King Raj
@rajmehta.ca
Baseball writer & analyst for Prospects Live. Creator of stats such as rajWAR, bFIP, and more.
Yaz seems like a weird fit at first for the #Braves, since their outfield is already set with Profar, Harris, and Acuña. Acuña could use some DH days, but you also want to give the DH to one of Murphy/Baldwin. However:
vs RHP:
Yaz: 126 wRC+
Murphy: 83 wRC+
vs LHP:
Yaz: 20 wRC+
Murphy: 123 wRC+
vs RHP:
Yaz: 126 wRC+
Murphy: 83 wRC+
vs LHP:
Yaz: 20 wRC+
Murphy: 123 wRC+
December 11, 2025 at 1:34 AM
Yaz seems like a weird fit at first for the #Braves, since their outfield is already set with Profar, Harris, and Acuña. Acuña could use some DH days, but you also want to give the DH to one of Murphy/Baldwin. However:
vs RHP:
Yaz: 126 wRC+
Murphy: 83 wRC+
vs LHP:
Yaz: 20 wRC+
Murphy: 123 wRC+
vs RHP:
Yaz: 126 wRC+
Murphy: 83 wRC+
vs LHP:
Yaz: 20 wRC+
Murphy: 123 wRC+
🧵 Big fan of the #BlueJays taking Spencer Miles in the Rule 5 draft from the #Giants. Didn't write about him in my Rule 5 preview article, as I didn't expect him to get taken with him only having 14.2 professional innings and not having pitched above Single-A due to various injuries.
December 10, 2025 at 8:44 PM
The 2025 #MLB Rule 5 Draft is taking place on December 10th at 2 PM ET; less than 24 hours from now.
Here's 20 names I think could get taken in the draft, along with their projected MLB roles for whoever takes them:
Here's 20 names I think could get taken in the draft, along with their projected MLB roles for whoever takes them:
Twenty Names to Keep an Eye On for the 2025 Rule 5 Draft
Breakdowns of 20 players that could be taken in the 2025 Rule 5 Draft, along with their projected role for whichever team takes them.
medium.com
December 9, 2025 at 8:32 PM
The 2025 #MLB Rule 5 Draft is taking place on December 10th at 2 PM ET; less than 24 hours from now.
Here's 20 names I think could get taken in the draft, along with their projected MLB roles for whoever takes them:
Here's 20 names I think could get taken in the draft, along with their projected MLB roles for whoever takes them:
Edwin Díaz catches a lot of flak for being up and down year to year, but his ERA estimators are a lot more consistent. His bFIP by year since joining the Mets:
2019: 3.25
2020: 2.40
2021: 2.87
2022: 0.78
2024: 2.31
2025: 1.99
Great job by the #Dodgers to get the best RP on the market at 3yr/$69M.
2019: 3.25
2020: 2.40
2021: 2.87
2022: 0.78
2024: 2.31
2025: 1.99
Great job by the #Dodgers to get the best RP on the market at 3yr/$69M.
December 9, 2025 at 5:32 PM
Edwin Díaz catches a lot of flak for being up and down year to year, but his ERA estimators are a lot more consistent. His bFIP by year since joining the Mets:
2019: 3.25
2020: 2.40
2021: 2.87
2022: 0.78
2024: 2.31
2025: 1.99
Great job by the #Dodgers to get the best RP on the market at 3yr/$69M.
2019: 3.25
2020: 2.40
2021: 2.87
2022: 0.78
2024: 2.31
2025: 1.99
Great job by the #Dodgers to get the best RP on the market at 3yr/$69M.
#DBacks sign Michael Soroka to a 1-year, $7.5M deal.
On the surface, he’s a two-pitch pitcher that had a 4.52 ERA in 89.2 IP, but he had good peripherals with a 3.71 bFIP (3.57 w/ WSN). I think he needs a deeper arsenal to be more effective as a starter, but the fastball/slurve combo has worked.
On the surface, he’s a two-pitch pitcher that had a 4.52 ERA in 89.2 IP, but he had good peripherals with a 3.71 bFIP (3.57 w/ WSN). I think he needs a deeper arsenal to be more effective as a starter, but the fastball/slurve combo has worked.
December 8, 2025 at 3:21 PM
#DBacks sign Michael Soroka to a 1-year, $7.5M deal.
On the surface, he’s a two-pitch pitcher that had a 4.52 ERA in 89.2 IP, but he had good peripherals with a 3.71 bFIP (3.57 w/ WSN). I think he needs a deeper arsenal to be more effective as a starter, but the fastball/slurve combo has worked.
