Rory Johnston
@roryjohnston.bsky.social
oil market researcher
founder of https://CommodityContext.com
former bank economist
markets, code, barbecue
founder of https://CommodityContext.com
former bank economist
markets, code, barbecue
Pinned
🚨 NEW POST 🚨
𝗖𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗱𝗮'𝘀 𝗭𝗼𝗺𝗯𝗶𝗲 𝗣𝗶𝗽𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲
Like a zombie, Keystone XL just won’t die; the pipeline is simply too symbolically important to ‘rest in peace’, but even in theory it’s a mixed bag for Canada versus the alternatives.
Read the full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/canadas-zo...
𝗖𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗱𝗮'𝘀 𝗭𝗼𝗺𝗯𝗶𝗲 𝗣𝗶𝗽𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲
Like a zombie, Keystone XL just won’t die; the pipeline is simply too symbolically important to ‘rest in peace’, but even in theory it’s a mixed bag for Canada versus the alternatives.
Read the full report: www.commoditycontext.com/p/canadas-zo...
Trump on the prospective peace deal.
More or less a Trump-language restatement of the Press Sec Tweet from earlier today.
Progress... details... we'll see.
More or less a Trump-language restatement of the Press Sec Tweet from earlier today.
Progress... details... we'll see.
November 25, 2025 at 7:42 PM
Trump on the prospective peace deal.
More or less a Trump-language restatement of the Press Sec Tweet from earlier today.
Progress... details... we'll see.
More or less a Trump-language restatement of the Press Sec Tweet from earlier today.
Progress... details... we'll see.
🐂 A Ukraine-Russia peace deal is bullish [Urals] crude prices.
🐻 A Ukraine-Russia peace deal is bearish [Non-Urals] crude prices.
Hope that helps.
🐻 A Ukraine-Russia peace deal is bearish [Non-Urals] crude prices.
Hope that helps.
November 25, 2025 at 5:23 PM
🐂 A Ukraine-Russia peace deal is bullish [Urals] crude prices.
🐻 A Ukraine-Russia peace deal is bearish [Non-Urals] crude prices.
Hope that helps.
🐻 A Ukraine-Russia peace deal is bearish [Non-Urals] crude prices.
Hope that helps.
Didn't realized this needed to be said but...
...a Russia-Ukraine peace deal (if signed, which remains a big if!) is, in fact, a bearish development for oil prices
...a Russia-Ukraine peace deal (if signed, which remains a big if!) is, in fact, a bearish development for oil prices
November 25, 2025 at 2:39 PM
Didn't realized this needed to be said but...
...a Russia-Ukraine peace deal (if signed, which remains a big if!) is, in fact, a bearish development for oil prices
...a Russia-Ukraine peace deal (if signed, which remains a big if!) is, in fact, a bearish development for oil prices
Middle distillate crack spreads (white NYMEX diesel, blue ICE gasoil) continue to fall back on this morning's Ukraine deal speculation.
November 25, 2025 at 2:29 PM
Middle distillate crack spreads (white NYMEX diesel, blue ICE gasoil) continue to fall back on this morning's Ukraine deal speculation.
Ukraine peace deal speculation-driven oil price rout still entirely a paper sentiment phenomenon.
Brent crude prompt timespreads, which reflect actual near-term market tightness, have risen through the week and ain't budging yet.
Phys oil not yet buying the deal.
Brent crude prompt timespreads, which reflect actual near-term market tightness, have risen through the week and ain't budging yet.
Phys oil not yet buying the deal.
November 25, 2025 at 2:08 PM
Ukraine peace deal speculation-driven oil price rout still entirely a paper sentiment phenomenon.
Brent crude prompt timespreads, which reflect actual near-term market tightness, have risen through the week and ain't budging yet.
Phys oil not yet buying the deal.
Brent crude prompt timespreads, which reflect actual near-term market tightness, have risen through the week and ain't budging yet.
Phys oil not yet buying the deal.
The bullish crude counterpunch here would come if Trump thought he had finally reached a deal Kyiv could live with and then Moscow walked away again.
That'd make Trump real mad, and a mad Trump would mean more sanctions and a green-er light for Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil.
(via FT)
That'd make Trump real mad, and a mad Trump would mean more sanctions and a green-er light for Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil.
(via FT)
November 25, 2025 at 1:25 PM
The bullish crude counterpunch here would come if Trump thought he had finally reached a deal Kyiv could live with and then Moscow walked away again.
That'd make Trump real mad, and a mad Trump would mean more sanctions and a green-er light for Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil.
(via FT)
That'd make Trump real mad, and a mad Trump would mean more sanctions and a green-er light for Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil.
(via FT)
This is just the crude price reaction appetizer.
