James Bowes
@jamesbowes01.bsky.social
If the government allow the lower going rates and salary thresholds to expire as planned in April 2030, it is definitely a deportation policy. You also have to ask what will happen with visa renewals for care workers when it falls off the Immigration Salary List or for jobs downgraded to low skilled
February 6, 2026 at 11:29 AM
If the government allow the lower going rates and salary thresholds to expire as planned in April 2030, it is definitely a deportation policy. You also have to ask what will happen with visa renewals for care workers when it falls off the Immigration Salary List or for jobs downgraded to low skilled
The only one it didn't is Sajid Javid.
February 5, 2026 at 6:07 PM
The only one it didn't is Sajid Javid.
They've kept 5 years for doctors and nurses (but not for their families, most of them will be on the 10 year route to settlement). But care workers the government are very strongly trying to pressure to leave the country. They face a 15 year route to settlement and a harder time renewing their visa.
February 5, 2026 at 5:55 PM
They've kept 5 years for doctors and nurses (but not for their families, most of them will be on the 10 year route to settlement). But care workers the government are very strongly trying to pressure to leave the country. They face a 15 year route to settlement and a harder time renewing their visa.
verfassungsblog.de/migration-sw...
It looks like it is proposed for refugees and not for everyone with ILR.
It looks like it is proposed for refugees and not for everyone with ILR.
When Permanent Turns Temporary
verfassungsblog.de
February 4, 2026 at 5:00 PM
verfassungsblog.de/migration-sw...
It looks like it is proposed for refugees and not for everyone with ILR.
It looks like it is proposed for refugees and not for everyone with ILR.
Yes those countries, but also even larger numbers from Commonwealth countries like India, Nigeria and Pakistan. This was mostly driven by health and social care, plus more international students who were more likely to stay after their course.
February 4, 2026 at 4:54 PM
Yes those countries, but also even larger numbers from Commonwealth countries like India, Nigeria and Pakistan. This was mostly driven by health and social care, plus more international students who were more likely to stay after their course.
I think it goes below zero for a few years if the government push ahead with the new ILR rules and apply them retrospectively.
February 4, 2026 at 4:50 PM
I think it goes below zero for a few years if the government push ahead with the new ILR rules and apply them retrospectively.
Assuming they've been here over 5 years this likely would break the EU Long Term Residence Directive. @stevepeers.bsky.social do you know the legal implications of this decision by Sweden?
February 4, 2026 at 4:45 PM
Assuming they've been here over 5 years this likely would break the EU Long Term Residence Directive. @stevepeers.bsky.social do you know the legal implications of this decision by Sweden?
No but I think they'll make it harder to move from ILR to citizenship and stop benefits for people without citizenship.
February 4, 2026 at 4:43 PM
No but I think they'll make it harder to move from ILR to citizenship and stop benefits for people without citizenship.
It's a deportation by stealth policy. They don't want to be as blatant as Reform but the end goal is very similar. There's no way everyone who wants to stay will be able to continually renew their visa or find new jobs for 15 years. Especially once the lower going rates expire in April 2030.
February 4, 2026 at 9:41 AM
It's a deportation by stealth policy. They don't want to be as blatant as Reform but the end goal is very similar. There's no way everyone who wants to stay will be able to continually renew their visa or find new jobs for 15 years. Especially once the lower going rates expire in April 2030.
It seems very arbitrary to apply it retrospectively to some people but not others (especially for people who came before the White Paper). Also it wouldn't really be that many more people protected if they protect everyone as care workers numbers collapsed towards the end of 2023.
February 3, 2026 at 6:18 PM
It seems very arbitrary to apply it retrospectively to some people but not others (especially for people who came before the White Paper). Also it wouldn't really be that many more people protected if they protect everyone as care workers numbers collapsed towards the end of 2023.
Also in there 'the government also intends to make it more difficult for visa holders to bring dependants'. If I had to guess what they'll do, it's that they'll apply an A1 language test to the dependant and make the visa holder have to earn £29,000 to align with family visa rules.
February 2, 2026 at 7:16 PM
Also in there 'the government also intends to make it more difficult for visa holders to bring dependants'. If I had to guess what they'll do, it's that they'll apply an A1 language test to the dependant and make the visa holder have to earn £29,000 to align with family visa rules.