On the surface, he’s a two-pitch pitcher that had a 4.52 ERA in 89.2 IP, but he had good peripherals with a 3.71 bFIP (3.57 w/ WSN). I think he needs a deeper arsenal to be more effective as a starter, but the fastball/slurve combo has worked.
🧵 Fun trade just went down! #Mariners get RP Jose Ferrer from the #Nationals in exchange for C Harry Ford and SP Isaac Lyon.
Quick thread breaking down all the players moving around:
Quick thread breaking down all the players moving around:
December 6, 2025 at 10:06 PM
🧵 Fun trade just went down! #Mariners get RP Jose Ferrer from the #Nationals in exchange for C Harry Ford and SP Isaac Lyon.
Quick thread breaking down all the players moving around:
Quick thread breaking down all the players moving around:
I'm not sure if I should be amazed or ashamed that I've visited @fangraphs.com this much
December 5, 2025 at 6:54 PM
I'm not sure if I should be amazed or ashamed that I've visited @fangraphs.com this much
🧵 #BlueJays sign Cody Ponce for 3 years, $30M. Was the KBO MVP in 2025, with a 1.89 ERA, 2.15 FIP in 180.2 IP. Good get at a great cost, has mid-rotation upside but will likely slot in behind Gausman, Cease, Bieber, and possibly Yesavage too.
December 2, 2025 at 11:57 PM
🧵 #BlueJays sign Cody Ponce for 3 years, $30M. Was the KBO MVP in 2025, with a 1.89 ERA, 2.15 FIP in 180.2 IP. Good get at a great cost, has mid-rotation upside but will likely slot in behind Gausman, Cease, Bieber, and possibly Yesavage too.
Good get for the #Mets. Despite the poor 4.79 ERA, Devin Williams posted great peripheral numbers (2.68 FIP, 2.95 xFIP, 3.07 bFIP) that are in line with career norms, and should bounce back in ‘26. He may not be the sub-2 ERA guy he was in 22-24, but he’s still a great closer if Díaz goes elsewhere.
BREAKING: Devin Williams to the Mets
December 2, 2025 at 2:46 AM
Good get for the #Mets. Despite the poor 4.79 ERA, Devin Williams posted great peripheral numbers (2.68 FIP, 2.95 xFIP, 3.07 bFIP) that are in line with career norms, and should bounce back in ‘26. He may not be the sub-2 ERA guy he was in 22-24, but he’s still a great closer if Díaz goes elsewhere.
The #BlueJays just signed Dylan Cease, and as a Jays fan I'm a big fan of the move!
Dylan Cease's 3.45 bFIP was 2nd among FA SPs (1st: Ranger Suárez, 3.14). He's durable too; he leads all of MLB in starts since 2020 (174). The Jays care about that; Berríos and Gausman both ranked in the top 5.
Dylan Cease's 3.45 bFIP was 2nd among FA SPs (1st: Ranger Suárez, 3.14). He's durable too; he leads all of MLB in starts since 2020 (174). The Jays care about that; Berríos and Gausman both ranked in the top 5.
November 27, 2025 at 12:14 AM
The #BlueJays just signed Dylan Cease, and as a Jays fan I'm a big fan of the move!
Dylan Cease's 3.45 bFIP was 2nd among FA SPs (1st: Ranger Suárez, 3.14). He's durable too; he leads all of MLB in starts since 2020 (174). The Jays care about that; Berríos and Gausman both ranked in the top 5.
Dylan Cease's 3.45 bFIP was 2nd among FA SPs (1st: Ranger Suárez, 3.14). He's durable too; he leads all of MLB in starts since 2020 (174). The Jays care about that; Berríos and Gausman both ranked in the top 5.
🧵 #RedSox get Sonny Gray & cash, #Cardinals get Brandon Clarke & Richard Fitts.
Big fan of Gray, he had good peripherals despite the rough 4.28 ERA (3.39 FIP, 3.50 bFIP), and he has a track record of success. Also averaged 177 IP over the past three years. Should easily slot in at 2 for Boston.
Big fan of Gray, he had good peripherals despite the rough 4.28 ERA (3.39 FIP, 3.50 bFIP), and he has a track record of success. Also averaged 177 IP over the past three years. Should easily slot in at 2 for Boston.
November 25, 2025 at 5:18 PM
🧵 #RedSox get Sonny Gray & cash, #Cardinals get Brandon Clarke & Richard Fitts.
Big fan of Gray, he had good peripherals despite the rough 4.28 ERA (3.39 FIP, 3.50 bFIP), and he has a track record of success. Also averaged 177 IP over the past three years. Should easily slot in at 2 for Boston.
Big fan of Gray, he had good peripherals despite the rough 4.28 ERA (3.39 FIP, 3.50 bFIP), and he has a track record of success. Also averaged 177 IP over the past three years. Should easily slot in at 2 for Boston.
