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Reposted by Julien Barnes-Dacey

ECFR @ecfr.eu · 2d

1/ Israel and Hamas have reached an agreement on the first Phase of Trump's plan. Nevertheless, the details are still unclear. Yet, our experts @hlovatt.bsky.social, @jbdacey.bsky.social and @muhammadshehada.bsky.social analysed its gaps in the recent papers @ecfrmena.bsky.social 👇
bit.ly/4gRX0Sg

An imperfect promise: Where Trump’s peace plan for Gaza falls short

Trump’s peace plan could finally bring an end to Israel’s destruction of Gaza. But gaps in timing, guarantees, and last-minute Israeli amendments risk failure unless European and Arab states intervene...

ecfr.eu

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Reposted by Julien Barnes-Dacey

ECFR @ecfr.eu · 5d

🚨 Emergency podcast
Mark Leonard welcomes @hlovatt.bsky.social to unpack Donald Trump’s peace plan for Gaza and what it means for Israel, Hamas, and Europe @ecfrmena.bsky.social
🔗 Listen to the full episode 👇 bit.ly/4nEYLoF

Trump’s Gaza plan

Mark Leonard welcomes Hugh Lovatt to unpack Donald Trump’s peace plan for Gaza and what it means for Israel, Hamas, and Europe.

bit.ly

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Reposted by Julien Barnes-Dacey

ECFR @ecfr.eu · 5d

Meloni aims to redefine Italy’s relationship with countries to its south by creating equal partnerships with partner states. This also involves enhancing the role of the private sector, write @kellyp90.bsky.social and @arturovarvelli.bsky.social @ecfrmena.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/42r0HbI

The turtle and the pilot fish: How the EU and Italy can help each other in the Mediterranean

Italy and the EU must work more closely together in the “Wider Mediterranean” on energy, migration and security. Here’s how they can do it.

bit.ly

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Reposted by Julien Barnes-Dacey

Julien Barnes-Dacey @jbdacey.bsky.social · 8d

Following the announcement of Trump's Gaza plan this is an important piece to revisit by @muhammadshehada.bsky.social on question of Hamas disarmament @ecfr.eu @ecfrmena.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/deco...

Decommission, not disarm: How Europe can help nudge Gaza toward peace

As Israel and Hamas edge toward a ceasefire, shifts are under way in both: Hamas is quietly opening up to decommissioning and Israel’s security elite is realising military victory is a myth.

ecfr.eu

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Reposted by Julien Barnes-Dacey

ECFR MENA @ecfrmena.bsky.social · 8d

NEW piece unpacking the security & governance dimensions of Trump's Gaza plan - and outlining necessary benchmarks & guarantees, especially on an Israeli withdrawal, for any hope of success - new by @hlovatt.bsky.social & @muhammadshehada.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/an-i...

An imperfect promise: Where Trump’s peace plan for Gaza falls short

Trump’s peace plan could finally bring an end to Israel’s destruction of Gaza. But gaps in timing, guarantees, and last-minute Israeli amendments risk failure unless European and Arab states intervene...

ecfr.eu

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Julien Barnes-Dacey @jbdacey.bsky.social · 8d

Following the announcement of Trump's Gaza plan this is an important piece to revisit by @muhammadshehada.bsky.social on question of Hamas disarmament @ecfr.eu @ecfrmena.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/deco...

Decommission, not disarm: How Europe can help nudge Gaza toward peace

As Israel and Hamas edge toward a ceasefire, shifts are under way in both: Hamas is quietly opening up to decommissioning and Israel’s security elite is realising military victory is a myth.

ecfr.eu

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Reposted by Julien Barnes-Dacey

Haid Haid @haidhaid22.bsky.social · 12d

1/3 With #Syria’s (indirect) #parliamentary #elections less than a week away, I’ve put together an explainer on how the process works and the key issues to watch. A guide for both experts and observers.
www.arab-reform.net/publication/...

Syria’s Parliamentary Elections Explained: Six Key Issues to Watch

Syria’s transitional authorities have announced indirect parliamentary elections to be held later this month (most likely between 15-20 September) to elect 140 of the 210 members of the People’s As…

www.arab-reform.net

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Julien Barnes-Dacey @jbdacey.bsky.social · 10d

Euro support for Trump's plan - which has sound elements to help end the war - needs to be tied to Israel’s explicit acceptance of a Gaza withdrawal & political path. If not the process will surely unravel, trapping Europe as enforcers of Israeli occupation by proxy @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/article/trum...

