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Marios Richards

@mariosrichards.bsky.social

1.8K followers 1.1K following 11K posts

Frequently wrong. Please correct (effort involved appreciated). Experiments with Data Visualisation: https://github.com/MariosRichards/BES_analysis_code https://medium.com/@mariosrichards https://mariosrichards.substack.com/

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 1h

Why not simply introduce a (tax on takes about) wealth tax?

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 1h

Yeah - I was thinking Macchiavelli's Florence is maybe closer to what people pitching Dubai imagine the status quo to be.

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 2h

> how it plays to audiences at home

For me, it begins and ends with "consider your local Jewish population and make your position as unambiguously about Israeli govt actions as possible".

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 2h

I'm all for "suck all human emotion out of actions and always act strategically" - but this looks like a straight-forward case of "you should just say what you think, not attempt to condition it on an analysis nobody is competent to perform".

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 2h

But obviously that's a weaker argument given that dY% is harder to pin down ...

... but, more importantly, dY% is something an Israeli govt should think about and **maybe** something a Norwegian govt should consider - but it's not something the Norway Tram Worker's Union should consider.

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 2h

I'm sure it's possible to make an argument on the margins - X% of Israelis responded to "calls to stop gaza killings by saying they further entrenched their beliefs" but X+dY% did the same for "the occupation should end".

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 2h

Sure - I get that part - but I've also been listening to reportage over the last two years saying that *Israeli citizens* "did not see it as an actual demand but actually an excuse to stigmatise them" - and responded with quotes (like those in your first reply).

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 2h

You still have the issue of having to draw a line with Reform on whether you'd join a defensive war if Russia invaded Poland.

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 2h

Interesting moment - weak point but also an opportunity to 'reposition' Greens on NATO without enraging past support (because you can now *commit to NATO* AND *distance yourself from the US*) and specifically create distance from Reform.

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 2h

I don't think citizens of any country appreciate foreign boycotts - even with hugely unpopular governments - even in autocracies!

If that were a necessary basis for a boycott, then how many boycotts would ever pass that bar?

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 2h

And how was that different from the appeals to "stop killing in gaza"?

Did Israeli citizens see that as a 'specific enough demand that they appreciated the narrowness and implementability of the proposal'?

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 3h

You asked (3rd person implicative!) for *a specific demand* to clarify it's not just jew hate ... and then you reply to the first clear response with "pff too specific".

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 3h

If people want to spend their time preaching on a shit platform, they're welcome to.

But if they want to tell me that I'm morally obliged to do it as well, they'd better have some really impressive evidence that they've managed to have an impact.

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 3h

The experience didn't change because people left. People left because the experience changed.

Partly because of the content algorithm being screwed with to promote Musk-approved content.

But also just generally shit.

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 3h

Most of the "the problem is that the left abandoned twitter" arguments don't engage with the fact most of "the left" (def however) former twitter users haven't deleted their accounts and may occasionally even log in.

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 12h

Picky, picky, picky.

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 13h

I mean, Kemi Badenoch wasn't in charge for the last 14 years either - hasn't helped her any.

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 14h

Not being in government reduces the impact - but not to zero.

I mean, if it didn't Opposition parties would suffer no cost for any policy position (bar a tiny lag after leaving office).

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 14h

Appears to be trying to argue that only a Good Enslaver can defeat a Bad Enslaver.

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 14h

Either way, puts a methodological question mark over Green support (their occasional much higher support base might be an illusory artefact - or something that will suddenly concretise and surprise everyone).

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 14h

The questions look basically the same and it doesn't look like there's an unstated "likelihood to vote" filter so I wonder if it's just the difference between asking people to give each party a like value vs asking people to directly rank parties on how they like them.

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 14h

Interesting - LDs consistently get a very good mid-rank on this, but the position of Greens while good isn't nearly as good as when you build this from independent party ranking (likeCon, likeGrn, likeLab etc).

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 14h

I'd say the Conservatives were wise to be in Opposition now, if they weren't sinking beneath the cyan waves.

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 14h

This is 100% true.

Unfortunately, this area isn't exceptional.

And the polls are stating that even the *status quo* is "British politics turns upside down".

And the only thing grimmer than our domestic situation - or our regional situation - is the global situation.

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 15h

But it does even that specific thing worse than social housing.