Rob Ford
@robfordmancs.bsky.social
Politics Professor, University of Manchester.
Author of "The British General Election of 2024", "The British General Election of 2019" & "Brexitland"
My Substack, "The Swingometer", is here: https://swingometer.substack.com/
https://www.robertford.net/
Author of "The British General Election of 2024", "The British General Election of 2019" & "Brexitland"
My Substack, "The Swingometer", is here: https://swingometer.substack.com/
https://www.robertford.net/
Pinned
Rob Ford
@robfordmancs.bsky.social
· Jul 29
I have some good news for election nerds - "The British General Election of 2024" will be out this autumn, and if you're quick you can grab a 25% pre-order discount from Waterstone's by ordering your copy by 31st July, just enter code SUMMER25 www.waterstones.com/book/the-bri...
Every "X will be unpopular" take which does not compare X with the other options available should be stuck in a bin.
Raising big taxes is unpopular. Not raising them means starving public services. Remind me how many years of starving public services worked out for the incumbent in May last year.
Raising big taxes is unpopular. Not raising them means starving public services. Remind me how many years of starving public services worked out for the incumbent in May last year.
Just seen another 'but you don't get it! Raising income tax would be unpopular!' It certainly would.
I just am asking anyone who posts that to look at the currently planning departmental spending allocations going into 2028-9 and to explain why they think the *current* plans will be popular:
I just am asking anyone who posts that to look at the currently planning departmental spending allocations going into 2028-9 and to explain why they think the *current* plans will be popular:
Spending Review 2025 (HTML)
www.gov.uk
November 24, 2025 at 1:41 PM
Every "X will be unpopular" take which does not compare X with the other options available should be stuck in a bin.
Raising big taxes is unpopular. Not raising them means starving public services. Remind me how many years of starving public services worked out for the incumbent in May last year.
Raising big taxes is unpopular. Not raising them means starving public services. Remind me how many years of starving public services worked out for the incumbent in May last year.
Reposted by Rob Ford
When you go around talking to people, it is screamingly obvious that the decision tree is:
1) Are you feeling economically insecure and hit by the cost of living?
2) If 'y', how do you feel about immigration
3) If you answer 'positive', please tick the box marked 'Zack Polanski'.
1) Are you feeling economically insecure and hit by the cost of living?
2) If 'y', how do you feel about immigration
3) If you answer 'positive', please tick the box marked 'Zack Polanski'.
Economic Insecurity is foundational for Labour’s electoral losses, and key to any potential recovery - Nuffield Politics Research Centre
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk
November 24, 2025 at 1:12 PM
When you go around talking to people, it is screamingly obvious that the decision tree is:
1) Are you feeling economically insecure and hit by the cost of living?
2) If 'y', how do you feel about immigration
3) If you answer 'positive', please tick the box marked 'Zack Polanski'.
1) Are you feeling economically insecure and hit by the cost of living?
2) If 'y', how do you feel about immigration
3) If you answer 'positive', please tick the box marked 'Zack Polanski'.
Reposted by Rob Ford
NEW! How should Labour respond to the two key issues to voters of the economy and immigration and what are the electoral stakes this week of the budget?
Read on for our answer...
@nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social
Read on for our answer...
@nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social
November 24, 2025 at 11:02 AM
NEW! How should Labour respond to the two key issues to voters of the economy and immigration and what are the electoral stakes this week of the budget?
Read on for our answer...
@nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social
Read on for our answer...
@nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social
Reposted by Rob Ford
Sorry to keep banging on about it but it's literally *they are on Twitter and think it's the majority view*
This is pretty striking and makes me wonder exactly what Labour have been up to in making policy seemingly in response to / fear of the former rather than the middle group.
Why do people think England flags have been raised on lampposts?
White adults
National pride: 26%
Anti-migrant/minority sentiment: 49%
Both: 19%
Ethnic minority adults
National pride: 15%
Anti-migrant/minority sentiment: 55%
Both: 20%
yougov.co.uk/society/arti...
White adults
National pride: 26%
Anti-migrant/minority sentiment: 49%
Both: 19%
Ethnic minority adults
National pride: 15%
Anti-migrant/minority sentiment: 55%
Both: 20%
yougov.co.uk/society/arti...
November 22, 2025 at 8:07 PM
Sorry to keep banging on about it but it's literally *they are on Twitter and think it's the majority view*
Reposted by Rob Ford
This is pretty striking and makes me wonder exactly what Labour have been up to in making policy seemingly in response to / fear of the former rather than the middle group.
Why do people think England flags have been raised on lampposts?
