Rahul Sharma
@retailguru.bsky.social
Ex Global Consumer Fund Manager: 16 years at Citi, Alliance Capital in NYC, London, Singapore. Founder, Neev Capital. Strictly personal musings & not advice...
Best Buy seeing solid, consistent consumer with low price resistance to innovation. But $BBY also confirms how hard it is to differentiate & reliance on electronics majors to deliver (cyclical) growth. A very commoditised business so many years on. $AMZN $WMT $COST $AAPL
November 26, 2025 at 4:55 PM
Best Buy seeing solid, consistent consumer with low price resistance to innovation. But $BBY also confirms how hard it is to differentiate & reliance on electronics majors to deliver (cyclical) growth. A very commoditised business so many years on. $AMZN $WMT $COST $AAPL
Kohls says Sephora is comping at -1%. Disappointing given maturing stores & so much hype around brand. Suspect $ULTA will be better, although Estee/L’Oreal $AMZN push also not helping. $LRLCY $EL $LVMUY
November 26, 2025 at 4:28 PM
Kohls says Sephora is comping at -1%. Disappointing given maturing stores & so much hype around brand. Suspect $ULTA will be better, although Estee/L’Oreal $AMZN push also not helping. $LRLCY $EL $LVMUY
Much higher end customer but $URBN seeing similar strong traffic & strength in November. Though even this consumer responding to promos/events although delivering healthy margin. $KSS $DKS $WMT $WSM $XLF $XLY
November 26, 2025 at 4:15 PM
Much higher end customer but $URBN seeing similar strong traffic & strength in November. Though even this consumer responding to promos/events although delivering healthy margin. $KSS $DKS $WMT $WSM $XLF $XLY
Kohls says Back 2 School strong but October was strongest when comp turned positive, led by traffic. Remember these are lower/mid demos. $KSS also seeing improvement in credit card biz, among riskier consumer credit portfolios out there. $WMT $TJX $ROST $XLY $XLF
November 26, 2025 at 4:09 PM
Kohls says Back 2 School strong but October was strongest when comp turned positive, led by traffic. Remember these are lower/mid demos. $KSS also seeing improvement in credit card biz, among riskier consumer credit portfolios out there. $WMT $TJX $ROST $XLY $XLF
L'Oreal Luxe CEO updates on premium beauty trends in #1 & #2 markets. China recovery continues - after being down in H1, Oct/Nov +5%. US improving to +3% - $LRLCY believes consumers feeling gradually better, driving fragrance. Encouraging all round $EL $LVMUY $ULTA
November 26, 2025 at 1:15 PM
L'Oreal Luxe CEO updates on premium beauty trends in #1 & #2 markets. China recovery continues - after being down in H1, Oct/Nov +5%. US improving to +3% - $LRLCY believes consumers feeling gradually better, driving fragrance. Encouraging all round $EL $LVMUY $ULTA
Add $URBN to mix. Comp accelerated 300bp+ to 8%. Self help at Urban took comp to 13% but already-strong Anthro also +8%. Watch what consumers do NOT what they say 🔥 $WMT $AMZN $TJX $GAP $BBY $WSM $XLY $XLF $BAC $V $MA $JPM
November 25, 2025 at 10:01 PM
Add $URBN to mix. Comp accelerated 300bp+ to 8%. Self help at Urban took comp to 13% but already-strong Anthro also +8%. Watch what consumers do NOT what they say 🔥 $WMT $AMZN $TJX $GAP $BBY $WSM $XLY $XLF $BAC $V $MA $JPM
Amid all recession & consumer confidence on the floor talk, someone clearly forgot to pass on the memo to department store investors 🙂 $M $DDS $KSS $XLY $XRT $XLF
November 25, 2025 at 4:33 PM
Amid all recession & consumer confidence on the floor talk, someone clearly forgot to pass on the memo to department store investors 🙂 $M $DDS $KSS $XLY $XRT $XLF
Smucker 'pleased' with what most would call profitless prosperity. Double-digit coffee pricing (mostly tariffs) with profit -20% is what $SJM is praising. Each business bar coffee saw sales at least -5%. US foods sound more delusional by the day. $GIS $MDLZ $CPB $XLP
November 25, 2025 at 2:13 PM
