Taniel
@taniel.bsky.social
210K followers 370 following 7.4K posts
Daniel Nichanian. Editor in chief of @boltsmag.org (follow us!). Elections, (local) politics, voting rights, criminal justice, and drag race.
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Reposted by Taniel
oregonian.com
Things are happening at Portland's ICE facility tonight.

Read more of our protest coverage here: www.oregonlive.com/crime/2025/1...
Reposted by Taniel
tiny.baby
it's ok to be a nimby about prisons
boltsmag.org
“My NIMBY stance was for my family property in the beginning. Now it’s for my whole state. I say no, we don’t want a prison. We don’t want this mega prison in this state,” says a resident of Franklin County, Arkansas.
The Prison Next Door
How Arkansas’ secretive plan for a new state lockup angered people in a deep red corner of rural America—and changed how some see incarceration.
boltsmag.org
Reposted by Taniel
joshuabhoe.bsky.social
👀
boltsmag.org
“We were so far, and we had done so much work, and we were so hopeful, because it looked good,” says a survivor of domestic violence who was convicted of helping kill her abusive husband. “But the climate right now is for punishment.”
For Third Year, California Kills Bill to Help Incarcerated Domestic Violence Survivors
Advocates in California have pushed for relief for people convicted of harming their abuser, hoping to build on states across the political spectrum that have adopted such reforms.
boltsmag.org
Reposted by Taniel
primaryschool.bsky.social
David Wildstein, the Bridgegate guy who is now our state's leading political blogger, says Sacco is endorsing Ciattarelli tonight. Wildstein is well-sourced and usually right about things like this, and Sacco will be able to deliver some votes for Ciattarelli.
primaryschool.bsky.social
closing this loop: the orbit of North Bergen Democratic boss Nick Sacco is moving towards Republican Jack Ciattarelli at a rapid pace and I'd expect an endorsement from the man himself sooner rather than later
taniel.bsky.social
Note: Mamdani leads by double-digit among Black and Hispanic voters, and by 48 percentage points among Asian respondents. White respondents go 39/37 for Cuomo.
taniel.bsky.social
New Quinnipiac poll of New York City:

Mamdani 46%
Cuomo 33%
Sliwa 15%

(A month ago, it was Mamdani 45%, Cuomo 23%, Sliwa 15%, Adams 12%.)

One obstacle to Cuomo rising much higher: Mamdani's favorability rating is 43/35, but Cuomo's is 37/52.
poll.qu.edu/poll-release...
taniel.bsky.social
There's no RCV in the general election, it's first past the post.
taniel.bsky.social
Of respondents, 41% say they're closest to Mamdani's view on Israel and Palestine, 26% say Cuomo.

Mamdani's strongest issue — by far — is housing. Other issues are pretty close.
taniel.bsky.social
New Quinnipiac poll of New York City:

Mamdani 46%
Cuomo 33%
Sliwa 15%

(A month ago, it was Mamdani 45%, Cuomo 23%, Sliwa 15%, Adams 12%.)

One obstacle to Cuomo rising much higher: Mamdani's favorability rating is 43/35, but Cuomo's is 37/52.
poll.qu.edu/poll-release...
taniel.bsky.social
a very under-the-radar thing happening in Mississippi this fall:
boltsmag.org
A federal appeals court ruled that Mississippi had to redraw its legislative maps. As a result, 14 districts affected by the new boundaries are hosting special elections this November. Democrats may flip several.
Your Cheat Sheet to the 2025 General Elections - Bolts
Four contests have come to largely define the 2025 elections this fall: the elections to lead New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City, plus California’s redistricting measure. But there’s so... Read More
boltsmag.org
taniel.bsky.social
A rare poll of Pennsylvania's supreme court races!

Among likely voters, a new F&M poll finds... a lot of uncertainty, though "yes" to retention is ahead for all 3 Dem justices.

The yes leads the no 39/29, 39/22, and 38/25. But that's a ton of voters who say they don't know for each one.
taniel.bsky.social
I think LR's position has been a pretty steady evolution toward this: Ciotti outright allied in 2024, which felt too fast to them but the outrage was as much about the electoral implications than the fact of making that gesture — and LR already wasn't part of the front republicain last year.
taniel.bsky.social
Interesting poll of Texas finds the GOP with a low-to-mid single-digit lead in any of the 12 configurations of the 2026 Senate race that were tested. And the conventional wisdom of a large difference in how Cornyn and Paxton would perform in November isn't showing up here. www.uh.edu/hobby/txtren...
taniel.bsky.social
Very glad that there's a new place that lists all polls — a big gap since 538's demise. (And one that'd have brought back RCP at the center of things despite all their issues.)
taniel.bsky.social
Robert Badinter, the lawyer and former Socialist Justice Minister who pulled off the abolition of the death penalty in France in 1981, died last year. Today, his body is being moved to the Pantheon — one of the highest honors France can bestow.

www.reuters.com/world/who-is...
Reposted by Taniel
boltsmag.org
The charge of “felony murder” allows defendants to be charged with the death of an accomplice, even when the killing was committed by someone else. Between 2009 and 2017, 83 percent of people charged with felony murder in Alabama were Black.
A Friend’s Death to Mourn, and to Serve Time for
An Alabama teen was shot alongside his friend, then prosecuted for his killing. His case highlights a particularly harsh doctrine in American criminal punishment: felony murder.
boltsmag.org
taniel.bsky.social
Bolts is on top of elections this fall, don't sleep on these:

PENNSYLVANIA supreme court on the line boltsmag.org/pennsylvania...

MAINE may restrict ballot access? boltsmag.org/maine-questi...

GEORGIA has multiple statewide offices up boltsmag.org/georgia-publ...

and a ton more!
taniel.bsky.social
Jack Ciattarelli tonight at the debate: “I’d certainly give the president an A.”
Reposted by Taniel
hcrichardson.bsky.social
People ask what they can do in this moment: here's a crucially important election. There are 52,000 elections taking place next month, many of which will be determined by turnout.
Reposted by Taniel
boltsmag.org
“If we can’t use the citizen-led initiative petition process, we’re done, we’re cooked. We don’t even have the ability to do a petition to get the initiative petition process back,” says the president of the League of Women Voters Missouri.
Under this GOP Measure, All of Missouri’s Recent Popular Initiatives Would Have Failed
Lawmakers just advanced a constitutional amendment to drastically raise the bar for approving citizen ballot measures. Voters get to weigh in on the scheme next year.
boltsmag.org