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Rory Johnston

@roryjohnston.bsky.social

4K followers 270 following 1.6K posts

oil market researcher founder of https://CommodityContext.com former bank economist markets, code, barbecue

CommodityContext.com

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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · Jul 18

🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️

Crude prices and term structure weakened despite a spate of drone attacks on Iraqi Kurdish oilfields and the latest round of EU sanctions against Russia—but diesel still managed to end higher.

Full Report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw29w25

Summary:

Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 1d

this is where the President of the United States announces important policy changes

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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 3d

Currently attempting to write a more general audience summary of where we're currently standing in the oil market and

a man with his eyes closed is wearing a plaid shirt and a blue jacket .

ALT: a man with his eyes closed is wearing a plaid shirt and a blue jacket .

media.tenor.com

Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 3d

a man wearing a sombrero sits at a desk with his feet up and the words i 'll allow it above him

ALT: a man wearing a sombrero sits at a desk with his feet up and the words i 'll allow it above him

media.tenor.com

Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 3d

Keystone XL has become some weird meta-meme in the place of actual progress in Canada's oil industry.

Never built but never fully dead, always there when someone needs it.

a man with gray hair is smoking a pipe in a room and says `` he 's only mostly dead '' .

ALT: a man with gray hair is smoking a pipe in a room and says `` he 's only mostly dead '' .

media.tenor.com

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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 3d

Ha, they've divested the liquids assets—all owned and operated by South Bow now ;)

Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 3d

Interesting—imho, south to the US, doubling down on Canada's current extraordinary market concentration, remains the least strategic (yet typically most "commercial") direction for Canada's next crude oil export pipeline

But it's still better than no pipeline

(Proponent TBD...)

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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 3d

🚨 NEW POST 🚨

Beijing’s Long-Term Oil Problem

Perceptions of China’s structural foreign fuel dependence are driving both the oil market’s biggest support (SPR buying) and heaviest drag (from world-leading to flatlining demand growth)

www.commoditycontext.com/p/beijings-l...

Beijing’s Long-Term Oil Problem

Perceptions of China’s structural foreign fuel dependence are driving both the oil market’s biggest support (SPR buying) and heaviest drag (from world-leading to flatlining Chinese demand growth)

www.commoditycontext.com

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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 4d

wife hung some early Halloween decorations and now they keep setting off my doorbell cam and giving me a heart attack with the notification pic

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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 4d

Why does an obsession with energy insecurity dominate Chinese policymaking?

Exhibit A:

Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 8d

You should all subscribe to this.

Great things to come.

The Dispatch @thedispatchmedia.bsky.social · 8d

⚡️ANNOUNCING DISPATCH ENERGY⚡️

Featuring a rotating roster of contributors who are experts in their respective fields, this new newsletter is included with your membership at no additional cost, thanks to support from Pacific Legal Foundation.

Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 9d

the thing is that when people can't just be normal and cooperate we all end up having less freedom and flexibility in public space

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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 11d

Every month the same

Reuters/Bloomberg: OPEC+ delegates are discussing a ___ kbpd production hike

Official OPEC comms: nonsense! Rumours! Fools!

We don’t discuss things ahead of time, we only speak (think, even!) at the meetings

<Meeting comes, OPEC does exactly the rumour>

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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 14d

Every Friday, I analyze developments in flat crude prices, timespreads, inventories, refined products, and positioning data (including 40-page PDF), as well as a taste of the themes I’ve been thinking about or following closely

Subscribe and check it out:
www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw39w25

Oil Context Weekly (W39)

Mounting geopolitical risk and renewed Russian supply concerns collide with overstretched bearish positioning to spark largest weekly crude price rally since June’s Israel-Iran war.

www.commoditycontext.com

Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 14d

🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️

📈 Mounting geopolitical risk and renewed Russian supply concerns collide with overstretched bearish positioning to spark largest weekly crude price rally since June’s Israel-Iran war.

Summary below, link to full report in replies.

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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 15d

“White men are suddenly back in demand…”

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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 16d

Oh, good, love a mysterious meeting of the *entirety* of US military leadership to cap off a super calm and quiet September…

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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 16d

perceptions of energy insecurity rule everything around me

Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 16d

They were talking about increasing production *by decreasing costs*—that was the whole point.

And no, I don't expect the BBB will have any material impact on the price sensitivity of US oil production.

Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 16d

Most respondents said that the Trump admin's efforts to reduce government regulation have resulted in negligible cost savings.

bsky.app/profile/rory...

Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 17d

Next, a big piece of the Trump's agenda was reg burden cuts for the US oil and gas sector.

Some firms believe that these efforts have made a real difference: ~12% put the cost savings at more than $4/bbl (that's big!)

But more than half have seen <$1/bbl savings (big ol' meh)

Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 16d

I'd recommend reading through the rest of the thread.

Oil (and *especially* gas) demand are still growing, and even if they were flat they'd still require $100s of billions in capex to maintain flat supply.

No doubt the growth outlook range has worsened, but let's remain realistic.

Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 17d

Ok, we can keep going but you get the idea

Uncertainty is high and policy not perceived as especially supportive

But it seems like the US oil patch doesn't see the market getting worse, only better—we'll soon see!

Check out the full survey results here:
www.dallasfed.org/research/sur...

Oil and gas activity slips again on elevated uncertainty, higher costs

Activity in the oil and gas sector declined slightly in the third quarter of 2025, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

www.dallasfed.org

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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 17d

Oof, especially damning comment on the effect of tariffs as US firms try to pick up the slack.

Not sure we want pipeline quality assurance issues...

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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 17d

US oilfield service sector: "Right now we are bleeding"

Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 17d

Holy 🔥

"The US shale business is broken.

What was once the world's most dynamic energy engine has been gutted by political hostility and economic ignorance"

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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 17d

"Those who can are running for the exits"

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