Smucker 'pleased' with what most would call profitless prosperity. Double-digit coffee pricing (mostly tariffs) with profit -20% is what $SJM is praising. Each business bar coffee saw sales at least -5%. US foods sound more delusional by the day. $GIS $MDLZ $CPB $XLP
Usual suspects lowlights in US September retail sales report: sporting goods & department stores. But also home improvement retail, as borne out by recent Q at Depot. $HD $LOW $XLF $XLY $NKE $DKS $M $KSS
So this US retail sales report is for September. But for what it's worth, note categories growing healthy 5%+ all discretionary: clothing, electronics, cars, eating out and as usual, web. Not what you usually see when consumer is in funk. $XLY $XLF $AMZN $WMT $BBY $URBN $ANF
Large retailers reporting today: Kohls, Dicks, Best Buy & even A&F look more like $WMT $WSM & $TJX than $TGT or $HD. All saw Q3 sales acceleration at strong selling margin. And most of these do NOT skew to upper end. $XLY $XLF $JPM $BAC $V $AXP $MA
November 25, 2025 at 1:41 PM
Usual suspects lowlights in US September retail sales report: sporting goods & department stores. But also home improvement retail, as borne out by recent Q at Depot. $HD $LOW $XLF $XLY $NKE $DKS $M $KSS
So this US retail sales report is for September. But for what it's worth, note categories growing healthy 5%+ all discretionary: clothing, electronics, cars, eating out and as usual, web. Not what you usually see when consumer is in funk. $XLY $XLF $AMZN $WMT $BBY $URBN $ANF
Large retailers reporting today: Kohls, Dicks, Best Buy & even A&F look more like $WMT $WSM & $TJX than $TGT or $HD. All saw Q3 sales acceleration at strong selling margin. And most of these do NOT skew to upper end. $XLY $XLF $JPM $BAC $V $AXP $MA
On heels of $TJX, $WMT & $WSM (plus Mastercard, $JPM, $BAC), $GAP & Ross latest to confirm Q3 acceleration, strong full-price selling & start to Holiday. Old Navy a pointer even lower end not as stressed. Panic over restaurants clearly premature. $MCD $XLY $AMZN $XLF $ROST
November 25, 2025 at 1:38 PM
So this US retail sales report is for September. But for what it's worth, note categories growing healthy 5%+ all discretionary: clothing, electronics, cars, eating out and as usual, web. Not what you usually see when consumer is in funk. $XLY $XLF $AMZN $WMT $BBY $URBN $ANF
Best you can do with Best Buy is use it as broader indicator. Acceleration shows US consumer strength & iPhone upside. But still basically managing in category near-impossible to differentiate. Credit to $BBY that they still sport a decent margin. $AMZN $TGT $WMT $XLY
Large retailers reporting today: Kohls, Dicks, Best Buy & even A&F look more like $WMT $WSM & $TJX than $TGT or $HD. All saw Q3 sales acceleration at strong selling margin. And most of these do NOT skew to upper end. $XLY $XLF $JPM $BAC $V $AXP $MA
On heels of $TJX, $WMT & $WSM (plus Mastercard, $JPM, $BAC), $GAP & Ross latest to confirm Q3 acceleration, strong full-price selling & start to Holiday. Old Navy a pointer even lower end not as stressed. Panic over restaurants clearly premature. $MCD $XLY $AMZN $XLF $ROST
November 25, 2025 at 1:21 PM
Best you can do with Best Buy is use it as broader indicator. Acceleration shows US consumer strength & iPhone upside. But still basically managing in category near-impossible to differentiate. Credit to $BBY that they still sport a decent margin. $AMZN $TGT $WMT $XLY
Dicks has been a retail rockstar despite Nike woes. Q shows despite increased disclosure, outlook murkier post Footlocker . Also expenses in core $DKS biz up 2X accelerating sales, though they did guide to some pressure, why even guide ex Footlocker not up much $NKE
Large retailers reporting today: Kohls, Dicks, Best Buy & even A&F look more like $WMT $WSM & $TJX than $TGT or $HD. All saw Q3 sales acceleration at strong selling margin. And most of these do NOT skew to upper end. $XLY $XLF $JPM $BAC $V $AXP $MA
On heels of $TJX, $WMT & $WSM (plus Mastercard, $JPM, $BAC), $GAP & Ross latest to confirm Q3 acceleration, strong full-price selling & start to Holiday. Old Navy a pointer even lower end not as stressed. Panic over restaurants clearly premature. $MCD $XLY $AMZN $XLF $ROST
