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Reposted by Stuart McDonald

UK Health Security Agency @ukhsa.bsky.social · 20h

#UKHSAVirusWatch is back, a summary of our weekly winter surveillance report .🦠🧵
This week's data shows an increase in COVID-19 activity, which is circulating at medium levels. Flu activity has also increased, particularly in those aged 15 to 24, but remains at baseline levels.

Graph showing COVID-19 positive tests rising steadily from spring 2025 after a low in early 2025. Data from October 2024 to October 2025, England only.

Graph showing flu-positive tests peaking sharply in winter 2024–25 before declining and then beginning to rise again in autumn 2025. Data from October 2024 to October 2025, England only.

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Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 19h

Death rates in England & Wales were at record lows this summer, despite heatwaves.

Mortality in 2025 is at or near record lows, except for males age 45-64, who are still experiencing death rates higher than any year from 2011 - 2019.

From CMI Mortality Monitor: www.actuaries.org.uk/learn-and-de...

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Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 20h

First Covid wave for 12 months is well underway. Hospital admissions are already higher than last year's peak, but are much lower than we were seeing in earlier waves.

There will be weekly surveillance reports through the winter months here:
www.gov.uk/government/s...

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Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 1d

Thanks for sharing. And lovely to catch up yesterday.

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Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 1d

Thanks Clare. I hadn’t managed to track this down but it looks like I’d inferred the logic correctly from bits and bobs written elsewhere. Lots of parallels in here with the way I tackled the question using recent data.

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Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 2d

Thank you Henry!

Reposted by Stuart McDonald

Henry Tapper @henrytapper.bsky.social · 2d

Right now LCP’s podcasts are a distance ahead of what else is worth listening to; LCP @actuarybyday.bsky.social McDonald MBE Ben Rees Chris Tavener ; Thanks guys

Where does life expectancy go from here? Stuart McDonald and friends!

Right now LCP’s podcasts are a distance ahead of what else is worth listening to (a lot). The problem is getting listened to for all the work that Stuart and others put into their work. Which…

henrytapper.com

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Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 13d

Total Fertility Rate (TFR, in your chart) can fall for 2 reasons:
- women having fewer kids
- women having kids later

The second reason explains much of the fall shown.

An alternative is Cohort Fertility Rate. This is more robust but lags.

Think of TFR a provisional early indicator, nothing more.

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Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 13d

Vaping is not without harm. We know that already. But all the evidence points to significant harm reduction compared to combustible cigarettes.

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Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 14d

I disagree about the smoking ban. This can only help to get these teenage numbers to zero and keep them there. It will only need enforcement for a decade or so as the key is to eliminate teenage smoking. No-one takes up smoking as an adult.

Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 14d

Vaping is less common than smoking used to be. It is also less harmful.

bsky.app/profile/actu...

Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 14d

It is less common and is less harmful.

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Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 14d

No it isn’t. Vaping is not harm free but it is significantly less harmful than smoking.

bsky.app/profile/actu...

Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 14d

It is less common and is less harmful.

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Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 14d

It is less common and is less harmful.

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Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 14d

When I was 15, more than 1-in-5 boys and 1-in-4 girls my age regularly smoked. Phenomenal progress!

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Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 15d

Exhibit 1
bsky.app/profile/actu...

Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 15d

In need of some good news? Smoking has now been virtually eliminated among school age kids in England!

(Yes, some of this is a shift to vaping but still...)

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/68d3ee...

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Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 15d

In need of some good news? Smoking has now been virtually eliminated among school age kids in England!

(Yes, some of this is a shift to vaping but still...)

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/68d3ee...

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Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 15d

👏🏻

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Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 15d

An absolute goldmine of health and mortality data 📊

Well done to all involved in this.

Clare Griffiths @statsgeekclare.bsky.social · 15d

New CMO report out today on health trends and variation in England. My team delivered this using a RAP developed in R, which made a nice change from lots of people running around putting numbers into excel then pasting into powerpoint... Was not without challenges though! www.gov.uk/government/p...

Health trends and variation in England 2025: a Chief Medical Officer report

An overview of the health of England’s population, including trends over time and geographical variation.

www.gov.uk

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Reposted by Stuart McDonald

Alastair Meeks @alastairmeeks.bsky.social · 16d

Fair play to Sadiq Khan. To live rent-free inside the head of the president of the USA is a massive achievement for any Mayor of London.

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Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 16d

You can listen to episode 9 of Beyond Curious here.

This is the last episode in the current series. If you listened, I'd love to hear your thoughts.
bsky.app/profile/actu...

Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 16d

Ageing isn’t a 2070 problem – it’s happening now.

In my latest podcast @bjafranklin.bsky.social @ilcuk.bsky.social shares how longer, healthier lives could boost the economy, reshape work & retirement, and unlock opportunities we’re missing.

🎧 www.lcp.com/en/podcasts/...

#LongevityEconomy #Ageing

Beyond Curious with LCP: The Longevity Challenge

In this episode, Stuart McDonald and Ben Franklin, Deputy Chief Executive Officer at International Longevity Centre, discuss ageing, its fiscal and social impact, and how policy and work reforms could...

www.lcp.com

Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 16d

Ageing isn’t a 2070 problem – it’s happening now.

In my latest podcast @bjafranklin.bsky.social @ilcuk.bsky.social shares how longer, healthier lives could boost the economy, reshape work & retirement, and unlock opportunities we’re missing.

🎧 www.lcp.com/en/podcasts/...

#LongevityEconomy #Ageing

Beyond Curious with LCP: The Longevity Challenge

In this episode, Stuart McDonald and Ben Franklin, Deputy Chief Executive Officer at International Longevity Centre, discuss ageing, its fiscal and social impact, and how policy and work reforms could...

www.lcp.com

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Reposted by Stuart McDonald

Dr Rachel Clarke @drrachelclarke.com · 17d

Please know that this is Trump scaremongering.

There is no good scientific evidence linking paracetamol (Tylenol) to autism.

A 2024 Swedish study of 2.4 million births found no relationship whatsoever between exposure to paracetamol in utero & subsequent autism.
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...

Trump attacks Tylenol as officials unveil highly contentious conclusions on autism

President says acetaminophen – also known as paracetamol - increases risk when taken by pregnant women, assertion contradicted by research

www.theguardian.com

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Reposted by Stuart McDonald

Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 18d

I'll have more to say on Reform's proposals to scrap ILR at some point but for now I'll just note this - anyone telling you this is a popular idea doesn't know the polling. Overwhelming majority of public back giving people who work and pay taxes most or all rights after 5 years or less

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Reposted by Stuart McDonald

Steve Webb @stevewebb1.bsky.social · 24d

Average earnings up 4.7% in latest ONS figures - this is likely to drive the 'triple lock' increase next April. New state pension will be less than £1 per week under the income tax threshold in 2026, and will exceed it in 2027.

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