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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · 28d

Shohei Ohtani throws five no-hit innings and hits his 50th home run of the year to establish the 50 HR/50 K club, as the Phillies defeat the Dodgers, 9-6.

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · Sep 9

Currently working on a projection system for fantasy baseball, right now it’s only looking at 2025 stats but I’m working on including 2024 & 2023 stats to better project for 2026. Here’s the top 10 hitters in projected value so far (assuming standard 5x5 league format):

1. Juan Soto - NYM
2. Shohei Ohtani - LAD
3. Aaron Judge - NYY
4. Pete Alonso - NYM
5. Kyle Schwarber - PHI
6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - TOR
7. Bobby Witt Jr. - KCR
8. Byron Buxton - MIN
9. Corbin Carroll - ARI
10. Fernando Tatis Jr. - SDP

King Raj @rajmehta.ca · Sep 1

Top 10 players in #MLB by rajWAR through the end of August:

1. Aaron Judge - 7.9
2. Shohei Ohtani - 7.7
3. Fernando Tatis Jr. - 7.4
4. Kyle Tucker - 6.8
5. Geraldo Perdomo - 6.3
6. Kyle Schwarber - 6.3
7. Cal Raleigh - 6.2
8. Paul Skenes - 5.4
9. Zack Wheeler - 5.2
10. Nick Kurtz - 5.1

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · Aug 28

I'm pleased to announce that I'm now a writer for Prospects Live! I'll mainly be writing about dynasty baseball and prospects, though I'll sometimes write about general baseball analysis.

I'm excited for the opportunity and can't wait to begin my journey working in baseball!

www.prospectslive.com

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · Aug 20

Here’s Andrew Heaney’s performance bonuses, according to @spotrac.com:

Andrew Heaney’s performance bonus incentives, per spotrac.com:

120 IP: $50K
130 IP: $100K
140 IP: $150K
150 IP: $150K
160 IP: $150K
170 IP: $150K

King Raj @rajmehta.ca · Aug 20

There is a non-zero chance that the Pirates DFA Andrew Heaney to make room for Bubba Chandler on the roster. Heaney has bonuses that start when he hits 120 IP, and he’s currently at 119.2 IP. They did something similar to Rowdy Tellez last year, who was 4 PA shy of a $200K bonus before he was DFA’d.

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · Jul 23

Jax is elite, a lot of the bad overall numbers this year was due to a few unlucky blow-up outings back in April (7.50 ERA, 2.51 FIP in the month). He has a 2.30 ERA (1.69 FIP) since the start of May.

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · Jul 23

Maybe Jhoan Duran or Griffin Jax?

King Raj @rajmehta.ca · Jul 18

Thank you for reading, and don't forget to share by reposting the start of the thread!

King Raj @rajmehta.ca · Jul 18

🧵 Since the Jays are leading the AL East and the trade deadline is a couple weeks away, the Jays are without a doubt looking to add. But what do they need? The rotation needs an ace, and every team could use a bullpen arm, but I believe the lineup could use an addition as well. Here's why:

King Raj @rajmehta.ca · Jul 18

Therefore, the trade would be Willi Castro ($4.3M SV) for Johnny King and Eddinson Paulino ($5.5M SV). It's a mild overpay for the Jays, possibly a large overpay depending on how you feel about the prospects, but you have to give something to get something, and this is a fair deal for both sides.

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · Jul 18

Paulino was acquired by the Jays at last year's deadline from the Red Sox for Danny Jansen, and this year he's been an average bat (105 wRC+) and has played all over the infield while being just 22 in AA. He projects as a utility player like Castro, but one that's better against RHP than LHP.

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · Jul 18

King was the Jays' 3rd round pick last year, and he's been elite in his pro debut. In 24 IP in the FCL he has a 1.13 ERA and a 1.55 FIP at 18 years old, and is already in Single-A. He reminds me a lot of former top prospect Kyle Harrison, but since King is far away from MLB, anything can happen.

