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Reposted by Phil Swatton

Colm Murphy @colmpm.bsky.social · 14h

One of my issues with Politico is that its jaunty, gossipy tone jars with the dangerous turn in UK politics.

A "mostly clanger free conference"? A recording of the Shadow Justice Secretary complaining about seeing "no white faces" surfaced and was the talking point in interviews and coverage...

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Phil Swatton @philswatton.bsky.social · 3d

Just caught up on this fantastic essay by @sundersays.bsky.social in @renewaljournal.bsky.social. Brilliant, punchy, to the point on Labour's lack of serious engagement with multiculturalism, and a much-welcome rebuttal to those who advocate for Labour to accommodate Reform's radical right populism.

Renewal @renewaljournal.bsky.social · 9d

"In the twenty-first century, the success of social democracy depends on narrowing differences between groups"

@sundersays.bsky.social responds to the anonymous essay that @patrickmaguire.bsky.social has reported is being shared around by Labour MPs

False prophecies

What did you manage to read on your summer holidays? I found myself in the early phases of the 14 volume CP Snow Strangers and Brothers series – covering 20th century Britain from the first world war ...

renewal.org.uk

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Phil Swatton @philswatton.bsky.social · 5d

I wrote a slightly longer response to the NS piece on my substack. You can read it here: dysfunctionalprogramming.substack.com/p/some-comme...

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Phil Swatton @philswatton.bsky.social · 6d

But more importantly, the piece entirely ignores the idea that politicians can shape, not just respond to, public opinion.

Phil Swatton @philswatton.bsky.social · 6d

Of course, the piece is also badly wrong in its assumptions. The median voter is not a Nigel Farage fan, and the evidence suggests that the median voter does not support abolishing indefinite leave to remain.

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Phil Swatton @philswatton.bsky.social · 6d

The thing I most hate about this kind of reasoning is that it regards the question of whether or not Farage is a racist as unimportant or incidental. All that matters is what an imagined median voter likes right now. Politics as anything other than triangulation regarded as a misstep.

The New Statesman @handle.invalid · 7d

Crying racism only hurts Labour

Activists like it, but the median voter will feel attacked.

📊 @bwalker.uk

Crying racism only hurts Labour

Activists like it, but the median voter will feel attacked.

www.newstatesman.com

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Reposted by Phil Swatton

Dr Sarah @drsezzer.bsky.social · 7d

Short article covering the psychometrics and LLMs work we published a few months back. Hopefully, more readable (i.e. less maths!) :)

@philswatton.bsky.social

cetas.turing.ac.uk/publications...

Patterns, Not People: Personality Structures in LLM-powered Persona Agents

Expert Analysis

cetas.turing.ac.uk

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Phil Swatton @philswatton.bsky.social · 7d

Glad to see it out :)

Reposted by Phil Swatton

Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 13d

Quite. So many Labour people on this website visibly have no idea of just how bad things have got for ethnic minorities since they came on, and how their visible indifference lands.

Amrk @amrk.bsky.social · 13d

Also frankly I am quite desperate! A party that’s at best ambivalent on the question of whether I’m English and wants to deport my friends is 9 points ahead in the polls and the current leader is floundering and visibly out of his depth!

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Phil Swatton @philswatton.bsky.social · 25d

Thank you!

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Phil Swatton @philswatton.bsky.social · 26d

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Phil Swatton @philswatton.bsky.social · 28d

That's very pleasing to hear - I don't think I could hope for more than for it be worth sharing and to persuade a few people!

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Reposted by Phil Swatton

Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 28d

Brilliantly lucid piece from Phil - well worth a read.

Phil Swatton @philswatton.bsky.social · Sep 8

New piece by me. I wrote about what the political methodology literature tells us about the uses and abuses of surveys, why a polling-first political strategy is a mistake, and why a clear set of values and a clear political vision is essential for reconciling contradictory pressures on policy.

Renewal @renewaljournal.bsky.social · Sep 8

"public opinion should only be one consideration among many in policymaking and party strategy, and never the prime mover of politics."

