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Mert Kartal

@mertkartal.bsky.social

1.1K followers 360 following 320 posts

* Associate Prof. of Political Science, St. Lawrence University * Transparency International Consultant * Good Authority Fellow * International organization; the EU; good governance, corruption, populism in Europe, and a bit of Turkey * 💛💙Fenerbahçe💛💙

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Mert Kartal @mertkartal.bsky.social · Nov 26

I do believe activism is key to progress. But so is scientific research. Pressuring researchers to adopt activist stances risks their work being dismissed as biased, ultimately hurting activists' cause. Let researchers produce objective policy advice and help activists make the world a better place.

Mert Kartal @mertkartal.bsky.social · 10h

One risk is that any 🇪🇺 member could veto the renewal of sanctions on 🇷🇺 as early as Feb 1. Lifting them after 🇪🇺 has seized Russian assets would cause big legal problems.

🇪🇺 is working to change it so a majority (not unanimity) is needed to renew sanctions. But it will take time. tinyurl.com/5atezk2u

Mert Kartal @mertkartal.bsky.social · 10h

If Varhelyi resigns, the Council could (threaten to) name a replacement and ask an existing Commissioner to take over.

This would leave Hungary without a seat at the Commission.

The EU could use this as leverage over Orbán on key issues like sanctions on Russia and aid to Ukraine. 👀 5/5

Mert Kartal @mertkartal.bsky.social · 10h

Now, new spy allegations will put von der Leyen under more pressure. This time, it won't be just from far-right and far-left but also from mainstream parties.

She might ask Varhelyi to resign. If he refuses, Parliament could respond with a vote of censure against the whole Commission. 4/5

Mert Kartal @mertkartal.bsky.social · 10h

European Commission is accountable to European Parliament. The Parliament cannot fire one Commissioner. But it can vote to dismiss the entire Commission.

Only this week, von der Leyen survived two no-confidence motions from both far-right and far-left parliamentary groups on different issues. 3/5

Mert Kartal @mertkartal.bsky.social · 10h

Alleged spying happened when Oliver Varhelyi was Hungary’s top diplomat to the EU. Reports say he knew intelligence agents were part of his team.

He is now the EU Commissioner for Health and Animal Welfare. Under EU law, his position requires complete independence and impartiality. (TEU Art 17) 2/5

Mert Kartal @mertkartal.bsky.social · 10h

Hungarian #spies reportedly recruited #EU staff (using bribes). The alleged goal was to steal confidential EU info (e.g., details about anti-fraud probes) and send it to #Hungary.

If true, this is a new low, even for Orban. But the consequences for 🇪🇺 (and #Ukraine and #Russia) might be massive. 1/5

EUwatch 🇪🇺 @euwatch.live · 2d

Hungary found to have sent agents to spy on EU — report

Hungary found to have sent agents to spy on EU — report – DW – 10/09/2025

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban secretly sent agents to spy on European Union institutions in Brussels for years, according to a report published by a Belgian newspaper.

Reposted by Mert Kartal

Jacob Öberg @profjacob.bsky.social · 3d

🚨🚨 #Denmark aims to ban #socialmedia for children under 15. PM Mette Frederiksen says "We have unleashed a monster" to Danish lawmakers. 🧵https://www.politico.eu/article/denmark-mette-frederiksen-partially-ban-social-media-children-under-15/

Denmark aims to ban social media for children under 15, PM says

“We have unleashed a monster,” Mette Frederiksen tells Danish lawmakers.

www.politico.eu

Mert Kartal @mertkartal.bsky.social · 3d

Among the four scenarios BBC outlines for France, the most likely to me is snap elections soon, which the far-right would win. Macron may then rely on their failure to govern France to weaken the far-right's presidential bid in 2027.

bbc.com/news/article...

Time may be running out for master of clocks Macron: What next for France?

After eight years in office, Emmanuel Macron's position as president is coming under increasing pressure as France's political crisis escalates.