Already recovering a bit (back at $63.35), and the market will be waiting for 1) confirmation from the Ukrainian side (of course US officials are going to be optimistic about Kyiv accepting terms), and 2) details, details, details
Already recovering a bit (back at $63.35), and the market will be waiting for 1) confirmation from the Ukrainian side (of course US officials are going to be optimistic about Kyiv accepting terms), and 2) details, details, details
** US official says Ukrainian delegation has agreed with US on terms of potential peace deal: ABC
Crude drops sharply, Brent < $62
Crude drops sharply, Brent < $62
November 25, 2025 at 1:12 PM
This is just the crude price reaction appetizer.
Already recovering a bit (back at $63.35), and the market will be waiting for 1) confirmation from the Ukrainian side (of course US officials are going to be optimistic about Kyiv accepting terms), and 2) details, details, details
Already recovering a bit (back at $63.35), and the market will be waiting for 1) confirmation from the Ukrainian side (of course US officials are going to be optimistic about Kyiv accepting terms), and 2) details, details, details
** US official says Ukrainian delegation has agreed with US on terms of potential peace deal: ABC
Crude drops sharply, Brent < $62
Crude drops sharply, Brent < $62
November 25, 2025 at 12:58 PM
** US official says Ukrainian delegation has agreed with US on terms of potential peace deal: ABC
Crude drops sharply, Brent < $62
Crude drops sharply, Brent < $62
Permabearish commodity $ arguments that hinge on worsening demographics (and thus lower demand) as fate are equally flawed as permabullish arguments based on worsening geologic quality.
We can produce more with worse geology via better tech and we can consume more with fewer, richer people.
We can produce more with worse geology via better tech and we can consume more with fewer, richer people.
a woman says they 're the same picture while sitting in front of a window
ALT: a woman says they 're the same picture while sitting in front of a window
media.tenor.com
November 25, 2025 at 12:25 AM
Permabearish commodity $ arguments that hinge on worsening demographics (and thus lower demand) as fate are equally flawed as permabullish arguments based on worsening geologic quality.
We can produce more with worse geology via better tech and we can consume more with fewer, richer people.
We can produce more with worse geology via better tech and we can consume more with fewer, richer people.
"President Trump has told his advisers he's planning to speak directly with Nicolas Maduro, even as the U.S. designated the Venezuela president Monday as the head of a terrorist organization, administration officials tell Axios."
November 24, 2025 at 10:11 PM
"President Trump has told his advisers he's planning to speak directly with Nicolas Maduro, even as the U.S. designated the Venezuela president Monday as the head of a terrorist organization, administration officials tell Axios."
quick trick to make Adobe immediately better
November 24, 2025 at 5:26 PM
quick trick to make Adobe immediately better
So, you're bullish oil because currently low prices don't support US oil production growth?
But you don't think that those higher prices will then stimulate more US production growth?
But you don't think that those higher prices will then stimulate more US production growth?
a cartoon character says isn 't that neat and consistent
ALT: a cartoon character says isn 't that neat and consistent
media.tenor.com
November 24, 2025 at 4:19 PM
So, you're bullish oil because currently low prices don't support US oil production growth?
But you don't think that those higher prices will then stimulate more US production growth?
But you don't think that those higher prices will then stimulate more US production growth?
How much of diesel market tightness is jet fuel demand?
two men in suits and ties are standing next to each other
ALT: two men in suits and ties are standing next to each other
media.tenor.com
November 24, 2025 at 2:29 PM
How much of diesel market tightness is jet fuel demand?
Middle distillate markets continue to cool off at a brisk pace from their recent surge.
(Crack spreads vs Brent: white NYMEX diesel, blue ICE gasoil)
(Crack spreads vs Brent: white NYMEX diesel, blue ICE gasoil)
November 24, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Middle distillate markets continue to cool off at a brisk pace from their recent surge.
(Crack spreads vs Brent: white NYMEX diesel, blue ICE gasoil)
(Crack spreads vs Brent: white NYMEX diesel, blue ICE gasoil)
it's funny how controversial this tweet proved on the other website
"prices are driven by supply and demand" is now ragebait
"prices are driven by supply and demand" is now ragebait
November 24, 2025 at 1:41 PM
it's funny how controversial this tweet proved on the other website
"prices are driven by supply and demand" is now ragebait
"prices are driven by supply and demand" is now ragebait
Many people count plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) as effectively battery electric vehicle (BEV) equivalent when considering fuel demand destruction.
That seems like an increasingly fraught assumption:
That seems like an increasingly fraught assumption:
November 23, 2025 at 5:36 PM
Many people count plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) as effectively battery electric vehicle (BEV) equivalent when considering fuel demand destruction.
That seems like an increasingly fraught assumption:
That seems like an increasingly fraught assumption:
Trend oil prices* are driven by supply and demand.
When they eventually rise (and they will), it’ll be because prices reached a low enough level to stunt supply and/or juice demand—that’s the ballgame.
*shorter-term gyrations are flows driven, but they oscillate around said trend.
When they eventually rise (and they will), it’ll be because prices reached a low enough level to stunt supply and/or juice demand—that’s the ballgame.
*shorter-term gyrations are flows driven, but they oscillate around said trend.
November 22, 2025 at 7:35 PM
Trend oil prices* are driven by supply and demand.
