Tony Corke
@matterofstats.bsky.social
#rstats, maths, science, quirky stuff, and Aussie Rules football.
@matterofstats on Twitter
"Your data is not required to follow a well-defined distribution"
@matterofstats on Twitter
"Your data is not required to follow a well-defined distribution"
Never quite worked out what factors did to offend ggplot2
"No, no, it'll be alphabetical order you'll be having .."
"No, no, it'll be alphabetical order you'll be having .."
November 30, 2025 at 1:34 AM
Never quite worked out what factors did to offend ggplot2
"No, no, it'll be alphabetical order you'll be having .."
"No, no, it'll be alphabetical order you'll be having .."
Reposted by Tony Corke
"Confidence in the accuracy of one's forecasts is perversely associated with lower accuracy."
www.nber.org/papers/w34493
www.nber.org/papers/w34493
Forecasting Social Science: Evidence from 100 Projects
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org
November 28, 2025 at 6:29 PM
"Confidence in the accuracy of one's forecasts is perversely associated with lower accuracy."
www.nber.org/papers/w34493
www.nber.org/papers/w34493
Suspect I’ll soon know why this was on special
November 28, 2025 at 9:26 AM
Suspect I’ll soon know why this was on special
Reposted by Tony Corke
"a single person of this demographic may have committed a crime, therefore we must punish the entire demographic" is a policy response you may recognize from fascist governments dedicated to ethnic cleansing elsewhere.
November 27, 2025 at 5:52 AM
"a single person of this demographic may have committed a crime, therefore we must punish the entire demographic" is a policy response you may recognize from fascist governments dedicated to ethnic cleansing elsewhere.
Yet another undercover visitor to the MoS website
November 27, 2025 at 11:28 AM
Yet another undercover visitor to the MoS website
Bliss n. A state of extreme contentment
November 26, 2025 at 11:39 PM
Bliss n. A state of extreme contentment
To my Bayesian friends, how often is model fitting highly dependent on available computing power and the fight for convergence?
November 26, 2025 at 11:26 AM
To my Bayesian friends, how often is model fitting highly dependent on available computing power and the fight for convergence?
Just in case any of you are looking for closure, my ‘lunch’ was finally delivered just after 5pm … to my neighbours’ … and cold
And, of course, we’re still without power
And, of course, we’re still without power
November 26, 2025 at 8:25 AM
Just in case any of you are looking for closure, my ‘lunch’ was finally delivered just after 5pm … to my neighbours’ … and cold
And, of course, we’re still without power
And, of course, we’re still without power
n hindsight, probably not a great idea to order lunch via Menulog on their last day of operation
Been 4 hours since I ordered at restaurant number 1 who, when phoned at 2:15pm said no driver had turned up. Cancelled.
Driver is now allegedly at restaurant number 2
Been 4 hours since I ordered at restaurant number 1 who, when phoned at 2:15pm said no driver had turned up. Cancelled.
Driver is now allegedly at restaurant number 2
November 26, 2025 at 5:16 AM
n hindsight, probably not a great idea to order lunch via Menulog on their last day of operation
Been 4 hours since I ordered at restaurant number 1 who, when phoned at 2:15pm said no driver had turned up. Cancelled.
Driver is now allegedly at restaurant number 2
Been 4 hours since I ordered at restaurant number 1 who, when phoned at 2:15pm said no driver had turned up. Cancelled.
Driver is now allegedly at restaurant number 2
New addition to the front lawn
November 26, 2025 at 2:58 AM
New addition to the front lawn
Without power here after a huge storm. Website says 5.5 hours to fix, SMS from Endeavour Energy says 10.5 hours
November 26, 2025 at 2:31 AM
Without power here after a huge storm. Website says 5.5 hours to fix, SMS from Endeavour Energy says 10.5 hours
Reposted by Tony Corke
this is one of my favourite observations about sample size calculations. (afaik first articulated by Miettinen in 1985)
November 25, 2025 at 10:56 AM
this is one of my favourite observations about sample size calculations. (afaik first articulated by Miettinen in 1985)
Reposted by Tony Corke
I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture.
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
November 25, 2025 at 9:26 AM
I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture.
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
Reposted by Tony Corke
Beautiful UK rainfall map
(elevation and wind direction play a big role)
(By Alasdair Rae @@undertheraedar)
www.linkedin.com/posts/alasda...
(elevation and wind direction play a big role)
(By Alasdair Rae @@undertheraedar)
www.linkedin.com/posts/alasda...
November 24, 2025 at 12:45 PM
Beautiful UK rainfall map
(elevation and wind direction play a big role)
(By Alasdair Rae @@undertheraedar)
www.linkedin.com/posts/alasda...
(elevation and wind direction play a big role)
(By Alasdair Rae @@undertheraedar)
www.linkedin.com/posts/alasda...