White adults
National pride: 26%
Anti-migrant/minority sentiment: 49%
Both: 19%
Ethnic minority adults
National pride: 15%
Anti-migrant/minority sentiment: 55%
Both: 20%
yougov.co.uk/society/arti...
White adults
National pride: 26%
Anti-migrant/minority sentiment: 49%
Both: 19%
Ethnic minority adults
National pride: 15%
Anti-migrant/minority sentiment: 55%
Both: 20%
yougov.co.uk/society/arti...
November 22, 2025 at 8:01 PM
This is pretty striking and makes me wonder exactly what Labour have been up to in making policy seemingly in response to / fear of the former rather than the middle group.
Reposted by Rob Ford
It's good, not bad, that one senior politician is talking to another about ideas and policy, not treating everything like it is just one big exercise in election strategy.
Pretty predictable that the generation of Centrist politicians that underestimated Farage's populist gut appeal from the Right will also underestimate Polanski's populist gut appeal from the Left
November 23, 2025 at 10:08 PM
It's good, not bad, that one senior politician is talking to another about ideas and policy, not treating everything like it is just one big exercise in election strategy.
Reposted by Rob Ford
Reposted by Rob Ford
This is very good. Reeves needs to set out her views both on the strategic purpose of the tax system (and the role of the state) as part of a plan to deliver fiscal consolidation. That requires both more political and communications skills than she’s displayed thus far. But we can live in hope.
Here’s this week’s column, in which I beg the chancellor to go big this week - on both headroom and narrative - so that by next year, if she’s still here to deliver it, the budget will be boring, because we all know the plan 🙏🏻
www.theguardian.com/business/202...
www.theguardian.com/business/202...
Rachel Reeves, please, let’s make budgets boring again | Heather Stewart
Budgets need to be reassuringly dull with no repeat of this year’s long, drawn-out and chaotic buildup
www.theguardian.com
November 23, 2025 at 4:08 PM
This is very good. Reeves needs to set out her views both on the strategic purpose of the tax system (and the role of the state) as part of a plan to deliver fiscal consolidation. That requires both more political and communications skills than she’s displayed thus far. But we can live in hope.
Reposted by Rob Ford
Cas Mudde spells out what has become largely the consensus among researchers: moving right on immigration will not weaken the far right nor strengthen social democracy. If your reaction is "but in Denmark" please at least familiarize yourself with Danish politics
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
The ‘Danish model’ is the darling of centre-left parties like Labour. The problem is, it doesn’t even work in Denmark | Cas Mudde
This week’s local elections are the latest reminder that when social democrats move rightwards, they’re making a mistake, says academic and author Cas Mudde
www.theguardian.com
November 22, 2025 at 11:44 AM
Cas Mudde spells out what has become largely the consensus among researchers: moving right on immigration will not weaken the far right nor strengthen social democracy. If your reaction is "but in Denmark" please at least familiarize yourself with Danish politics
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Hmmm - so tacking hard right on immigration led the Danish equivalent of Labour to lose the capital city for the first time in a century to a “Green-Left” party?
And all the seats on London’s borough councils are up next May? Including the progressive packed ones held by Labour for generations?
And all the seats on London’s borough councils are up next May? Including the progressive packed ones held by Labour for generations?
November 22, 2025 at 11:46 AM
Hmmm - so tacking hard right on immigration led the Danish equivalent of Labour to lose the capital city for the first time in a century to a “Green-Left” party?
And all the seats on London’s borough councils are up next May? Including the progressive packed ones held by Labour for generations?
And all the seats on London’s borough councils are up next May? Including the progressive packed ones held by Labour for generations?
Reposted by Rob Ford
Reposted by Rob Ford
For just over a week, it looked as though the Chancellor was going to face down the '50 year taboo' on raising the basic rate of income tax. But no longer.
Thoughts on where it came from & why it might still have to go in the Weekend Essay @newstatesman1913.bsky.social
tinyurl.com/Reeves-is-tr...
Thoughts on where it came from & why it might still have to go in the Weekend Essay @newstatesman1913.bsky.social
tinyurl.com/Reeves-is-tr...
Rachel Reeves is trapped by history
Like every chancellor since the Thatcher era, Reeves is refusing to look the public in the eye
tinyurl.com
November 22, 2025 at 11:35 AM
For just over a week, it looked as though the Chancellor was going to face down the '50 year taboo' on raising the basic rate of income tax. But no longer.
Thoughts on where it came from & why it might still have to go in the Weekend Essay @newstatesman1913.bsky.social
tinyurl.com/Reeves-is-tr...