November 25, 2025 at 1:13 PM
Dicks has been a retail rockstar despite Nike woes. Q shows despite increased disclosure, outlook murkier post Footlocker . Also expenses in core $DKS biz up 2X accelerating sales, though they did guide to some pressure, why even guide ex Footlocker not up much $NKE
Large retailers reporting today: Kohls, Dicks, Best Buy & even A&F look more like $WMT $WSM & $TJX than $TGT or $HD. All saw Q3 sales acceleration at strong selling margin. And most of these do NOT skew to upper end. $XLY $XLF $JPM $BAC $V $AXP $MA
On heels of $TJX, $WMT & $WSM (plus Mastercard, $JPM, $BAC), $GAP & Ross latest to confirm Q3 acceleration, strong full-price selling & start to Holiday. Old Navy a pointer even lower end not as stressed. Panic over restaurants clearly premature. $MCD $XLY $AMZN $XLF $ROST
November 25, 2025 at 1:01 PM
Large retailers reporting today: Kohls, Dicks, Best Buy & even A&F look more like $WMT $WSM & $TJX than $TGT or $HD. All saw Q3 sales acceleration at strong selling margin. And most of these do NOT skew to upper end. $XLY $XLF $JPM $BAC $V $AXP $MA
November 21, 2025 at 4:54 PM
Hard truths ahead of UK Budget from @jburnmurdoch.ft.com @financialtimes.com. Likely to increase burden on top earners but those 'broad shoulders' already live in a country with most progressive tax system in West & have been squeezed most in recent years. ft.com/content/75ce...
November 21, 2025 at 4:50 PM
Hard truths ahead of UK Budget from @jburnmurdoch.ft.com @financialtimes.com. Likely to increase burden on top earners but those 'broad shoulders' already live in a country with most progressive tax system in West & have been squeezed most in recent years. ft.com/content/75ce...
October Swiss watch exports to US plummeted 47%, led by watches priced > $3000. Ex-US, +3% confirming nascent recovery seen at Richemont, led by China. Post new 15% tariff deal, US will pick up once shipments brought in on old tariff rates exhausted $CFRUY $HESAY $LVMUY #luxury
November 21, 2025 at 3:51 PM
October Swiss watch exports to US plummeted 47%, led by watches priced > $3000. Ex-US, +3% confirming nascent recovery seen at Richemont, led by China. Post new 15% tariff deal, US will pick up once shipments brought in on old tariff rates exhausted $CFRUY $HESAY $LVMUY #luxury
Note with this almost all the biggest US retailers have reported for Q ended October plus updated on November-to-date so this vantage point is pretty comprehensive. US retail reports scary early! $WMT $TGT $AMZN $HD $LOW $WSM $TJX $ROST $MCD $XLY $XLF $MA $JPM $BAC
On heels of $TJX, $WMT & $WSM (plus Mastercard, $JPM, $BAC), $GAP & Ross latest to confirm Q3 acceleration, strong full-price selling & start to Holiday. Old Navy a pointer even lower end not as stressed. Panic over restaurants clearly premature. $MCD $XLY $AMZN $XLF $ROST
November 21, 2025 at 2:24 PM
Note with this almost all the biggest US retailers have reported for Q ended October plus updated on November-to-date so this vantage point is pretty comprehensive. US retail reports scary early! $WMT $TGT $AMZN $HD $LOW $WSM $TJX $ROST $MCD $XLY $XLF $MA $JPM $BAC
On heels of $TJX, $WMT & $WSM (plus Mastercard, $JPM, $BAC), $GAP & Ross latest to confirm Q3 acceleration, strong full-price selling & start to Holiday. Old Navy a pointer even lower end not as stressed. Panic over restaurants clearly premature. $MCD $XLY $AMZN $XLF $ROST
November 21, 2025 at 2:19 PM
On heels of $TJX, $WMT & $WSM (plus Mastercard, $JPM, $BAC), $GAP & Ross latest to confirm Q3 acceleration, strong full-price selling & start to Holiday. Old Navy a pointer even lower end not as stressed. Panic over restaurants clearly premature. $MCD $XLY $AMZN $XLF $ROST
Walmart on tariffs: impact lower than expected. Select price increases & growth in areas like fashion offset it. In food only beef seeing pressure. Welcome recent relief on foodstuffs not grown in US with open arms which was clearly moronic. $WMT $AMZN $TGT $XLY $XLI
