King Raj
@rajmehta.ca
Baseball writer & analyst for Prospects Live. Creator of stats such as rajWAR, bFIP, and more. Jays fan.
Jacob Wilson’s MLB career so far is similar to what Lawrence Butler’s looked like last year in terms of value:
Butler at 22 (‘23): 42 G, -0.2 fWAR, -0.5 bWAR
Butler at 23 (‘24): 125 G, 3.1 fWAR, 3.0 bWAR
Wilson at 22 (‘24): 28 G, 0.0 fWAR, -0.2 bWAR
Wilson at 23 (‘25): 125 G, 3.5 fWAR, 3.0 bWAR
Butler at 22 (‘23): 42 G, -0.2 fWAR, -0.5 bWAR
Butler at 23 (‘24): 125 G, 3.1 fWAR, 3.0 bWAR
Wilson at 22 (‘24): 28 G, 0.0 fWAR, -0.2 bWAR
Wilson at 23 (‘25): 125 G, 3.5 fWAR, 3.0 bWAR
January 30, 2026 at 9:21 PM
Jacob Wilson’s MLB career so far is similar to what Lawrence Butler’s looked like last year in terms of value:
Butler at 22 (‘23): 42 G, -0.2 fWAR, -0.5 bWAR
Butler at 23 (‘24): 125 G, 3.1 fWAR, 3.0 bWAR
Wilson at 22 (‘24): 28 G, 0.0 fWAR, -0.2 bWAR
Wilson at 23 (‘25): 125 G, 3.5 fWAR, 3.0 bWAR
Butler at 22 (‘23): 42 G, -0.2 fWAR, -0.5 bWAR
Butler at 23 (‘24): 125 G, 3.1 fWAR, 3.0 bWAR
Wilson at 22 (‘24): 28 G, 0.0 fWAR, -0.2 bWAR
Wilson at 23 (‘25): 125 G, 3.5 fWAR, 3.0 bWAR
Kai-Wei Teng’s 3.46 bFIP at the PCL was the best in the PCL among pitchers with 50+ IP. The number may not be flashy, but given the high run environment (avg ERA in the PCL was 5.45), his 63 bFIP- is elite. Remains to be seen if he can stretch out as a starter, but it’s a good get for the #Astros.
Sources: the Astros and Giants are nearing a trade that would send right-hander Kai-Wei Teng to Houston in exchange for catching prospect Jancel Villareal. Teng is an optionable swingman who can pitch out of the rotation or within a bullpen that could use more right-handed depth
January 30, 2026 at 1:07 AM
Kai-Wei Teng’s 3.46 bFIP at the PCL was the best in the PCL among pitchers with 50+ IP. The number may not be flashy, but given the high run environment (avg ERA in the PCL was 5.45), his 63 bFIP- is elite. Remains to be seen if he can stretch out as a starter, but it’s a good get for the #Astros.
🧵 The #Rockies aren’t done yet! After trading Angel Chivilli to the Yankees and designating Yanquiel Fernandez for assignment, they’ve cleared out the 40-man space to acquire 2B Edouard Julien and RP Pierson Ohl from the #Twins in exchange for SP Jace Kaminska and cash.
