Quantian
@quantian.bsky.social
12K followers 250 following 1.5K posts
Locked in and posting regularly on here now
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quantian.bsky.social
How did Milei fuck this up specifically with a peso crisis. Wasn’t devaluing the peso literally the first thing he did when he got into office? Everybody knows you take the day 1 hit and blame it on the prior guy, c’mon.
quantian.bsky.social
If elites will acquiesce to authoritarian consolidation because the economy seems to be chugging along and they personally are doing fine, then that is a problem but also fortunately a fixable one.
quantian.bsky.social
I am not sure at this point if Dems at the federal level have a better near term strategic option than “let Trump wreck the economy and hope voters blame him for it”. There are more options at the state level but they are really screwed given how the media has lined up behind Trump.
kwcollins.bsky.social
If Dems win the standoff and get their policy demands, yes they will have substantively helped millions of Americans (a good thing, to be clear), but also they will have kept Republicans from a self-inflicted wound in upcoming elections
quantian.bsky.social
Not liking this one, touch grass nerd
quantian.bsky.social
You might say I've played a little Hades 2...
quantian.bsky.social
I have added several hundred children worth of alpha to our ERISA assets this year and I should get to claim them all as dependents on my tax return god damn it.
quantian.bsky.social
1 basis point of outperformance vs the index on a billion dollars of pension assets provides the equivalent funding benefit as adding 9 new workers, so clearly the right policy to ensure stable retirement systems is tax families with children in order to lower them on successful hedge fund managers.
quantian.bsky.social
If there was a premature child who would die unless they were put in a robot womb, but the only way to turn on the womb was to say a slur, would it be acceptable then, huh??
quantian.bsky.social
How is MSFT overearning, half of operating income is from Office. Will people stop using Excel in a post-AI world?
quantian.bsky.social
ChatGPT in my Bloomberg push notifs? Excuse me, I pay $30k a year for the only the finest human curated news about third-string index arb PMs blowing out of their Millennium seats to go to ExodusPoint
quantian.bsky.social
yeah they expect large earnings declines from competition by Elon Musk's Macrohard, so I'll take the other side of that any day lol
quantian.bsky.social
If you refi your mortgage from 8% to 4.5% that frees up quite a bit of cashflow for you to spend!
quantian.bsky.social
If Microsoft did trade down to a P/E of 3 my considered financial advice is that you should max out all your credit cards and also take a loan from Vinny Kneecaps at 50% interest to buy it.
quantian.bsky.social
Mid 5’s is still quite low, that’s not far above the cyclical low in 06-07!
quantian.bsky.social
Trough multiples on NTM EPS for FB in 2022 were like 12 and Zuck absolutely refused to cut capex. Apply that to MSFT and you get something around -65% on the stock, -90 would be a P/E of 3. Hard to imagine it ever getting that cheap.
quantian.bsky.social
To the extent any of these are truly recessionary it would be top decile spending falling. Is that enough to push things over the line? Maybe but any recession feels likely to be shallow given plenty of whitespace for them to lever up, especially if mortgage rates fall.
quantian.bsky.social
Some private credit funds get donut’d but given the ownership distribution I doubt there will be contagion. Don’t see any major move in unemployment. High end consumer spending pulls back due to negative wealth effects. Maybe a rate cut or three, but probably nothing below 3%ish given inflation.
quantian.bsky.social
“What does the AI bubble bursting look like” is basically analogous to “what does the COVID bubble bursting look like”. Broad indices down 25%-ish, Mag7 names down 40-70% depending on how fast they walk away from cape plans, pure play names down 60-80%, GDP flatlines for a quarter or two.
quantian.bsky.social
Fun fact: they used to be called “FSD Pharma” but even the other scammers got tired of waiting for Elon to finally release it
quantian.bsky.social
(15% of the time it’s Thiel and 4% of the time it’s Andreessen)
quantian.bsky.social
Elon Musk’s existence is incredibly load bearing to lefty techno skeptics. Any critique made by certain a kind of dumb guy on Bluesky or Twitter is at least 80% likely to a critique of a specific identifiable Musk Thing and not really anybody else.
quantian.bsky.social
Yeah I’m sure some platinum plated executive healthcare product exists which is like “you can go to any doctor in the US and we will handle everything for you, that will be $5,000 a month” and I would buy that just so I never have to think about it
quantian.bsky.social
I buy a lot of specialized non-healthcare insurance and the process is literally 100x easier and more straightforward than this, you just get some competitive quotes and then slide around the premium/deductible until you’ve calibrated your risk transfer appropriately
quantian.bsky.social
Man I’m in like the top 0.1% of Americans for, like, quantitative financial modeling and the idea of having to do some kind of actuarial underwriting of my expected healthcare expenses to buy a plan strikes me as such an insane way to run a system (no shade on OP for the great thread, to be clear)
tznkai.bsky.social
It's open enrollment time so here's a convenient peg to hang a little tutorial about how to choose your health insurance.

Most of the advice you get is bad. Most of your instincts are bad. I however used to work for a health insurance company and I do arithmetic for a living so I can help.
batmansrobyn.bsky.social
Personally I think it's great that my company's HR sends out an official looking tool where they even ask you to pre-populate your healthcare providers and instead of being the actual insurance enrollment process it's just some bullshit checklist to try and convince me I actually don't want a PPO