Peter Dorman
@pdorman.bsky.social
I'm a political economist and writer on economics, politics, climate change, statistics, and lots more. I've written four books, stacks of articles and reports, blogs and am working on book #5. Watch out for really bad puns. .. more
I'm a political economist and writer on economics, politics, climate change, statistics, and lots more. I've written four books, stacks of articles and reports, blogs and am working on book #5. Watch out for really bad puns.
Peter FitzGerald Dorman is an American epigrapher, philologist, and Egyptologist. Recently a professor of history and archaeology at the American University of Beirut (AUB), he served as the 15th President of the university from 2008 to 2015. He spent most of his career as a professor and chair in the department of Near Eastern Languages and Civilizations (NELC) of the University of Chicago, and was director of Chicago House in Luxor, the Epigraphic Survey field project of the Oriental Institute. He is presently a professor emeritus of the University of Chicago. .. more
Economics
39%
History
22%
It's useful to note that Rogoff got his start (his diss I think, but I might remember it wrong) applying game theory to sovereign debt issues. My diss was applied game theory too! But by my defense I was mostly skeptical.
The thing to bear in mind is that, since the Trump people don't enforce the law and lie about everything they do, no reform matters unless it is tied to external oversight. That goes for everything and not just ICE.
Democrats Aren’t Reining in ICE. Here’s How They Could.
ICE is out of control. Democrats have numerous ways to restrain the agency, from barring ICE from domestic spying and terminating its contracts with tech companies to creating and fully funding an ind...
jacobin.com
These are all good suggestions, and the underlying point is right. I would add one thing, though. The critical reform (if you want one) is accountability. DOJ and DHS must commit to allowing state and local agencies to investigate and prosecute ICE and BP agents.
jacobin.com/2026/02/demo...
jacobin.com/2026/02/demo...
Long ago I used a program called Stella that generated visualizations of systems of differential equations, very intuitive. You could see feedbacks operating on a period-to-period basis. I had a simplified model of income ≠ generating wealth ≠ and vice versa. There must be something like it now.
One Solution for Too Many A’s? Harvard Considers Giving A+ Grades.
www.nytimes.com
A+ is the new 11! Crank it up!
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/29/u...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/29/u...
Videos Show Alex Pretti in Confrontation With Agents 11 Days Before His Death
www.nytimes.com
There is a strong possibility that ICE maintains a database of people who have previously confronted them. They have photo recognition on their phones. Investigators should explore whether Pretti's murder was premeditated.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/28/u...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/28/u...
Why Is the Trump Administration Demanding Minnesota’s Voter Rolls?
www.nytimes.com
This is a bizarre article, which doesn't even try to answer the crucial question in the headline. *What can the Trump people do with those rolls?* The lack of serious thinking on this topic is itself scary. Lay out the scenarios in which access to voter data matters.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/26/u...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/26/u...
Read the NYT critically. Long ago I worked for them in the newsroom, and I got a first hand look at the cross pressures that determine what get's printed. Different reporters. Editorial oversight. And of course there are smart (e.g. Jamelle B) and clueless (Doubthat) opinion people.
Pricing Lives
Trump’s EPA has kicked up a firestorm by announcing that, in performing cost-benefit analyses of proposed regulations, it will not assign dollar values to lives saved by reducing pollution.
open.substack.com
What about the decision by Trump's EPA to not put a monetary value on lives saved by regulation? Overdue or outrage? To answer we need the length and depth of Substack, not Bluesky.
DOGE Employees Shared Social Security Data, Court Filing Shows
www.nytimes.com
Note the part near the end about DOGE people merging Social Security data with voter rolls. This points to one possibility I played up in my Substack: if Trump gains access to other state voter rolls, he will try to use them to implement selective voter suppression.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/20/u...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/20/u...
Judge: Hands off Oregon voters’ most private data
reader.theoregonian.com
This is an important ruling for Nov. If the Feds can access the full voter rolls in blue states, it gives them more options for selective suppression. No doubt decisions such as this will be appealed, and in the end it will be up to SCOTUS to hold the line.
reader.theoregonian.com/judge-hands-...
reader.theoregonian.com/judge-hands-...
