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Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 23m

Plus with stuff out saying 50% of consumption is by top 10% (who are petty chipper) no surprise that few businesses are feeling it. Although banks & even some low end retailers have said even lower end is better than it was

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 26m

You know banks retail etc mostly not great at catching turning points. But data (mostly strong) doesn’t lie.

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Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 52m

$WFC & $JPM use 'consistent' & 'strong' to describe US consumer across incomes (though neither has subprime exposure). $WFC says watch what folks are doing, not what they say. Even Dimon admits bank is seeing strength even as he reiterates caution Q after Q. $XLF $XLY

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Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 1h

LVMH improvement foreshadowed by Cucinelli which pre-announced accelerating Q3, led by upside in US & Asia, while Europe slowed. Even into improvement, top tier luxury & brands with heat leading peers despite so much stacked outperformance. $LVMUY $HESAY $CFRUY $BURBY

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 1h

Amid constant sell-side & press gloom on luxury, shows you can never count it out. LVMH reports sharp Q3 improvement with all business lines better & fashion showing strongest improvement despite fatigue at both LV & Dior. 💪 $LVMUY $HESAY $CFRUY $PPRUY $EL $ULTA

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 1h

Trump's tariffs & FX moves have led to folks buying lmore at home. Luxury demand by locals strong everywhere at LVMH; US & China improved most in Q3. Europe softer as it bore brunt of € strength. Sephora another call-out. $ULTA $LVMUY $HESAY $CFRUY $EL

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 1h

Amid constant sell-side & press gloom on luxury, shows you can never count it out. LVMH reports sharp Q3 improvement with all business lines better & fashion showing strongest improvement despite fatigue at both LV & Dior. 💪 $LVMUY $HESAY $CFRUY $PPRUY $EL $ULTA

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 8h

Like $JPM, Citi saw a modest acceleration in card spend to +5% y/y. Echoing both $JPM & $WFC, modest uptick in early stage deliquencies so one to watch. But chareg-offs like peers down meaningfully - at $C back to Q4 '23 levels. $AXP $BAC $XLF $XLY

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Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 10h

Wells echoes US consumer strength seen at $JPM. Debit card spend +5%, credit cards +9%. Delinquencies did tick up modestly at $WFC too but charge-offs across consumer portfolio down sharply both y/y & vs QoQ, led by card. $C $AXP $V $MA $BAC $XLF $XLY

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Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 10h

No quality concerns over $JPM US consumer. Card loans slowing not blowing out. 30 day delinquencies up modestly from Q2 but within range of past 2 years. Chargeoffs down meaningfully both y/y & on prior Q. $BAC $C $AXP $V $MA $WFC $XLY $XLF $XRT

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Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 10h

$JPM first of major card issuers to report & paints strong picture of US consumer. Debit & card spend +9% y/y accelerating 200bp on prior Q & fastest pace in 2 years. Spend growth has been 7% or more for over a year. 🔥 $C $BAC $AXP $COF $V $MA $XLF $XLY

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Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 4d

$PEP CEO here lays bare challenges facing foods. Affordability (after huge Covid price rises mind) & online are obvious. But for first time, especially in the US, folks are checking out the miles & miles of lines about ingredients. $XLP $KO $GIS $CPB $KHC $MDLZ

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Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 4d

Obvious takeaway on Delta is more exposure to higher end vs peers is helping $DAL outperform. But note how much runway there is on corporate. Revenues back to 2019 levels but passenger numbers still only at 70%. $UAL $LUV $XLY $XLF $XLI $MAR $ABNB $AXP

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Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 4d

Here's Levi's on consumer resilience across globe. This Q marked a full year of high single digit growth, pretty darn good for a mature brand. Despite fears over Europe, business is healthy as it is in US, with strength by category and channel. $LEVI $XLY $XLF $WMT $AMZN $TGT

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Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 5d

Important to remember as Frito-Lay US continues to falter that Pepsico is a portfolio. International still drove solid numbers at $PEP. But between lapping mega Covid consumption, healthier eating & GLPs, Frito has work cut out even if not as bad as food peers. $KO $GIS $KHC $CPB $XLP

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Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 5d

$COST in latest reminder of US consumer strength: comp +5% on healthy traffic DESPITE 2 point headwind from hurricane-related buying last year. Non food up high single digit. #CostcoIsACult. $WMT $AMZN $WSM $ULTA $V $MA $AXP $LVMUY $XLY $XLF $XRT

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Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 5d

Nor is this just rear view mirror stuff. Delta says bookings have accelerated across all lines of business over the past 6 weeks. 💪 $XLI $XLF $XLY $DAL $UAL $AXP $V $MA $MAR $ABNB

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Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 5d

Delta Q demolishes all bear theses on travel (& so US discretionary economy). Premium at +9% accelerated 4 points vs Q2. Amex 200bp faster at +12%. Corporate +8% vs only low single digit growth in Q2 & outlook strong. Domestic passenger improving $DAL $UAL $AXP $V $MA $XLF $XLY

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Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 13d

Yes we hear that US tariffs are at record highs daily. But this chart from @FT really brings it home in terms of both quantum and history. 😮

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Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 13d

There you have it. Nike lowers margin view on tariffs (despite huge tailwind from lapping discounting) & China (15% of sales) overwhelming upside from 85% of rest of world. BTW China also beat forecast this Q! Sandbagging expectations at its finest. 🙄 $NKE $ADDYY $DKS