Mert Kartal @mertkartal.bsky.social · 4d

The traditional 🇫🇷 🇩🇪 alliance that created and has guided 🇪🇺 since then is at stake here.

🇫🇷 under Macron has pressed for a more “strategically autonomous” Europe. If the far-right or the far-left parties in France get what they want, it is a red alarm for 🇪🇺

Taniel @taniel.bsky.social · 5d

Absolute shock in France: Lecornu, who was just appointed prime minister by Macron two weeks ago, announced today that he was resigning.

The country was already in unprecedented territory, but this pushes it to another level; odds of new elections shortly just soared.

Reposted by Mert Kartal

Clément Plaisant @cplaisant.bsky.social · 5d

A must-read interview with Figen Yüksekdağ, imprisoned politician and former co-chair of the pro-Kurdish HDP (now DEM). While she supports the current Kurdish opening, Yüksekdağ criticizes the Turkish government's approach, both in substance and form.
bianet.org/haber/figen-...

Figen Yüksekdağ: CHP’ye baskı, barış sürecini rehin alıyor

“23 yıllık statükoyu değiştirecek güç ortak muhalefettir” diyen Yüksekdağ' göre, hapiste ve nesnel olarak aktif siyasetin dışında olmak, sorumluluk duygusunu ortadan kaldırmıyor.

Reposted by Mert Kartal

Zselyke Csaky @zecsaky.bsky.social · 5d

Here is something on Czechia's elections and the implications for the EU from me:

Centre for European Reform @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social · 5d

#Czechia’s elections mark a populist shift, but Babiš now faces a hard path to form a government. The further he’s pulled to the right, the greater the risk of EU fragmentation.

Quick @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social reaction from @zecsaky.bsky.social

Read here:

CER quick reaction: The Czech elections

Czechia’s elections mark a populist shift, but Babiš faces a hard path to form a government. The further he’s pulled to the right, the greater the risk of EU fragmentation.

Mert Kartal @mertkartal.bsky.social · 7d

I am not an expert in Czech politics by any definition. But it is truly mind-boggling to see “experts” describe Babiš’s ANO as center-left and pro-Ukraine.

Mert Kartal @mertkartal.bsky.social · 7d

I’d expect a right-wing government with a parliamentary minority, likely backed by the far right. Either way, it is one more EU country to worry about when it comes to increasing corruption and rule of law violations.

Mert Kartal @mertkartal.bsky.social · 7d

Bad news for the EU and Ukraine: Czechia has become the third potential veto player against pro-EU and pro-Ukraine initiatives. More so than ever before.

It’s also another reason to be less optimistic about corruption control and the rule of law in Czechia, the wider region and Europe as a whole.

The Associated Press @apnews.com · 7d

BREAKING: Populist Czech billionaire Andrej Babis has won a parliamentary election, marking a political comeback.

Populist billionaire Andrej Babiš wins Czech parliamentary election, official results show

Populist Czech billionaire Andrej Babiš has won a parliamentary election, marking a political comeback.

Mert Kartal @mertkartal.bsky.social · 8d

I really hope the current peace talks in the Middle East do not fall victim to a “spoiling” strategy (violence deliberately timed to erode trust between negotiating parties and derail the process (Kydd & Walter 2006)).

www.belfercenter.org/publication/...

The Strategies of Terrorism

Terrorism uses violence as a form of costly signaling to alter perceptions by demonstrating strength and imposing costs, with strategies including attrition, intimidation, provocation, spoiling, and o...

www.belfercenter.org

Reposted by Mert Kartal

Katie Shoshiashvili @kshoshiashvili.bsky.social · 9d

A new resolution by PACE warns Georgia of an impending "one-party dictatorship incompatible with Council of Europe membership" ahead of the October 4 local elections, with no expectation of any integrity or credibility, @civil.ge

civil.ge/archives/703...

