Stuart McDonald
@actuarybyday.bsky.social
Partner at LCP. Actuary.
Deputy Chair of the CMI.
MBE for services to Public Health.
Expect statistics and data.
Deputy Chair of the CMI.
MBE for services to Public Health.
Expect statistics and data.
Pinned
Where next for State Pension Age?
Experts at LCP have proposed major changes to the UK's State Pension system, designed to make it more sustainable while ensuring it remains fair for those with lower life expectancy.
www.lcp.com
Today @stevewebb1.bsky.social and I released a report setting out our views on where State Pension Age (SPA) needs to go. We submitted to this to the Government SPA review last month.
We recommend sharp increases to SPA, but with a guaranteed payout of 5 years. 🧵
www.lcp.com/en/insights/...
We recommend sharp increases to SPA, but with a guaranteed payout of 5 years. 🧵
www.lcp.com/en/insights/...
Disappointing outcome from trials looking at whether weight loss drug Semaglutide might delay Alzheimer’s disease progression.
Reinforces how difficult it is to find effective treatments for Alzheimer’s and dementia.
Reinforces how difficult it is to find effective treatments for Alzheimer’s and dementia.
Novo Nordisk shares fell sharply after it said a pill with the key ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy didn’t slow Alzheimer’s disease in two late-stage clinical trials.
Novo Nordisk Shares Slump After Ozempic Pill Fails in Alzheimer’s Trials
Oral semaglutide—the ingredient in obesity and diabetes drugs Ozempic and Wegovy—didn’t slow Alzheimer’s disease in two late-stage clinical trials.
on.wsj.com
November 24, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Disappointing outcome from trials looking at whether weight loss drug Semaglutide might delay Alzheimer’s disease progression.
Reinforces how difficult it is to find effective treatments for Alzheimer’s and dementia.
Reinforces how difficult it is to find effective treatments for Alzheimer’s and dementia.
Reposted by Stuart McDonald
I asked grok who was the better role model for humanity, Jesus Christ or Elon Musk. GUESS WHAT.
November 20, 2025 at 8:34 PM
I asked grok who was the better role model for humanity, Jesus Christ or Elon Musk. GUESS WHAT.
Reposted by Stuart McDonald
Thanks @actuarybyday.bsky.social , good to work with you on this. If people are interested in the Telegraph write-up, hopefully this link will work: www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/c0af53a...
Will you ever get to retire?
Dreams of retirement recede as policymakers grapple with making the state pension sustainable
www.telegraph.co.uk
November 8, 2025 at 10:27 AM
Thanks @actuarybyday.bsky.social , good to work with you on this. If people are interested in the Telegraph write-up, hopefully this link will work: www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/c0af53a...
Today @stevewebb1.bsky.social and I released a report setting out our views on where State Pension Age (SPA) needs to go. We submitted to this to the Government SPA review last month.
We recommend sharp increases to SPA, but with a guaranteed payout of 5 years. 🧵
www.lcp.com/en/insights/...
We recommend sharp increases to SPA, but with a guaranteed payout of 5 years. 🧵
www.lcp.com/en/insights/...
Where next for State Pension Age?
Experts at LCP have proposed major changes to the UK's State Pension system, designed to make it more sustainable while ensuring it remains fair for those with lower life expectancy.
www.lcp.com
November 8, 2025 at 9:38 AM
Today @stevewebb1.bsky.social and I released a report setting out our views on where State Pension Age (SPA) needs to go. We submitted to this to the Government SPA review last month.
We recommend sharp increases to SPA, but with a guaranteed payout of 5 years. 🧵
www.lcp.com/en/insights/...
We recommend sharp increases to SPA, but with a guaranteed payout of 5 years. 🧵
www.lcp.com/en/insights/...
Some thoughts on a nice safe, uncontroversial topic that is sure not to annoy anyone.
“SPA should be hiked by a year once a decade to make it more affordable, but everyone would get at least a five-year payout under a new plan floated by pension experts.”
www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/pensio...
