profspur
@profspur.bsky.social
I write the profspur analysis newsletter https://profspur.substack.com
Pinned
You Can't Hack Football
On the danger of forgetting who you are.
profspur.substack.com
In my latest: Shots fired against the conventional wisdom of football technocracy, or as one of you aptly put it, Football Centrism. profspur.substack.com/p/you-cant-h...
It’s true I’m playing college football in Cambridge in my 40s but not even I have this kind of confidence in my longevity.
Until death? Or until the end of the season? Confusing quote from Casemiro used there…
www.fotmob.com/news/5ahfbxs...
www.fotmob.com/news/5ahfbxs...
‘I am Manchester United until death’ – Casemiro confirms exit at end of the season
After four seasons with Manchester United, Casemiro will leave Old Trafford at the end of his contract this summer.
www.fotmob.com
January 22, 2026 at 10:30 PM
It’s true I’m playing college football in Cambridge in my 40s but not even I have this kind of confidence in my longevity.
It occurs to me that Spurs should be sponsored by Huy Fong Foods (California-based producer of the correct sriracha).
My mom got me a cockerel of hot sauce cause she saw it and thought of Spurs.
Cute.
Cute.
January 22, 2026 at 5:57 PM
It occurs to me that Spurs should be sponsored by Huy Fong Foods (California-based producer of the correct sriracha).
When a manager is in trouble there's often lots of talk of whether the players are still playing for the manager, running hard for the manager, etc. What this underestimates is how much pride elite athletes take in playing for themselves and each other. Sluggish or bad performances benefit no one.
January 22, 2026 at 12:04 PM
When a manager is in trouble there's often lots of talk of whether the players are still playing for the manager, running hard for the manager, etc. What this underestimates is how much pride elite athletes take in playing for themselves and each other. Sluggish or bad performances benefit no one.
This context is important. When I stood up for Ange last season it was because the underlying numbers were really, really good for most of the season, despite the results. People have asked why I'm less patient w/ Frank. Simple: because of this: theanalyst.com/articles/tot...
Tottenham’s Champions League Position Cannot Save Doomed Thomas Frank | Opta Analyst
Tottenham’s underlying numbers are as bad as their Premier League position suggests. There is little reason to believe Thomas Frank can turn this around.
theanalyst.com
January 22, 2026 at 11:26 AM
This context is important. When I stood up for Ange last season it was because the underlying numbers were really, really good for most of the season, despite the results. People have asked why I'm less patient w/ Frank. Simple: because of this: theanalyst.com/articles/tot...
Also I think Solanke is criminally underrated. In terms of all-around play--finishing, aerial, hold-up, combining, dribbling, pressing, positioning--there are very few strikers in the Premier League I'd rather have. Probably won't happen but he should be Kane's backup for England.
Solanke’s goal: He’s not getting enough credit. Fortunate in the end but the move to drag the ball forward into the goal with his trailing leg on a pass behind him was intentional (& skillful). Risk always it will hit your planted leg when you do that, but did well to make a play on the ball there.
January 22, 2026 at 10:48 AM
Also I think Solanke is criminally underrated. In terms of all-around play--finishing, aerial, hold-up, combining, dribbling, pressing, positioning--there are very few strikers in the Premier League I'd rather have. Probably won't happen but he should be Kane's backup for England.
Solanke’s goal: He’s not getting enough credit. Fortunate in the end but the move to drag the ball forward into the goal with his trailing leg on a pass behind him was intentional (& skillful). Risk always it will hit your planted leg when you do that, but did well to make a play on the ball there.
January 22, 2026 at 9:37 AM
Solanke’s goal: He’s not getting enough credit. Fortunate in the end but the move to drag the ball forward into the goal with his trailing leg on a pass behind him was intentional (& skillful). Risk always it will hit your planted leg when you do that, but did well to make a play on the ball there.
Straight back to London today for pickup football, possibly overestimating my energy levels.
January 21, 2026 at 2:48 PM
Straight back to London today for pickup football, possibly overestimating my energy levels.
Yes, also we're not a good counterattacking side. We're so compressed out of possession that when we win it back it's like watching a crumpled old sponge unfold. It takes forever to get people wide and forward to receive outlet passes, so we end up dawdling on the ball in transition scenarios.
You know what, I was reminded yesterday of this.
Early on under Frank, I remember thinking that us being a really good countering side (at the time) and lacking ideas meant we were likely to be successful and look great in games where we scored first. City away was a great example..
Early on under Frank, I remember thinking that us being a really good countering side (at the time) and lacking ideas meant we were likely to be successful and look great in games where we scored first. City away was a great example..
January 21, 2026 at 12:37 PM
Yes, also we're not a good counterattacking side. We're so compressed out of possession that when we win it back it's like watching a crumpled old sponge unfold. It takes forever to get people wide and forward to receive outlet passes, so we end up dawdling on the ball in transition scenarios.
Bit of a noisy table, but we’ve taken the lead 18 times this season, surrendered it 7 times, and had less possession in 2nd half in 14 of 17 games in which we’ve taken the lead.
January 21, 2026 at 12:04 PM
Bit of a noisy table, but we’ve taken the lead 18 times this season, surrendered it 7 times, and had less possession in 2nd half in 14 of 17 games in which we’ve taken the lead.
Again this worries me bc I spotted it in the very first game v PSG, when we tanked a 2-goal lead by abandoning controlled possession. We've done this over and over again this season, sometimes surrendering leads, often allowing 2nd-half hope for opponents. It's the pragmatism fallacy in action.
I thought we were excellent yesterday. It was an aggressive, comprehensive victory over a quality side. But again the choice to stand off in 2nd half troubles me. We conceded 0.00 xG and 0 shots in the first half going at them, gave them their only chance in 2nd half sitting off w/ 45% possession.