Thoughts on where it came from & why it might still have to go in the Weekend Essay @newstatesman1913.bsky.social
tinyurl.com/Reeves-is-tr...
Reposted by Rob Ford
Britain has set a new wind generation record.
"At 7:30pm on 11 November wind turbines...provided enough clean electricity to power more than 22 million homes"
"Wind was delivering 43.6% of all power on the system which means three quarters of Britain’s homes were effectively running on wind alone"
"At 7:30pm on 11 November wind turbines...provided enough clean electricity to power more than 22 million homes"
"Wind was delivering 43.6% of all power on the system which means three quarters of Britain’s homes were effectively running on wind alone"
Windpower sets new record for baseload - Energy Live News
Wind supplied 43% of all power last week setting a new record of 22.7 GW
www.energylivenews.com
November 21, 2025 at 9:59 PM
Britain has set a new wind generation record.
"At 7:30pm on 11 November wind turbines...provided enough clean electricity to power more than 22 million homes"
"Wind was delivering 43.6% of all power on the system which means three quarters of Britain’s homes were effectively running on wind alone"
"At 7:30pm on 11 November wind turbines...provided enough clean electricity to power more than 22 million homes"
"Wind was delivering 43.6% of all power on the system which means three quarters of Britain’s homes were effectively running on wind alone"
Reposted by Rob Ford
"Meta internally projected late last year that it would earn about 10 per cent of its overall annual revenue — or $16bn — from running advertising for scams and banned goods, internal company documents show" - Reuters www.ft.com/content/4560...
We have to be able to hold tech platforms accountable for fraud
Algorithms ensure that people who click on scams are likely to see more of them
www.ft.com
November 22, 2025 at 10:50 AM
"Meta internally projected late last year that it would earn about 10 per cent of its overall annual revenue — or $16bn — from running advertising for scams and banned goods, internal company documents show" - Reuters www.ft.com/content/4560...
Very sustainable model!
"Meta internally projected late last year that it would earn about 10 per cent of its overall annual revenue — or $16bn — from running advertising for scams and banned goods, internal company documents show" - Reuters www.ft.com/content/4560...
We have to be able to hold tech platforms accountable for fraud
Algorithms ensure that people who click on scams are likely to see more of them
www.ft.com
November 22, 2025 at 11:05 AM
Very sustainable model!
Reposted by Rob Ford
What is Reform-curious voters' biggest hesitation?
The party's lack of governing experience
That's according to new @thinksinsight.bsky.social research shared exclusively with PolHome this weekend
Reform as a "risk" to the country, and a single-issue party (immigration), are also concerns
The party's lack of governing experience
That's according to new @thinksinsight.bsky.social research shared exclusively with PolHome this weekend
Reform as a "risk" to the country, and a single-issue party (immigration), are also concerns
Reform Curious Voters Worry That The Party Lacks Experience
Voters who are thinking about backing Reform UK at the next general election are concerned that the party lacks experience of government.
www.politicshome.com
November 22, 2025 at 9:17 AM
What is Reform-curious voters' biggest hesitation?
The party's lack of governing experience
That's according to new @thinksinsight.bsky.social research shared exclusively with PolHome this weekend
Reform as a "risk" to the country, and a single-issue party (immigration), are also concerns
The party's lack of governing experience
That's according to new @thinksinsight.bsky.social research shared exclusively with PolHome this weekend
Reform as a "risk" to the country, and a single-issue party (immigration), are also concerns
Reposted by Rob Ford
I meant to do a thread on this but got sidetracked. So a couple of thoughts…
I often struggle to come up with tangible examples of English devolution but this is one. Greater Manchester is doing its own £1bn regeneration investment fund
on.ft.com/43InqRk
on.ft.com/43InqRk
Greater Manchester to launch £1bn public investment fund
[FREE TO READ] City region aims to capitalise on sustained economic growth with first fund of its kind
on.ft.com
November 22, 2025 at 9:01 AM
I meant to do a thread on this but got sidetracked. So a couple of thoughts…
Reposted by Rob Ford
i did not have electropope on my bingo card, ngl
He said "Amen" straight into the drop
Lmao Pope Leo threw a rave for an archbishop's 75th birthday this is kind of incredible
Lmao Pope Leo threw a rave for an archbishop's 75th birthday this is kind of incredible
November 21, 2025 at 9:57 PM
i did not have electropope on my bingo card, ngl
Reposted by Rob Ford
Reposted by Rob Ford
@robfordmancs.bsky.social speaking as a private sector comms person working in B2B, I’d say the need to repeat the message hasn’t changed. It’s making the different channels synchronise that’s gotten harder. /1
November 21, 2025 at 4:58 PM
@robfordmancs.bsky.social speaking as a private sector comms person working in B2B, I’d say the need to repeat the message hasn’t changed. It’s making the different channels synchronise that’s gotten harder. /1
Great stuff as ever this from Ben. Does leave me wondering what the implications are for Reform growth - does being so distant from other voters on so many Qs put a ceiling on their support and if so where? Or perhaps there are still enough Tories close enough to their positions to keep growing?