I don't know about this polling outfit and how reliable their weighted samples are, but: there appears to be no question about either support for labor or dealing with the power of corporations and the rich. Like, these are not even issues people would have opinions about.
Aside from the utter inanity of the whole thing, the Greenland "issue" is a straight up economic problem. It's a big chunk of real estate. What's Trump's initial offer? And where would the money come from? New taxes? Cuts to other budgets? More debt? Is anyone even asking?
3. If not, he will have to make a claim about voting machines that can lead to annulling the vote in a number of blue jurisdictions. 4. Meanwhile, centrist D's will downplay threats of prosecution etc. if they get the majority to try to induce R's to forego interference. This strategy will fail.
1. Trump will definitely try to mess with the election if it looks like he'll lose one or both congressional majorities. 2. If the Supremes give him the power to access state voter rolls, he will take it, and suppression is on the table.
The first step is to put yourself in their shoes with their resources. What would you do? It begins with some form of federalization of voting lists, voting apparatuses etc. Then selective disqualification. Don't forget dual state theory.
A terrible event in the world of cream cheese... I just posted this to Hungry Onion. Any thoughts?
I wish I could be as optimistic. The only thing that counts right now is how *R's* think, and 2/3 are OK with Good's killing. The rest of us matter only if the R's are willing to allow it, and then not until Nov.
Could there have been aerial surveillance of Minneapolis when Renee Good was killed? Has anyone examined the possibility? Have the relevant agencies been queried?
Just saw "Cover-Up", the new documentary on Sy Hersh. It's really good, politically insightful, fair and remarkably well-organized. Great archival footage. It's streaming on Netflix and shouldn't be missed.
About a month ago, our "Stop Arming Israel" sign was stolen. So we put up a new one, and redirected the security camera on it. A few nights ago it was stolen again -- by someone who snuck along the side of the house to avoid the camera, rather than just walking up from the street.
Court Records Reveal Details of ICE Agent’s Previous Dragging Incident
www.nytimes.com
See the last paragraph. This is why MN should be seeking an emergency order placing all evidence in judicial custody. The bullet holes in the driver's side window will be dispositive. Of course, the evidence from the autopsy is also crucial.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/08/u...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/08/u...
Minn. Officials Say They’re Being Blocked From Investigating Fatal ICE Shooting
www.nytimes.com
Can someone explain to me why MN would withdraw from investigating this killing rather than seeking an emergency court order mandating access to evidence? Don't they have a legal (not to mention ethical) responsibility to pursue this?
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/08/u...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/08/u...
New Car Sales Are Rising Thanks to Purchases by the Well-Off
www.nytimes.com
An underappreciated effect of rising income inequality: shifting production toward higher-end goods. This can disadvantage consumers further down on the ladder.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/05/b...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/05/b...
A few decades ago, a friend told me that, when he walked into a gym and shouted "Hey Conan!", all the heads would turn toward him. Now I guess you'd try this by walking into the State Department.
Peter Dorman
@pdorman.bsky.social
· Jan 5
This is extracted from the latest Paul Krugman post. Note that a solid majority of Republicans (in this poll) support the US taking over Venezuela, with another quarter undecided.
Peter Dorman
@pdorman.bsky.social
· Jan 5
Opinion | Science Keeps Changing. So Why Should We Trust It?
www.nytimes.com
It's an argument from heterogeneity across scientific realms. True. But the whole trust/doubt dichotomy is a false duality. The question is extent of support, direct and indirect for a given claim: evidence & consistency w/ well-established bodies of knowledge.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/05/o...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/05/o...
Peter Dorman
@pdorman.bsky.social
· Jan 4
Portland this morning from Mt. Tabor. Fortunately, that's fog, not tear gas.
Peter Dorman
@pdorman.bsky.social
· Jan 4
One reason the Venezuelan kidnapping seems crazy to us is we don't see force the way militarists do. Force is not a means but an end: dominance. You have to use it from time to time for it to remain effective. Even losing works if you cause enough damage.
Peter Dorman
@pdorman.bsky.social
· Jan 4
The way it works with Trump is that the ransom comes first. If you don't pay it, then you get kidnapped.