Phil Swatton
@philswatton.bsky.social
Work as a senior data scientist at the Alan Turing Institute, background in political science. Views my own and not necessarily shared by my employer.
https://philswatton.github.io/
https://philswatton.github.io/
Fear of the machine's impact on work dates at least to the Luddites, but nonetheless fascinating to come across something like this from JFK's 1960 presidential campaign:
February 14, 2026 at 8:42 AM
Fear of the machine's impact on work dates at least to the Luddites, but nonetheless fascinating to come across something like this from JFK's 1960 presidential campaign:
Reposted by Phil Swatton
Nick Vivyan, Chris Hanretty (@chanret.bsky.social) and I have a new book out: “Idiosyncratic Issue Opinion and Political Choice”. The core of the book is making the argument that citizens’ views about political issues neither reduce to an ideological orientation nor to a lack of substance. (1/10)
February 13, 2026 at 2:42 PM
Nick Vivyan, Chris Hanretty (@chanret.bsky.social) and I have a new book out: “Idiosyncratic Issue Opinion and Political Choice”. The core of the book is making the argument that citizens’ views about political issues neither reduce to an ideological orientation nor to a lack of substance. (1/10)
Reposted by Phil Swatton
Fascinating thread on the enduring influence of Red Vienna’s scientific worldview.
So a somewhat long response based largely on the notes I took from said Cockett's book (yalebooks.co.uk/book/9780300...), but:
In 1919, the Social Democratic Worker's Party wins control of Vienna. It doesn't lose this control until around 1934 when Austrian democracy's demise fully begun.
In 1919, the Social Democratic Worker's Party wins control of Vienna. It doesn't lose this control until around 1934 when Austrian democracy's demise fully begun.
February 8, 2026 at 2:31 PM
Fascinating thread on the enduring influence of Red Vienna’s scientific worldview.
Read this earlier today and it's a great and thoughtful piece. Too much discourse among the left on AI has fallen into a lazy hostility largely disinterested in the technology. This piece is a real antidote
People say AI will be the end of democracy. Will it? A reasoned answer here from me today.
AI and the destruction of democracy
Can we, should we, tame the beast?
open.substack.com
February 8, 2026 at 10:40 AM
Read this earlier today and it's a great and thoughtful piece. Too much discourse among the left on AI has fallen into a lazy hostility largely disinterested in the technology. This piece is a real antidote
Materialist vs post materialist values (though I don't think anyone sees it as sacrosanct??)
Id like to run a special issue of a social science journal on "Calling Bullshit" where people can just go on a full on rant (anonymously if they like) and rip well established ideas to shreds. Zero requirements to be balanced or polite or have any respect for pompous senior professors.
February 5, 2026 at 12:03 PM
Materialist vs post materialist values (though I don't think anyone sees it as sacrosanct??)
I think there's a very interesting piece to be written on why so many experts are going so wrong on the question of whether AGI has been achieved
A pretty bold comment in Nature written by linguists, computer scientists and philosophers declaring that AGI has been achieved.
"By reasonable standards, including Turing’s own, we have artificial systems that are generally intelligent. The long-standing problem of creating AGI has been solved."
"By reasonable standards, including Turing’s own, we have artificial systems that are generally intelligent. The long-standing problem of creating AGI has been solved."
February 3, 2026 at 8:17 AM
I think there's a very interesting piece to be written on why so many experts are going so wrong on the question of whether AGI has been achieved
Had no idea how interesting Alexandre Kojeve was as a personality. Some highlights:
- Admitted to putting his opinions under Hegel's name
- Sent a philosophical treatise to Stalin during WW2
- Had an affair w/ a married woman, her brother-in-law concluded she was right
www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v4...
- Admitted to putting his opinions under Hegel's name
- Sent a philosophical treatise to Stalin during WW2
- Had an affair w/ a married woman, her brother-in-law concluded she was right
www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v4...
Jonathan Rée · We are all layabouts now: Kojève v. Hegel
Alexandre Kojève described his book on Hegel as ‘very bad’, and he had a point. His take on the Phenomenology of...
www.lrb.co.uk
January 28, 2026 at 8:36 PM
Had no idea how interesting Alexandre Kojeve was as a personality. Some highlights:
- Admitted to putting his opinions under Hegel's name
- Sent a philosophical treatise to Stalin during WW2
- Had an affair w/ a married woman, her brother-in-law concluded she was right
www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v4...
- Admitted to putting his opinions under Hegel's name
- Sent a philosophical treatise to Stalin during WW2
- Had an affair w/ a married woman, her brother-in-law concluded she was right
www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v4...
Reposted by Phil Swatton
If you want to know what actual political academics think of Matt Goodwin you can read quite a lot of their thoughts in this profile of him I wrote in 2024 (free with registration)
www.thenewworld.co.uk/james-ball-m...
www.thenewworld.co.uk/james-ball-m...