November 20, 2025 at 7:59 PM
Walmart on tariffs: impact lower than expected. Select price increases & growth in areas like fashion offset it. In food only beef seeing pressure. Welcome recent relief on foodstuffs not grown in US with open arms which was clearly moronic. $WMT $AMZN $TGT $XLY $XLI
Walmart CFO echoes outgoing CEO; expects Q4 to be consistent with YTD. Strong start to Holiday & portents from Back-2-School & other events are good. This is America’s #3 discretionary retailer & #1 retailer overall. $WMT $AMZN $XLY $XLF
November 20, 2025 at 7:46 PM
Walmart CFO echoes outgoing CEO; expects Q4 to be consistent with YTD. Strong start to Holiday & portents from Back-2-School & other events are good. This is America’s #3 discretionary retailer & #1 retailer overall. $WMT $AMZN $XLY $XLF
McMillon going out on high at Walmart & very upbeat. Points to gains across income cohorts with no US deceleration even with some more weakness at lower end. Consistent through Q & strong in discretionary area, advertising & web driving profit. 🔥 $WMT $AMZN $XLY $XLF
November 20, 2025 at 6:52 PM
McMillon going out on high at Walmart & very upbeat. Points to gains across income cohorts with no US deceleration even with some more weakness at lower end. Consistent through Q & strong in discretionary area, advertising & web driving profit. 🔥 $WMT $AMZN $XLY $XLF
Mastercard says US consumer healthy into November. On specific question re lower end, points to consistent trends across board. Data like this won't predict turning points but world a lot steadier than feverish commentator talk. $MA $V $JPM $XLF $XLY $WMT $AMZN $WSM $TJX
November 20, 2025 at 1:50 PM
Mastercard says US consumer healthy into November. On specific question re lower end, points to consistent trends across board. Data like this won't predict turning points but world a lot steadier than feverish commentator talk. $MA $V $JPM $XLF $XLY $WMT $AMZN $WSM $TJX
Ok so $BBWI has a new CEO so he's setting his scene. But anyone else note the cognitive dissonance or frankly even mendacity here. Blame weakness on macro pressures & then list gazillion retail basics to improve that you're currently screwing up 😉
November 20, 2025 at 1:17 PM
Ok so $BBWI has a new CEO so he's setting his scene. But anyone else note the cognitive dissonance or frankly even mendacity here. Blame weakness on macro pressures & then list gazillion retail basics to improve that you're currently screwing up 😉
You can critique Target heavily only because of its better disclosure. But contrast grocery down 1% at $TGT vs +2-3% at $WMT. But discretionary goods at $TGT also fully 500+bp lower, even worse given Walmart sells 2X more discretionary goods by dollars. $AMZN
November 20, 2025 at 1:09 PM
You can critique Target heavily only because of its better disclosure. But contrast grocery down 1% at $TGT vs +2-3% at $WMT. But discretionary goods at $TGT also fully 500+bp lower, even worse given Walmart sells 2X more discretionary goods by dollars. $AMZN
Walmart US comp steady but web accelerated 200bp to +28% (also seen at $AMZN). Web now 21% of $WMT sales vs just 12% in 2022. Quarterly web sales $s now 25% of $AMZN US. Advertising stellar +53%. Spare a thought for Target, under 5% of $AMZN, up only 2%. Awful. 😣 $TGT $XLY $XRT
Walmart knocks it out of park. Reassures on consumer, up across staples & discretionary. Margin up, inventory down 1 to 45 days. Web, advertising both accelerated. Stock is up there but lot to like on $WMT & consumer. $HD, $MCD not signals they looked. $WSM $MA $XLY $XLF
November 20, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Walmart US comp steady but web accelerated 200bp to +28% (also seen at $AMZN). Web now 21% of $WMT sales vs just 12% in 2022. Quarterly web sales $s now 25% of $AMZN US. Advertising stellar +53%. Spare a thought for Target, under 5% of $AMZN, up only 2%. Awful. 😣 $TGT $XLY $XRT