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Rahul Sharma

@retailguru.bsky.social

1.4K followers 36 following 860 posts

Ex Global Consumer Fund Manager: 16 years at Citi, Alliance Capital in NYC, London, Singapore. Founder, Neev Capital. Strictly personal musings & not advice...

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Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 2d

$PEP CEO here lays bare challenges facing foods. Affordability (after huge Covid price rises mind) & online are obvious. But for first time, especially in the US, folks are checking out the miles & miles of lines about ingredients. $XLP $KO $GIS $CPB $KHC $MDLZ

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 2d

Obvious takeaway on Delta is more exposure to higher end vs peers is helping $DAL outperform. But note how much runway there is on corporate. Revenues back to 2019 levels but passenger numbers still only at 70%. $UAL $LUV $XLY $XLF $XLI $MAR $ABNB $AXP

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 2d

Here's Levi's on consumer resilience across globe. This Q marked a full year of high single digit growth, pretty darn good for a mature brand. Despite fears over Europe, business is healthy as it is in US, with strength by category and channel. $LEVI $XLY $XLF $WMT $AMZN $TGT

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 3d

Important to remember as Frito-Lay US continues to falter that Pepsico is a portfolio. International still drove solid numbers at $PEP. But between lapping mega Covid consumption, healthier eating & GLPs, Frito has work cut out even if not as bad as food peers. $KO $GIS $KHC $CPB $XLP

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 3d

$COST in latest reminder of US consumer strength: comp +5% on healthy traffic DESPITE 2 point headwind from hurricane-related buying last year. Non food up high single digit. #CostcoIsACult. $WMT $AMZN $WSM $ULTA $V $MA $AXP $LVMUY $XLY $XLF $XRT

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 3d

Nor is this just rear view mirror stuff. Delta says bookings have accelerated across all lines of business over the past 6 weeks. 💪 $XLI $XLF $XLY $DAL $UAL $AXP $V $MA $MAR $ABNB

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 3d

Delta Q demolishes all bear theses on travel (& so US discretionary economy). Premium at +9% accelerated 4 points vs Q2. Amex 200bp faster at +12%. Corporate +8% vs only low single digit growth in Q2 & outlook strong. Domestic passenger improving $DAL $UAL $AXP $V $MA $XLF $XLY

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 11d

Yes we hear that US tariffs are at record highs daily. But this chart from @FT really brings it home in terms of both quantum and history. 😮

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 11d

There you have it. Nike lowers margin view on tariffs (despite huge tailwind from lapping discounting) & China (15% of sales) overwhelming upside from 85% of rest of world. BTW China also beat forecast this Q! Sandbagging expectations at its finest. 🙄 $NKE $ADDYY $DKS

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 12d

Nike Direct -4% vs -14% in prior Q while wholesale had even bigger positive 14 point swing to +5%. Clearly this $NKE recovery will have $DKS etc playing much bigger role. Inventory also ok. Now onto call where management will once again set bar very very low 🙄 $ADDYY

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 12d

Nike apparel flat vs -12% in prior Q. Sneakers -2% vs -9% in prior Q, including China improvement. Despite tariff hit, US margin up sequentially & steady for past 9 months. In Europe, Asia & China margin improved 300-700bp. In each region $NKE margin c400bp below peak.

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 12d

$NKE margins not great but still better than forecast & at top end of (ridiculous) range. However, Nike brand sales flat/up everywhere bar China. Despite all their sandbagging hard to argue brand is in as deep a hole as it seemed to be in 12 months ago. $ADDYY $DKS

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 12d

Nike apparel flat vs -12% in prior Q. Sneakers -2% vs -9% in prior Q, including China improvement. Despite tariff hit, US margin up sequentially & steady for past 9 months. In Europe, Asia & China margin improved 300-700bp. In each region $NKE margin c400bp below peak.

