Author | Lightnews

realcdndude.bsky.social @realcdndude.bsky.social · 8h

This is welcome news, particularly for soybean farmers. Lets not get too excited, the 57% tarrifs are still in place. And all that has been done is a one year slight easing in a trade war. Farmers are smart, they know how their business was put at risk and could easily be impacted again.

Reposted

Joe Walsh @walshfreedom.bsky.social · 1d

Pay attention. White Christian Nationalism is the most animating force in my former political party.👇

79 130 500

realcdndude.bsky.social @realcdndude.bsky.social · 6d

Ranchers are reeling from a 2022 drought that forced massive herd culling. It was weather, not policy that has resulted in supply at a 75-year low and record prices. Trump importing cheap Argentine beef is not fixing the root issue—it's hurting US farmers waiting for new heifers to start producing.

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Reposted

The Onion @theonion.com · 8d

Diplomatic Talks Break Down Between Trump, Motion-Activated Ghost Decoration https://theonion.com/diplomatic-talks-break-down-between-trump-motion-activated-ghost-decoration/

27 310 2K

realcdndude.bsky.social @realcdndude.bsky.social · 8d

Trump says he'd donate the $230M suggesting he would get no personal benefit—misleading! Donating it lets him deduct it for taxes avoiding $85MM of federal taxes on his other income. Far more than he paid in legal costs. Net net he ends up saving more on taxes than he spent on defense.

realcdndude.bsky.social @realcdndude.bsky.social · 8d

6/6: Bottom Line: History rhymes. Dot-com's frenzy ended in a 65% Nasdaq plunge; an AI pop might spark recession due to broader reliance. Yet, like the internet, AI may deliver value after hype deflates. Investors, beware overvaluation—focus on real revenue! #AIBubbleThread

realcdndude.bsky.social @realcdndude.bsky.social · 8d

5/6: Long-Term: Post-dot-com, internet transformed the world despite the pain. AI could too, with a "J-curve" productivity boost by late 2020s. But overcapacity (dark fiber then, idle data centers now) and slowing progress raise doubts on superintelligence timelines. #FutureOfAI

1

realcdndude.bsky.social @realcdndude.bsky.social · 8d

4/6: The Crash: Dot-com burst saw Nasdaq drop 65% in a year, S&P -50%, bankruptcies galore (WorldCom). No full recession then, but AI's deeper economic tie could trigger one if it bursts—AI spending outpaced consumer GDP in H1 2025. Watch for rate hikes or unmet hype. #AIBurstRisk

1

realcdndude.bsky.social @realcdndude.bsky.social · 8d

3/6: Key Diffs: Dot-com had zero-revenue flops like Pets.com; AI has real income (Microsoft Azure $86B run rate). But investments are bigger—AI capex $560B since 2024 vs. telecom's adjusted $12B start. AI adoption faster, but 95% pilots fail to boost profits. #TechBubbles

1

realcdndude.bsky.social @realcdndude.bsky.social · 8d

2/6: Similarities: Both driven by tech optimism. Dot-com firms valued on traffic; AI on growth projections (e.g., OpenAI at $500B). Market concentration high—tech was 33% of S&P in 2000, now 34% with Magnificent Seven fueling 50%+ growth. Circular deals inflate values. #DotComVsAI

1

realcdndude.bsky.social @realcdndude.bsky.social · 8d

1/6: Echoes of the Dot-Com Bubble in AI? The late '90s telecom/internet hype led to massive overvaluation & infrastructure overbuild—like 80M miles of unused fiber. AI mirrors this with $2.9T in data centers projected by 2028. Speculation on future potential, not profits. #AIBubble

1

realcdndude.bsky.social @realcdndude.bsky.social · 8d

6/6: Bottom Line: History rhymes. Dot-com's frenzy ended in a 65% Nasdaq plunge; an AI pop might spark recession due to broader reliance. Yet, like the internet, AI may deliver value after hype deflates. Investors, beware overvaluation—focus on real revenue! #AIBubbleThread

realcdndude.bsky.social @realcdndude.bsky.social · 8d

5/6: Long-Term: Post-dot-com, internet transformed the world despite the pain. AI could too, with a "J-curve" productivity boost by late 2020s. But overcapacity (dark fiber then, idle data centers now) and slowing progress raise doubts on superintelligence timelines. #FutureOfAI

