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matterofstats.bsky.social
Tony Corke
@matterofstats.bsky.social
560 followers 360 following 2.4K posts
#rstats, maths, science, quirky stuff, and Aussie Rules football. @matterofstats on Twitter "Your data is not required to follow a well-defined distribution"
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matterofstats.bsky.social
Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 11h
Latest AFLW sims

www.matterofstats.com/aflw-1/2024/10/14/aflw-2025-simulations-after-round-9
AFLW 2025 - Simulations After Round 9 — Matter of Stats
This year’s post Round 9 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below: For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the Gen...
www.matterofstats.com
matterofstats.bsky.social
Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 14h
🤷
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matterofstats.bsky.social
Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 1d
WoSHBODS Results for R9

www.matterofstats.com/aflw-1/2023/9/3/aflw-2025-round-9-results-progression
AFLW 2025 - Round 9 Results - Progression — Matter of Stats
WoSHBODS tipped 7 from 9 winners this week, and the bookmakers 7 also, which took WoSHBODS’ season-long record to 58 from 81 (72%). WoSHBODS also recorded a Margin MAE of 22.4 points per game (compar...
www.matterofstats.com
matterofstats.bsky.social
Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 1d
Lucky or unlucky in FMI AFLW this week
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matterofstats.bsky.social
Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 1d
My “genital area” just triggered the screening device at Sydney Airport. Apparently, had it triggered a second time, I would have been subject to a “secondary pat down”
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matterofstats.bsky.social
Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 2d
After Game 3 of FMI AFLW
matterofstats.bsky.social
Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 2d
After Game 2 of FMI AFLW
matterofstats.bsky.social
Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 2d
After Game 1 of FMI AFLW
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matterofstats.bsky.social
Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 2d
Updated FMI AFLW (correcting the 81-point Tigers forecast)
matterofstats.bsky.social
Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 2d
Presumably there'll be a tariff on the prize
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matterofstats.bsky.social
Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 2d
Before Game 1 of FMI AFLW
matterofstats.bsky.social
Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 3d
Yep
matterofstats.bsky.social
Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 3d
76% of AFLW games this season have been Scorigamis
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matterofstats.bsky.social
Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 3d
Another good week expected for Scorigamis in AFLW
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matterofstats.bsky.social
Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 3d
ICYMI early this morning
matterofstats.bsky.social
Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 4d
A short piece on CLV. Comments welcomed.

www.matterofstats.com/general-probability-and-statis/2025/10/9/do-you-have-closing-line-value
Do You Have Closing Line Value? — Matter of Stats
The adequacy of any decision should never be assessed purely on its outcome, but instead on how well it reflected the information available at the time. In wagering, that means profitability is often ...
www.matterofstats.com
matterofstats.bsky.social
Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 4d
A short piece on CLV. Comments welcomed.

www.matterofstats.com/general-probability-and-statis/2025/10/9/do-you-have-closing-line-value
Do You Have Closing Line Value? — Matter of Stats
The adequacy of any decision should never be assessed purely on its outcome, but instead on how well it reflected the information available at the time. In wagering, that means profitability is often ...
www.matterofstats.com
matterofstats.bsky.social
Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 4d
I recognise that I might be a segment of one, but all this trade talk less than a week out from the men’s Grand Final feels a bit ick to me

I know unconditional loyalty in sport is long dead, but it’d be nice to preserve the illusion through October at least
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matterofstats.bsky.social
Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 5d
Got to base 8.5 in the end since 300 base 8.5 is about 217
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matterofstats.bsky.social
Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 5d
You were clearly just working in base 7.

300 base 7 is 147 base 10.
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matterofstats.bsky.social
Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 5d
Would love to know how they’re defining “best” (Kenneth Arrow says hi) and how previous votes have exposed the flaws in the current system
matterofstats.bsky.social
Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 7d
Post R8 WoSHBODS AFLW sims are up

www.matterofstats.com/aflw-1/2024/10/14/aflw-2025-simulations-after-round-8
AFLW 2025 - Simulations After Round 8 — Matter of Stats
This year’s post Round 8 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below: For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the Gen...
www.matterofstats.com
matterofstats.bsky.social
Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 8d
The North Melbourne AFLW team continue to threaten to break out of the yard
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matterofstats.bsky.social
Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 8d
WoSHBODS' AFLW R8 Results

www.matterofstats.com/aflw-1/2023/9/3/aflw-2025-round-8-results-finally
AFLW 2025 - Round 8 Results - Finally! — Matter of Stats
WoSHBODS tipped 6 from 9 winners this week, and the bookmakers 7, which took WoSHBODS’ season-long record to 51 from 72 (71%). WoSHBODS also recorded a Margin MAE of 20.8 points per game (compared to...
www.matterofstats.com
matterofstats.bsky.social
Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 8d
Lucky or unlucky in FMI AFLW this week?
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matterofstats.bsky.social
Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 8d
What digit appears most often at the end of the victory margin for V/AFL footy?
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