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Marios Richards

@mariosrichards.bsky.social

1.8K followers 1.1K following 11K posts

Frequently wrong. Please correct (effort involved appreciated). Experiments with Data Visualisation: https://github.com/MariosRichards/BES_analysis_code https://medium.com/@mariosrichards https://mariosrichards.substack.com/

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 4h

(First time ever (in BESIP), Labour's like support 'axis' is wedged between Greens and Lib Dems rather than being to the (ec) left of the Greens)

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 4h

Yeah - as far as I can tell it's something that *everyone* feels - as there's a strongly linear relationship with values same as other national parties (bar LDs) but just a higher intercept.

Not a new phenomenon, but one whose implications are starting to look non-hypothetical.

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 4h

Good point - I'd made a note to redo my rank with BES like data *with everything under/=5 remove* but I'd got distracted.

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 5h

I mean, we slammed the doors shut in the 1930s.

Well, until Poland got invaded and we had the opportunity to pick up fighter pilots right before being threatened with air attacks.

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 7h

Sadly, it's horribly consistent.

All the fluff about Serious Concerns being motivated by absolute immigrant numbers/difficulties of assimilation ...

... dissolves the moment they look at a country with 85%+ immigration *so long as they are explicitly and tangibly second class citizens*.

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 9h

Why not simply introduce a (tax on takes about) wealth tax?

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 9h

Yeah - I was thinking Macchiavelli's Florence is maybe closer to what people pitching Dubai imagine the status quo to be.

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 10h

> how it plays to audiences at home

For me, it begins and ends with "consider your local Jewish population and make your position as unambiguously about Israeli govt actions as possible".

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 10h

I'm all for "suck all human emotion out of actions and always act strategically" - but this looks like a straight-forward case of "you should just say what you think, not attempt to condition it on an analysis nobody is competent to perform".

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 10h

But obviously that's a weaker argument given that dY% is harder to pin down ...

... but, more importantly, dY% is something an Israeli govt should think about and **maybe** something a Norwegian govt should consider - but it's not something the Norway Tram Worker's Union should consider.

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 10h

I'm sure it's possible to make an argument on the margins - X% of Israelis responded to "calls to stop gaza killings by saying they further entrenched their beliefs" but X+dY% did the same for "the occupation should end".

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 10h

Sure - I get that part - but I've also been listening to reportage over the last two years saying that *Israeli citizens* "did not see it as an actual demand but actually an excuse to stigmatise them" - and responded with quotes (like those in your first reply).

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 10h

You still have the issue of having to draw a line with Reform on whether you'd join a defensive war if Russia invaded Poland.

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 10h

Interesting moment - weak point but also an opportunity to 'reposition' Greens on NATO without enraging past support (because you can now *commit to NATO* AND *distance yourself from the US*) and specifically create distance from Reform.

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 10h

I don't think citizens of any country appreciate foreign boycotts - even with hugely unpopular governments - even in autocracies!

If that were a necessary basis for a boycott, then how many boycotts would ever pass that bar?

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 10h

And how was that different from the appeals to "stop killing in gaza"?

Did Israeli citizens see that as a 'specific enough demand that they appreciated the narrowness and implementability of the proposal'?

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 10h

You asked (3rd person implicative!) for *a specific demand* to clarify it's not just jew hate ... and then you reply to the first clear response with "pff too specific".

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 10h

If people want to spend their time preaching on a shit platform, they're welcome to.

But if they want to tell me that I'm morally obliged to do it as well, they'd better have some really impressive evidence that they've managed to have an impact.

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 10h

The experience didn't change because people left. People left because the experience changed.

Partly because of the content algorithm being screwed with to promote Musk-approved content.

But also just generally shit.

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 10h

Most of the "the problem is that the left abandoned twitter" arguments don't engage with the fact most of "the left" (def however) former twitter users haven't deleted their accounts and may occasionally even log in.

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 20h

Picky, picky, picky.

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 21h

I mean, Kemi Badenoch wasn't in charge for the last 14 years either - hasn't helped her any.

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 21h

Not being in government reduces the impact - but not to zero.

I mean, if it didn't Opposition parties would suffer no cost for any policy position (bar a tiny lag after leaving office).

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 21h

Appears to be trying to argue that only a Good Enslaver can defeat a Bad Enslaver.

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 22h

Either way, puts a methodological question mark over Green support (their occasional much higher support base might be an illusory artefact - or something that will suddenly concretise and surprise everyone).

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