1

realcdndude.bsky.social @realcdndude.bsky.social · 8d

4/6: The Crash: Dot-com burst saw Nasdaq drop 65% in a year, S&P -50%, bankruptcies galore (WorldCom). No full recession then, but AI's deeper economic tie could trigger one if it bursts—AI spending outpaced consumer GDP in H1 2025. Watch for rate hikes or unmet hype. #AIBurstRisk

1

realcdndude.bsky.social @realcdndude.bsky.social · 8d

3/6: Key Diffs: Dot-com had zero-revenue flops like Pets.com; AI has real income (Microsoft Azure $86B run rate). But investments are bigger—AI capex $560B since 2024 vs. telecom's adjusted $12B start. AI adoption faster, but 95% pilots fail to boost profits. #TechBubbles

1

realcdndude.bsky.social @realcdndude.bsky.social · 8d

2/6: Similarities: Both driven by tech optimism. Dot-com firms valued on traffic; AI on growth projections (e.g., OpenAI at $500B). Market concentration high—tech was 33% of S&P in 2000, now 34% with Magnificent Seven fueling 50%+ growth. Circular deals inflate values. #DotComVsAI

1

realcdndude.bsky.social @realcdndude.bsky.social · 8d

1/6: Echoes of the Dot-Com Bubble in AI? The late '90s telecom/internet hype led to massive overvaluation & infrastructure overbuild—like 80M miles of unused fiber. AI mirrors this with $2.9T in data centers projected by 2028. Speculation on future potential, not profits. #AIBubble

1

realcdndude.bsky.social @realcdndude.bsky.social · 8d

6/6: Bottom Line: History rhymes. Dot-com's frenzy ended in a 65% Nasdaq plunge; an AI pop might spark recession due to broader reliance. Yet, like the internet, AI may deliver value after hype deflates. Investors, beware overvaluation—focus on real revenue! #AIBubbleThread

realcdndude.bsky.social @realcdndude.bsky.social · 8d

5/6: Long-Term: Post-dot-com, internet transformed the world despite the pain. AI could too, with a "J-curve" productivity boost by late 2020s. But overcapacity (dark fiber then, idle data centers now) and slowing progress raise doubts on superintelligence timelines. #FutureOfAI

1

realcdndude.bsky.social @realcdndude.bsky.social · 8d

4/6: The Crash: Dot-com burst saw Nasdaq drop 65% in a year, S&P -50%, bankruptcies galore (WorldCom). No full recession then, but AI's deeper economic tie could trigger one if it bursts—AI spending outpaced consumer GDP in H1 2025. Watch for rate hikes or unmet hype. #AIBurstRisk

1

realcdndude.bsky.social @realcdndude.bsky.social · 8d

3/6: Key Diffs: Dot-com had zero-revenue flops like Pets.com; AI has real income (Microsoft Azure $86B run rate). But investments are bigger—AI capex $560B since 2024 vs. telecom's adjusted $12B start. AI adoption faster, but 95% pilots fail to boost profits. #TechBubbles

1

realcdndude.bsky.social @realcdndude.bsky.social · 8d

2/6: Similarities: Both driven by tech optimism. Dot-com firms valued on traffic; AI on growth projections (e.g., OpenAI at $500B). Market concentration high—tech was 33% of S&P in 2000, now 34% with Magnificent Seven fueling 50%+ growth. Circular deals inflate values. #DotComVsAI

1

realcdndude.bsky.social @realcdndude.bsky.social · 8d

1/6: Echoes of the Dot-Com Bubble in AI? The late '90s telecom/internet hype led to massive overvaluation & infrastructure overbuild—like 80M miles of unused fiber. AI mirrors this with $2.9T in data centers projected by 2028. Speculation on future potential, not profits. #AIBubble

1

Reposted

The Wall Street Journal @wsj.com · 8d

The cost of health insurance rose steeply for a third year in a row in 2025, reaching just under $27,000 for a family plan, according to an annual survey.

The Average Cost of a Family Health Insurance Plan Is Now $27,000

Higher spending on chronic diseases, weight-loss drugs and hospital bills helped drive the increase.

on.wsj.com

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realcdndude.bsky.social @realcdndude.bsky.social · 8d

Trump says he'd donate the $230M suggesting he would get no personal benefit—misleading! Donating it lets him deduct it for taxes avoiding $85MM of federal taxes on his other income. Far more than he paid in legal costs. Net net he ends up saving on taxes.