It's likely that a lot of the Eritrean and Somali refugees coming here are people that were refugees in Ethiopia at some point. I doubt this is true for Sudanese refugees though. Maybe things like the Tigray War and drought drove people to move to Libya and then to Europe?
February 2, 2026 at 4:22 PM
It's likely that a lot of the Eritrean and Somali refugees coming here are people that were refugees in Ethiopia at some point. I doubt this is true for Sudanese refugees though. Maybe things like the Tigray War and drought drove people to move to Libya and then to Europe?
This article understates things by the way. Far more people on work visas would be on the 15-year route than the 10-year route. I made it somewhere between 700,000 and 900,000 people ending up on the 15-year route when I estimated it.
February 2, 2026 at 2:13 PM
This article understates things by the way. Far more people on work visas would be on the 15-year route than the 10-year route. I made it somewhere between 700,000 and 900,000 people ending up on the 15-year route when I estimated it.
Moved by Labour. The Conservatives, for all their very many flaws, never moved the goalposts on people when they were already here.
February 1, 2026 at 10:40 AM
Moved by Labour. The Conservatives, for all their very many flaws, never moved the goalposts on people when they were already here.
I remember this sort of thing being really bad even under New Labour. While many things welfare of course got worse under the coalition, this was already bad before they got to it. They'd openly give you contradictory instructions deliberately to try to catch you out.
January 29, 2026 at 11:50 PM
I remember this sort of thing being really bad even under New Labour. While many things welfare of course got worse under the coalition, this was already bad before they got to it. They'd openly give you contradictory instructions deliberately to try to catch you out.
I don't see how you can be pro-immigration then against immigrants actually having somewhere to live. I'd never vote Greens because I think homelessness would go through the roof with their policies.
January 27, 2026 at 12:35 PM
I don't see how you can be pro-immigration then against immigrants actually having somewhere to live. I'd never vote Greens because I think homelessness would go through the roof with their policies.
Shadowgate was there first: youtu.be/RKuvzuq6u5A?...
Sword death shadowgate nes
YouTube video by Fredthebloop Quinn
youtu.be
January 26, 2026 at 9:50 AM
Shadowgate was there first: youtu.be/RKuvzuq6u5A?...
Middlesbrough and Coventry have (or until very recently had) the highest net migration per capita in the country and it’s about equal. Teesside University is Middlesbrough’s university and Middlesbrough is much smaller than Coventry. It makes perfect sense.
January 24, 2026 at 9:23 PM
Middlesbrough and Coventry have (or until very recently had) the highest net migration per capita in the country and it’s about equal. Teesside University is Middlesbrough’s university and Middlesbrough is much smaller than Coventry. It makes perfect sense.
People are going to end up getting their glasses smashed ‘just in case they’re filming with them’.
January 24, 2026 at 12:25 PM
People are going to end up getting their glasses smashed ‘just in case they’re filming with them’.
For population planning reasons you definitely need to include international students and people on the graduate visa. They’re a sizeable proportion of the population in places like Coventry or Middlesbrough. But on the other hand settlement path visas are a better guide to long term trends.
January 24, 2026 at 10:18 AM
For population planning reasons you definitely need to include international students and people on the graduate visa. They’re a sizeable proportion of the population in places like Coventry or Middlesbrough. But on the other hand settlement path visas are a better guide to long term trends.
One of the worst pro-immigration arguments I hear is 'international students shouldn't count as immigrants because they nearly all go home after their course'. It's just an outright lie these days (although it was largely true before 2021).
January 24, 2026 at 9:49 AM
One of the worst pro-immigration arguments I hear is 'international students shouldn't count as immigrants because they nearly all go home after their course'. It's just an outright lie these days (although it was largely true before 2021).
Backs up what I discovered here about how diverse the EU national population is in the U.K.: ukandeu.ac.uk/diversity-eu...
The surprising diversity of the EU national population in the UK - UK in a changing Europe
James Bowes unpacks the latest census and EU Settlement Scheme data to explore the diversity of the EU national population in the UK.
ukandeu.ac.uk
January 23, 2026 at 2:09 PM
Backs up what I discovered here about how diverse the EU national population is in the U.K.: ukandeu.ac.uk/diversity-eu...