“SPA should be hiked by a year once a decade to make it more affordable, but everyone would get at least a five-year payout under a new plan floated by pension experts.”
www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/pensio...
Should we increase state pension age by ONE year every decade
The qualifying age is currently 66 and is already set to rise to 67 between 2026 and 2028, but a Government review is under way to decide further increases.
www.thisismoney.co.uk
November 8, 2025 at 8:25 AM
Some thoughts on a nice safe, uncontroversial topic that is sure not to annoy anyone.
“SPA should be hiked by a year once a decade to make it more affordable, but everyone would get at least a five-year payout under a new plan floated by pension experts.”
www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/pensio...
“SPA should be hiked by a year once a decade to make it more affordable, but everyone would get at least a five-year payout under a new plan floated by pension experts.”
www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/pensio...
Flu is spiking up unusually early this year. The chart below shows hospital admissions, compared to six recent flu seasons.
Other indicators like flu test positivity paint the same picture.
From today's @ukhsa.bsky.social surveillance update:
www.gov.uk/government/s...
Other indicators like flu test positivity paint the same picture.
From today's @ukhsa.bsky.social surveillance update:
www.gov.uk/government/s...
November 6, 2025 at 6:38 PM
Flu is spiking up unusually early this year. The chart below shows hospital admissions, compared to six recent flu seasons.
Other indicators like flu test positivity paint the same picture.
From today's @ukhsa.bsky.social surveillance update:
www.gov.uk/government/s...
Other indicators like flu test positivity paint the same picture.
From today's @ukhsa.bsky.social surveillance update:
www.gov.uk/government/s...
Reposted by Stuart McDonald
This is really excellent data journalism... Elon Musk has declared war on the British government, it just doesn't realise it.
Elon Musk is boosting the British right - and this shows how
Elon Musk is boosting the British right - and this shows how
news.sky.com
November 6, 2025 at 10:30 AM
This is really excellent data journalism... Elon Musk has declared war on the British government, it just doesn't realise it.
"Number of unfilled primary school places in England hits record high". Link: on.ft.com/47GtJWJ
We should get used to seeing this story once a year!
We should get used to seeing this story once a year!
November 6, 2025 at 9:45 AM
"Number of unfilled primary school places in England hits record high". Link: on.ft.com/47GtJWJ
We should get used to seeing this story once a year!
We should get used to seeing this story once a year!
There's been a significant fall in obesity rates in the US, linked to weight-loss drugs, according to a recent @gallup.com survey.
After peaking at nearly 40% in 2022, the adult obesity rate has fallen to 37%. This means 7.6 million fewer people living with obesity.
news.gallup.com/poll/696599/...
After peaking at nearly 40% in 2022, the adult obesity rate has fallen to 37%. This means 7.6 million fewer people living with obesity.
news.gallup.com/poll/696599/...
November 3, 2025 at 11:34 AM
There's been a significant fall in obesity rates in the US, linked to weight-loss drugs, according to a recent @gallup.com survey.
After peaking at nearly 40% in 2022, the adult obesity rate has fallen to 37%. This means 7.6 million fewer people living with obesity.
news.gallup.com/poll/696599/...
After peaking at nearly 40% in 2022, the adult obesity rate has fallen to 37%. This means 7.6 million fewer people living with obesity.
news.gallup.com/poll/696599/...
Reposted by Stuart McDonald
The reality is we have the highest tax burden in our history, large and increasingly expensive public debt, and yet *low* taxes on average earners vs historical trend.
If we want better public services, *we* need to pay for them. But almost no-one dares to actually say that.
If we want better public services, *we* need to pay for them. But almost no-one dares to actually say that.
November 3, 2025 at 9:17 AM
The reality is we have the highest tax burden in our history, large and increasingly expensive public debt, and yet *low* taxes on average earners vs historical trend.
If we want better public services, *we* need to pay for them. But almost no-one dares to actually say that.
