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Paul Mainwood @paulmainwood.bsky.social · 13h

(The absurd claim seems to be based on article that estimates something a little more plausible: that 40% of current GDP could be "substantially affected" by AI by 2035).

budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...

The Projected Impact of Generative AI on Future Productivity Growth — Penn Wharton Budget Model

We estimate that AI will increase productivity and GDP by 1.5% by 2035, nearly 3% by 2055, and 3.7% by 2075. AI’s boost to annual productivity growth is strongest in the early 2030s but eventually f...

budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu

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Paul Mainwood @paulmainwood.bsky.social · 14h

No argument there's a bubble but I wouldn't be hanging much on an article that comes out with claims like this:

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Reposted by Paul Mainwood

Sardonicus @sardonicus.eu · 15h

Hertfordshire County Council rules for library use, 1930

RULES FOR PUBLIC LIBRARY
BAN ON LIARS AND DIRTY FACES
Strict rules, which have been approved by the Hertfordshire County Council, are to be imposed by the Hyde Institute Library, Barnet Vale.

LIBRARY USERS iN FUTURE MUST NOT:
Enter the library if their faces are offensively dirty.
Fall asleep on the tables.
Eat their lunches whilst reading papers, books, &c
Smoke in the building.
Leave their business cards behind.
Make themselves a nuisance.
Kick or damage the furniture.
Bring dogs within the portals.
Tell lies to the librarian.
Enter when they are in an inebriated con- dition.
If they have small-pox.

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Paul Mainwood @paulmainwood.bsky.social · 20h

Covid boosters are important when you're 79.
Many people are saying this.

Ron Filipkowski @ronfilipkowski.bsky.social · 1d

Trump got a Covid vaccine today.

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Paul Mainwood @paulmainwood.bsky.social · 1d

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Reposted by Paul Mainwood

Jason Furman @jasonfurman.bsky.social · 1d

The other day a student asked me about the prevalence of insider trading in prediction markets. I now have an answer.

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Paul Mainwood @paulmainwood.bsky.social · 1d

If they wanted to troll Trump, they would have given it to Obama again.

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Paul Mainwood @paulmainwood.bsky.social · 1d

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Reposted by Paul Mainwood

Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 2d

First Covid wave for 12 months is well underway. Hospital admissions are already higher than last year's peak, but are much lower than we were seeing in earlier waves.

There will be weekly surveillance reports through the winter months here:
www.gov.uk/government/s...

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Paul Mainwood @paulmainwood.bsky.social · 2d

Great headline to use out of context too.

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Reposted by Paul Mainwood

Defakator (Officiel) 🧆 @defakator.bsky.social · 5d

Haddock : Quelle semaine, hein ?
Tintin : Capitaine, on est lundi, il est 10h

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Paul Mainwood @paulmainwood.bsky.social · 5d

Honduras? ("Depths" in Spanish).

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Paul Mainwood @paulmainwood.bsky.social · 6d

How long do we have to wait before starting the conspiracy theory again? How about a round hour?

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 6d

Trump is now 40 minutes late and counting. Naval cadets still standing around in total and increasingly uncomfortable silence.

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Paul Mainwood @paulmainwood.bsky.social · 7d

Their cartoonists get it right though.

bsky.app/profile/poli...

Political Cartoon Gallery @politicalcartoon.bsky.social · 8d

Ella Baron @EBaronCartoons on the #manchesterterrorattack #synagogeattack @Guardian – political cartoon gallery in London original-political-cartoon.com

Paul Mainwood @paulmainwood.bsky.social · 7d

Yes.

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Paul Mainwood @paulmainwood.bsky.social · 7d

Italy are way ahead of us. Fixing potholes is *defence* spending. www.themeditelegraph.com/en/transport...

How Rome plans to work around NATO spending hike. Aims to label ports, roads, railways as defence and security

Italy's defence budget in 2024 was among lowest in NATO. Rome banking on accounting changes to meet new 5% goal. Other countries may follow suit if Italy's app…

www.themeditelegraph.com

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Paul Mainwood @paulmainwood.bsky.social · 7d

smbc-comics.com/comic/aaaah

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Paul Mainwood @paulmainwood.bsky.social · 9d

This chart (from the Guardian) seems somewhat misleading.
There are around 13x more Muslims than Jews in England and Wales.
So these numbers represent a >10x higher rate of offences against Jews; an astonishing >1 in 100 having suffered a religiously motivated hate crime last year.

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Paul Mainwood @paulmainwood.bsky.social · 9d

I believe there were several. "Project 2025 Was a Mirage All Along" from @politico.com's @ianwardreports.bsky.social might be worth a follow-up or two. www.politico.com/news/magazin...

It Was Supposed to Be Trump’s Administration in Waiting. But Project 2025 Was a Mirage All Along.

The inside story of how Project 2025 fell apart.

www.politico.com

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Paul Mainwood @paulmainwood.bsky.social · 11d

Just straws in the wind, perhaps. But it’s been a while since there’s been any of those.

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Paul Mainwood @paulmainwood.bsky.social · 11d

First politically hopeful day in a while: Starmer starting to call out corrosive xenophobia and racism for what they are; at least one judge absolutely incinerating attempts to suppress free speech in the US; and their military visibly dismissing Hegseth as a confused, drunken embarrassment.

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Paul Mainwood @paulmainwood.bsky.social · 12d

Horrible case. Meadow squared a 1 in 8,500 chance of a cot-death, and told a jury there was a 1 in 73m chance of two in the same family, so Sally Clark must have murdered her own children. She served three years, won an appeal, came out a shattered shell of herself, and drank herself to death.

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Paul Mainwood @paulmainwood.bsky.social · 12d

In general, finding an editorial in the Lancet, dripping with arrogance and defending some harrumphing pillar (Meadow, Wakefield, PACE, Macchiarini) is a strong indicator that they are about to withdraw the paper/resign in disgrace/be struck off.

Best reverse indicator in medical research.

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Paul Mainwood @paulmainwood.bsky.social · 12d

Consistently on the very worst side of everything. Published bullshit articles defending Roy Meadow (paediatrician who falsely secured convictions of mothers for killing their children because he - and they - can't understand conditional probability).

Editor appears to just ignore all consequences.

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Paul Mainwood @paulmainwood.bsky.social · 12d

Fun to read the: "Gosh, how unfortunate that there were all these lies, that ten of the original authors have written a withdrawal notice and admitted there's no evidence for a link, but I am the editor of the Lancet and am never wrong" 2004 article now. www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

A statement by the editors of The Lancet

On February 18, 2004, serious allegations of research misconduct concerning an article by Dr Andrew Wakefield and colleagues published in The Lancet in February, 1998,1 were brought to the attention o...

www.thelancet.com

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