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 12d

$NKE margins not great but still better than forecast & at top end of (ridiculous) range. However, Nike brand sales flat/up everywhere bar China. Despite all their sandbagging hard to argue brand is in as deep a hole as it seemed to be in 12 months ago. $ADDYY $DKS

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 12d

$NKE following same playbook every Q under Friend. Beat by a mile due to ridiculous guide & then give equally ridiculous guide way below consensus. Ground already laid in comments below despite a return to growth at both Nike brand & US. Not getting rewarded for it. 🙄

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 12d

$NKE margins not great but still better than forecast & at top end of (ridiculous) range. However, Nike brand sales flat/up everywhere bar China. Despite all their sandbagging hard to argue brand is in as deep a hole as it seemed to be in 12 months ago. $ADDYY $DKS

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 12d

$NKE following same playbook every Q under Friend. Beat by a mile due to ridiculous guide & then give equally ridiculous guide way below consensus. Ground already laid in comments below despite a return to growth at both Nike brand & US. Not getting rewarded for it. 🙄

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 12d

$NKE following same playbook every Q under Friend. Beat by a mile due to ridiculous guide & then give equally ridiculous guide way below consensus. Ground already laid in comments below despite a return to growth at both Nike brand & US. Not getting rewarded for it. 🙄

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 13d

Laura Alber predicted this was coming but industry hoped cooler heads would prevail given ground realities & resulting big cost rises that vno player can absorb. Why furniture in his crosshairs given small political crumbs who knows! $WSM $RH $W

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 13d

For all the headlines, Carnival latest to show how unfazed US (& European) consumers are. Yes they skew older with (appreciating) accumulated wealth but strength isn't limited to them as retail reporting showed. $CCL $XLY $XLF $XRT $WMT $AMZN $WSM $BBY $M $DG $AXP $V

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 16d

Cartier has just taken prices up 10% on watches & 6% on jewelry in US only. To cover latest 39% tariffs on Switzerland. So much for foreign businesses eating the cost of tariffs. 😆 #luxury $CFRUY $HESAY $LVMUY $XLF $XLY

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 16d

Someone actually thinks Allison Pearce shoudl be up for an award????

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 22d

You have a nice day too.

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 23d

You’re missing the point completely. These were numbers the BLS revised down as it over-estimated past job creation. Not real people who were laid off. Sorry to hear about your situation

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 23d

This from Darden is a pretty good take. While folks saw big jobs revision down as a disaster, $DRI says those were phantom jobs, so consumer resilience in the real world is not surprising. No change to view. $XLF $XLY $XRT $AMZN $WMT $BBY $WSM $LOW $V $MA

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 23d

From Fedex Q, in words of both a sell-sider & the company. US consumer & small business volume healthy & best pricing in 2 years. $FDX says no sign of pull forward, that $AMZN Prime Week was good for retail & is confident about peak. $UPS $XLY $XRT $XLF $V $MA

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 25d

Plus worth remembering luxury had a huge boom cycle post Covid like all goods. Doom mongers should note that indigestion is part of this too & why for example Cartier & Van Cleef continue to shine while leather suffers. $LVMUY $CFRUY $HESAY $PPRUY

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 25d

Self-serving from Coach (as $TPR is direct beneficiary) but kernel of truth on luxury. Aggressive pricing by many, especially where newness is lacking, has cost them. But ton of this is economic. In Asia, European brands have huge legacy which hasn't gone anywhere. $RL $LVMUY $PPRUY $PRDSY

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 25d

Self-serving from Coach (as $TPR is direct beneficiary) but kernel of truth on luxury. Aggressive pricing by many, especially where newness is lacking, has cost them. But ton of this is economic. In Asia, European brands have huge legacy which hasn't gone anywhere. $RL $LVMUY $PPRUY $PRDSY

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 25d

How much trouble US foods are in? Mills calls -5% organic in line & that investments are ‘paying off’. Meanwhile #1 US grocer, Walmart +4.8% organic & #2 Kroger is +3.8%. Massive share loss in the most stable part of retail. $GIS $KR $WMT $KHC $CPB $MDLZ $XLP

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 26d

And not just the US consumer. $BAC commercial side also strong. US office real estate has been the only segment hitting turbulence & even that has improved this year. $XLF $XLY $XLI $JPM