Trump’s Gaza plan: How Europe can help make it happen

European states should offer support for the broad principles of the plan conditioned on a clear Israeli commitment to a full withdrawal from Gaza.

ecfr.eu

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Reposted by Julien Barnes-Dacey

ECFR MENA @ecfrmena.bsky.social · 11d

✍️ Now that European leaders have reimposed UN sanctions on Iran, they must steer clear of America’s maximum pressure campaign and instead keep the diplomatic door open. Read Ellie Geranmayeh's piece for @ecfr.eu here 👇 buff.ly/w6z0osT

The risks of the draw: Europe’s post-snapback move on Iran

European leaders have reimposed UN sanctions on Iran. Now they must steer clear of America’s maximum pressure campaign and instead keep the diplomatic door open…

buff.ly

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Julien Barnes-Dacey @jbdacey.bsky.social · 20d

What a sight. Stranded in Idlib just 10 months ago, the new Syrian leadership hit Central Park

Qusay Noor @qusaynoor.net · 20d

New picture from #America #Washington, #DC

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Julien Barnes-Dacey @jbdacey.bsky.social · 21d

“15 of every 16 Palestinians the Israeli military has killed since its renewed offensive in Gaza began in March have been civilians… internal data from the IDF indicated a civilian death toll of 83% between outbreak of war in Oct 2023 & May this year” www.theguardian.com/world/2025/s...

Civilians made up 15 of every 16 people killed by Israel in Gaza since March, data suggests

Report from independent conflict tracker Acled indicates one of the highest civilian death rates since start of war

www.theguardian.com

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Julien Barnes-Dacey @jbdacey.bsky.social · 22d

“identification with the Syrian state is at its lowest point…the consolidation of over 35 Druze armed factions…a de facto autonomous zone across central, southern & eastern Suwayda” - @ajaltamimi.bsky.social on hardening anti-Damascus Druze positioning www.aymennaltamimi.com/p/the-druze-...

The Druze 'National Guard' in Southern Syria

I am happy to share my latest article for ‘Syria in Transition’ on the ‘National Guard’ initiative in the primarily Druze province of al-Suwayda’ in southern Syria.

www.aymennaltamimi.com

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Julien Barnes-Dacey @jbdacey.bsky.social · 22d

On the mismatch in Israeli-Syrian negots & how it could feed deep ongoing instability. “For Syria, talks are a means to reduce conflict and assert sovereignty; for Israel, they serve as an extension of its strategy of coercion” writes @haidhaid22.bsky.social en.majalla.com/node/327415/...

Netanyahu’s ‘peace through force’ doctrine hurts Syria talks

Syria's foreign minister met Israeli officials in London on 17 September, sparking speculation that a deal is in the offing. But even if one is reached, it risks being more symbolic than substantive.

https://en.majalla.com/node/327415/politics/netanyahu’s-‘peace-through-force’-doctrine-hurts-syria-talks

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Julien Barnes-Dacey @jbdacey.bsky.social · 22d

Israel’s initial response to Oct 7 helped Gulf states by weakening Iran but it is now entrenching conflict, fragmenting Arab states & pulling Gulf states towards escalation, all of which also threatens Euro interests. @cinziabianco.bsky.social on post-Doha dynamics ecfr.eu/article/out-...

Out of the rubble: The new Gulf response to Israeli aggression

The Israeli attacks on Doha, and America’s support of them, has caused Gulf leaders to majorly rethink their security. This could lead to a new Gulf-led security format…

ecfr.eu

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Julien Barnes-Dacey @jbdacey.bsky.social · Sep 10

Qatar is at least the sixth country bombed by Israel in recent months. Europe must finally impose tangible pressure on Israel to end the Gaza war & its regional belligerence, doing far more to ensure its ties to Israel don't make it complicit in violations - new from @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/article/qata...

Qatar quake: Israel blows another hole in Middle East security

The Doha strike risks deepening regional scepticism of Western security partnerships in the Middle East. Europe needs to do much more to pressure Israel into ending the war in Gaza and curbing its reg...

ecfr.eu

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Julien Barnes-Dacey @jbdacey.bsky.social · Sep 10

“Lebanon is being treated like a country that lost a war...However, embarking on a civil conflict to satisfy voices in Washington & Tel Aviv is suicide. There is absolutely no reason for the Lebanese to destroy themselves in order to purportedly save themselves” carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/...

Ignore Siren Songs from Washington

The United States is pushing toward a military solution for Hezbollah’s weapons, the worst option of all.

carnegieendowment.org

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Julien Barnes-Dacey @jbdacey.bsky.social · Sep 10

Good paper by @abujamajem.com on Lebanese positioning on refugee returns and associated dynamics inside of Syria

Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · Aug 12

My new @tcfdotorg.bsky.social @centuryintl.bsky.social report on the Lebanese government's new Syrian refugee return plan – what the plan is, its realistic prospects, and how to deliver returns that are truly sustainable: tcf.org/content/repo...