Matt Goodwin’s fall into the abyss
How a once respected academic embarked on a “sad, depressing journey of radicalisation”
www.thenewworld.co.uk
January 27, 2026 at 3:30 PM
If you want to know what actual political academics think of Matt Goodwin you can read quite a lot of their thoughts in this profile of him I wrote in 2024 (free with registration)
www.thenewworld.co.uk/james-ball-m...
www.thenewworld.co.uk/james-ball-m...
As others have said, this is brilliant in its clarity and its willingness to articulate an argument. Couldn't help but think of recent discussions on the lack of thought in British political life while reading it
open.substack.com/pub/paulwell...
open.substack.com/pub/paulwell...
The Carney doctrine
Open comment thread on the PM's Davos speech
open.substack.com
January 21, 2026 at 6:19 AM
As others have said, this is brilliant in its clarity and its willingness to articulate an argument. Couldn't help but think of recent discussions on the lack of thought in British political life while reading it
open.substack.com/pub/paulwell...
open.substack.com/pub/paulwell...
Reposted by Phil Swatton
Mark Carney's speech really is terrific: full text is here and very much worth your time.
The Carney doctrine
Open comment thread on the PM's Davos speech
paulwells.substack.com
January 20, 2026 at 5:52 PM
Mark Carney's speech really is terrific: full text is here and very much worth your time.
The same is true of Britain and the longer we take to act on this reality the more painful it will be
From Carney's Davos speech: "A country that cannot feed itself, fuel itself or defend itself has few options. When the rules no longer protect you, you must protect yourself" www.cbc.ca/news/politic...
'The old order is not coming back,' Carney says in provocative speech at Davos | CBC News
Prime Minister Mark Carney delivered a frank assessment of how he views the world in a provocative speech in Davos, Switzerland, on Tuesday, where he said the longstanding U.S.-led, rules-based international...
www.cbc.ca
January 20, 2026 at 5:02 PM
The same is true of Britain and the longer we take to act on this reality the more painful it will be
Absolutely fantastic piece. Mitchell is an all too rare voice of reason in the discourse around the intelligence of LLMs and other ML models
My latest on Substack -- a write-up of the talk I gave at NeurIPS in December.
aiguide.substack.com/p/on-evaluat...
aiguide.substack.com/p/on-evaluat...
On Evaluating Cognitive Capabilities in Machines (and Other "Alien" Intelligences)
(Apologies for the length of this post, which means it gets cut off in the email version.
aiguide.substack.com
January 18, 2026 at 11:09 AM
Absolutely fantastic piece. Mitchell is an all too rare voice of reason in the discourse around the intelligence of LLMs and other ML models
Reposted by Phil Swatton
It is central to the process of far-right normalization that, as these parties grow, they are able to attract more politicians with political experience and skill—often at the expense of mainstream right parties.
January 16, 2026 at 11:58 AM
It is central to the process of far-right normalization that, as these parties grow, they are able to attract more politicians with political experience and skill—often at the expense of mainstream right parties.
Looking forward to the @williamcb.bsky.social take on this:
publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld5901/ld...
publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld5901/ld...
January 16, 2026 at 11:10 AM
Looking forward to the @williamcb.bsky.social take on this:
publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld5901/ld...
publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld5901/ld...
In the Anatomy of Fascism, Paxton highlights the fact that fascist regimes were essentially uneasy Alliances between fascists and traditional conservative elites. This often resulted in tension between the leadership and party.
RR not necessarily fascist etc etc
RR not necessarily fascist etc etc
One of the widely ignored consequences of the stamped of former Conservatives to Reform is that a lot of people who were anticipating being players in a Reform government are going to find themselves cast aside as the likes of Zahawi and Jenrick are parachuted into leading roles.
January 15, 2026 at 3:58 PM
In the Anatomy of Fascism, Paxton highlights the fact that fascist regimes were essentially uneasy Alliances between fascists and traditional conservative elites. This often resulted in tension between the leadership and party.
RR not necessarily fascist etc etc
RR not necessarily fascist etc etc
I think I'm surprised by Jenrick's plan to defect, in that:
a) I'd assumed Jenrick's game plan was to wait till May and challenge for the leadership
b) I can't imagine Jenrick being content with playing second fiddle to Nigel
c) Reform's ascendancy is not nearly as guaranteed as it currently looks
a) I'd assumed Jenrick's game plan was to wait till May and challenge for the leadership
b) I can't imagine Jenrick being content with playing second fiddle to Nigel
c) Reform's ascendancy is not nearly as guaranteed as it currently looks
BREAKING Kemi Badenoch has sacked Robert Jenrick from the shadow cabinet, removed the whip and suspended his party membership.
She says she was "presented with clear, irrefutable evidence that he was plotting in secret to defect" to Reform
She says she was "presented with clear, irrefutable evidence that he was plotting in secret to defect" to Reform
January 15, 2026 at 2:16 PM
I think I'm surprised by Jenrick's plan to defect, in that:
a) I'd assumed Jenrick's game plan was to wait till May and challenge for the leadership
b) I can't imagine Jenrick being content with playing second fiddle to Nigel
c) Reform's ascendancy is not nearly as guaranteed as it currently looks
a) I'd assumed Jenrick's game plan was to wait till May and challenge for the leadership
b) I can't imagine Jenrick being content with playing second fiddle to Nigel
c) Reform's ascendancy is not nearly as guaranteed as it currently looks
From Robert Paxton's 'Anatomy of Fascism': 'Fascists are close to power when conservatives begin to borrow their techniques, appeal to their "mobilising passions", and try to co-opt the fascist following.'