Let’s start with Julien:
Let’s start with Julien:
January 28, 2026 at 7:36 PM
Similar list but for RP — number of pitchers by 2026 team with 20+ IP, <5 GS & bFIP- under 100 in 2025:
9 - MIL, TBR
8 - BAL
7 - HOU, LAD, PHI, TOR
6 - ARI, ATL, CHC, CIN, CLE, NYY, SDP, SEA
5 - SFG
4 - ATH, BOS, CHW, DET, KCR, MIA, NYM, PIT, STL
3 - COL, LAA, TEX
2 - MIN, WSN
9 - MIL, TBR
8 - BAL
7 - HOU, LAD, PHI, TOR
6 - ARI, ATL, CHC, CIN, CLE, NYY, SDP, SEA
5 - SFG
4 - ATH, BOS, CHW, DET, KCR, MIA, NYM, PIT, STL
3 - COL, LAA, TEX
2 - MIN, WSN
Number of pitchers by 2026 team with 5+ GS & an above-average bFIP (bFIP- under 100) in 2025:
6 - KCR, LAD, NYM, TEX
5 - BOS, DET, HOU, MIL, NYY
4 - ARI, BAL, CHC, CIN, MIN, PHI, PIT, SFG
3 - ATH, ATL, CLE, MIA, SDP, SEA, TBR, TOR, WSN
2 - CHW, COL
1 - STL
0 - LAA
6 - KCR, LAD, NYM, TEX
5 - BOS, DET, HOU, MIL, NYY
4 - ARI, BAL, CHC, CIN, MIN, PHI, PIT, SFG
3 - ATH, ATL, CLE, MIA, SDP, SEA, TBR, TOR, WSN
2 - CHW, COL
1 - STL
0 - LAA
January 28, 2026 at 4:07 PM
Similar list but for RP — number of pitchers by 2026 team with 20+ IP, <5 GS & bFIP- under 100 in 2025:
9 - MIL, TBR
8 - BAL
7 - HOU, LAD, PHI, TOR
6 - ARI, ATL, CHC, CIN, CLE, NYY, SDP, SEA
5 - SFG
4 - ATH, BOS, CHW, DET, KCR, MIA, NYM, PIT, STL
3 - COL, LAA, TEX
2 - MIN, WSN
9 - MIL, TBR
8 - BAL
7 - HOU, LAD, PHI, TOR
6 - ARI, ATL, CHC, CIN, CLE, NYY, SDP, SEA
5 - SFG
4 - ATH, BOS, CHW, DET, KCR, MIA, NYM, PIT, STL
3 - COL, LAA, TEX
2 - MIN, WSN
Number of pitchers by 2026 team with 5+ GS & an above-average bFIP (bFIP- under 100) in 2025:
6 - KCR, LAD, NYM, TEX
5 - BOS, DET, HOU, MIL, NYY
4 - ARI, BAL, CHC, CIN, MIN, PHI, PIT, SFG
3 - ATH, ATL, CLE, MIA, SDP, SEA, TBR, TOR, WSN
2 - CHW, COL
1 - STL
0 - LAA
6 - KCR, LAD, NYM, TEX
5 - BOS, DET, HOU, MIL, NYY
4 - ARI, BAL, CHC, CIN, MIN, PHI, PIT, SFG
3 - ATH, ATL, CLE, MIA, SDP, SEA, TBR, TOR, WSN
2 - CHW, COL
1 - STL
0 - LAA
January 28, 2026 at 5:31 AM
Number of pitchers by 2026 team with 5+ GS & an above-average bFIP (bFIP- under 100) in 2025:
6 - KCR, LAD, NYM, TEX
5 - BOS, DET, HOU, MIL, NYY
4 - ARI, BAL, CHC, CIN, MIN, PHI, PIT, SFG
3 - ATH, ATL, CLE, MIA, SDP, SEA, TBR, TOR, WSN
2 - CHW, COL
1 - STL
0 - LAA
6 - KCR, LAD, NYM, TEX
5 - BOS, DET, HOU, MIL, NYY
4 - ARI, BAL, CHC, CIN, MIN, PHI, PIT, SFG
3 - ATH, ATL, CLE, MIA, SDP, SEA, TBR, TOR, WSN
2 - CHW, COL
1 - STL
0 - LAA
I could see Ohl getting claimed: was great in the minors in bulk relief (2.40 ERA, 2.48 FIP in 71.1 IP), backed up by an elite 86:11 K:BB. Wasn't great in MLB (5.10 ERA), but his 4.34 bFIP is near average, and he has value as an optionable RP. Mostly FB/CH, but has 7 pitches including a knuckleball.
Twins have made the Victor Caratini and Taylor Rogers signings official.
Jhonny Pereda and Pierson Ohl were designated for assignment to make room on the 40-man roster.