January 21, 2026 at 11:40 AM
Again this worries me bc I spotted it in the very first game v PSG, when we tanked a 2-goal lead by abandoning controlled possession. We've done this over and over again this season, sometimes surrendering leads, often allowing 2nd-half hope for opponents. It's the pragmatism fallacy in action.
Lot's of responses along the lines of 'it's understandable to sit off, players are tired, depleted squad, etc.' but frankly I think that's a fallacy and I don't know why it's conventional wisdom that controlled possession (v 10 men) is more physically taxing than defending for 35 minutes straight.
I thought we were excellent yesterday. It was an aggressive, comprehensive victory over a quality side. But again the choice to stand off in 2nd half troubles me. We conceded 0.00 xG and 0 shots in the first half going at them, gave them their only chance in 2nd half sitting off w/ 45% possession.
January 21, 2026 at 11:31 AM
Lot's of responses along the lines of 'it's understandable to sit off, players are tired, depleted squad, etc.' but frankly I think that's a fallacy and I don't know why it's conventional wisdom that controlled possession (v 10 men) is more physically taxing than defending for 35 minutes straight.
I thought we were excellent yesterday. It was an aggressive, comprehensive victory over a quality side. But again the choice to stand off in 2nd half troubles me. We conceded 0.00 xG and 0 shots in the first half going at them, gave them their only chance in 2nd half sitting off w/ 45% possession.
January 21, 2026 at 10:38 AM
I thought we were excellent yesterday. It was an aggressive, comprehensive victory over a quality side. But again the choice to stand off in 2nd half troubles me. We conceded 0.00 xG and 0 shots in the first half going at them, gave them their only chance in 2nd half sitting off w/ 45% possession.
For a moment yesterday in the 2nd half, Vicario put his studs on the ball as the back line flanked him and Dortmund were sitting off. We were up 2-0. Yet the guy next to me was screaming obscenity at Vicario, and like…Vicario was doing the exact right thing in that scenario.
January 21, 2026 at 10:33 AM
For a moment yesterday in the 2nd half, Vicario put his studs on the ball as the back line flanked him and Dortmund were sitting off. We were up 2-0. Yet the guy next to me was screaming obscenity at Vicario, and like…Vicario was doing the exact right thing in that scenario.
Titans of European football
January 20, 2026 at 11:12 PM
Titans of European football
Nah man I don’t like this working on set pieces 20 mins before kickoff.
January 20, 2026 at 7:43 PM
Nah man I don’t like this working on set pieces 20 mins before kickoff.
Watching GKs warm up and Kinsky just took it in his instep out of the air from a corner kick and volleyed into the top corner, a precious reminder that even the keepers are better outfield players than I’ve ever been and will ever be.
January 20, 2026 at 7:24 PM
Watching GKs warm up and Kinsky just took it in his instep out of the air from a corner kick and volleyed into the top corner, a precious reminder that even the keepers are better outfield players than I’ve ever been and will ever be.
Ok I’m going to the match tonight after all. Curiosity wins out over fiscal prudence and intelligent time management once again.
January 20, 2026 at 12:42 PM
Ok I’m going to the match tonight after all. Curiosity wins out over fiscal prudence and intelligent time management once again.
And when I went to purchase a last-minute ticket this morning I was put in a queue, so haven’t done so.
Less than 24 hours before kickoff and this is just the state of the south stand.
The only thing that will make the owners sit up and take notice of something not quite right at their event space team... #COYS
The only thing that will make the owners sit up and take notice of something not quite right at their event space team... #COYS
January 20, 2026 at 10:08 AM
And when I went to purchase a last-minute ticket this morning I was put in a queue, so haven’t done so.
This would be a good deal if we didn’t throttle our football program last summer and still had use for a highly technical winger.
[Ornstein] Oscar Bobb is expected to be sold by Man City this month, with the possibility of developments this week amid interest from the Premier League, Germany and Portugal. It is likely to take an offer of around £30M for a deal to be done.
January 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM
This would be a good deal if we didn’t throttle our football program last summer and still had use for a highly technical winger.
Can anyone recommend a lunch spot with drinks in Hackney?
January 20, 2026 at 9:55 AM
Can anyone recommend a lunch spot with drinks in Hackney?
If we lose Tel I'm going to be furious.
January 19, 2026 at 9:17 PM
If we lose Tel I'm going to be furious.
In our last 7 games we have 4 losses and 1 win (which we ‘lost’ on xG) and have had a lower xG than our opponents in 5 of the 7:
January 19, 2026 at 6:40 PM
In our last 7 games we have 4 losses and 1 win (which we ‘lost’ on xG) and have had a lower xG than our opponents in 5 of the 7:
Do not tell me he dropped Tel from the UCL squad.
January 19, 2026 at 4:37 PM
Do not tell me he dropped Tel from the UCL squad.
Of our 11 total wins in 31 games this season: 1 against a League 1 side; 2 against non-top 5 European league teams; 2 against promoted teams; 1 against relegation zone team. That leaves just 5 wins against PL staples + Villarreal.
The 4 wins we've gotten since November 1st have been against Copenhagen, Brentford, Slavia Prague, and Palace. The remaining 7 of our 11 total wins this season came against Burnley, City, West Ham, Villarreal, Doncaster, Leeds, and Everton.
Not good.
Not good.
January 19, 2026 at 3:36 PM
Of our 11 total wins in 31 games this season: 1 against a League 1 side; 2 against non-top 5 European league teams; 2 against promoted teams; 1 against relegation zone team. That leaves just 5 wins against PL staples + Villarreal.