@philswatton.bsky.social on the pitfalls of poll-driven politics and the importance of political leadership.
renewal.org.uk/blog/public-...

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Phil Swatton @philswatton.bsky.social · 28d

Thank you!

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Phil Swatton @philswatton.bsky.social · Sep 8

I think, in summary, that the problem of how survey data and quantitative methods should be used in political strategy is an important issue for social democrats and progressives. I hope that I've made a useful contribution in this piece, and I'm grateful to Renewal for editing and publishing it.

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Phil Swatton @philswatton.bsky.social · Sep 8

I've previously written on this theme on my substack:

dysfunctionalprogramming.substack.com/p/measuremen...

dysfunctionalprogramming.substack.com/p/on-the-imm...

For me, this is a good example of how quantitative methods enable us to identify strategic mistakes in electoral strategy.

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Phil Swatton @philswatton.bsky.social · Sep 8

I also argue in this piece that Labour's current strategy of accommodating Reform on immigration is unlikely to be effective. This excellent preprint was released on Friday, adding to the pile of available evidence on this point:
bsky.app/profile/turn...

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · Sep 5

Radical right accommodation really does not work.

New paper out with this exceptionally talented team
@katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk

doi.org/10.31235/osf...

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Phil Swatton @philswatton.bsky.social · Sep 8

I diverge from some of the stronger critiques in that I think the use of surveys, statistics, data science, etc is essential for effective strategy. The problem in my view is the timidity of political strategies that over-rely on triangulation, rather than being rooted in a clear set of values.

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Phil Swatton @philswatton.bsky.social · Sep 8

Or, also in @renewaljournal.bsky.social, @demofuturist.bsky.social's piece picks up on related themes, as energetically highlighted by @whstancil.bsky.social here: bsky.app/profile/whst...

Will Stancil @whstancil.bsky.social · Aug 23

YES YES YES, FINALLY PEOPLE ARE GETTING IT. A hardcore, energized base wins over people in the middle. Read this entire article. This is why liberals have been losing: they've been listening to quants who obsess over median voter opinion and ignore social dynamics. renewal.org.uk/blog/why-lab...

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Phil Swatton @philswatton.bsky.social · Sep 8

Others have recently written on related themes, although diverging to a lesser or greater extent from my views on the usefulness of polling, e.g. in the US setting @lioneltrolling.bsky.social and @ericlevitz.bsky.social:

www.unpopularfront.news/p/against-po...
www.vox.com/politics/458...

Against Polling

It's 90% Bullshit

www.unpopularfront.news

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Phil Swatton @philswatton.bsky.social · Sep 8

New piece by me. I wrote about what the political methodology literature tells us about the uses and abuses of surveys, why a polling-first political strategy is a mistake, and why a clear set of values and a clear political vision is essential for reconciling contradictory pressures on policy.

Renewal @renewaljournal.bsky.social · Sep 8

"public opinion should only be one consideration among many in policymaking and party strategy, and never the prime mover of politics."

@philswatton.bsky.social on the pitfalls of poll-driven politics and the importance of political leadership.
renewal.org.uk/blog/public-...

Public Opinion and the Survey Response

Political scientists know that survey responses cannot be taken at face value. For most respondents, most of the time, responses are not the product of deeply held, pre-existing, coherent views on par...

renewal.org.uk

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Phil Swatton @philswatton.bsky.social · Sep 7

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Phil Swatton @philswatton.bsky.social · Sep 5

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Phil Swatton @philswatton.bsky.social · Sep 4

It's good to see these MPs continuing to stand up for the role of deliberation in democracy and for the scrutinising role of parliament. If Farage does become PM in the future, a concentration of power in the executive will prove a catastrophe.

Alan White @aljwhite.bsky.social · Sep 3

Suspended Labour MPs write for us. Feisty: www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...

If we want a healthy democracy, Labour should not be suspending MPs like us

Westminster debates often extol the virtues of our democracy. But if democracy is reduced to a single moment – a general election every five years ...

www.politicshome.com

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Phil Swatton @philswatton.bsky.social · Aug 21

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