Jhonny Pereda and Pierson Ohl were designated for assignment to make room on the 40-man roster.
January 24, 2026 at 1:52 AM
I could see Ohl getting claimed: was great in the minors in bulk relief (2.40 ERA, 2.48 FIP in 71.1 IP), backed up by an elite 86:11 K:BB. Wasn't great in MLB (5.10 ERA), but his 4.34 bFIP is near average, and he has value as an optionable RP. Mostly FB/CH, but has 7 pitches including a knuckleball.
Right now, the Dodgers are the best team in baseball by a mile. If that sticks by midseason (ex. LAD on a 110 win pace, nobody else over 100), I wonder how that affects the trade deadline. With that plus a potential lockout looming, I think we could see a buyer’s market this deadline.
January 23, 2026 at 8:44 PM
Right now, the Dodgers are the best team in baseball by a mile. If that sticks by midseason (ex. LAD on a 110 win pace, nobody else over 100), I wonder how that affects the trade deadline. With that plus a potential lockout looming, I think we could see a buyer’s market this deadline.
🧵 Out of nowhere, the #Rangers have acquired SP MacKenzie Gore from the #Nationals, in exchange for a massive five-prospect package: SS Gavin Fien, SP Alejandro Rosario, SS Devin Fitz-Gerald, 1B Abimelec Ortiz, and OF Yeremy Cabrera. What a haul for one of the best SPs on the trade market.
January 22, 2026 at 9:41 PM
🧵 Out of nowhere, the #Rangers have acquired SP MacKenzie Gore from the #Nationals, in exchange for a massive five-prospect package: SS Gavin Fien, SP Alejandro Rosario, SS Devin Fitz-Gerald, 1B Abimelec Ortiz, and OF Yeremy Cabrera. What a haul for one of the best SPs on the trade market.
🧵 The #Mets aren't done dealing! They just acquired SP Freddy Peralta from the #Brewers, along with SP/RP Tobias Myers, in exchange for two top-100 prospects in IF/OF Jett Williams and SP Brandon Sproat. The Mets needed some dependability at the top of their rotation, and Peralta is that guy.
January 22, 2026 at 4:20 AM
🧵 After a long standoff between the two sides, the #Yankees have finally re-signed Cody Bellinger, with the deal being for 5 years and $162.5M, with opt outs after years 2 & 3. Bellinger was reportedly looking for a 7-year deal, but he didn't get one; instead he'll settle for 5 back with the Yanks.
January 21, 2026 at 7:02 PM
🧵 After a long standoff between the two sides, the #Yankees have finally re-signed Cody Bellinger, with the deal being for 5 years and $162.5M, with opt outs after years 2 & 3. Bellinger was reportedly looking for a 7-year deal, but he didn't get one; instead he'll settle for 5 back with the Yanks.
It was reported that #Giants IF Casey Schmitt had wrist surgery this offseason for an injury suffered in June, likely this HBP on June 25th that kept him out for two weeks.
Before 6/25: .284/.364/.453, 133 wRC+
After return: .220/.280/.383, 84 wRC+
Bat speed went down too (72.4 mph -> 71.4 mph).
Before 6/25: .284/.364/.453, 133 wRC+
After return: .220/.280/.383, 84 wRC+
Bat speed went down too (72.4 mph -> 71.4 mph).
January 17, 2026 at 10:14 PM
It was reported that #Giants IF Casey Schmitt had wrist surgery this offseason for an injury suffered in June, likely this HBP on June 25th that kept him out for two weeks.
Before 6/25: .284/.364/.453, 133 wRC+
After return: .220/.280/.383, 84 wRC+
Bat speed went down too (72.4 mph -> 71.4 mph).
Before 6/25: .284/.364/.453, 133 wRC+
After return: .220/.280/.383, 84 wRC+
Bat speed went down too (72.4 mph -> 71.4 mph).
🧵 After missing out on Kyle Tucker, the #Mets pivot to signing Bo Bichette on a short-term deal at 3 years, $126 million, with opt outs after each year. The Mets already have Francisco Lindor at SS and traded for Marcus Semien to play 2B, so Bo Bichette is expected to play 3B every day.