Home to Syria: Lebanon’s New Refugee Returns Plan

Lebanon has grappled for years with how to manage its Syrian refugee population. This year, though, Lebanon finally adopted an official plan for refugee

tcf.org

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Reposted by Julien Barnes-Dacey

ECFR MENA @ecfrmena.bsky.social · Sep 4

🧵 With E3 triggering "snapback" against Iran, short window remains till UN sanctions return. In @foreignpolicy.com, Ellie Geranmayeh unpacks why E3 extension offer hit dead-end & proposes how to use upcoming UNGA to get Trump/Tehran re-invested in a deal buff.ly/UTpM7RH

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Julien Barnes-Dacey @jbdacey.bsky.social · Sep 9

Strong words of condemnation by Germany, UK & France (though not a peep from the EU yet) but - as with Gaza - don’t hold your breath for any meaningful response that would actually involve taking steps to pressure Israel

Thorsten Benner @tbenner.bsky.social · Sep 9

Scathing criticism by German FM Wadephul of Israel‘s „unacceptable“ Doha strike.
„violation of territorial sovereignty“
„endangers efforts to release hostages“
„expressed solidarity as well as gratitude for mediation efforts vis-à-vis Qatari foreign minister“
www.auswaertiges-amt.de/de/newsroom/...

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Julien Barnes-Dacey @jbdacey.bsky.social · Sep 9

For US allies in the Gulf the Israeli attacks affirm the hollowness of Washington’s security guarantees, for regional foes they affirm the hollowness of negotiations with Washington

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Julien Barnes-Dacey @jbdacey.bsky.social · Sep 9

Israel has now bombed Gaza, Syria, Lebanon, Iran, Yemen & Qatar this year. As we wrote recently Israel has become the Middle East’s leading destabiliser - its beyond time for Europeans to reject Israel’s embrace of war over diplomacy & apply real pressure ecfr.eu/article/enou...

Enough is enough: Europe needs to oppose Israel’s aggression

Israel has become the Middle East’s leading destabiliser, threatening key European interests. Europe must avoid making the same mistakes that led to the 2003 Iraq invasion…

ecfr.eu

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Julien Barnes-Dacey @jbdacey.bsky.social · Sep 9

Israel - surely with a US greenlight - bombs Hamas negotiators in Qatar, the US-backed mediating state with whom Washington has a security partnership. Tells you everything about ceasefire intentions…

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Reposted by Julien Barnes-Dacey

Rania Abouzeid @raniaab.bsky.social · Aug 1

My latest for @ecfr looks at efforts to find 100s of 1000s of Iraqis who are missing.Many are believed to be in mass graves. #Iraq has so many mass graves it has a specialized directorate. It even has a Mass Graves Day.Every number is a person who was part of a family that is integral to a community

ECFR @ecfr.eu · Jul 31

Visiting Fellow @raniaab.bsky.social's policy brief documents the ongoing attempt to identify and bring justice, dignity and closure to the disappearance and killings of hundreds of thousands of people in Iraq, many of whom are believed to be in mass graves @ecfrmena.bsky.social
buff.ly/9iQFPoX

Unearthing the past: Iraq’s mass graves and the quest for justice

A European-backed UN body explored mass graves in Iraq between 2018 and 2024, supporting steps towards justice and reconciliation—and providing wider lessons for the region…

ecfr.eu

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Reposted by Julien Barnes-Dacey

London Review of Books @lrb.co.uk · Aug 20

‘The politics of access to Gaza has helped sustain Western complicity in the genocide, despite the steady stream of evidence produced by Palestinians at enormous risk to their own lives. What it amounts to isn’t denial so much as plausible deniability.’

From the blog: www.lrb.co.uk/blog/2025/au...

Stefan Tarnowski | Plausible Deniability

From the sieges within the siege, Palestinian journalists are smeared as terrorists and assassinated by airstrike. Even...

www.lrb.co.uk

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Julien Barnes-Dacey @jbdacey.bsky.social · Aug 27

Marc Lynch’s forthcoming new book which looks as compelling as ever

Abu Aardvark’s Ghost @abuaardvark.bsky.social · Aug 14

“Written with passion, precision, honesty and courage. Essential reading on how American myopia, bias and hypocrisy set the stage for Gaza” — David D. Kirkpatrick

“The world needs this book, now more than ever.’ — Fida Jiryis

Pre-order America’s Middle East

www.hurstpublishers.com/book/america...

America's Middle East | Hurst Publishers

From the Gulf War to Gaza, a compelling critique of how and why Washington ensnared itself so destructively in the Middle East.

www.hurstpublishers.com

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