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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 4h

Certainly the bunch who showed up at the Spoil The Vote launch the other day were at best absolute cranks. At worst...

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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 4h

She is (and always was) easily the most "normal" and least Yank-brained of the prominent socons.

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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 5h

Even in 2011 they slipped back noticeably from the final polls to the election result (39/40 to 36) presumably because the voters got nervous about entrusting them with an overall majority.

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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 5h

The last genuinely good campaigns for them were 1981 and November 1982 in the Garret Era. (2011 was absolutely unfuckupable given the external circumstances and 2007 and 1997 were reversions to the mean after exceptional disasters in the previous elections.)

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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 5h

Between this and the Seán Gallagher endorsement earlier we are really being spoiled.

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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 8h

The other question is where the Grealish vote goes in an election where he's not standing - Thomas (Ind Irl) might look like the closest match ideologically but he will be a rival for the seat and not sure how much appeal he'll have east of Lough Corrib.

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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 9h

The "left" vote, broadly defined, has been 35-40% over the last couple of elections - whether Colette Connolly gets passed the torch or not might be important.

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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 9h

Would expect there to be a push to get a Conamara candidate in given that 4/5 elected were city candidates last year (the other being Grealish). Would expect FG to run Seán Kyne - I don't think even MM is daft enough to try imposing Gráinne Seoighe again.

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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 2d

This is only the fourth successive national election campaign that the would-be Malcolm Tuckers of Mount Street have fucked up, after "Keep The Recovery Going" (2016), "The Black and Tans Had Mammies Too" (2020), "The Kanturk Memorandum" (2024). No reason to think it wouldn't work this time round.

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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 2d

Is Madame Geneviève Defarge McNeill at her knitting?

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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 2d

The 2011 poll just listed the numbers (out of 1000) going for each candidate so I'm comparing like with like.

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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 2d

(Particularly given that the result now looks like a foregone conclusion.)

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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 2d

Was looking back at 2011 MRBI polls last night and while the number of undecided/non-voters weren't explicitly listed about 80% of the sample expressed a preference vs. 63% now. Would be surprised to see poll much above 40% if even that.

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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 2d

FG is essentially a Nordic Snob Party dislocated a thousand miles or so south-west (I'm sure some would-be intellectual will shoehorn Viking Dublin into this argument).

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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 2d

Also what's left of the Gavin vote by this point is going to be disproportionately hostile to FG and disproportionately "plague on both your houses" wrt the two remaining candidates.

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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 2d

FF's self-image is that it's a party that appeals to everyone and is basically egalitarian, whereas FG's self-image is "not that*.

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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 2d

FG's original sin in this particular fiasco - and this was even before McGuinness had to withdraw - was to publicly announce that they were setting out to obstruct other candidates from getting nominated. Got the public's back up from the beginning.

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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 2d

*whispers quietly* I don't think the budget has helped.

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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 2d

Didn't help but would probably not have been enough to make a difference to the end result.

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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 2d

Are the two facts that - a) FG is full of arrogant dunderheaded snobs, and b) no FG candidate has ever won the personality contest that is an Irish Presidential election - related? I couldn't possibly comment.

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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 2d

Especially given that this is the precise set of circumstances - standing alone in the gap to protect All That Is Good And Decent from the Shinner/Tankie horde - *that FG's Brains Trust set out to engineer* in this election.

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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 3d

bsky.app/profile/padd...

Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 20d

The Very Clever People in Mount Street who pushed for this to be a straight fight between Heather and Connolly by blocking any nominations through the councils may end up getting more than they bargained for.

Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 3d

bsky.app/profile/padd...

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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 3d

Not so much scepticism as knee-jerk hostility.

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Paddy Matthews @paddymatthews.bsky.social · 4d

Presumably the baby is a bit bigger now...

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