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x.com/BarryWhyte85... Big Jim putting as much blue water between himself and the FG campaign as decently possible. (He himself was on the receiving end of this strategy during the last desperate throes of the 2020 FG campaign.)

Barry Whyte on X: "The Justice Minister Jim O’Callaghan has said that when a lawyer takes on a case, it doesn’t mean “they are endorsing the opinions or behaviour of that client”. He also said “I've noticed in recent years from all sides of the political spectrum, criticism being directed at https://t.co/uQTe3Fjfq5" / X

The Justice Minister Jim O’Callaghan has said that when a lawyer takes on a case, it doesn’t mean “they are endorsing the opinions or behaviour of that client”. He also said “I've noticed in recent years from all sides of the political spectrum, criticism being directed at https://t.co/uQTe3Fjfq5

x.com

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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 2d

The quasi-religious Magic Grandma stuff on the far left is equally demented.

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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 2d

They're running the scare tactics playbook *on an issue that is not actually scary* having abandoned better lines of attack. Demented.

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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 2d

Depending on where the Humphreys transfers went. (She would have diluted the Connolly vote mainly through increasing turnout but also through taking some of the anti-government vote.) Would FG gave gone as totally unhinged in those circumstances?

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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 3d

We are well into the "trawling through the slurry pit" phase of the FG campaign - 2020 equivalent was Regina Doherty trying to tie Jim O'Callaghan to Gerry Adams - and it is completely counterproductive as per f****** usual.

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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 3d

Press was reasonably successful (Sunday and evening editions outsold Indo equivalents until the end) but was done in by combination of bad management and toxic industrial relations.

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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 3d

The other lesson is not to let YFG alumni within a million miles of a campaign.

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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 3d

Certainly the bunch who showed up at the Spoil The Vote launch the other day were at best absolute cranks. At worst...

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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 3d

She is (and always was) easily the most "normal" and least Yank-brained of the prominent socons.

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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 3d

Even in 2011 they slipped back noticeably from the final polls to the election result (39/40 to 36) presumably because the voters got nervous about entrusting them with an overall majority.

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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 3d

The last genuinely good campaigns for them were 1981 and November 1982 in the Garret Era. (2011 was absolutely unfuckupable given the external circumstances and 2007 and 1997 were reversions to the mean after exceptional disasters in the previous elections.)

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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 3d

Between this and the Seán Gallagher endorsement earlier we are really being spoiled.

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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 3d

The other question is where the Grealish vote goes in an election where he's not standing - Thomas (Ind Irl) might look like the closest match ideologically but he will be a rival for the seat and not sure how much appeal he'll have east of Lough Corrib.

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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 3d

The "left" vote, broadly defined, has been 35-40% over the last couple of elections - whether Colette Connolly gets passed the torch or not might be important.

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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 3d

Would expect there to be a push to get a Conamara candidate in given that 4/5 elected were city candidates last year (the other being Grealish). Would expect FG to run Seán Kyne - I don't think even MM is daft enough to try imposing Gráinne Seoighe again.

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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 5d

This is only the fourth successive national election campaign that the would-be Malcolm Tuckers of Mount Street have fucked up, after "Keep The Recovery Going" (2016), "The Black and Tans Had Mammies Too" (2020), "The Kanturk Memorandum" (2024). No reason to think it wouldn't work this time round.

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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 5d

Is Madame Geneviève Defarge McNeill at her knitting?

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