Something about Semien that could signal a bounce-back with the #Mets:
- He’s an extreme lift & pull hitter: 24.2% AirPull% w/ TEX (since ‘22), 10th in MLB min. 1500 BBE
- Hit 93 HR w/ TEX
- Would’ve hit 96 HR if all games were at TEX
- Would’ve hit *111* HR if all games were at NYM (~15% increase)
- He’s an extreme lift & pull hitter: 24.2% AirPull% w/ TEX (since ‘22), 10th in MLB min. 1500 BBE
- Hit 93 HR w/ TEX
- Would’ve hit 96 HR if all games were at TEX
- Would’ve hit *111* HR if all games were at NYM (~15% increase)
November 23, 2025 at 11:33 PM
Something about Semien that could signal a bounce-back with the #Mets:
- He’s an extreme lift & pull hitter: 24.2% AirPull% w/ TEX (since ‘22), 10th in MLB min. 1500 BBE
- Hit 93 HR w/ TEX
- Would’ve hit 96 HR if all games were at TEX
- Would’ve hit *111* HR if all games were at NYM (~15% increase)
- He’s an extreme lift & pull hitter: 24.2% AirPull% w/ TEX (since ‘22), 10th in MLB min. 1500 BBE
- Hit 93 HR w/ TEX
- Would’ve hit 96 HR if all games were at TEX
- Would’ve hit *111* HR if all games were at NYM (~15% increase)
#Mets get Marcus Semien, #Rangers get Brandon Nimmo
Semien is due for 3yr/$72M on his contract, while Nimmo is due for 5yr/$102.5M.
Rangers were looking to shed money, and they do so in the short term in exchange for a longer-term deal w/ Nimmo, who’s also younger + the better player this past yr.
Semien is due for 3yr/$72M on his contract, while Nimmo is due for 5yr/$102.5M.
Rangers were looking to shed money, and they do so in the short term in exchange for a longer-term deal w/ Nimmo, who’s also younger + the better player this past yr.
November 23, 2025 at 10:48 PM
The Mauricio Dubón for Nick Allen swap is a weird move for both sides (even weirder than the GrayRod/Ward swap). Don’t mind the #Astros moving Dubón, but they don’t need Allen when they already have enough infielders (unless they deal one of them later on). Would've rather asked for pitching.
November 20, 2025 at 3:17 AM
The Mauricio Dubón for Nick Allen swap is a weird move for both sides (even weirder than the GrayRod/Ward swap). Don’t mind the #Astros moving Dubón, but they don’t need Allen when they already have enough infielders (unless they deal one of them later on). Would've rather asked for pitching.
This has probably already been asked by somebody, but where does Taylor Ward fit into the lineup for the #Orioles? Colton Cowser is the only CF, so he’ll play every day. Beavers and O’Neill currently at the corners… do they platoon together at one corner to make way for Ward in the other?
November 19, 2025 at 4:09 AM
This has probably already been asked by somebody, but where does Taylor Ward fit into the lineup for the #Orioles? Colton Cowser is the only CF, so he’ll play every day. Beavers and O’Neill currently at the corners… do they platoon together at one corner to make way for Ward in the other?
The Los Angeles Dodgers have acquired the 2025 World Series trophy. Hearing reports that the Toronto Blue Jays were in the mix.
November 2, 2025 at 11:06 PM
The Los Angeles Dodgers have acquired the 2025 World Series trophy. Hearing reports that the Toronto Blue Jays were in the mix.
Ten Notable Non-Tender Candidates for the 2025-2026 Offseason
Ten Notable Non-Tender Candidates for the 2025-2026 Offseason
Raj Mehta looks at ten players who could be non-tendered this offseason and what that might mean for their value.
www.prospectslive.com
October 28, 2025 at 5:34 PM
Ten Notable Non-Tender Candidates for the 2025-2026 Offseason
Top 3 offenses in MLB this year, by wRC+:
1: Yankees - 119
T2: Mariners - 113
T2: Dodgers - 113
The Toronto Blue Jays have faced (or will face) all three this postseason.
1: Yankees - 119
T2: Mariners - 113
T2: Dodgers - 113
The Toronto Blue Jays have faced (or will face) all three this postseason.
October 21, 2025 at 10:06 PM
Top 3 offenses in MLB this year, by wRC+:
1: Yankees - 119
T2: Mariners - 113
T2: Dodgers - 113
The Toronto Blue Jays have faced (or will face) all three this postseason.
1: Yankees - 119
T2: Mariners - 113
T2: Dodgers - 113
The Toronto Blue Jays have faced (or will face) all three this postseason.