If we want better public services, *we* need to pay for them. But almost no-one dares to actually say that.
Reposted by Stuart McDonald
If you're a member of the National Trust remember to vote for council members by midnight tonight.
Use the Quick Vote option.
Entryist pressure group Reform Trust is trying to seize control. Stop them
Voting is quick and easy if your membership card is at hand
secure.cesvotes.com/V3-3-0/nt25/...
Use the Quick Vote option.
Entryist pressure group Reform Trust is trying to seize control. Stop them
Voting is quick and easy if your membership card is at hand
secure.cesvotes.com/V3-3-0/nt25/...
Log In
Welcome to the National Trust 2025 voting website, hosted by independent voting service provider Civica Election Services.
secure.cesvotes.com
October 31, 2025 at 2:19 PM
If you're a member of the National Trust remember to vote for council members by midnight tonight.
Use the Quick Vote option.
Entryist pressure group Reform Trust is trying to seize control. Stop them
Voting is quick and easy if your membership card is at hand
secure.cesvotes.com/V3-3-0/nt25/...
Use the Quick Vote option.
Entryist pressure group Reform Trust is trying to seize control. Stop them
Voting is quick and easy if your membership card is at hand
secure.cesvotes.com/V3-3-0/nt25/...
Flu admissions heading up... 📈
... while Covid admissions head back down. 📉
www.gov.uk/government/s...
... while Covid admissions head back down. 📉
www.gov.uk/government/s...
October 31, 2025 at 10:30 AM
Flu admissions heading up... 📈
... while Covid admissions head back down. 📉
www.gov.uk/government/s...
... while Covid admissions head back down. 📉
www.gov.uk/government/s...
Everything you ever wanted to know about pensions (but were afraid to ask)...
My colleague (and former Pensions Minister) @stevewebb1.bsky.social now has his own YouTube channel - a free searchable library of 3-minute explainer videos on pension topics.
www.youtube.com/@stevewebbexplains
My colleague (and former Pensions Minister) @stevewebb1.bsky.social now has his own YouTube channel - a free searchable library of 3-minute explainer videos on pension topics.
www.youtube.com/@stevewebbexplains
October 23, 2025 at 12:00 PM
Everything you ever wanted to know about pensions (but were afraid to ask)...
My colleague (and former Pensions Minister) @stevewebb1.bsky.social now has his own YouTube channel - a free searchable library of 3-minute explainer videos on pension topics.
www.youtube.com/@stevewebbexplains
My colleague (and former Pensions Minister) @stevewebb1.bsky.social now has his own YouTube channel - a free searchable library of 3-minute explainer videos on pension topics.
www.youtube.com/@stevewebbexplains
💊 Anti-obesity meds aren’t just a health story - they’re a longevity and finance story too.
As new drugs reshape weight management, actuaries need to rethink how we model life expectancy for pensions and insurance.
My new 'think' report explores the implications.
actuaries.org.uk/media/oehe1m...
As new drugs reshape weight management, actuaries need to rethink how we model life expectancy for pensions and insurance.
My new 'think' report explores the implications.
actuaries.org.uk/media/oehe1m...
actuaries.org.uk
October 23, 2025 at 10:20 AM
💊 Anti-obesity meds aren’t just a health story - they’re a longevity and finance story too.
As new drugs reshape weight management, actuaries need to rethink how we model life expectancy for pensions and insurance.
My new 'think' report explores the implications.
actuaries.org.uk/media/oehe1m...
As new drugs reshape weight management, actuaries need to rethink how we model life expectancy for pensions and insurance.
My new 'think' report explores the implications.
actuaries.org.uk/media/oehe1m...
There are now 625,000 people aged 90 plus in the UK. This is up by more than 50% in the last 20 years.
Around 16,600 of them are centenarians (people aged 100 plus). This has doubled since 2004. 1/2
New ONS release out today: www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
Around 16,600 of them are centenarians (people aged 100 plus). This has doubled since 2004. 1/2
New ONS release out today: www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
October 21, 2025 at 9:52 AM
There are now 625,000 people aged 90 plus in the UK. This is up by more than 50% in the last 20 years.