PACE Resolution Warns of Impending “One-Party Dictatorship Incompatible with Council of Europe membership” - Civil Georgia

The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) adopted on October 2 the resolution on Ge

Mert Kartal @mertkartal.bsky.social · 10d

I’d most definitely love to!

Mert Kartal @mertkartal.bsky.social · 10d

😳

Mert Kartal @mertkartal.bsky.social · 10d

Thank you, Howard. I had forgotten about KAAN.

I vaguely recall discussions earlier this year about Turkey planning to pause the F-16 deals and push for F-35s. After the US visit, those calculations may have changed as well. ⬇️

www.middleeasteye.net/news/turkey-...

Turkey may drop US F-16 purchase in favour of acquiring jet engines

Ankara could buy parts instead of new aircraft in bid to accelerate fifth-generation Kaan warplane project

www.middleeasteye.net

Mert Kartal @mertkartal.bsky.social · 10d

Do we now know any better how Erdoğan’s US visit went? Some visibility for Erdoğan (to be used mostly domestically, but diluted by Trump’s “rigged elections” comment) and a Halkbank deal, in return for expensive commitments (US LNG, 200+ Boeings) and no progress on F-35s? Am I missing anything?

Mert Kartal @mertkartal.bsky.social · 12d

And the pro-EU PAS wins the election with a majority of the seats.

Moldovans deserve to be more hopeful about EU membership than ever. (Still, the 2030 target is a little too ambitious.)

www.npr.org/2025/09/29/n...

Moldova's pro-EU party wins clear parliamentary majority, defeating pro-Russian groups

Moldova's pro-Western governing party won a clear parliamentary majority, defeating pro-Russian groups in an election that was widely viewed as a stark choice between East and West.

Mert Kartal @mertkartal.bsky.social · 13d

If the pro-EU PAS wins a majority, 🇲🇩 keeps walking toward 🇪🇺.

If the pro-Russian BEP wins a majority, 🇲🇩 moves closer to 🇷🇺.

Any outcome short of a majority for either one likely leads to some level of political instability and deadlock (depending on the parties’ weight in the parliament).

Frank Elbers @franckelbers.bsky.social · 13d

🇲🇩🗳️ And we are off! Today Moldovans will decide if the ruling PAS (Party for Action and Solidarity) can continue to guide the country towards the EU or whether the opposition "Solidarity Bloc" will break their majority in Parliament. #moldova #alegeriparlamentare2025

Mert Kartal @mertkartal.bsky.social · 14d

It turns out that Turkey needs the approval of the U.S. Congress not only for the F-35s but also for the engines of its fifth-generation aircraft, Kaan.

www.ekonomim.com/amp/gundem/h...

Hakan Fidan CAATSA açılaması: KAAN'ın motorları ABD Kongresi'nin onayını bekliyoruz - Ekonomim

Hakan Fidan KAAN'ın seri üretime geçmesi için CAATSA yaptırımlarının kaldırılmasını beklediklerini belirtti. Cumhurbaşkanı Recep Tayyip Erdoğan'ın ABD Başkanı Donald Trump ile...

www.ekonomim.com

Mert Kartal @mertkartal.bsky.social · 16d

Perhaps, the concessions 🇹🇷 has asked for cannot be easily shared with the public.

We know Erdogan’s top priority is domestic politics. Always! 🇹🇷 might have asked for a green light on that front.

If so, we may soon see domestic moves making life even more difficult for the opposition in 🇹🇷.

Mert Kartal @mertkartal.bsky.social · 16d

Because of classes I was able to catch up on today’s developments just now. From what I see, the 🇺🇸🇹🇷 agreements announced are mostly about 🇹🇷 saying yes to 🇺🇸 demands, despite their considerable costs for 🇹🇷 (e.g. natural gas, nuclear deal, Boeing).

I wonder what 🇹🇷 is actually gaining from 🇺🇸 in return.