January 16, 2026 at 5:54 PM
🧵 After missing out on Kyle Tucker, the #Mets pivot to signing Bo Bichette on a short-term deal at 3 years, $126 million, with opt outs after each year. The Mets already have Francisco Lindor at SS and traded for Marcus Semien to play 2B, so Bo Bichette is expected to play 3B every day.
🧵 This got lost in the shuffle of the Kyle Tucker signing, but another OF is heading to LA; Josh Lowe is headed to the Angels via a three-team trade. The breakdown is as follows:
#Angels receive: Josh Lowe (TBR)
#Rays receive: Gavin Lux (CIN), Chris Clark (LAA)
#Reds receive: Brock Burke (LAA)
#Angels receive: Josh Lowe (TBR)
#Rays receive: Gavin Lux (CIN), Chris Clark (LAA)
#Reds receive: Brock Burke (LAA)
January 16, 2026 at 5:08 AM
🧵 🚨 KYLE TUCKER HAS SIGNED WITH THE LOS ANGELES #DODGERS.
Four years, $240 million, with opt outs after year 2 and year 3.
The best team in baseball only gets better, and they get the best free agent on the market in Kyle Tucker for solely his prime years.
Four years, $240 million, with opt outs after year 2 and year 3.
The best team in baseball only gets better, and they get the best free agent on the market in Kyle Tucker for solely his prime years.
January 16, 2026 at 3:34 AM
🧵 🚨 KYLE TUCKER HAS SIGNED WITH THE LOS ANGELES #DODGERS.
Four years, $240 million, with opt outs after year 2 and year 3.
The best team in baseball only gets better, and they get the best free agent on the market in Kyle Tucker for solely his prime years.
Four years, $240 million, with opt outs after year 2 and year 3.
The best team in baseball only gets better, and they get the best free agent on the market in Kyle Tucker for solely his prime years.
🧵 Even though the #RedSox were active on the trade market, they received some flak as they were the last team to sign an MLB free agent… until now. Ranger Suarez is now a member of the Red Sox after signing a 5-year, $130M deal with the club.
January 14, 2026 at 8:04 PM
🧵 Even though the #RedSox were active on the trade market, they received some flak as they were the last team to sign an MLB free agent… until now. Ranger Suarez is now a member of the Red Sox after signing a 5-year, $130M deal with the club.
🧵 The #Marlins have dealt from their big league rotation again, this time sending over SP Ryan Weathers to the #Yankees in exchange for four prospects: OF Brendan Jones, OF Dillon Lewis, 1B/3B Dylan Jasso, and 3B/SS Juan Matheus.
Let's start with the headliner in Ryan Weathers:
Let's start with the headliner in Ryan Weathers:
January 14, 2026 at 2:04 AM
🧵 The #Cardinals finally found a suitor for Nolan Arenado, as they moved him to the #DBacks with cash in exchange for pitching prospect Jack Martinez. They're sending lots of cash to get it done — $22M in 2026, $9M in 2027 — leaving the DBacks on the hook for just $5M in 2026 and $6M in 2027.
January 13, 2026 at 6:27 PM
🧵 The #Cardinals finally found a suitor for Nolan Arenado, as they moved him to the #DBacks with cash in exchange for pitching prospect Jack Martinez. They're sending lots of cash to get it done — $22M in 2026, $9M in 2027 — leaving the DBacks on the hook for just $5M in 2026 and $6M in 2027.
🧵 One of the biggest fish on the free agent market is now off the board: after trading for Edward Cabrera, the #Cubs strike again by signing Alex Bregman to a massive 5-year, $175M deal.
This deal has interesting implications for the Cubs, but let’s start with Bregman:
This deal has interesting implications for the Cubs, but let’s start with Bregman:
January 11, 2026 at 5:37 AM
🧵 One of the biggest fish on the free agent market is now off the board: after trading for Edward Cabrera, the #Cubs strike again by signing Alex Bregman to a massive 5-year, $175M deal.