When they eventually rise (and they will), it’ll be because prices reached a low enough level to stunt supply and/or juice demand—that’s the ballgame.
*shorter-term gyrations are flows driven, but they oscillate around said trend.
When they eventually rise (and they will), it’ll be because prices reached a low enough level to stunt supply and/or juice demand—that’s the ballgame.
*shorter-term gyrations are flows driven, but they oscillate around said trend.
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️
Crude prices eased on broader market pullback and concerns that US-proposed Ukraine peace deal removes key remaining bullish market support; diesel margins hit eye-watering levels before rolling over
Summary below, full report in reply.
Crude prices eased on broader market pullback and concerns that US-proposed Ukraine peace deal removes key remaining bullish market support; diesel margins hit eye-watering levels before rolling over
Summary below, full report in reply.
November 21, 2025 at 9:43 PM
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️
Crude prices eased on broader market pullback and concerns that US-proposed Ukraine peace deal removes key remaining bullish market support; diesel margins hit eye-watering levels before rolling over
Summary below, full report in reply.
Crude prices eased on broader market pullback and concerns that US-proposed Ukraine peace deal removes key remaining bullish market support; diesel margins hit eye-watering levels before rolling over
Summary below, full report in reply.
Me, painstakingly georeferencing regulator maps and manually tracing pipeline paths.
Them, posting an AI-generated map that puts Kitimat on Vancouver Island, Burnaby somewhere in Oregon, and Saint John somewhere in Virginia.
(h/t @aleach.ca)
Them, posting an AI-generated map that puts Kitimat on Vancouver Island, Burnaby somewhere in Oregon, and Saint John somewhere in Virginia.
(h/t @aleach.ca)
November 21, 2025 at 7:11 PM
Me, painstakingly georeferencing regulator maps and manually tracing pipeline paths.
Them, posting an AI-generated map that puts Kitimat on Vancouver Island, Burnaby somewhere in Oregon, and Saint John somewhere in Virginia.
(h/t @aleach.ca)
Them, posting an AI-generated map that puts Kitimat on Vancouver Island, Burnaby somewhere in Oregon, and Saint John somewhere in Virginia.
(h/t @aleach.ca)
I have a lot of sympathy for public data providers, but even under the most charitable interpretation it's difficult to understand who exactly this lagged chronological release schedule helps.
Very open to feedback on this: anyone have any guesses? Who is this for?
Very open to feedback on this: anyone have any guesses? Who is this for?
Writing up the revised post-shutdown CFTC Commitments of Traders publication schedule, holding back the tears
Won't be back on track getting useful CFTC CoT data until the end of January
TWO FULL MONTHS
JUST RELEASE ALL THE DELAYED DATA AT ONCE DAMMIT
Won't be back on track getting useful CFTC CoT data until the end of January
TWO FULL MONTHS
JUST RELEASE ALL THE DELAYED DATA AT ONCE DAMMIT
November 21, 2025 at 5:44 PM
I have a lot of sympathy for public data providers, but even under the most charitable interpretation it's difficult to understand who exactly this lagged chronological release schedule helps.
Very open to feedback on this: anyone have any guesses? Who is this for?
Very open to feedback on this: anyone have any guesses? Who is this for?
Writing up the revised post-shutdown CFTC Commitments of Traders publication schedule, holding back the tears
Won't be back on track getting useful CFTC CoT data until the end of January
TWO FULL MONTHS
JUST RELEASE ALL THE DELAYED DATA AT ONCE DAMMIT
Won't be back on track getting useful CFTC CoT data until the end of January
TWO FULL MONTHS
JUST RELEASE ALL THE DELAYED DATA AT ONCE DAMMIT
November 21, 2025 at 5:44 PM
Writing up the revised post-shutdown CFTC Commitments of Traders publication schedule, holding back the tears
Won't be back on track getting useful CFTC CoT data until the end of January
TWO FULL MONTHS
JUST RELEASE ALL THE DELAYED DATA AT ONCE DAMMIT
Won't be back on track getting useful CFTC CoT data until the end of January
TWO FULL MONTHS
JUST RELEASE ALL THE DELAYED DATA AT ONCE DAMMIT
Interesting BBG graphic on the build-up of oil on water between the end of August and the end of October.
And love to see—as is emerging best practice—the comp between tanker tracker data vendors.
And love to see—as is emerging best practice—the comp between tanker tracker data vendors.
November 19, 2025 at 6:36 PM
Interesting BBG graphic on the build-up of oil on water between the end of August and the end of October.
And love to see—as is emerging best practice—the comp between tanker tracker data vendors.
And love to see—as is emerging best practice—the comp between tanker tracker data vendors.
Oh hey look at that.
All oil hot takes are now BlueSky verified real talk.
All oil hot takes are now BlueSky verified real talk.
November 19, 2025 at 3:19 PM
Oh hey look at that.
All oil hot takes are now BlueSky verified real talk.
All oil hot takes are now BlueSky verified real talk.