Does Chase performance vary with age?
www.matterofstats.com/general-probability-and-statis/2025/11/24/age-gender-and-performance-on-the-uk-chase
www.matterofstats.com/general-probability-and-statis/2025/11/24/age-gender-and-performance-on-the-uk-chase
Age, Gender and Performance on the UK Chase — Matter of Stats
In the most recent blog post here , we analysed the performance of contestants on the UK Chase based on inferring their gender from their first names. It turns out that the incredibly diligent websi...
www.matterofstats.com
November 24, 2025 at 7:56 AM
Does Chase performance vary with age?
www.matterofstats.com/general-probability-and-statis/2025/11/24/age-gender-and-performance-on-the-uk-chase
www.matterofstats.com/general-probability-and-statis/2025/11/24/age-gender-and-performance-on-the-uk-chase
WoSHBODS' AFLW Results for the Prelims
www.matterofstats.com/aflw-1/2023/9/3/aflw-2025-round-15-results-regression-free
www.matterofstats.com/aflw-1/2023/9/3/aflw-2025-round-15-results-regression-free
AFLW 2025 - Round 15 Results - Regression Free — Matter of Stats
WoSHBODS and the two bookmakers tipped both winners this week. WoSHBODS also recorded a Margin MAE of 16.2 points per game (compared to 21 and 20.6 for the bookmakers) and a Totals MAE of just 3.3 po...
www.matterofstats.com
November 22, 2025 at 11:56 AM
WoSHBODS' AFLW Results for the Prelims
www.matterofstats.com/aflw-1/2023/9/3/aflw-2025-round-15-results-regression-free
www.matterofstats.com/aflw-1/2023/9/3/aflw-2025-round-15-results-regression-free
Reposted by Tony Corke
Time (mm:ss) NTH has spent trailing in #AFLW season 2025
57:55 in the PF vs MELB
55:05 for the other 13 games combined
@NMFCWomens #AFLWFinals #AFLWRoosDees
57:55 in the PF vs MELB
55:05 for the other 13 games combined
@NMFCWomens #AFLWFinals #AFLWRoosDees
November 22, 2025 at 6:12 AM
Time (mm:ss) NTH has spent trailing in #AFLW season 2025
57:55 in the PF vs MELB
55:05 for the other 13 games combined
@NMFCWomens #AFLWFinals #AFLWRoosDees
57:55 in the PF vs MELB
55:05 for the other 13 games combined
@NMFCWomens #AFLWFinals #AFLWRoosDees
ICYMI late last night
It's taken way too long to write, but here's MoSHBODS' views on schedule strength for the men's 2026 AFL season
www.matterofstats.com/mafl-stats-journal/an-analysis-of-strength-of-schedule-for-the-2026-fixture
www.matterofstats.com/mafl-stats-journal/an-analysis-of-strength-of-schedule-for-the-2026-fixture
An Analysis of Strength of Schedule for the Men's 2026 AFL Season — Matter of Stats
The men’s AFL fixture for 2026 was released this last* week and, as is tradition, we’ll analyse it to see which teams we think have done better or worse than others. In particular, we’ll look for a...
www.matterofstats.com
November 21, 2025 at 3:23 AM
ICYMI late last night
It's taken way too long to write, but here's MoSHBODS' views on schedule strength for the men's 2026 AFL season
www.matterofstats.com/mafl-stats-journal/an-analysis-of-strength-of-schedule-for-the-2026-fixture
www.matterofstats.com/mafl-stats-journal/an-analysis-of-strength-of-schedule-for-the-2026-fixture
An Analysis of Strength of Schedule for the Men's 2026 AFL Season — Matter of Stats
The men’s AFL fixture for 2026 was released this last* week and, as is tradition, we’ll analyse it to see which teams we think have done better or worse than others. In particular, we’ll look for a...
www.matterofstats.com
November 20, 2025 at 12:14 PM
It's taken way too long to write, but here's MoSHBODS' views on schedule strength for the men's 2026 AFL season
www.matterofstats.com/mafl-stats-journal/an-analysis-of-strength-of-schedule-for-the-2026-fixture
www.matterofstats.com/mafl-stats-journal/an-analysis-of-strength-of-schedule-for-the-2026-fixture
How else are you going to see the "subluxations"?
November 19, 2025 at 11:05 AM
How else are you going to see the "subluxations"?
Getting in early ...
November 19, 2025 at 10:58 AM
Getting in early ...
R script has been running for 30 hours and is now using 5% of CPU but 95% of Memory (c 20Gb)
Probably memory-bound?
Kill it and rewrite to reduce memory use?
Probably memory-bound?
Kill it and rewrite to reduce memory use?
November 19, 2025 at 12:32 AM
R script has been running for 30 hours and is now using 5% of CPU but 95% of Memory (c 20Gb)
Probably memory-bound?
Kill it and rewrite to reduce memory use?
Probably memory-bound?
Kill it and rewrite to reduce memory use?
Reposted by Tony Corke
Utterly dehumanizing, and thus evil.
The Sun has been told Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood will on Monday propose confiscating jewellery, watches, necklaces from asylum seekers to meet asylum costs
This reflects the most controversial aspect of the Danish scheme - the Jewellery Law. The toughest Labour MPs thought this was OTT
This reflects the most controversial aspect of the Danish scheme - the Jewellery Law. The toughest Labour MPs thought this was OTT
November 17, 2025 at 7:38 AM
Utterly dehumanizing, and thus evil.
Reposted by Tony Corke
Bill Gates and Bjorn Lomborg bear a really substantial chunk of responsibility for supplying this line to every climate-delaying pro-fossil government around the world
Pressed to outline how the LNP will reduce emissions with their new energy plan, Sussan Ley says they’ll rely on “breakthrough technologies” in about “25 years time”😳 - ones not invented yet & “we’re not talking about today”🤔
There you have it. As bonkers as it gets. #auspol
There you have it. As bonkers as it gets. #auspol
November 16, 2025 at 9:09 AM
Bill Gates and Bjorn Lomborg bear a really substantial chunk of responsibility for supplying this line to every climate-delaying pro-fossil government around the world
That’s a hard ‘no’ from me
November 16, 2025 at 8:16 AM
That’s a hard ‘no’ from me