It's Friday afternoon, so who wouldn't want to enter the weekend with one more round of my patented bubble plots of British politics? In this final (one hopes) of my mini-series I look at who the 'odd ones out' of British politics are. Who is 'out of touch' with the rest of the public. Let's see 1/n
November 21, 2025 at 4:54 PM
Great stuff as ever this from Ben. Does leave me wondering what the implications are for Reform growth - does being so distant from other voters on so many Qs put a ceiling on their support and if so where? Or perhaps there are still enough Tories close enough to their positions to keep growing?
Reposted by Rob Ford
Complete and utter tangent for a Friday afternoon: we have a cargo cult cat*, who remembers that the radiators USED to be on, so will sit mournfully beside them in the hope that repeating the behaviour will make them switch on again
*or, as my husband puts it, a "cargo cat"
*or, as my husband puts it, a "cargo cat"
Richard Feynman once wrote about "Cargo Cult Science" - "they follow all the apparent precepts and forms, but they're missing something essential, because the planes don't land." I wonder if we currently have a Cargo Cult model of messaging and media management in British politics
November 21, 2025 at 3:22 PM
Complete and utter tangent for a Friday afternoon: we have a cargo cult cat*, who remembers that the radiators USED to be on, so will sit mournfully beside them in the hope that repeating the behaviour will make them switch on again
*or, as my husband puts it, a "cargo cat"
*or, as my husband puts it, a "cargo cat"
Reposted by Rob Ford
This is very good from Peter - and basically shows how the British Polling Council rules are supposed to work.
kellnerp.substack.com/p/how-whiteh...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/how-whiteh...
How Whitehall suppressed the truth about the doctors strike
The Times was fed a front-page story that misled its readers
kellnerp.substack.com
November 21, 2025 at 11:01 AM
This is very good from Peter - and basically shows how the British Polling Council rules are supposed to work.
kellnerp.substack.com/p/how-whiteh...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/how-whiteh...
Richard Feynman once wrote about "Cargo Cult Science" - "they follow all the apparent precepts and forms, but they're missing something essential, because the planes don't land." I wonder if we currently have a Cargo Cult model of messaging and media management in British politics
November 21, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Richard Feynman once wrote about "Cargo Cult Science" - "they follow all the apparent precepts and forms, but they're missing something essential, because the planes don't land." I wonder if we currently have a Cargo Cult model of messaging and media management in British politics
Reposted by Rob Ford
Macclesfield Central (Cheshire East) Council By-Election Result:
🌍 GRN: 41.8% (+19.7)
🌹 LAB: 28.6% (-25.7)
➡️ RFM: 15.8% (New)
🌳 CON: 9.1% (-4.5)
⚖️ EQU: 2.5% (New)
🔶 LDM: 2.2% (-7.7)
Green GAIN from Labour.
Changes w/ 2023.
🌍 GRN: 41.8% (+19.7)
🌹 LAB: 28.6% (-25.7)
➡️ RFM: 15.8% (New)
🌳 CON: 9.1% (-4.5)
⚖️ EQU: 2.5% (New)
🔶 LDM: 2.2% (-7.7)
Green GAIN from Labour.
Changes w/ 2023.
November 20, 2025 at 11:42 PM
Macclesfield Central (Cheshire East) Council By-Election Result:
🌍 GRN: 41.8% (+19.7)
🌹 LAB: 28.6% (-25.7)
➡️ RFM: 15.8% (New)
🌳 CON: 9.1% (-4.5)
⚖️ EQU: 2.5% (New)
🔶 LDM: 2.2% (-7.7)
Green GAIN from Labour.
Changes w/ 2023.
🌍 GRN: 41.8% (+19.7)
🌹 LAB: 28.6% (-25.7)
➡️ RFM: 15.8% (New)
🌳 CON: 9.1% (-4.5)
⚖️ EQU: 2.5% (New)
🔶 LDM: 2.2% (-7.7)
Green GAIN from Labour.
Changes w/ 2023.