This deal has interesting implications for the Cubs, but let’s start with Bregman:
This deal has interesting implications for the Cubs, but let’s start with Bregman:
🧵 It took a while, but it's finally official! The #Cubs have traded for SP Edward Cabrera, and in exchange the #Marlins get a trio of hitting prospects in OF Owen Caissie, SS Cristian Hernandez, and 1B/3B Edgardo De Leon.
Here's a quick breakdown on Cabrera, along with the 3 bats heading to Miami:
Here's a quick breakdown on Cabrera, along with the 3 bats heading to Miami:
January 7, 2026 at 10:17 PM
4 years, $60M for Okamoto per reports. The posting fee would be $10.875M, so the overall expenditure for the Jays is ~$71M. AAV with the fee is ~$17.7M, about $1M less than what Naylor got from the M’s (5yr/$92.5M; $18.5M). Naylor got an extra year, but is also a year younger.
🧵 Another big domino falls to Toronto: the #BlueJays just signed 1B/3B Kazuma Okamoto, with the terms still TBA. The Jays have added a lot this offseason, but primarily on the pitching front: Dylan Cease, Cody Ponce, & Tyler Rogers. Okamoto is the first big bat they've added, and will slot in at 3B.
January 3, 2026 at 8:42 PM
4 years, $60M for Okamoto per reports. The posting fee would be $10.875M, so the overall expenditure for the Jays is ~$71M. AAV with the fee is ~$17.7M, about $1M less than what Naylor got from the M’s (5yr/$92.5M; $18.5M). Naylor got an extra year, but is also a year younger.
🧵 Another big domino falls to Toronto: the #BlueJays just signed 1B/3B Kazuma Okamoto, with the terms still TBA. The Jays have added a lot this offseason, but primarily on the pitching front: Dylan Cease, Cody Ponce, & Tyler Rogers. Okamoto is the first big bat they've added, and will slot in at 3B.
January 3, 2026 at 7:38 PM
🧵 Another big domino falls to Toronto: the #BlueJays just signed 1B/3B Kazuma Okamoto, with the terms still TBA. The Jays have added a lot this offseason, but primarily on the pitching front: Dylan Cease, Cody Ponce, & Tyler Rogers. Okamoto is the first big bat they've added, and will slot in at 3B.
Working on a quality start estimator for fantasy baseball projections. It’s not perfect, but based on games started, innings pitched, and ERA:
Luckiest pitcher in 2025: Framber Valdez (20 QS, 14.1 xQS)
Unluckiest pitcher in 2025: Cade Horton (5 QS, 9.7 xQS)
Luckiest pitcher in 2025: Framber Valdez (20 QS, 14.1 xQS)
Unluckiest pitcher in 2025: Cade Horton (5 QS, 9.7 xQS)
January 3, 2026 at 4:42 PM
Working on a quality start estimator for fantasy baseball projections. It’s not perfect, but based on games started, innings pitched, and ERA:
Luckiest pitcher in 2025: Framber Valdez (20 QS, 14.1 xQS)
Unluckiest pitcher in 2025: Cade Horton (5 QS, 9.7 xQS)
Luckiest pitcher in 2025: Framber Valdez (20 QS, 14.1 xQS)
Unluckiest pitcher in 2025: Cade Horton (5 QS, 9.7 xQS)
2026 starts off on a high note! Just hit 1000 followers… can’t believe I got this far. 496 posts of almost exclusively baseball analysis got me to this point, and I’m not stopping now; many more will come!
Thank you all for the support, and hope you all have a fantastic 2026!
Thank you all for the support, and hope you all have a fantastic 2026!
January 3, 2026 at 3:09 AM
2026 starts off on a high note! Just hit 1000 followers… can’t believe I got this far. 496 posts of almost exclusively baseball analysis got me to this point, and I’m not stopping now; many more will come!
Thank you all for the support, and hope you all have a fantastic 2026!
Thank you all for the support, and hope you all have a fantastic 2026!