January 13, 2026 at 7:20 AM
From Robert Paxton's 'Anatomy of Fascism': 'Fascists are close to power when conservatives begin to borrow their techniques, appeal to their "mobilising passions", and try to co-opt the fascist following.'
Would be interesting to see non-coalition govts included in this.
Which potential coalitions have the most support from Britons?
LD + Lab, Davey PM: 36% support
Lab + Grn, Starmer PM: 33%
Lab + LD, Starmer PM: 31%
Grn + Lab, Polanski PM: 30%
Ref + Con, Farage PM: 29%
LD + Con, Davey PM: 26%
Con + Ref, Badenoch PM: 25%
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
LD + Lab, Davey PM: 36% support
Lab + Grn, Starmer PM: 33%
Lab + LD, Starmer PM: 31%
Grn + Lab, Polanski PM: 30%
Ref + Con, Farage PM: 29%
LD + Con, Davey PM: 26%
Con + Ref, Badenoch PM: 25%
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
January 8, 2026 at 10:46 AM
Would be interesting to see non-coalition govts included in this.
I think this is true, but to a point - algorithms are designed, and different design decisions are available.
Not particularly apropos of anything but:
At some point we are gonna have to face up to the fact we’ve spent most of the last decade blaming “the algorithm” for stuff that’s mostly just human nature and culture.
At some point we are gonna have to face up to the fact we’ve spent most of the last decade blaming “the algorithm” for stuff that’s mostly just human nature and culture.
January 7, 2026 at 3:19 PM
I think this is true, but to a point - algorithms are designed, and different design decisions are available.
Reposted by Phil Swatton
We had a good run
2026 could be great. We simply don't know.
January 3, 2026 at 4:08 PM
We had a good run
Reposted by Phil Swatton
A lot of talk about Overton windows after one of the worst years for out-and-out racism & hate in politics that I personally remember - but accusations of racism by Rfm candidates last year was met with withdrawal and blaming "bad vetting".
They are far more willing to back racist candidates now.
They are far more willing to back racist candidates now.
December 23, 2025 at 9:45 AM
A lot of talk about Overton windows after one of the worst years for out-and-out racism & hate in politics that I personally remember - but accusations of racism by Rfm candidates last year was met with withdrawal and blaming "bad vetting".
They are far more willing to back racist candidates now.
They are far more willing to back racist candidates now.
Reposted by Phil Swatton
🚨 Excited that "Making Bribery Profitable Again? The Market Effects of Suspending Accountability for Overseas Bribery" by Eddy Malesky, Lucio Picci, and me has been published in FirstView at @iojournal.bsky.social!
Open Access: doi.org/10.1017/S002... 1/n
Open Access: doi.org/10.1017/S002... 1/n
Making Bribery Profitable Again? The Market Effects of Suspending Accountability for Overseas Bribery | International Organization | Cambridge Core
Making Bribery Profitable Again? The Market Effects of Suspending Accountability for Overseas Bribery
doi.org
December 10, 2025 at 11:10 AM
🚨 Excited that "Making Bribery Profitable Again? The Market Effects of Suspending Accountability for Overseas Bribery" by Eddy Malesky, Lucio Picci, and me has been published in FirstView at @iojournal.bsky.social!
Open Access: doi.org/10.1017/S002... 1/n
Open Access: doi.org/10.1017/S002... 1/n
In case anyone else is doing #adventofcode in R this year, I've been putting my solutions in this repo: github.com/alan-turing-...
GitHub - alan-turing-institute/advent-of-code-2025: Advent of Code 2025
Advent of Code 2025. Contribute to alan-turing-institute/advent-of-code-2025 development by creating an account on GitHub.
github.com
December 10, 2025 at 12:10 PM
In case anyone else is doing #adventofcode in R this year, I've been putting my solutions in this repo: github.com/alan-turing-...
Reposted by Phil Swatton
Holy shit.
Reuters reporting that new admin instructions on visas are if you worked at a platform in trust & safety or content moderation or on fact checking or online safety at an platform you *and your loved ones* are ineligible for H-1B visa.
www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...
Reuters reporting that new admin instructions on visas are if you worked at a platform in trust & safety or content moderation or on fact checking or online safety at an platform you *and your loved ones* are ineligible for H-1B visa.
www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...
December 4, 2025 at 5:41 PM
Holy shit.
Reuters reporting that new admin instructions on visas are if you worked at a platform in trust & safety or content moderation or on fact checking or online safety at an platform you *and your loved ones* are ineligible for H-1B visa.
www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...
Reuters reporting that new admin instructions on visas are if you worked at a platform in trust & safety or content moderation or on fact checking or online safety at an platform you *and your loved ones* are ineligible for H-1B visa.
www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...