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profspur

@profspur.bsky.social

3.1K followers 360 following 1.7K posts

I write the Profspur Analysis newsletter https://profspur.substack.com

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profspur @profspur.bsky.social · 5d

New from me, inspired by @nathanaclark.bsky.social and @theextrainch.bsky.social discussion on whether small-sample xG is inferior to tactical analysis this early in the season: profspur.substack.com/p/what-groun...

What Grounds Tactical Observations?

Sample size is a thing even when you're not counting.

profspur.substack.com

profspur @profspur.bsky.social · 1h

Yep

profspur @profspur.bsky.social · 1h

Yeah I can't believe I'm lucky enough to get a crack at this for a year.

profspur @profspur.bsky.social · 1h

Absolutely, it's so fun. I don't know what I'd do with myself without football, honestly.

Training tomorrow evening! Will be low-key though.

profspur @profspur.bsky.social · 2h

Yeah this is it

profspur @profspur.bsky.social · 3h

It's way too soon to judge any manager. This is not a continuation of Spurs last season. It's a new job and a new team. It's been weeks.

profspur @profspur.bsky.social · 3h

I get that it's very frustrating and bleak now, but I think it's too early to make these judgments. People wouldn't judge any new manager after just 3 weeks in the job. This is only happening because the narrative was already distorted and hasn't dissipated from last season at Spurs.

profspur @profspur.bsky.social · 3h

And a lot of games in just 3 weeks.

profspur @profspur.bsky.social · 3h

Solid 70 mins in the 43-year-old legs this morning for KIng's College, Cambridge, my first full-pitch 11s minutes in years. Pray for my ability to metabolize lactic acid over the next 48 hours.

profspur @profspur.bsky.social · 8h

Indeed.

profspur @profspur.bsky.social · 8h

Yeah, people will just say anything.

profspur @profspur.bsky.social · 8h

Yeah, absolutely. There was a narrative last season that this is why you should go for a manager with Premier League experience, and I was like....he finished 5th in his first season. He has Premier League experience. You don't get 'found out' in 10 games and still finish 5th in the PL.

profspur @profspur.bsky.social · 9h

N.B. If you're wondering why I picked wk 13 for the snapshot above, in case you didn't know, it's when the injury cascade started and really sunk the season. The results and numbers show that Ange's system actually got *better* in season 2, but the results tanked due to high game volume + injuries.

profspur @profspur.bsky.social · 9h

5) As I've said before, it's very Trumpian, this tendency to lie. The fact is there are plenty of ways to criticize Ange and last season at Spurs that don't involve lying and gross distortion. It was an objectively poor league season. You don't have to exaggerate to make point! /end

profspur @profspur.bsky.social · 9h

4) So I don't get why people keep repeating things that are so easily disproven, not even with fancy underlying numbers, but just basic results and goals for, against. I'd like to think you're not stupid, so what's the problem? Lazy? Malicious? ...

profspur @profspur.bsky.social · 9h

3) Spiers, for example, is still out there saying it was 10 games in Ange's first season then 'relegation form' for the rest. I mean, here's the PL form table 13 weeks into the *2nd* season. Spurs are 7th, 5 pts off 2nd, same GA as Are, Chels, 5 fewer conceded than City, 2nd best GD in the league...

profspur @profspur.bsky.social · 9h

2) Not only can English football not stop talking about Ange, even in e.g. VFTL's international break pod, and the things people say make me wonder genuinely if we're doing journalism with rational thinking or just viral content mining. ...

profspur @profspur.bsky.social · 9h

1) Trigger warning: Ange content:

The coverage of Postecoglou's recent past at Spurs (i.e. last season) remains extremely lazy. I'm sometimes criticized for discussing Ange after he's left Spurs, but virtually every podcast I listen to now has some random segment battering him & his time at Spurs..

profspur @profspur.bsky.social · 2d

Unbelievable

Mohsin @mohsinbadat.bsky.social · 2d

You could say that...

profspur @profspur.bsky.social · 2d

Hahaha just did

profspur @profspur.bsky.social · 2d

Hopefully their relationship is close enough that he can because that would be hilarious

profspur @profspur.bsky.social · 2d

Not to be awkward but is Brennan Johnson in the Djed Penitentiary now?

Reposted by profspur

Mohamed @moesquare.bsky.social · 3d

I suspect Ben Torvaney isn't on here, but I'd be remiss to not mention an old blog post of his on the value of bad chances in certain contexts, as it was applicable to Krstović during his time with Lecce and was discussed in the piece. Hope you enjoy!

www.statsandsnakeoil.com/2021/01/24/a...

Are bad shots actually good?

Last month, I saw an interesting tweet from Kees van Hemmen (emphasis is my own): Correct me if I’m wrong here but, if you’re a low quality side in a league, you’d actually prefer a dozen long shots

www.statsandsnakeoil.com

profspur @profspur.bsky.social · 2d

Interesting!

profspur @profspur.bsky.social · 3d

Can't get Deki back soon enough.

profspur @profspur.bsky.social · 3d

No doubt the idea of the phrase as an Americanism has been in the British zeitgeist.