Shohei Ohtani throws five no-hit innings and hits his 50th home run of the year to establish the 50 HR/50 K club, as the Phillies defeat the Dodgers, 9-6.
September 17, 2025 at 5:20 AM
Shohei Ohtani throws five no-hit innings and hits his 50th home run of the year to establish the 50 HR/50 K club, as the Phillies defeat the Dodgers, 9-6.
Currently working on a projection system for fantasy baseball, right now it’s only looking at 2025 stats but I’m working on including 2024 & 2023 stats to better project for 2026. Here’s the top 10 hitters in projected value so far (assuming standard 5x5 league format):
September 9, 2025 at 9:58 PM
Currently working on a projection system for fantasy baseball, right now it’s only looking at 2025 stats but I’m working on including 2024 & 2023 stats to better project for 2026. Here’s the top 10 hitters in projected value so far (assuming standard 5x5 league format):
Top 10 players in #MLB by rajWAR through the end of August:
1. Aaron Judge - 7.9
2. Shohei Ohtani - 7.7
3. Fernando Tatis Jr. - 7.4
4. Kyle Tucker - 6.8
5. Geraldo Perdomo - 6.3
6. Kyle Schwarber - 6.3
7. Cal Raleigh - 6.2
8. Paul Skenes - 5.4
9. Zack Wheeler - 5.2
10. Nick Kurtz - 5.1
1. Aaron Judge - 7.9
2. Shohei Ohtani - 7.7
3. Fernando Tatis Jr. - 7.4
4. Kyle Tucker - 6.8
5. Geraldo Perdomo - 6.3
6. Kyle Schwarber - 6.3
7. Cal Raleigh - 6.2
8. Paul Skenes - 5.4
9. Zack Wheeler - 5.2
10. Nick Kurtz - 5.1
September 1, 2025 at 10:58 PM
Top 10 players in #MLB by rajWAR through the end of August:
1. Aaron Judge - 7.9
2. Shohei Ohtani - 7.7
3. Fernando Tatis Jr. - 7.4
4. Kyle Tucker - 6.8
5. Geraldo Perdomo - 6.3
6. Kyle Schwarber - 6.3
7. Cal Raleigh - 6.2
8. Paul Skenes - 5.4
9. Zack Wheeler - 5.2
10. Nick Kurtz - 5.1
1. Aaron Judge - 7.9
2. Shohei Ohtani - 7.7
3. Fernando Tatis Jr. - 7.4
4. Kyle Tucker - 6.8
5. Geraldo Perdomo - 6.3
6. Kyle Schwarber - 6.3
7. Cal Raleigh - 6.2
8. Paul Skenes - 5.4
9. Zack Wheeler - 5.2
10. Nick Kurtz - 5.1
I'm pleased to announce that I'm now a writer for Prospects Live! I'll mainly be writing about dynasty baseball and prospects, though I'll sometimes write about general baseball analysis.
I'm excited for the opportunity and can't wait to begin my journey working in baseball!
www.prospectslive.com
I'm excited for the opportunity and can't wait to begin my journey working in baseball!
www.prospectslive.com
August 28, 2025 at 2:24 PM
I'm pleased to announce that I'm now a writer for Prospects Live! I'll mainly be writing about dynasty baseball and prospects, though I'll sometimes write about general baseball analysis.
I'm excited for the opportunity and can't wait to begin my journey working in baseball!
www.prospectslive.com
I'm excited for the opportunity and can't wait to begin my journey working in baseball!
www.prospectslive.com
There is a non-zero chance that the Pirates DFA Andrew Heaney to make room for Bubba Chandler on the roster. Heaney has bonuses that start when he hits 120 IP, and he’s currently at 119.2 IP. They did something similar to Rowdy Tellez last year, who was 4 PA shy of a $200K bonus before he was DFA’d.
August 20, 2025 at 4:35 PM
There is a non-zero chance that the Pirates DFA Andrew Heaney to make room for Bubba Chandler on the roster. Heaney has bonuses that start when he hits 120 IP, and he’s currently at 119.2 IP. They did something similar to Rowdy Tellez last year, who was 4 PA shy of a $200K bonus before he was DFA’d.
🧵 Since the Jays are leading the AL East and the trade deadline is a couple weeks away, the Jays are without a doubt looking to add. But what do they need? The rotation needs an ace, and every team could use a bullpen arm, but I believe the lineup could use an addition as well. Here's why:
July 18, 2025 at 3:51 PM
🧵 Since the Jays are leading the AL East and the trade deadline is a couple weeks away, the Jays are without a doubt looking to add. But what do they need? The rotation needs an ace, and every team could use a bullpen arm, but I believe the lineup could use an addition as well. Here's why: