Theo Landsman
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ordinalandsman.bsky.social
Theo Landsman
@ordinalandsman.bsky.social
150 followers 230 following 450 posts
Senior Political Analyst at YouGov Blue, Political Science PhD candidate , Ranked Ballot Nerd, Map poster.
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Also lots of guys who fit the exact same profile who are citizens, and a system for dealing with these guys that is not only not designed to collect any data on who they actually are, but frequently destroys all their possessions that might produce said data.
You can see very clearly at several points here that the AI model being used has no sense of the game environment as a space, just as a set of 2D images. In a lot of ways this is less sophisticated than even something like Tetris.
Noting here that this wouldn't change the impacts of people underrating income heterogeneity with geographies, if anything it might be further evidence that people underestimate how much anti-poverty measures would help people who are otherwise like them.
Obviously aggregation bias exists, I guess what I'm trying to get at is, if you reversed the puzzle, do low income people in high income census blocks look more like low income people in low income census blocks across other demos or more like high income people.
But what I'm saying is how much is 'class' really more a product of the block/neighborhood/household aggregate rather than individual characteristics? Or put differently is the average low income resident of say, Napa, working class or upper class at a no or low market income life cycle stage?
How much of this is an artifact of 'income' not really proxying for 'class' in the way we would like it to? Like if you went even deeper it's pretty obvious that there is more income variance within households than between households.
This for me is the problem with Klein's comments on abortion moderation in red states. There is exactly one set of social issues where the public is rapidly trending in a problematic direction and on which it is possible to outflank establishment Republicans. And we should definitely not go there.
By the time Michaud made it to the U.S. House he had been a professional politician for 20 years. He continued working at the steel mill because state legislative seats pay terribly and in Maine it seems particularly bad, but he wasn't living a typical working class life either.
This is without even getting into the fact that it is not actually possible to be both a viable candidate for U.S. Senate and a working class person, so by the time people get to this point whether the identity was originally authentic or not it has become a performance.
All the evidence suggests that legitimately working class people are not actually all that good at performing being working class for an audience. What working class people really want to see is a sort of elevated performance of being working class from a high status person.
It's sort of like driving a mom car. Yeah it's a little emasculating for him/other presidents that the Whitehouse is small relative to other presidential buildings in the world, but if you do something about it like build a giant extension or buying a sports car it just looks like your compensating.
This feels sort of like Trump's comments on 9/11 (that the World Trade Center was ugly), there are things (the Whitehouse is architecturally underwhelming) that you aren't supposed to say in public because they strike at the core of the U.S. national myth, but that he can't resist saying anyway.
The National Trust for Historic Preservation warned that President Trump’s planned 90,000-square-foot ballroom would “overwhelm the White House itself,” which spans just 55,000 square feet. https://wapo.st/4hmL8rC
You could imagine a version of ICE that operated like the Guardian Angels, flashy set piece ops, no masks, bright identifiable uniforms, and there are moments where they seem to want to do that, but they overwhelmingly go in a shabbier, more menacing direction.
One of the weirder things about Sliwa is that he is an OG right wing paramilitary operative in ways that Trump is at least in theory trying to emulate with the current iteration of ICE and violent currents within MAGA but neither recognizes any kind of kinship with the other.
have bizarrely gotten a grudging respect for Curtis Sliwa, who is an insane person who talks like one of the Penguin's henchmen
Eh, Danielle Allen did this at Harvard and it seemed like it was mostly a wash but hurt her reputation more than it hurt his. Yarvin is not going to look good here, but he can absolutely create a spectacle that is embarrassing for everyone involved.
It feels like a lot of these people would have or did understand that televised debate is a deeply stilted and vaguely embarrassing performance in 2024. We cannot and should not rehabilitate the concept of televised debates just because a candidate we like is good at them.
More broadly, I think you're making an assumption that people can be inherently talented at televised debate that I think is wrong. Contemporary televised political debates are a deeply stilted and weird piece of performance art. It is more like training to be on reality TV then just being eloquent.
'Trained' is admittedly a bit of a weird word to use in the context of rap, but it is the word that people use for most demanding physical performances including specifically debate. Would it have been weird to say he was a trained debater or trained acrobat?
I think you are missing the point, he was a rapper, he trained to ‘perform’ rap. You could say the same thing about Beto O’Rourke or Martin O’Malley, although rap is probably a more equivalent performance to politics and especially debate.
I mean, for decades even when Republicans were genuinely much more popular among the youth 'young conservatism' was largely a grift to get money out of rich old people. I wonder if what's happened here is that the RW grifting space has become so saturated you genuinely have to believe it now.
You see this particularly with the death penalty where executing an innocent person because the process that led to their conviction was technically correct is actually a much more potent way of sacralizing state violence then executing a guilty person.
Like it's easy to say more children == more money for pensions but in practice it's more like the parents of those children and their pensioner parents (who themselves did a bunch of pro-social child rearing with no incentives) fighting over who are the ultimate pro-social good boys.
Everyone already implicitly believes the tax code should hose wealthy DINKs who rent bougie apartments. The potent distributional question right now is whether the tax code should favor working parents with young children trying to buy a home or their empty nester parents with paid off houses.
My most controversial take on this is probably that while I think reproductive freedom should be sacrosanct, I don’t really have any problem with additional taxes on (high income) childless people. Someone gotta pay into the pensions!
I mean, government shut downs have always been performative, what is happening with Trump just ignoring all the conventions of shutdown procedure is that they are ceasing to be a compelling performance.