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · Jul 18

After looking through the Jays' farm system, here's the two I picked:

1. Johnny King - 40+ FV LHP ($3.3M SV)
2. Eddinson Paulino - 40 FV LHB ($2.2M SV)

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · Jul 18

Recently, @lancebroz.bsky.social posted a video on realistic trade packages, where he explained in-depth how teams value players. Using his methodology, Castro is worth about $4.3M in surplus value. Since the Jays will have to overpay, two prospects in the 40-45 FV tier should be more than enough.

REALISTIC Trade Deadline Packages

YouTube video by Lance Brozdowski

youtu.be

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · Jul 18

With Willi Castro in the lineup for Nathan Lukes, the Jays become one of the best in baseball vs LHP:

So, what would it take to acquire Willi Castro in a trade?

Jays lineup vs LHP with Willi Castro. Average slash line: .274/.347/.458/.805 (.352 xwOBA).

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · Jul 18

His .330 xwOBA on the year is about average, but he has large platoon splits: it's a .310 xwOBA vs RHP and a .380 xwOBA vs LHP. This is due to a large difference in bat speed; as a lefty he has a 70.3 mph bat speed, but as a righty that jumps up to 74.0 mph.

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · Jul 18

There's a player on the market that fits all of those needs: Willi Castro. Castro is a switch-hitting utility player on the sub-.500 Twins. He's on an expiring contract, so he'll be available. He even wore the trans pride flag as face paint during Pride month. What's there not to love?

Luke O'Neil @lukeoneil47.bsky.social · Jun 7

The Twins' Willi Castro yesterday with the trans flag eye black.

Willi Castro trans eyeblack https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/1l5q88g/willi_castro_wearing_a_trans_pride_flag_as/

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · Jul 18

This lineup is good, but there's still a few holes. Giménez, Lukes, and Schneider are all below average vs LHP, Lukes being the worst of the bunch. An upgrade doesn't have to be at LF since Schneider can play there, but someone that can play 2B, LF, and/or RF (moving Springer to DH) would be a plus.

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · Jul 18

All of a sudden, the lineup goes from one of the best in baseball to one that's below average. A lot of this can be solved internally, with a few platoon substitutions (Clement for Barger, Straw for Varsho, Schneider for Wagner), which can take it from below average to above average:

Jays lineup vs LHP after substitutions. Average slash line: .263/.343/.433/.776 (.342 xwOBA).

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · Jul 18

Now, let's look at the same lineup vs LHP:

Jays lineup vs LHP. Average slash line: .235/.310/.366/.676 (.302 xwOBA).

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · Jul 18

This lineup is elite. As a team, the Jays have a .343 xwOBA vs RHP, which is 5th in all of baseball, only behind the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, and Cubs. Every hitter in the lineup is either average or better vs RHP, and 6 hitters have an xwOBA of .350 or better. Evidently, there's no issues here.

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · Jul 18

Let's start with the current lineup vs RHP, with Daulton Varsho as he's currently on a rehab assignment and will be returning soon (the average slash line is the mean of the 9 hitters in the lineup):

Jays lineup vs RHP. Average slash line: .290/.358/.492/.850 (.368 xwOBA).

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · Jul 18

To evaluate the current offence for the rest of the season, I'm going to use each player's expected stats from this season, which are more predictive than the player's current stats as they look at each hit's launch angle and exit velocity to create an average value for each and every batted ball.

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · Jul 18

🧵 Since the Jays are leading the AL East and the trade deadline is a couple weeks away, the Jays are without a doubt looking to add. But what do they need? The rotation needs an ace, and every team could use a bullpen arm, but I believe the lineup could use an addition as well. Here's why:

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King Raj @rajmehta.ca · Jul 18

I know, just giving my two cents. I’m impressed by both for different reasons, so it’s hard for me to say which one I’d be more impressed by.

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