Around 16,600 of them are centenarians (people aged 100 plus). This has doubled since 2004. 1/2
New ONS release out today: www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
Around 16,600 of them are centenarians (people aged 100 plus). This has doubled since 2004. 1/2
New ONS release out today: www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
Today's hospital admissions data also suggesting that we may be past the peak of the current Covid-19 wave.
www.gov.uk/government/s...
www.gov.uk/government/s...
October 16, 2025 at 5:31 PM
Today's hospital admissions data also suggesting that we may be past the peak of the current Covid-19 wave.
www.gov.uk/government/s...
www.gov.uk/government/s...
Tentative indicator that we might be past the peak already on the current Covid wave. 🤞🏻
🟣 COVID-19 shows a slight decrease but continues to circulate at medium levels.
🔵 RSV has increased but remains at baseline levels.
🔵 RSV has increased but remains at baseline levels.
October 16, 2025 at 4:16 PM
Tentative indicator that we might be past the peak already on the current Covid wave. 🤞🏻
For those who enjoyed the premature mortality piece yesterday, here is the original justification for the use of age 75.
A fairly old article on how to define premature mortality, for some reason easier to find on this random website than the National Archives… @actuarybyday.bsky.social www.atlantesanitario.it/index.php?op...
www.atlantesanitario.it
October 16, 2025 at 11:03 AM
For those who enjoyed the premature mortality piece yesterday, here is the original justification for the use of age 75.
2-in-5 men die prematurely according to charity Movember, but what exactly do they mean?
It was great to be able to join Tim Harford and the 'More or Less' team on BBC Radio4 this morning to discuss life expectancy statistics and what they really mean.
This one may not mean what you think it does!
It was great to be able to join Tim Harford and the 'More or Less' team on BBC Radio4 this morning to discuss life expectancy statistics and what they really mean.
This one may not mean what you think it does!
October 15, 2025 at 10:24 AM
2-in-5 men die prematurely according to charity Movember, but what exactly do they mean?
It was great to be able to join Tim Harford and the 'More or Less' team on BBC Radio4 this morning to discuss life expectancy statistics and what they really mean.
This one may not mean what you think it does!
It was great to be able to join Tim Harford and the 'More or Less' team on BBC Radio4 this morning to discuss life expectancy statistics and what they really mean.
This one may not mean what you think it does!
Reposted by Stuart McDonald
Featured in the latest Digest: Declining Fertility in Wealthy Nations
https://www.nber.org/digest/202510/declining-fertility-wealthy-nations?page=1&perPage=50
https://www.nber.org/digest/202510/declining-fertility-wealthy-nations?page=1&perPage=50
October 3, 2025 at 9:06 PM
Featured in the latest Digest: Declining Fertility in Wealthy Nations
https://www.nber.org/digest/202510/declining-fertility-wealthy-nations?page=1&perPage=50
https://www.nber.org/digest/202510/declining-fertility-wealthy-nations?page=1&perPage=50
Reposted by Stuart McDonald
After a long pause, I've just done another England Covid & NHS update as we head into the autumn/winter season.
TLDR: we're in a significant Covid wave now, the NHS is stretched, get boosted if you're eligible.
christinapagel.substack.com/p/england-is...
TLDR: we're in a significant Covid wave now, the NHS is stretched, get boosted if you're eligible.
christinapagel.substack.com/p/england-is...
England is now experiencing a significant Covid wave, after 10 months of relative quiet
The latest Covid situation in England and a look at where NHS services are as we head into winter
christinapagel.substack.com
October 10, 2025 at 1:10 PM
After a long pause, I've just done another England Covid & NHS update as we head into the autumn/winter season.
TLDR: we're in a significant Covid wave now, the NHS is stretched, get boosted if you're eligible.
christinapagel.substack.com/p/england-is...
