Lukas Hermwille
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lukashermwille.bsky.social
Lukas Hermwille
@lukashermwille.bsky.social

Social scientist working on global climate governance and transformative industrial policy. Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy.

Economics 39%
Environmental science 22%

Indeed. Follows the usual playbook to be able to sell a wind at the end of the meeting whatever it may be.

My favourite quote attributed to HL Mencken: For every complex problem, there is a solution that is clear, simple, and wrong.

Außerdem gibt es noch einen empfehlenswerten EEA Bericht: www.eea.europa.eu/en/analysis/... sowie einen Review Artikel von teilweise denselben Autorinnen: www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...
Just sustainability transitions — From concept to practice
This report considers how justice is tackled in the policies which are currently in place to deliver the European Green Deal. It summarises the lessons learnt for policy-makers seeking to achieve a fa...
www.eea.europa.eu

Auch aus unserem Projekt ist dieses Paper, was letzte Woche erschienen ist, mit einer Analyse des Just Transition Fund in der EU und seiner Wirkung (sehr econ...):
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
A regional model-based assessment of the socioeconomic impacts of EU climate neutrality pathways and the effectiveness of the Just Transition Fund
Europe has committed to turning climate neutral by 2050 in a just and socially fair way. The low-carbon transition entails a transformation of all pro…
www.sciencedirect.com

Umfangreicher und hoffentlich auch für nicht-Akademiker zugänglich ist unser JT:READY Guidebook. coaltransitions.org/tools/jtready/

Es gibt noch unglaublich viel mehr. Suchst du eher konzeptionell/theoretisches Material oder empirisches?
A Just Transition Readiness Evaluation Tool for coal regions | Coal Transitions
coaltransitions.org

Ich habe viel zu Just Transition aus regionaler Perspektive geforscht, mit Schwerpunkt auf Europa. Globale Perspektiven haben da keine zentrale Rolle gespielt. Die Essenz eines großen Projekts ist hier eingeflossen: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Compounding injustices can impede a just energy transition - Nature Energy
Coal and carbon-intensive regions have lagged behind in socioeconomic development, long before any transition-related structural changes were foreseeable. Acknowledging and tackling the compounding ef...
www.nature.com

Reposted by Lukas Hermwille

I think the most important issue at stake at #COP30 in #Bélem on mitigation is whether the #UNFCCC continues addressing the transitions needed to achieve the mitigation objectives of the #ParisAgreement - or gets forced back into discussing the global emissions gap only in abstract terms

As they say: Conservative politics is progressive politics 10 years later. Either we are seeing an acceleration of this dynamic or maybe the Green proposal wasn't all that progressive in the first place.

The problem with this proposal is that it assumes it is in everyone's interest to "solve" immigration. It is not! It has proved to be very effective in mobilising discourse and voters. Why would you want to give that tool out of hand?

Recently German political discourse is replete with attacks on the EU ETS. In an op-ed I argue that these attacks could easily become a self-fulfilling prophecy. It may help us short term we are shooting ourselves in the foot in the race for the future: wupperinst.org/en/a/wi/a/s/...
Weakening the EU Emissions Trading System Means Handing the Future Race to China
A statement of Dr. Lukas Hermwille, Co-Head of Transformative Industrial Policy Research Unit
wupperinst.org

I have been sitting in Cologne at a conference on industrial policy we're a lot of economists warned against corporate capture and rent seeking. But recent evidence suggests that we can have rent seeking even without industrial policy.

I am just wondering how much of the cult is personal and how much is ideological? And then I am probably too scared to admit that it probably doesn't matter once they have enough raw power..

In meinem Kopf entsteht gerade das Bild wie eine große Zahl von Entscheidungen in Schlange ansteht, und darauf wartet, dass der Behördenschalter öffnet... Ich glaube, dieses Bild ist Recht passend für den Zustand des Landes.

Also worked for Putin. Would be a shame to lose such valuable compromat...

Indeed. in GER it is quite clear that not all primary steelmaking capacity will prevail. At the same time massive reinvestments are necessary. We need a mechanism to coordinate this and perhaps compensate between winners and losers. Is we leave it to the invisible hand, everyone loses.

Let them calculate how much 1 million seconds are Vs. 1 billion seconds.
This is such a great new piece of research by @curdknupfer.bsky.social et al. It should be mandatory reading for journalists. academic.oup.com/joc/advance-...
Far-right challenges to liberal democratic press norms: “indexing by proxy” in a German immigration debate
Abstract. This study examines the mechanisms by which illiberal politics make the news by disrupting democratic systems. During the late 20th century, a li
academic.oup.com

I think they need ICE to secure "safe" mid-term elections. Are you ready for ICE squads at every polling station making sure everyone votes right?

Not sure they have that distinction clearly in their heads... Interestingly, the phase-out of free allocation was what they mentioned first. But that does not necessarily mean it was the more relevant "trigger". In any case, I do not think that there was one "trigger" anyway. Its always multicausal.

Absolutely. The same people were talking about the "effective carbon price" they are facing. They were clearly not considering opportunity costs...

It may depend on the design, though. I recently interviewed GER steelmakers who clearly said that the outlook of zero free allocation in 2034 and zero new allowances in 39 was the main prompt to investigate alternative steel tech...

...Panagiotis Fragkos, Ioannis Charalampidis, Eeva Kesküla and Annela Anger-Kraavi

And 4️⃣ we need to start acknowledging that social and economic stress caused by the energy transition requires emotional labour from, and support for, those affected.

3️⃣ We need to promote inclusivity and representation of local community actors identified as particularly exposed to compounding injustices based on a robust empirical foundation.

2️⃣ We need to establish a robust monitoring system to systematically map existing and prospective injustices and inequalities.

1️⃣ We need to acknowledge and better address these compounding injustices by focusing more on energy transition processes that also meaningfully address procedural and recognition injustices.

And particularly problematic are instances in which new transformation injustices overlap and intersect with old legacy injustices. This is what we call COMPOUNDING INJUSTICES
From this insight we draw four main policy recommendations:

When we talk about Just Transition we all too often focus on newly emerging injustices that originate from the transformation. However, in CINTRAN we found that more often than not old injustices originating from fossil fuel legacies of those regions are jeopardizing a genuinely just transition.