrant rate, they’ll struggle to be earning the higher of £41,700 and the median salary for their occupation within 4 years of graduation. Maybe in banking they’ll be okay.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 1d
The other uncertainty is whether the jobs market and economy will pick up for high skilled jobs. If this happens we could see an increase in high skilled workers (not to 2022 levels), but only if they aren’t made to wait 10 years for ILR.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 1d
The biggest uncertainty I think is with respect to asylum. The number of people crossing into Europe as a whole is collapsing. However, the percentage of asylum claims in Europe that are made in the U.K. is increasing, in part due to clampdowns in countries like Germany.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 1d
Yes this is a large part of it but also it’s because of immigration restrictions. I think the factors you mention will put off high skilled workers (who remain eligible for a work visa), especially the 10 year wait for Indefinite Leave to Remain, but also fear of Reform and the media climate.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 1d
I do think there’s another factor here as well though of Germany pushing people back at the border. People could be redirected to other countries. The Netherlands, Belgium and Switzerland have seen an increase in asylum claims by Eritreans as well not just the U.K.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 1d
The most obvious sign of this I think is that the number of Iranians crossing the Channel has significantly outnumbered the numbers entering the EU for the last few years. Because they were already in other countries, mainly Germany.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 1d
They haven’t all applied no, but a lot have. The last figures I’ve seen on this were pre-pandemic though and it was about 40-50% of people from some nationalities (Iranians, Iraqis, Afghans, Eritreans and Sudanese) that had already applied elsewhere first. It’ll be lower now for Afghans.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 1d
Possibly a lot of the Sudanese people and some of the Afghans have applied in France, but I think it’s more common for Iranians, Iraqis, Eritreans and Somalis (and some Afghans) to have applied in Germany rather than France.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 1d
I often buy Christmas food when it comes out in September eg mince pies, Christmas cake and stollen. I once had a Christmas pudding in September just because I could. If it tastes nice at Christmas, it tastes nice any time.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 1d
Do you think there's anything in the theory I've seen in a few recent news articles, that the increase in Channel crossings by asylum seekers in 2025 has been primarily driven by the clampdown by EU countries (particularly Germany) meaning failed asylum seekers come here to avoid deportation?
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 1d
The difference is the repatriation is voluntary with the BNP and mandatory with the Conservatives. (Policy for illegal immigrants and refugees is the same).
James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 1d
Its not even many people with ILR that are claiming: www.msn.com/en-gb/news/u...
MSN
www.msn.com
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 2d
India is the top country but China and other East Asian countries are particularly overrepresented (they don’t allow dual citizenship either). USA, Canada and Australia also overrepresented but they do allow dual citizenship.
James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 2d
Just a disclaimer on the numbers, I have included recently arrived people on settlement path visas in the total, the majority (but not all) of whom would be expected to obtain ILR in due course. People with ILR alone is about 500,000 (430,000 who arrived in the last 20 years, when figures start).
James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 2d
The only difference is they’re proposing £38,700 as the threshold not £60,000. So basically they’re proposing to deport 2 million legal immigrants not 3 million (I haven’t checked the exact earnings breakdown so these are estimates). Still a really extremist far right position.
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James Bowes @jamesbowes01.bsky.social · 2d
What about the beer in Conker’s Bad Fur Day?

I was only allowed to buy this when I was younger because I said it was a cartoon squirrel game. Technically true but…

m.youtube.com/watch?v=_t-Q...
Conker's Bad Fur Day Pissing Fire Imps
YouTube video by skelet0r1234
m.youtube.com
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