TLDR: we're in a significant Covid wave now, the NHS is stretched, get boosted if you're eligible.
christinapagel.substack.com/p/england-is...
What if ageing isn’t the problem - but our systems are?
My new blog explores how changing #demographics is affecting retirement, #health, and the economy.
The question is not whether demographic trends will reshape our world – it’s how we will choose to respond.
🔗 www.lcp.com/en/insights/...
My new blog explores how changing #demographics is affecting retirement, #health, and the economy.
The question is not whether demographic trends will reshape our world – it’s how we will choose to respond.
🔗 www.lcp.com/en/insights/...
Beyond the numbers: How demographic change is rewriting the rules of retirement, health and growth
Explore how demographic change is reshaping health, pensions, and the economy, with key insights from Beyond Curious season 4.
www.lcp.com
October 10, 2025 at 3:56 PM
What if ageing isn’t the problem - but our systems are?
My new blog explores how changing #demographics is affecting retirement, #health, and the economy.
The question is not whether demographic trends will reshape our world – it’s how we will choose to respond.
🔗 www.lcp.com/en/insights/...
My new blog explores how changing #demographics is affecting retirement, #health, and the economy.
The question is not whether demographic trends will reshape our world – it’s how we will choose to respond.
🔗 www.lcp.com/en/insights/...
Reposted by Stuart McDonald
#UKHSAVirusWatch is back, a summary of our weekly winter surveillance report .🦠🧵
This week's data shows an increase in COVID-19 activity, which is circulating at medium levels. Flu activity has also increased, particularly in those aged 15 to 24, but remains at baseline levels.
This week's data shows an increase in COVID-19 activity, which is circulating at medium levels. Flu activity has also increased, particularly in those aged 15 to 24, but remains at baseline levels.
October 9, 2025 at 3:18 PM
#UKHSAVirusWatch is back, a summary of our weekly winter surveillance report .🦠🧵
This week's data shows an increase in COVID-19 activity, which is circulating at medium levels. Flu activity has also increased, particularly in those aged 15 to 24, but remains at baseline levels.
This week's data shows an increase in COVID-19 activity, which is circulating at medium levels. Flu activity has also increased, particularly in those aged 15 to 24, but remains at baseline levels.
Death rates in England & Wales were at record lows this summer, despite heatwaves.
Mortality in 2025 is at or near record lows, except for males age 45-64, who are still experiencing death rates higher than any year from 2011 - 2019.
From CMI Mortality Monitor: www.actuaries.org.uk/learn-and-de...
Mortality in 2025 is at or near record lows, except for males age 45-64, who are still experiencing death rates higher than any year from 2011 - 2019.
From CMI Mortality Monitor: www.actuaries.org.uk/learn-and-de...
October 9, 2025 at 4:26 PM
Death rates in England & Wales were at record lows this summer, despite heatwaves.
Mortality in 2025 is at or near record lows, except for males age 45-64, who are still experiencing death rates higher than any year from 2011 - 2019.
From CMI Mortality Monitor: www.actuaries.org.uk/learn-and-de...
Mortality in 2025 is at or near record lows, except for males age 45-64, who are still experiencing death rates higher than any year from 2011 - 2019.
From CMI Mortality Monitor: www.actuaries.org.uk/learn-and-de...
First Covid wave for 12 months is well underway. Hospital admissions are already higher than last year's peak, but are much lower than we were seeing in earlier waves.
There will be weekly surveillance reports through the winter months here:
www.gov.uk/government/s...
There will be weekly surveillance reports through the winter months here:
www.gov.uk/government/s...
October 9, 2025 at 3:25 PM
First Covid wave for 12 months is well underway. Hospital admissions are already higher than last year's peak, but are much lower than we were seeing in earlier waves.
There will be weekly surveillance reports through the winter months here:
www.gov.uk/government/s...
There will be weekly surveillance reports through the winter months here:
www.gov.uk/government/s...